The document discusses the emerging market for passenger drones, also called urban air mobility. It begins by providing context on the rapid growth of the drone market in general. Passenger drones aim to provide on-demand air transportation within cities as an alternative to ground transportation. Several companies are developing passenger drone technologies and prototypes, with some having completed test flights. Market analysts predict strong growth in the passenger drone market over the coming years, with estimates of a 30-35% compound annual growth rate that could result in a market size of $21-26 billion by 2023-2035. Regulations and infrastructure will need to be established to support urban air mobility services at scale.

1. URBAN AIR MOBILITY
Passenger Drones
The rise of a Fast Expanding Market1
?
By Patrick SEEGEL (IMBA Candidate at emlyon business school)
Figure 1: Visionary "Popular Science" Magazine Cover from 1957
1
rapidly growing opportunity in which the market is the focal point; industries or products that are experiencing
rapid growth; extremely lucrative markets that many people are unaware of or have overlooked; rapidly growing
pocket of excellence often undetected economies; growing business opportunities that have yet to contribute
substantially to a country’s GDP [22]

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Preface
The worldwide trend for drones, commercial and personal, is revealing a very substantial
market growth of 32% [1] and 39% [2] respectively from 2016 to 2017. Furthermore,
according to market reports published by PwC, the overall global market for drone
applications will have a total value of $127bn by 2020 and as such has nowhere near reached
its full potential yet. [3] [4]
“Production of drones for personal and commercial use is growing rapidly, with
global market revenue expected to increase 34 percent to reach more than $6
billion in 2017 and grow to more than $11.2 billion by 2020, according to a new
forecast from Gartner, Inc. Almost three million drones will be produced in 2017,
39 percent more than in 2016.” [5]
Hence it can be reasoned in simple terms that the drone market in general is a Fast Expanding
Market (FEM) and a renewed examination would not reveal any surprise. For that reason,
this study has a very different - more futuristic - focus on the application of drones, the so-
called Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Such specialised drones for the purpose of eco-friendly and
convenient passenger transport within large cities can be found under a variety of different
synonyms and acronyms such as Passenger Drone, Pilotless Helicopter, eVTOL (electrical
Vertical Take Off and Landing), Air Taxi, Flying Taxis or Flying Car.
This study will begin by giving an introduction to the history of passenger drones. In the
second chapter the circumstances which are creating this new environment and enabling the
present upswing of UAM will be discussed. The third chapter illustrates the market potential
for the coming years followed by an outlook until 2035 in chapter four. The conclusion of the
research question will complete this study.
Figure 2: Commercial Drone Market Revenue 2016-2017 [1] Figure 3: Personal Drone Market Revenue 2016-2017 [2]

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From Past to Status Quo of Urban Air Mobility
The idea of flying cars became popular the first time in 1926 followed by a second hype in the
1950s. They illustrated Popular Science covers and were a hot topic of conversations (see
Figure 1). But what has changed since the early times of the automobile? For almost 80 years
we saw a period of hibernation. In the meantime, cities grew bigger and bigger until so called
megacities2 such as Tokyo, Delhi, Sao Paulo or Mexico Ciudad emerged (see Figure 4). What’s
more, with the increasing size of those cities, traffic jams, noise and pollution have grown to
an unbearable level and are affecting hundreds of millions of people worldwide. This is not
only an issue for concerned individuals but especially for the economies of those metropolitan
areas as millions of people are spending hours every day being unproductive.
Why are we not all yet using helicopters to avoid traffic jams? One might say the answer is
obvious: It’s simply too expensive. Right. This is one factor which has prevented the air from
being occupied. The technique is expensive, requires a lot of costly maintenance and involves
a human factor which boosts the price of a commercial helicopter to a range from $500 up to
$5,000 per flight hour. Another reason is traffic control. Imagine thousands of helicopters
flying above a crowded city with the potential for a high risk of accidents. And finally , the
noise and pollution produced by thousands of helicopters within an urban area would be a
major disadvantage .
2
A megacity is a very large city, typically with a population in excess of 10 million people.
Figure 4: Megacities 2015-2030 [20]

