Visualizing inference
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'Seeing Meaning in the age of Big Data' Probabilistic modeling and machine learning touches every industry. Extracting meaning from data allows better user interaction, finds patterns that would otherwise be obscured using traditional BI reporting, and leads to defensible decision making.
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Visualizing inference
- 1. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Visualizing Inference Seeing Meaning in the Age of Big Data Alex Morrise October 9, 2014
- 2. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary 1 Big Data meets Machine Learning 2 Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization 3 Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies 4 Summary
- 3. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary “Machine Learning is the antidote to having to write down billions of business rules” Machine Learning Uses Include: User Personalization
- 4. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary “Machine Learning is the antidote to having to write down billions of business rules” Machine Learning Uses Include: User Personalization Finding Predictors to a given Objective (Revenue, Churn, Volatility, Moods, Sentiment, Market Cap, Stocks, Biomedical, Risk Assessment, etc)
- 5. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary “Machine Learning is the antidote to having to write down billions of business rules” Machine Learning Uses Include: User Personalization Finding Predictors to a given Objective (Revenue, Churn, Volatility, Moods, Sentiment, Market Cap, Stocks, Biomedical, Risk Assessment, etc) Fraud Detection (Purchases, Identity Thief, Health Insurance, Governments)
- 6. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary “Machine Learning is the antidote to having to write down billions of business rules” Machine Learning Uses Include: User Personalization Finding Predictors to a given Objective (Revenue, Churn, Volatility, Moods, Sentiment, Market Cap, Stocks, Biomedical, Risk Assessment, etc) Fraud Detection (Purchases, Identity Thief, Health Insurance, Governments) Optimizing Decision Flows (Shipping, Markets, Robotics, Database Migrations, Team resource allocation and management, etc...)
- 7. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary “Machine Learning is the antidote to having to write down billions of business rules” Machine Learning Uses Include: User Personalization Finding Predictors to a given Objective (Revenue, Churn, Volatility, Moods, Sentiment, Market Cap, Stocks, Biomedical, Risk Assessment, etc) Fraud Detection (Purchases, Identity Thief, Health Insurance, Governments) Optimizing Decision Flows (Shipping, Markets, Robotics, Database Migrations, Team resource allocation and management, etc...) Key Take Away Every Industry is Touched by Machine Learning
- 8. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Companies are being inundated with data: User Behavioral Data/Click Stream (purchases, views, engagement, interests)
- 9. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Companies are being inundated with data: User Behavioral Data/Click Stream (purchases, views, engagement, interests) Sensor Data (Internet of Things, smart meters, construction, management)
- 10. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Companies are being inundated with data: User Behavioral Data/Click Stream (purchases, views, engagement, interests) Sensor Data (Internet of Things, smart meters, construction, management) B2B (SaaS management tools across all industries, Salesforce, etc)
- 11. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Companies are being inundated with data: User Behavioral Data/Click Stream (purchases, views, engagement, interests) Sensor Data (Internet of Things, smart meters, construction, management) B2B (SaaS management tools across all industries, Salesforce, etc) B2C (Uber, Netflix, google)
- 12. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Companies are being inundated with data. They all have one thing in common. They want a way to capitalize on the real meaning behind the data. Bayesian methods allow the discovery of the latent properties in data, while assessing our confidence in the models certainty/ignorance. Hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, confidence intervals, etc..
- 13. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Why do businesses need Machine Learning/Data Science? They have plenty of data to train expert systems
- 14. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Why do businesses need Machine Learning/Data Science? They have plenty of data to train expert systems Traditional BI may not be able to find the correct patterns
- 15. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Why do businesses need Machine Learning/Data Science? They have plenty of data to train expert systems Traditional BI may not be able to find the correct patterns Shifting focus from traditional 20th century business objectives, companies need to convert their value propositions into technological currency.
- 16. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business value of Machine Learning and Data Science? Why do businesses need Machine Learning/Data Science? They have plenty of data to train expert systems Traditional BI may not be able to find the correct patterns Shifting focus from traditional 20th century business objectives, companies need to convert their value propositions into technological currency. Users & Businesses are sophisticated and want intelligence in their applications
- 17. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business Value of BI? Traditional BI tools and methods (Tableaux, Splunk, etc), are amazing, sophisticated and potentially misleading Example: Splitting demographic data into seemingly good piles and running aggregating reporting over those splits.
- 18. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business Value of BI? Traditional BI tools and methods (Tableaux, Splunk, etc), are amazing, sophisticated and potentially misleading Example: Splitting demographic data into seemingly good piles and running aggregating reporting over those splits. Wonderful if you want to know what women ages 24-26 are purchasing in Los Angeles this month.
- 19. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary What is the Business Value of BI? Traditional BI tools and methods (Tableaux, Splunk, etc), are amazing, sophisticated and potentially misleading Example: Splitting demographic data into seemingly good piles and running aggregating reporting over those splits. Wonderful if you want to know what women ages 24-26 are purchasing in Los Angeles this month. What about Behavior?
