This is a personal work introducing micro-lead times to contrast with lead-times-macro leadtimes. It is helping to explain while the anti seismic architecture fails in some part of the world due to not compliance with the urbanism code. This model of supply chain manegement is also valid for water hazards and planning with disregard for flood regulation and codes. It is usefull to be assisted with a consultant to fill the gap between planners and disaster managers

1. MICRO-LEAD TIMES INFLUENCE ON DISASTER PREVENTION THIS TIME ELEMENT IS ALWAYS RELATED TO A REFERENCE POINT INFLUENCING OPERATIONAL RESPONSIVENESS, THE PROCESS DELIVERY (MACRO-LEAD TIMES) OR FOR SMALL ACTIVITIES OR TASKS (MICRO-LEAD TIMES ) PEOPLE AS INDIVIDUALS ARE BEING SEEN AS AN ORGANIZATION STRIVING FOR A GOAL. THE CASE I HAVE INTRODUCED IS THE COMPLIANCE OF WORKERS IN THE URBANISM CODE AND HOW THEY FOUND THAT REINFORCING BUILDING DURING AND / OR AFTER BRICKLAYING WAS DELAYING THEIR BRICKLAYING WORK. (georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com)

2. Raw material Preparation time Time for Cutting bricks Time for mix Time for laying Time for garnishing Limiting steps in the bricklaying Process T Laying Offset time for the preparadness Wall Offset time for reinforcement T1 T2 T3 Throughoutput time = T1 + T2 + T3 T'1 T''1 T'''1 GS RADJOU

3. MICRO LEAD-TIME INFLUENCES IN BRICKLAYING ON INFRASTRUCTURE RESISTANCE: LEAD-TIME FOR REINFORCEMENT OF BRICKLAYING. INTEGRATING LEADTIMES IN THE WORK OF BRICKLAYERS IS MY IDEA. I INTRODUCED THESE MICRO-LEAD TIMES TO EXPRESS THE CONCERN OF THEIR AVOIDANCE AND HOW THEY CAN IMPACT ON QUALITY WORKS. QUALITY IS RELATED AND RELATIVE TO COST AND TIME DURATION TO COMPLETE THE INFRASTRUCTURE (ACCORDING TO THE BUILDER PARADOX) ALSO, THE INTRODUCTION OF THE MICRO-LEADTIMES IS AN ANALOGY WITH MACRO LEAD TIME, WHICH IS AN ORDINARY PARAMETER FOR BUSINESSES IN THEIR SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS SUPPLY CHAINS LEAD-TIMES IS MUCH INTERESTING THAT LIMITING TIME , OFFSET TIME AND THOROUGHPUT TIME DUE TO THE FACT IT IS A DYNAMIC MEASURE OF HOW RESPONSIVE IS THE BUSINESS WHEN AN ORDER HAS BEEN PASSED AND THE GOOD HAS BEEN PROVIDED . CONCLUSION: LEAD-TIMES ARE NOT JUST THE TIME BASE FOR GANTT CHARTS (« STATIC TIMES »), BUT TIME IN ACTION (« DYNAMIC TIMES »)

4. INTRODUCTION TO MACRO-LEADTIMES

5. Hypothetical supply chains (Influence of forecast) Order for a good (A) Good (A) sold To Tso Time scale TL Lead time for operation Influence of forecast T'o Lead time reduction ( demand ) - WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION - Lead time reduction ( supply ) ( Project WAER access to water...) Lead-times reduction: supply -ts- and demand -td-) ( multinational case: WORLD CO ) td ts ts td GS RADJOU Anticipation (1) Responsiveness (2) Time Horizon for prediction T

6. WMO WANTS TO INCREASE LEAD TIME OF FORECAST -the meaning is making predictions today going beyond radar detections prediction before best prediction of radars i.e longer horizon lines for predictions time To PREDICTION SIDE PRODUCTION SIDE Tr Twmo Prediction Increase beyond radar prediction: increase of an increase is a positive Variation in a prediction Radar prediction GS RADJOU Drone prediction, software modelling

7. INTRODUCTION TO MiCRO-LEADTIMES

8. Effect of compliance to urbanism code Task: reinforcement of building Task end No reinforcement Shorter task ----> less good (builder paradox ) With re-inforcement Task start Ucode Time Δ t Urbanism code task ---> Good task (compliance with the builder paradox) Interruption caused in brickworks Brick working only Task Start Worker GS RADJOU

9. Lead time of activities (micro-lead times compared to macro lead-times for a process) Lead time of worker To=Td Tso=Ts Lead-time of urbanism code Time for making bricklaying Tno =Tw T with =Tu GS RADJOU Δ gap in lead-times

10. Whole process of bricklaying Brick manipulation Brick laying (only) Brick laying + reinforcement Task order Tasks sold Conclusion: 2 different lead-times between tasks caused by non compliance with the urbanism code (other sub-processes are unchanged) Addition of Sub-process reinforcement tr1 tr2 tr3 tr4 tr2 tr1 Time delay In the total lead-time is a negative variation of lead-time Lead time Increase with reinforcement reduce Bicklaying -leadtimes GS RADJOU bricks Various sub-processes Unchanged sub-process Brick laying + reinforcement Altered sub-process uncertainty

11. Task list : Start: Get bricks:T1 Laying bricks T2 Reinforcing bricks T3 End Total time= T1 + T2 + T3 Process lis t Brick manipulation Making mortar/cement Laying bricks Reinforcing bricks Work on bricks Get bricks Prepare bricks Work on cement Get cement Get water Mix cement with water Work on laying bricks Align bricks Reinforce bricks GS RADJOU

12. Distinction between lead-times and various other times In bricklaying (one person making bricklaying) Get bricks Get sand Get water Prepare bricks Prepare cement Laying bricks reinforcement Wall GS RADJOU

13. QUALITY COST TIME BUILDER PARADOX Source: unknown GS RADJOU

14. End