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Circumstances for UAM to become a FEM
We’re entering into a new era of Urban Air Mobility. So far on-demand
transport through the air (e.g. via helicopter) is non-existent. All the
available services are very exclusive and not accessible to the general
public. As already discussed the reasons are high price, the absence of
an automated air traffic control system as well as noise and pollution.
What facilitates this upcoming industry are exactly those factors. With
cheaper products, lower maintenance costs, a high degree of
automatisation and an all-electric approach it will be possible to offer
on-demand air transport services at a competitive price (see Figure 6).
Technologies
Clean Technology, High Performance Batteries, High Speed Computers,
Advanced Flight Control Systems, Sensors, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and
Blockchain are the technologies which are giving the passenger drone
industry a completely new drive. Although most of those technologies were not invented with
the purpose of bringing cars into the air, they are enabling these new transportation concepts.
Regulations
Certification of vehicles and regulation of airspace are key for the expansion of Urban Air
Mobility. With full automation everyone can “fly” an aircraft without the need of a pilot.
Remote-Controlled or completely automated passenger drones will only require the
customer to selects the destination. This urges for a new kind of Air Traffic Management.
Concepts for this already exist but require state institutions to take action and define the
framework for unmanned air traffic.
“Airbus A³’s Altiscope project, which was launched in November 2016 as a think
tank focused on unmanned aerial traffic management systems (UTM), steps in. The
idea behind the group is to find regulations to help policymakers enable future air
mobility options — from flying electric bicycles to electric airplanes, hovering
vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to electric helicopters, and more.” [6]
The idea behind all those traffic control concepts is to divide airspace into different layers
with particular regulations. In the layer in which passenger drones would operate the
involvement of human traffic controllers will be made obsolete by AI and blockchain. All
vehicles will communicate with each other and decide and validate the most effective and
safe flight path for each participant as a collective using a decentralized network.
Figure 5 [19]Figure 6 [19]

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Infrastructure
The infrastructure for drones mainly comprises three components: Take-off and landing hubs
as well as servicing and charging stations. Although aerospace companies are the main
promotors, cities will be mainly responsible for the implementation of those infrastructures
into their urban development plans.
Social Acceptance
In the time of diesel-bans and a growing awareness for environmentally friendly traffic the
chances for electrical traffic concepts are flourishing. Noise and safety of passenger drones
will be closely linked with its acceptance. As seen with the example of Tesla, accidents are
perceived as a huge concern when considering the image and faith in a brand. Therefore, we
will see long periods of prototyping and testing before companies finally launch their services
for everyone’s use.
The Current Market for UAM
On-demand Air Transport Services
Voom claims to be the first app-based platform for on-demand air taxis, comparable to uber.
Just like its ground-based competitor Voom doesn’t own any of the assets delivering the
service. Although, for now, Voom has to fall back on conventional helicopters, it reaches up
to 80% cost saving compared to traditional helicopter services by means of an intelligent seat
allocation and a higher utilisation rate [7].
“In its first year of operations in São Paulo, Brazil, since starting in April 2017, on-
demand helicopter booking service Voom has experienced dramatic growth. The
number of trips arranged through the booking engine has grown at a month-on-
month rate of 200 percent, while the number of users has grown at 220 percent.”
[7]
With the aim to integrate electrical passenger drones into their portfolio, on-demand booking
services as well as traditional air transport services will be able to lower their cost structure
dramatically and thereby offer a competitive pricing compared to ground based
transportation platforms.

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Platform Developer Landscape
As the market for passenger drones is just in its infancy, typical factors such as revenue, profit
or number of units sold do not give a realistic picture of the market size and its potential.
Thus, this study concentrates its investigation on two dimensions: First, how much funding
has been raised over the last decades to support flying cars and passenger drones
development with the aim to bring them into the market, and second, what are the prognosis
for the passenger drone market by leading market analysts and consulting agencies.
Currently there are at least 19 companies involved in the development of commercial
passenger drones [8]. Big legacy firms such as Boeing and Airbus are developing in-house
platforms and at the same time are investing in or even acquiring start-ups to open their
portfolio for new innovative designs. In parallel global tech-firms such as Uber or Google are
attacking the branch from the side by investing themselves in promising upstarts (see
appendix).
“Hundreds of millions of dollars are pouring into start-ups that hope to build new
kinds of small, passenger-carrying aircraft. Dozens of new ventures have emerged
in just the last few months pursuing various approaches to “electric, vertical take-
off and landing” (Evtol) technology.” [9]
Figure 7: Vahana by A³ (Airbus) [23]

