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Unmet need of family planning and its impact
1. FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH UNMET NEED OF FAMILY
PLANNING AND ITS IMPACT ON POPULATION GROWTH
IN BANGLADESH
M Sheikh Giash Uddin1*
, Tofayel Ahmed2
and M G Kibria3
1
Department of Statistics, Jagannath University, Dhaka-1100, Bangladesh and 2
Monitoring ,
2
Evaluation Unit (MoHFW), Janashankha Bhaban, Azimpur, Dhaka-1205, Bangladesh
and 3
Management Sciences for Health (MSH), Gulshan, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh
Abstract
In Bangladesh, fertility was high in the 1950s and declined to fewer than five births per
woman in the early or mid-1990s like other developing countries. After that the level of
fertility is stalled. The aim of this study is to assess the extent of unmet need for family
planning among married women of reproductive age group in Bangladesh and to study the
factors related to it. Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data were used for the
study. The results suggest that unmet need for family planning has increased during the
last 3 years from time of the survey. The percentage of total unmet need is especially high
among rural women, non working women, Muslim women, and women not exposed to
media messages on family planning. The regression analysis shows that age, husband-wife
communication, sex composition and visitation status of satellite clinic appear to be
significant predictor for limiting unmet need. If we can reduce the current unmet need to
zero then current met need will be 73 percent which is the required rate of achieving
replacement fertility in Bangladesh. New program strategies are required to fulfill the
conventional demand for family planning program in Bangladesh.
Key words: Unmet need, met need, family planning, population growth
* Corresponding author email: giash16@yahoo.com
2. 2
Introduction
During the last decade, contraceptive prevalence in Bangladesh has increased 11 percentage
points (from 45 percent in 1993-94 to 56 percent in 2007), whereas the proportion of currently
married women who wish to regulate childbearing has increased 8 percentage points (from 65
percent in 1993-94 to 73 percent in 2007). The unmet need has declined from 19 percent in
1993-94 to 17.1 percent in 2007. Although there is a speculation that the conventional unmet
need is usually under estimate the actual need for family planning (Barkat-e-Khuda et al. 1999),
the scenario is very much visible in Bangladeshi context. The decline in fertility in the last two
decades occurred mostly among older women (Mitra et al. 1997, NIPORT et al. 2005). Since
1990 the level of fertility stalled in mid-transition in Bangladesh like other developing countries.
In each of these countries fertility was high (more than six births per woman) in the 1950s and
declined to fewer than five births per woman in the early or mid-1990s, before stalling. The level
of stalling varied from 4.7 births per woman in Kenya to 2.5 births per woman in Turkey
(Bongaarts 2006). The determinants of fertility of these countries revealed a systematic pattern of
leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the
demand for contraception, and number of wanted births. There was no major deterioration in
contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted births are relatively
high (Bongaarts 2006, Kawsar et al. 2008).
The definition and measurement of unmet need have evolved considerably during the
past two decades. The concept of unmet need for contraception has the considerable advantage
of taking into account women’s expressed interest in postponing or avoiding a pregnancy in
assessing her “need” for a contraceptive method. In its 5-year review of International Conference
on Population and Development (ICPD), the UN General Assembly adopted a target of
eliminating the global unmet need for family planning by 2015, that is closing “the gap between
3. 3
contraceptive use and the proportion of individuals expressing a desire to space or limit their
families” (Dixon-Mueller and Germain 2007). According to Westoff and Bankole (1995) change
in unmet need is a function of changes in contraceptive practice and changes in desire to regulate
fertility. Based on this equation, Jain (1999) argued “unmet need at the aggregate level will
decline if the proportion of women using contraceptives increases faster than the proportion who
wishes to regulate childbearing; unmet need will increase if the need for fertility regulation
increases faster than contraceptive prevalence”.
Although fertility rate is still high (2.7) compared to other South Asian countries, the
total wanted fertility is only 2.3, which clearly shows that average 0.4 pregnancies are
unwanted. In Bangladesh, women with unwanted pregnancy are more likely to seek unsafe
abortion and it is one of the important causes of maternal mortality and morbidity (Ahmed et
al. 2005). The main objective of this study is to assess the extent of unmet need for family
planning among married women of reproductive age group in Bangladesh and to study the
factors related to it. This paper also assesses the impact of unmet need of family planning on
future population growth in Bangladesh.
