1) Arizona ranked 4th in the US for job growth in 2018, adding over 78,000 new jobs. The top 5 growing industries - construction, healthcare, professional services, manufacturing, and transportation - accounted for two-thirds of new jobs in Q1 2019. 2) Arizona is forecast to add over 77,000 new jobs in 2019, with population growth exceeding 100,000 new residents for the 4th consecutive year. Home prices are rising faster than wages in metro Phoenix. 3) While Arizona and metro Phoenix continue to see strong economic expansion in 2019, growth may slow from recent highs as the national economy poses risks. Key industry drivers remain construction, healthcare, and domestic in-migration.

1. Subtitle text can go here
Update & Outlook
Arizona & Metro Phoenix
Lee.McPheters@asu.edu
May 2, 2019

2. Category Forecast Actual
New Jobs 69,000 78,700
Jobs % Growth 2.5 2.8
Population % Growth 1.6 1.7
Single Family Permits 31,725 31,707
Forecasts ECP May 2018; actuals from U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U. S. Census Bureau
Forecast Reality Check
(2018 Arizona Forecast vs. Actual 2018 Data)

3. Arizona Ranked 4th in Non-Farm
Job Creation In 2018
Ranked by % Change: 2018 over 2017
UT
2
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
& W. P. Cary School of Business
NV
1
WA
5
OR ID
3
CO
7
AZ
4
CA
10
TX
9
FL
6
NC
SC
8GA
Color Code
Top 10 10
Others Faster
Than U.S.
3
Slower
Than U.S.
36
Lost Jobs 1
US = 1.7%
AK
HI

4. Indicators 2018 2019 2020
Employment (% change) 2.8 2.7 2.5
New Jobs 78,700 77,000 73,000
Population (% change) 1.7 1.7 1.6
New Residents 122,800 123,700 116,700
Single Family Permits 31,707 34,880 38,370
Arizona Economic Outlook
Greatest Risk is National Economy
W. P. Carey School of Business based on data available May 2019

5. Q1 Job Growth 2015 – 2019
Rank
In U.S.
% Growth
Yr/Yr Q1
Growth
2015-Q1 12 2.4 62,040
2016-Q1 11 2.7 70,630
2017-Q1 6 2.5 66,970
2018-Q1 4 2.9 79,330
2019-Q1 3 2.6 73,330
First Quarter Assessment: Is the
Arizona Economy Growing or Slowing?
The Answer Is YES! Q1 2019 Job Growth Was Slower than Q1 2018 But
Still Faster than 47 States and Added Second-Most Q1 Jobs Since 2006

6. 16,100
13,400
7,600
6,200
5,100
Construction
Health Care
Professional/Scientific
Manufacturing
Transport/Warehousing
Q1 2019
Job Growth
73,330
Top 5 Growth Industries Made Up Two-Thirds of All New Arizona Jobs in Q1
Arizona Job Growth: 1st Qtr. 2019
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. Deja Vu All Over Again? Is There an Arizona
Construction Bubble? Economy Now Diverse
Construction accounted for
9% of all Arizona
Jobs in 2006
Construction accounted for
5.7% of all U.S.
Jobs in 2006
4.8%
Arizona
U.S.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
Alert: In Q1 2019,
construction made
up 20% of all new
jobs, same as 2006
Construction accounts for
5.7% of all Arizona Jobs 2019

8. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
25,300
51,000
57,600
50,300
66,100
72,400
68,500
78,700 77,000
Arizona To Add 77,000 Jobs in 2019
Arizona Continues as a Top 10 Growth State for 4th Year
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & W. P. Carey School of Business
Forecast

9. 1
3
5
9
U. S. States Ranked by
Percent Change 2017-2018
4
U. S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2018
8
7
6
2
24
10
39
Top 10 Growth States Lost Population
Arizona Ranked 4th Fastest in
Population Growth in 2018
11
Alaska
Hawaii

10. 3
7
4
1
5
6
9
8
Arizona Ranked 2nd Among All States
for Domestic In-Migration in 2018
2
Alaska
Hawaii
27 States in Red Lost
Domestic Population
to 23 States in Green
Gained In-Migrants Lost Out-Migrants
10

11. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
65,700
83,100
78,400
98,800 99,800
111,900
103,400
122,800 123,700
ForecastU.S. Census Bureau & W. P. Carey School of Business
Arizona Population Gains to Exceed
100,000 New Residents for 4th Year

12. Metro Phoenix Home Prices are
Rising More Rapidly than Wages
Index: 2010 = 100
Data through Q3 2018
Wages up 12% 2013 -2018
Phoenix MSA Home Prices up 31% 2013-2018*
*(Note: Q3 2018 home prices = 82% of 2006 peak)
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and S&P Dow Jones Indices

13. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10,294
16,121
18,237 17,281
22,620
24,409
27,588
31,707
34,880
Arizona Single Family Permits
5th Year of Home Building Gains
10% Arizona Rise Expected in 2019
ForecastU.S. Census Bureau & W. P. Carey School of Business
Single Family Building Permits
First Quarter 2019
U.S. -7.9%
Arizona +4.3%
Metro Phoenix +10.3%

14. Greater Phoenix Outlook
W. P. Carey School of Business, based on data available May 2019
Indicators 2018 2019 2020
Employment (% change) 3.3 3.1 2.8
New Jobs 68,000 65,000 61,000
Population (% change) 2.0 1.9 1.7
New Residents 96,000 92,000 84,000
Single Family Permits 23,553 26,380 27,700

15.  Phoenix Becomes 10th Largest MSA in 2019
 Phoenix area accounts for 85% of new jobs, 75% of
housing permits, 75% of population growth
 Q1: Phoenix MSA ranks 3rd in job creation among
large metro areas; 1st in construction job growth
 But wage structure is 5% to 10% below U.S.; as
home prices rise, affordability declines
 One of the most dynamic areas again in 2019
Greater Phoenix Outlook Summary: 2019

16.  2018 best year for job growth (79K) since 2006;
2019 will be slower but expansion continues
 2019 drivers: construction, professional/technical,
health care, manufacturing, warehousing
 Domestic in-migration boosts population growth
 Population, start ups, and cost structure will drive
growth in 2019 – U.S. business cycle is greatest risk
Arizona Economic Outlook Summary:2019

17. Subtitle text can go here
Update & Outlook
Arizona & Metro Phoenix
Lee.McPheters@asu.edu
May 2, 2019