- 20. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Businesses want Automatic Action Finding Behavior in a Automatic Actionable Way Finding Behavior requires leveraging the power of machine learning to tease out the meaning behind the observations in a crowd sourced way.
- 21. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Businesses want Automatic Action Finding Behavior in a Automatic Actionable Way Finding Behavior requires leveraging the power of machine learning to tease out the meaning behind the observations in a crowd sourced way. Bayesian methods such as Factorizations, Hierarchical Clustering, and other Topic models, extract meaning from the data.
- 22. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Businesses want Automatic Action Finding Behavior in a Automatic Actionable Way Finding Behavior requires leveraging the power of machine learning to tease out the meaning behind the observations in a crowd sourced way. Bayesian methods such as Factorizations, Hierarchical Clustering, and other Topic models, extract meaning from the data. Once model is fit, observations of Behavior connect to Actions in the system (API), yielding an automatic intelligent way to process information and transactions.
- 23. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Disclaimer: Value of ML? Let’s be Honest: ML can also lead to misleading results when used in the wrong hands: Running a Decision Tree on demographic data could likely split the population by M/F right off the bat.
- 24. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Disclaimer: Value of ML? Let’s be Honest: ML can also lead to misleading results when used in the wrong hands: Running a Decision Tree on demographic data could likely split the population by M/F right off the bat. This split will lead to misleading results as it tries to explaining the objective.
- 25. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Disclaimer: Value of ML? Let’s be Honest: ML can also lead to misleading results when used in the wrong hands: Running a Decision Tree on demographic data could likely split the population by M/F right off the bat. This split will lead to misleading results as it tries to explaining the objective. Know your ML tool belt, practice makes perfect, and treat the job as science (tests, validation, parameter search, research, etc).
- 26. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Disclaimer: Value of ML? Let’s be Honest: ML can also lead to misleading results when used in the wrong hands: Running a Decision Tree on demographic data could likely split the population by M/F right off the bat. This split will lead to misleading results as it tries to explaining the objective. Know your ML tool belt, practice makes perfect, and treat the job as science (tests, validation, parameter search, research, etc). Answer: Use a Random Forest instead.
- 27. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary ML is BI Example: The Retail Vertical BI reporting can be good for detecting aggregate trends but fails to personalize.
- 28. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary ML is BI Example: The Retail Vertical BI reporting can be good for detecting aggregate trends but fails to personalize. Personalization can find aggregate trends and solve the question, “What are the 3 shoes you are highly likely to engage and ultimately purchase, given your (sparse) purchase history, time of year, demographic information, etc”
- 29. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Intermission We’ve stated use cases for ML Business will capitalize on including ML in their stack. Let’s move on to see how we see the meaning behind the data?
- 30. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Machine Learning in it’s Infancy
- 31. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Visualizing Inference To see the latent properties in your data, construct a Graph G as follows Form your data matrix M
- 32. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Visualizing Inference To see the latent properties in your data, construct a Graph G as follows Form your data matrix M Factor it using your favorite algorithm, M = WH
- 33. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Visualizing Inference To see the latent properties in your data, construct a Graph G as follows Form your data matrix M Factor it using your favorite algorithm, M = WH Cluster in W and Ht
- 34. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Visualizing Inference To see the latent properties in your data, construct a Graph G as follows Form your data matrix M Factor it using your favorite algorithm, M = WH Cluster in W and Ht Use the cluster assignments (or some similarity metric on factors) to make graph G.
- 35. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary 8tracks.com, the Best Music Service on Planet Earth
- 36. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary 8tracks.com
- 37. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary 8tracks.com
- 38. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary 8tracks.com
- 39. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Boomtrain.com Boomtrain.com uses machine learning to inform decisions. Boomtrain offers an end to end solution using, in part, a real time novel view into the user base of a given company. By learning Users Proclivity to a set of Topics User Archetypes Users Derived Meta-Properties Boomtrain.com exposes this knowledge in an actionable framework, allowing clients to drive engagement and retention.
- 40. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Boomtrain.com
- 41. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Quid.com (Assessing metrics in Technology and Innovation) IdleGames.com (Behavior as Predictor of Demographic and Monetization) BeatsMusic.com (Contextualized Music Recommendation – Understanding the Heart of the Music)
- 42. Visualizing Inference Alex Morrise Outline Big Data meets Machine Learning Machine Learning Pros and Cons What is Business Value of ML? ML vs. BI ML disclaimer Personalization Visualizing Inference ML Infancy Cases Studies Summary Machine Learning is the Future We are just at the onset of a radical transformation in the way we do, and see, everything Every business is transforming into a technology company They all need intelligence powering their core offerings Finding better ways to see the meaning behind the data will drive each of those offerings.