Data and Methods
The study uses data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007.
This is a probability sample of 10996 ever married women of reproductive age. Typically, the
BDHSs used two stage sampling design. Details of sample design including sampling frame
work and sample implementation are provided in the main survey reports (NIPORT 2009). In
this article we focus on the currently married women because the need for unmet need for
contraception applies to them. Our analytical approach is first to tabulate the percentage
distribution of currently married women in the various need categories (unmet need for
4. 4
spacing, unmet need for limiting, met need for spacing and met need for limiting and no
need) for Bangladesh and by demographic, socio-economic and program characteristics. We
also used chi-square tests to compare proportions of women categorized by their
characteristics, intentions and behaviors. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine
the effect of women’s characteristics on the likelihood of inconsistency in childbearing and
contraceptive behavior.
Definitions of unmet need
Sexually active women who are not currently using a method of family planning and want to
stop or postpone child bearing are defined to have an unmet need for family planning (Dixon-
Mueller and Germain 2007, Westoff 1988, NIPORT 2009). A currently married woman who
is not using a method of contraception is defined as an unmet need for spacing births (to
postpone pregnancy at least 2 years) if the current pregnancy or last birth was mistimed, or if
she is fecund and wants to wait having the next child. A currently married woman who is not
using a method of contraception is defined as an unmet need for limiting births (stopping or
avoiding childbearing entirely) if the current pregnancy or last birth was unwanted, or if she
is fecund and wants no more children. Total unmet need is the sum of unmet need for spacing
and for limiting. Total demand for family planning is the sum of total unmet need and total
current contraceptive use (NIPORT 2009). No demand for contraception is defined as desired
birth within 2 year or infecund and menopausal. In this article poor contraception is defined
as the women using less effective method (condom) or using natural family planning
(periodic abstinence) or using natural family planning (withdrawal). Similarly, health-risk
unmet need of non-users is defined as women not using contraception, but already had more
than 4 live births or not using contraception, but short birth interval (last birth less than 15
5. 5
months) or not using contraception, but too young (age less than 20 years) or not using
contraception, but too old (age more than 35 years) (Kartner and Bairagi 1996).
Results
Univariate analysis is conducted to describe the demographic and socio-economic background of
the sample respondents. The information shows that mean age of the respondents was 30.0 years
with a standard deviation of 9.2. Almost 19% women who have unmet need for family planning
lived in urban areas whereas 81% women lived in rural areas. About one third (33%) of the
respondents had no education; about one third of the women reported they are currently working;
32% mentioned that they have exposure to TV and about 45% reported that they have access to
electricity.
Table 1 shows that unmet need for family planning trends since 1993-94 BDHS. The
table suggests that unmet need for family planning has increased from over 11.3 percent in
2004 BDHS to little over 17 percent in 2007 BDHS. The unmet need for contraception is also
classified by poor contraception of unmet need of users and unmet need for health risk of
non-users. And these two components also increased between the last two survey periods.
Considering the poor contraception and health risk, the actual unmet need increased 32.8
percent to 43.8 percent during the last two survey periods.
Table 2 shows that 17.1 percent of women have an unmet need for family planning
and 27.1 percent have no need for family planning. Among those having a need, almost 24%
have an unmet need. As evident with the increase in age of the respondents, the unmet need
for family planning also declines. Unmet need is the highest for the women age group 15-19
years. Unmet need is high among women in Sylhet division and Chittagong division
6. 6
respectively. There is difference in the unmet need for family planning between poorest and
richest quintiles. The percentage of need for limiting that is unmet shows greater variation
with respect to the predictor variables than does the percentage of need for spacing that is
unmet. As an illustration, Figure 1 shows the variation between the percentage of need for
spacing that is unmet and the percentage of need for limiting that is unmet by education of
women.
At the bi-variate level, cross tabulation is used to assess the relationship between
dependent and independent variables. The chi-square statistic is used to test the association
between unmet need for family planning and independent variables (Table 3). The analysis
shows that place of residence, number of living children, religion, level of education, current
work status, husband and wife discussion about FP, NGO membership and exposure to TV
are significantly associated with unmet need of family planning.
The study used multinomial logistic regression because the dependent variable i.e.
unmet need for contraception is categorical (Table 4). Since many individual characteristics
are interrelated, the study investigates specific effects of independent variables on different
categories of unmet needs through a regression model. For predicting four categories of
unmet need a new category for no unmet need has been considered as a reference category.
