This document outlines a project to analyze territorial conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen through mapping changes in control over time and tracking airstrikes by the US and Russia. The objectives are to determine if a third party can change territorial control without ground troops and if strategic bombing alone is sufficient. The methods include creating digital maps of areas controlled by various groups and tracking coalition airstrikes. Results include maps of airstrike locations and a daily time series of territorial changes at the village level. The conclusion is that the project aims to facilitate hypothesis testing and prediction about conflict dynamics.

1. Abstract
We are aiming to establish a clear picture and make
sense of the current situation in countries with key
ongoing conflicts such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The
conflicts are especially important because of the
devastation and humanitarian disasters that have
critically affected the stability of the entire region and
world. Tracking US and Russian airstrikes in the
region and developing time-lapse sequences of conflict
maps have played particularly important roles in our
project for determining outcomes of these territorial
conflicts.
Objectives
• “Can a third party change the balance of
territorial control without having troops on the
ground?”
• “Is strategic bombing alone enough to change
who controls what, or is communication with
forces on the ground necessary?”
• Create a village level daily time series among
rebel groups to determine patterns in changes of
territory controlled
Methods
• Seek out online sources to find consistent and
reliable territory maps of the various conflicts
• Use ArcGIS to create digital polygons of the
area controlled by various rebel and government
groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen
• Track US and Russian coalition airstrikes against
forces in Syria and Iraq through United States
Central Command and the Russian Ministry of
Defense websites
• Information included: Date, location,
number of strikes, weapons system
used, and targets
Results
• Creation of representational maps geocoded with the locations of
coalition airstrikes
• Creation of a village level daily time series in territorial control using
overlays of polygons onto conflict maps
Conclusion
• Explain and predict conflict dynamics
• We hope that all the parts of our project will allow us to facilitate
hypothesis testing and prediction
• Hypothesis testing varies greatly depending on the sources that are used
• Sources may be biased towards one view of the conflicts
• US Central Command vs. Russian Ministry of
Defense
• Syrian Observatory for Human Rights vs. Syrian
Government
• Utilizing a multiple source data collection strategy will help offset gaps in
coverage by individual information providers
By: Neil Schwartz Sponsors: Nadiya Kostyuk and Dr. Yuri Zhukov
Fig. 1: Syria, July 12, 2012
Fig. 2: Syria, April 16, 2013
Fig. 3: Syria, January 23, 2014
Fig. 4: Syria, June 22, 2015
Fig. 5: Syria and Iraq, Sep. 2015 to Jan 2016 Fig. 6: US Airstrike Database
Fig. 6: Syrian Arab
Republic
Fig. 7: Syrian
Opposition
Fig. 8: Islamic State Fig. 9: Jabhat al-
Nusra front
Fig. 12: United
States
Fig. 13: Russian
Federation
Fig. 10: People’s
Protection Units
Fig. 11: Republic of
Turkey