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To name a few, Uber for example has created a whole new eVTOL landscape with Uber
Elevate in which the company is partnering with at least five aeronautics companies: Aurora
Flight Sciences, Bell, Embraer, Karem Aircraft and Pipistrel [10]. To give another example,
Airbus created an outpost named A³ in Santa Clara to monitor promising new ventures and
to be the first to seize them. One of those shoots is Vahana (Figure 7) which made its maiden
flight this year and aims for production in 2020. Like Vahana several companies have full
functional prototypes proving the technical feasibility of the concepts. In December 2017,
EHang (Figure 8), a Chinese passenger drone maker says, “it will turn a profit within two years”
[11]. The company is so optimistic about its future because smart cities are showing very high
interest in the concept and first presentation flights took place in Dubai this year. Kitty Hawk,
owed by Google co-founder Larry Page, announced in March this year the introduction of
Zephyr Airworks, which will begin the regulatory approval process required for launching its
autonomous passenger-drone system in New Zealand using their Cora aircraft [12].
“Santa Clara-based start-up Joby Aviation Inc. said it raised $100 million and did a
demo flight for a pair of Bloomberg reporters.” [13] (Figure 9)
Figure 8: eHang 184 [24]
Figure 9: Joby Aviation [24]

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Figure 10: Fundraising of eVTOL start-ups since 2012 (see Appendix for Data) [14]
Figure 10 shows in accordance with the chart in the appendix how much funding start-ups
were able to raise over the last years.3 Although this data does not include R&D spendings by
multinational corporations such as Bell, Airbus or Boeing it gives revealing insight into the
dynamics of the industry.
As already indicated, legacy firms in the aerospace industry for their part are investing heavily
in R&D to develop electrical VTOLs. Even if they do not publish their budgets for those
ventures, countless news reports witness a significant increase on mentioned activities over
the last 5 years.
Market Performance
A study done by Market Research Future (MRFR) put forth a CAGR4 of 30% till 2023 which
would imply a market value of $26bill by 2023 [15]. This numbers include the drones itself,
components as well as adjacent products and services (see Figure 11).
3
Note: The numbers in the charts and graphs are based on publicly available data. As many of the mentioned
companies are backed or even acquired by big firms such as Google, Boeing or Airbus, investment data is often
not freely available. Hence, those numbers are a qualitative indicator for the market dynamics but cannot give
a quantitative precise statement.
4
Compound Annual Growth Rate
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fundraising in Million $

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“Passenger Drones Market Worth $26 Billion by 2023 with 30% of CAGR.” [15]
Comparing the different market research reports finds that absolute figures such as market
value or expected revenues vary greatly depending on scope of each report, ranging from the
single market for passenger drones up to the entire ecosystem of UAM including services and
adjacent markets (see Figure 12). However, it is noteworthy that all reports have in common
an expected CAGR between 28% and 32% for the forthcoming years. [16] [15] [17] [18]
Figure 11: Passenger Drones Market Worth $26 Billion by 2023 with 30% of CAGR [15]
Figure 12: Urban Air Mobility Ecosysem [21]

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The Future of the UAM Market
A different study by Porsche Consulting [19] focusses solely on the market for commercial
passenger drones with a horizon of 2025 to 2035. The study expects that until the year 2025
the industry will mainly be engaged in prototyping and testing of their current developments
and that we will see a real upswing of the industry in the years to follow as manufacturer
enter into a serial production phase. According to Porsche Consulting a CAGR of 35% is
expected for the market of urban passenger drone growing from $1bill in 2025 to $4bill in
2030 and reaching $21bill in 2035 (see Figure 13).
Even more conservative and progressive approaches done by Porsche Consulting estimate a
similar CAGR between 2025 and 2035 but take into consideration a different course in the
years before from 2018 to 2025 and thus conclude differing absolute numbers of market size
and units installed (see Figure 14).
Figure 13: Market Size for eVTOLs till 2035 [19]
Figure 14: Conservative and Progressive Prognosis for Market Size for eVTOLs till 2035 [19]