The regression coefficient shows that age, age at first marriage, husband-wife
communication, sex compositions and visitation status of satellite clinic appear to be
significant predictor for limiting unmet need. Unmet need for spacing is significantly low in
Khulna compared to the Sylhet division. Similarly, age, level of education, wealth quintile,
division, place of residence, exposure to TV, visitation of field workers, visit to the satellite
clinic, husband wife communication, and sex composition are important correlates of poor
7. 7
contraception. Compared with the younger women, poor contraception unmet need is more
among women age 25 years and above. Women who have both boy and girl or only have a
boy or a girl are significantly associated with poor contraceptive unmet need. As expected,
health risk unmet need for contraception is significantly low among women who are aged 25
years and above. Husband-wife communication about family planning has significant
negative effect on health –risk unmet need. Women who have sex composition of either a boy
or a girl have less likely to have health risk compared to women who have one boy and one
girl. Women who are visited by the workers are less likely to have a health risk.
We performed binary logistic regression on the total unmet need for contraception and
independent variable which is shown in Table 5. We introduced some more independent
variables such as desire for more children, occurrence of births prior to three years preceding
the survey. Both the variables are significantly associated with the unmet need for
contraception. For instance, the lower is the desire for more children the higher is the
likelihood of having unmet need for contraception. In contrast, women who had given birth
within last three years have 1.6 times higher chance of unmet need than who did not give
birth. Rural women are 1.4 times more likely to have unmet need than urban women. Women
resided in the area where family planning worker’s visits regularly have less unmet need of
family planning than their counterparts. Religion affiliation indicates that Muslims are 1.4
times higher likelihood of unmet need than the other religions such as Hindus and Buddhist.
Discussion and Conclusion
The findings of the study revealed that little over seventeen percent of currently married
women of reproductive age in Bangladesh have an unmet need for contraception. This unmet
need, accounts for 23.5% of the total need for contraception (met plus unmet). When we
8. 8
investigate how need varies by respondent’s demographic characteristics, we see that the
percentage of total need that is unmet need is high among younger women and women with
few living children. By socio-economic characteristics, the percentage of total need that is
unmet is high among rural women, Muslim women and women with no exposure to media
message on family planning. Similarly, unmet need for spacing varies considerably by age
and number of living children. The regression analysis of this study confirmed that age,
husband-wife communication, sex composition and visitation status of satellite clinic appear
to be significant predictor for limiting unmet need (Phillips et al. 1996). The desire for more
children and occurrence of births three years preceding the survey are significantly associated
with the unmet need for contraception. The findings indicate that the lower is the desire for
more children the higher is the likelihood of having unmet need for contraception.
In Bangladesh, conventional limiting and spacing unmet needs and unconventional
health risk unmet need vary significantly across geographical divisions. In all respects Sylhet
and Chittagong divisions have higher unmet need possibly due to low contraceptive use in
these two divisions. New program strategies are required to fulfill the conventional demand
for family planning in Sylhet and Chittagong respectively. Although there are attempts to
fulfill the conventional unmet need, but choice of method is a critical issue in Bangladesh.
BDHS 2007 shows that although 56% currently married women want to limit child bearing,
but only 6% are using permanent methods. In this respect, choice of method is an important
issue that should be taken into consideration while fulfilling the demand for conventional
unmet need for contraception. If it is not brought into the policy, the goal of reaching
replacement level fertility will not be achieved. This is because women may experience
unwanted and mistimed pregnancy which is comparatively high (one third of all births) in
Bangladesh.
9. 9
Unmet Need and Its Impact on Population Growth
Among the women 17% mentioned that they have unmet need for contraception. If they can
be converted to users the contraceptive use rate will be about 72.9%. If this can be achieved
Bangladesh will be able to achieve replacement fertility immediately. If we put this CPR in
the regression line TFR = 7.15 - 0.0688 CPR then TFR will be 2.1 children per woman
(which is the replacement fertility) and corresponding population growth will be zero percent
(zero population growth). If we can implement 10% of the unmet need into users then CPR
will be 66% and the corresponding TFR will be 2.5 and the population growth will be about
0.81 % (about one percent). Once we achieve replacement fertility then population growth
will be zero theoretically although momentum effect will continue for some time because of
high fertility in the past. Therefore, unmet need for contraception should be given priority to
achieve zero population growth (Casterline and Sinding 2000). This indicates that reduction
of unmet need for contraception has significant impact on future population growth. The
intensified promotion of temporary methods may reduce unmet need for spacing as well as
unmet need liming. Moreover, some women who begin to use by spacing may shift to
limiting at a lower number of living children than they would if they did not space (Ross and
Winfrey 2001).
