This document summarizes trends in Chinese overseas investment and opportunities and challenges. It finds that Chinese investors are diversifying into consumer areas like education and real estate in countries like the US and Australia. Long-term, real estate and services are a focus, less so resources. Recent investments have shifted toward developed Western countries and away from resource-focused nations. Analysis of major cross-border deals from 2015-2016 shows the top sectors as energy, real estate, and technology, and the top countries as the US, Australia, and the UK. Real estate markets in cities like New York and San Francisco are described as facing challenges with high prices. Private equity funds have more capital than ever at high valuations, creating risks in an environment

1. 1
2016 盘贝网
发布展示

2. I. 中国海外投资趋势
II. 市场、机遇、挑战
大纲
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3. 3
中国海外投资趋势

4. 4
多样性需求带动财富增长

5. - 中国投资者在美购房平均房价
80万美元.
- 70% 购房者由现金支付全款
5
海外投资: 教育、签证身份以及房地产

6. Value added investment growth in consumer focused areas.
6
长期来看，地产与服务业是中国企业的投资焦点，
资源投资相比较少

7. We see a decline in industrialization and less need for resource-laden investment
and a shift into safe haven regions that focus on infrastructure development.
7
近年来，中国企业更热衷投资西方国家，减少
在资源产业国的投资。

8. 8
Year Month Investor Quantity Transaction Party Subsector Country
2016 June Tencent 8600 Supercell Finland
2015 June ChemChina and SAFE 7860 Pirelli Autos Italy
2016 March Anbang 6500 Blackstone USA
2016 February HNA 6000 Ingram Micro USA
2016 January Haier 5400 General Electric Consumer USA
2015 December Three Gorges 3660 Brazil Govt Hydro Brazil
2016 January Dalian Wanda 3500 Legendary Entertainment USA
2016 April Zhuhai Seine Technology and Legend 3400 Lexmark USA
2015 July HNA 2810 Swissport International Aviation Switzerland
2016 June CIC and Wise Road Capital 2750 NXP Semi Netherlands
2016 May China Molybdenum 2650 Tenke Fungurume Copper Congo
2015 September HNA 2640 Avolon Aviation Ireland
2015 November China General Nuclear 2300 Edra Malaysia
2015 July China Minsheng Investment 2200 Sirius International Insurance Sweden
2015 December State Power Investment 2200 Pacific Hydro Hydro Australia
2016 April Zhuhai Zhenrong 2100 Myanmar Government Oil Myanmar
2016 June Shandong Heavy 2100 DH Services Autos Luxembourg
2016 March China Railway Engineering 2010 Greenfield Development Rail Malaysia
2016 April HNA 2010 Carlson Hotels USA
2015 October ICBC 2000 Petrobras Oil Brazil
2015年6月至2016年6月二十大跨国并购案例

9. 9
跨国并购案例分析（按类别、国别）
Sector Count Country Count
Energy 18.0% USA 24.23%
Real Estate 16.5% Australia 10.82%
Technology 15.5% Britain 8.76%
Transport 12.9% Germany 5.15%
Other 8.8% India 4.12%
Entertainment 6.7% France 3.61%
Finance 6.7% Brazil 3.61%
Tourism 6.7% Italy 3.09%
Agriculture 5.2% Russian Federation 2.58%
Metals 1.5% Canada 2.58%
Utilities 1.0% Singapore 2.06%
Chemicals 0.5% Switzerland 1.55%

10. 10
海外地产商业投资分析（按州别，房产类别）

11. 11
中国海外投资风险回报评估
Source: Asia Society

12. 12
市场、机遇、挑战

13. - EBITDA multiples are at 10x and has eclipsed crisis high
- Unrealized value has increased every year
- Dry Powder has increased since 2013
- Steady increase in the number of fundraisings
- Q1 aggregate target capital has increased since 2014 13
私募股权：更多基金，更多资金 - 以更高的估值购买资产

14. - Cash balances have been growing significantly over past 10 years
- EBITDA and cash as a percentage of debt have both fallen in recent years
14
公司闲置资金未流入资本市场

15. 地产行业
● 房地产利率上限历史新低，房地产价格增幅加大
● Commercial real estate cap rate as of Sept. 1 was 5.25%, and the previous all-time low was at the
last height of the real estate market at in 2007 at 5.65%.
● 这并不代表房地产价格到达顶峰
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16. 16
纽约以及旧金山房地产价格走势
San Francisco, CA
Real Estate Market
New York City
Real Estate Market
“New York City is a disaster, San Francisco is weak in Rents”
- Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital 9/15/16

17. 房地产投资基金数量和资本量到达历史高点
● North America has the most closed-end
PERE funds in the world
● Over half of the capital raised in Q1 2016 is
in N. America
● Strong demand for
European real estate
○ Surpassed N.
America as
preferred
investment region
● 9% decrease in N.
American region
● 15% increase in Europe
● Interest increased by 10% in
value-added approach
● Core strategy decreased by 15%
● Funds focused on N.
America have 58% of all
capital available
● Grown by 30% since
December 2014
○ Indicates real
estate may be
overpriced
● Dry Powder in N. America
is over $130B with
Europe at $59B
● Total Dry Powder at
$230B
○ All-time high 17

18. 18
美国股市：标普市盈率近5年翻了两倍，达历史高点

19. 市场上资金充裕同时资产价格很高
这是一个被“干火药”覆盖的世界
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20. “Size is the enemy of performance”
“头寸大小是投资表现的敌人”
- David Swensen 大卫·斯文森
Chief Investment Officer of Yale Investment Office
耶鲁大学投资办 首席投资官
More eloquently said by The (Rapper) Notorious
B.I.G…
“The Notorious B.I.G.”（美国著名说唱歌手）有句更精辟的话...
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21. 21
钱越多，麻烦越多
麻烦
钱

22. 大量资金
回报
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23. 什么投资便宜？
失宠的投资:
● 发展中市场 (股份 & 债券)
● 商品 (股份, 债券, 实际商品)
● 尾部风险保护 (美国市场波动性已接近历史低点)
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