This document discusses strategies for using armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) during the conflict in northern Mali. It outlines plans for a siege of Gao using AFVs from Mali, Niger and Algeria alongside humanitarian support. It acknowledges that the actual operations incorporated elements of this plan but differed in places and timing due to the uncertainties of war. France's rapid response after Mali requested assistance is noted as exploiting their ability to project air and ground forces into the region on short notice. The document also estimates reconstruction costs for Mali ranging from €1-3 billion.

1. GAO STRATEGY- USED OF
ARMOURED FIGHTING
VEHICLES (AFVS)
BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH
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2. Indicator for crisis
Are members of a community willing to
act -regulation, policy, Evidence based
Total recovery (physically fit and
mentally fit)- assets, livlyhood
properties, wellbeing
Administration are they engaged -willing
and an attitude- Emergency planning,
resouce allocation
Level Lowest degree
Uppermost degreeGoal
archievement
Not
over-
reacting
Is there an hybrid organization between
the top and the bottom of the
organizations -consultant, diplomate....
Operational, task force, managers
work teams
EWS – MEDIA – JOURNALIST- VIRTUAL ENTITIES
CRISIS
ORGANIZATION
BIRD Gao Strategy 2013 Source: author
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3. T1
T2
Quick
phase
Quick
phase
Intermediate phase
Last phase
K (equilibrium)
ToT*
1a1'a 1b1'b2'b 2a 1a1'b
3a 3'a3'a
3'b 3''b
External+ External –
Internal + Internal –
(A)
(B)
(C)
3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BIRD Gao Strategy 2013 Source: author
B U S I N E S S I N N O V A T I O N R E S E A R C H
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4. 1- Strategic Analysis of the balance of forces (A)
2- Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) (C)
2a- International stakeholder regulation
2b- The regional intervention
– Communty resilience
B) Role of investment in post recovery operation-engaging
toward change: B-- → B+
K
3'b
3''b
Costs of
inaction
Maximum
Minimum
(gains:
development)
Average – Terrorism
Investment
For occupying Mali
Cost = 0
(losses: Costs
increase)
Southern costs
Efforts made
War costs
Northern
Costs
Assistance
To the North
€1 billion
(Diouncoude Traoure
assessment) - including
Kidale-
1a
1'b Without Kidale
Mali
Cost for Serval
intervention -who
pays (is it incuded
in the € 3billions
BIRD Gao Strategy 2013 Source: author
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5. Tsunami South
East Asia 2005,
Dec. 24
7
Costs of recovery
and reconstruction
($ billions)
Assets,
recovery &
reconstruction
Haiti earthquake
11 Jan. 2011
300,000
deads, losses
of properties,
livelihoods
(Over
estimates)
13
Under
estimates
10(Actual)
A
B
C
Mali
(predicted)
A'
C'
Currency Exchange
rate €1 = $ 1.3
1.3
Diouncouda
Traoure
3.9
Bruxelles
Donors C'
A'
Mali
(actual)
D
BIRD Gao Strategy 2013
Source: author
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6. turet
armoured
AFV: Armoured Fighting Vehicle
Seriously
willing to
engage in the
battlefield
Importance of armours
according to role and
the direction of atttack
No armour:
reconnaissance vehicule
Generic Model of AFV
WheelsTracker
weaponery
No weaponery → reconnaissance
Machine gun → self-defence
Heavy gun → engagement
Sketch of a AFV, vehicule capable
of ambitious operations (adapted
drawning from wikipedia)
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BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT

7. Niger River
Siege of
Gao with
AFVs
Mali
troops
Niger
troops
Algerian
troops
AFVs
penetrations
(lights)
Siege
of Gao
(AFVs
normal
with turets
and guns
Niger
Mali
Algeria
Humanitarians
(for basic
needs during
the siege and
for surrenders)
Organization of the siege of GAO with
AFVs penetrations and humanitarian
service for surrendering and access to
basic needs for the free/fred civilians
(on the information I had given by French
media)
Motivation of the GAO strategy and the use of AFVs
The Known factors- what was planned- the freedom
of cities would rely on African armies themselves
France would ensure the logistic -and not direct
intervention
The real operations were based on Serval
Operation (France) and the use of Aircraft and
infantry– The logistic was ensured by USA or
Bruxelles/Belgium
KNOWNS (In the media-before the war) UNKNOWNS by the media
BIRD GAO Strategy 2013 Source: author
BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH
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8. BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT
In fact, the same elements of my strategies were combining with Serval operations,
but in different places and a different timeline.
The difference came from the fact, I knew war is the kingdom of uncertainties (20%
known and 80% unknowns)
The war according to the media, took everybody by surprise- the day before the
intervention in Mali and Serval nobody imagined terrorist would attempt to go to
Bamako- Media siad that President Holland called it a characterized aggression -it
needed 24 hours for Mali Transition president to call France for military assistance in
the Framework of UN
Sept-2012
Ban Khi Moon and UN
resolution on Mali for
ousting the terrorist and
reunifyin gNorth and South-
(Mali National Integrity
resolution)
North Mali
Occupatio
n by
terrorist
groups
Feb.
2012
UN implementation of the
rsolution in Oct 2013
Issues:
+ training of Mali roops
+ enrol African Armies
+ weather conditions
(intervention would be during
the summer/after the rainy
seasons)
Oct. 2013
11 Feb. 2013:
terrorist
aggression
12 Feb. 2013
France and
Serval
intervention
P S
L C
A E
N N
N A
E R
D I
O
ACTUAL DATA, WHICH CHANGED THE STRATEGY
BIRD GAO Strategy 2013 Source: author

9. The compromise, which has been made to win the war
Renouncing to the strategy and adapting to the terrorist threats
Scenario
(abandonned)
Chad
Chad based aircraft, which are
long date operational aircrafts
able to project in various African
Countries in real time
Mali
Aircrafts
(missile
launchers
(Fr.)
Serval
France
Terrorist
characterized
aggression
Infantry
transport
(Fr.)
Questio/Answers:
Personnaly, I think the media and politician sent wrong
signals in oderd to minimize the risk as the UN was not
ready to intervene is Mali nothing was prepared (no
resources- The media created noises -and possibly, this
has strenghten terrorist to speed up the instability in the
instability- due to the complexity of the situation(?)- I have
no evidence, but I think terrorist were informed like
anybody from the western media- as they knew UN had a
strategy end of 2013- This infromation prompted the
invasion of South Mali-Unfortunatly for them- France used
an automatic response build on a long date on its
partnership agreement between African countries which
allocated military bases to France-
So, the shortlead time between the characterised
aggression and the short lead-time of responsiveness
From France after Mali asked assistance is a sign that
the French militarians were well awared they could use
their comarative advantage and projection 24/24, 7/7 and
365/365- which is the best wasy to reduce uncertainty
New project in
the instant of the
attack- less me
think that the
battle was
already in
control -
before it started
BIRD GAO Strategy 2013 Source: author
BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT

10. Estimates of needs
(for recovery and reconstruction)
Optimistic (Bruxelles Donors)
€3,000,000,000
Pessimistic (Diuncounda traoure)
€1,000,000,000
167, 000 people
compensatations
56, 000 people
compensations
N1 (F1)+N2 (F2) + N3 (F3) + N4 (F4)
B U S I N E S S I N N O V A T I O N R E S E A R C H
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BIRD Gao Strategy 2013 Source: author