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Conclusion
The success of Passenger Drones will rise and fall with the question whether this service
remains exclusive for the rich or it becomes available and affordable for a broader public!
Given this, it has to be said that the growth rate will still be substantial in the first case, but
could reach totally different spheres in the second scenario. But different from expected, the
major challenge does not lie in the development of platforms but in the exploitation of the
necessary infrastructure and an advanced air traffic control.
With the information gathered and analysed the market for Passenger Drones will grow
somewhere in between 28% CAGR (2018-24) [16] and 35% CAGR (2025-35) [19]. What is
more, with the estimations of 43,000 units [19] by 2035 the total potential will not be reached.
It is calculated that - given the needed infrastructure - a number of approximately 200,000
units can be captured by the market [19].
As cities are intensively investigating in solutions to reduce traffic jams, pollution and noise I
personally expect that passenger drones alongside with cargo drones will shake urban
mobility dramatically. Other concepts such as hyperloop or sky trains cannot compete with
the flexibility of air transport and require a huge upfront investment by cities into the
infrastructure. Once those infrastructures are set up, those transport systems have to rely on
the chosen routes. EVTOLs only depend on free areas smaller than the size of a helicopter-
pad. Those pads can be constructed cheaper, faster and less expensive. Furthermore,
adoption to customer needs is much more flexible. Electrical cars are the future for ground-
based individual transport and will solve city’s noise and air pollution problems, but cannot
be a solution for the congestion in megacities.
To sum up, when will you take your first flight in a self-piloted drone?

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Appendix - List of Companies
Company
Current
Phase
Develop-
ment
Start
First
Flight
Fundraising [14]
Series A Series B Series C
MOLLER Skycar Prototyping 1983 2020
IPO (2006), actuall Market Cap.
$1.14M
AURORA eVTOL (Boeing)
(Uber Partner)
Testing 1989 2020
15 mil
(2003)
acquired by Boeing
(2017)
TERRAFUGIA Transition
(by Geely)
Testing 2006 2019
1.5 mil
(2008)
4 mil
(2012)
1 mil
(2015)
JOBY AVIATION S2
(JetBlue, Toyota, Intel)
Prototyping 2009 n/a
30 mil
(2016)
100 mil
(2017)
ZEE.AERO & Kitty Hawk
(by Larry Page)
Testing 2010 n/a
$100 mil (2016 by Larry Page, Google
Co-Founder)
AEROMOBIL Flying Car Testing 2010 2020
6 mil
(2015)
3mil
(2017)
E-VOLO Volocopter
(Intel, Daimler)
Testing 2012 2018
1.2 mil
(2013)
30 mil
(2017)
LILIUM (TUM) Testing 2014 2019
11.4 mil
(2016)
90 mil
(2017)
EHang 184 (Dubai's RTA) Testing 2014 2018 10M (2014)
42M
(2015)
PAL-V Production 2001 2018 not public
VAHANA (by A^3 by Airbus) Prototyping 2016 2020 not public
City Airbus aka PopUp
(by Airbus Helicopters)
Prototyping 2016 2020 not public
VRCO NeoXCraft Prototyping n/a 2020 not public
SureFly (Workhorse Group)
(Piston Engine)
Testing 2017 n/a not public
Bell Urban Air Taxi Prototyping 2017 2023 not public
Project Zero (Agusta
Westland)
Concept 2010 2011 not public
ELROY (by ASTRO) Concept n/a 2017 not public
Rolls-Royce electric Flying
Car
Concept 2018 n/a not public
Voom "Service Platform"5
(Airbus Helicopters)
Operating n/a 2017 not public
Altiscope UTM6
(by A^3 by Airbus)
Prototyping 2016 n/a not public
Uber Elevate7
(NASA
Partner)
Prototyping 2017 2023 not public
5
Service Platform for on-demand flight booking
6
Think tank for new Unmanned Air Traffic Controle
7
UAM Ecosystem with the aim to partner with various platform developer

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