Unmet need has direct impact on total fertility rate. It is believed that if unmet need
were eliminated, fertility would decline substantially (Omrana 2001). From a policy
perspective, reducing unmet need for family planning is important for both achieving
demographic goals and enhancing individual rights. From a demographic standpoint,
reducing unmet need can lower fertility in Bangladesh struggling to cope with rapid
population growth. Despite the extensive family planning program in Bangladesh, the unmet
need for family planning program is still high among women. If the women with unmet need
10. 10
use family planning methods, the country will achieve replacement fertility as well as
millennium development goal by 2015.
Table 1. Trend in unmet need for family planning in Bangladesh, 1993/94-2007.
Unmet need BDHS BDHS BDHS BDHS BDHS
1993-94 1996-97 1999-2000 2004 2007
Unmet need for limiting 9 7.9 7.3 6.2 10.5
Unmet need for spacing 9.2 7.8 8 5.1 6.6
Unmet need for Poor contraception of user 8.1 8.8 9.7 10.9 12.3
Unmet need for Health-risk of non-users 15.1 14.6 12.3 10.7 14.4
Total unmet need 41.4 39.1 37.3 32.8 43.8
Total women 8980 8450 9720 10582 10192
Table 2. Need for family planning among currently married women by demographic,
socioeconomic and program variables: BDHS 2007.
Variables Unmet
need
Met
need
No
need
Number
of women
% in need
(met plus
unmet)
% of total
need that is
unmet need
Age 15-19 19.3 41.9 38.8 1376 61.2 31.6
20-24 17.2 52.4 30.4 2092 69.6 24.7
25-29 17.4 60.9 21.7 1858 78.3 22.2
30-34 18.3 65.1 16.7 1549 83.3 21.9
≥35 15.7 57.3 27.0 3269 73.0 21.5
Level of education 0 17.5 55.1 27.5 3257 72.5 24.1
1-5 16.1 56.8 27.1 3053 72.9 22.1
6-9 18.6 54.8 26.6 3208 73.4 25.4
≥10 13.9 64.0 22.2 627 77.8 17.8
Division Barisal 19.8 56.5 23.7 625 76.3 26.0
Chittagong 23.4 44.0 32.6 1872 67.4 34.7
Dhaka 17.6 56.7 25.7 3171 74.3 23.7
Khulna 11.9 63.5 24.5 1272 75.5 15.8
Rajshahi 12.0 66.2 21.8 2575 78.2 15.4
Sylhet 26.1 31.6 42.2 632 57.8 45.2
Place of residence Urban 14.6 62.2 23.2 2272 76.8 19.0
Rural 18.0 54.2 27.8 7874 72.2 24.9
Wealth quintiles Poorest 17.5 55.2 27.4 1891 72.6 24.0
Poorer 18.7 55.1 26.2 1981 73.8 25.4
Middle 17.2 54.3 28.5 2049 71.5 24.1
Richer 17.1 55.3 27.6 2131 72.4 23.6
Richest 15.7 60.1 24.2 2095 75.8 20.7
Total 17.1 55.8 27.1 10192 72.9 23.5
11. 11
Table 3. Association between unmet need and some selected variables.
Variables Unmet need
No Yes Total
n Percent n Percent n
Age group <25 Years 2843 81.9 627 18.1 3470
≥25 Years 5602 83.3 1120 16.7 6722
2
=3.2; P<0.07
Type of place of residence Urban 1952 85.5 331 14.5 2283
Rural 6493 82.1 1416 17.9 7909
2
=14.4; P<0.00
Level of education 0 2713 82.7 569 17.3 3282
1-5 2569 83.9 493 16.1 3062
6-9 2620 81.4 597 18.6 3217
≥10 542 86.2 87 13.8 629
2
=11.8; P<0.00
Number of living children None 940 86 153 14 1093
One 1818 83.5 359 16.5 2177
Two 2178 84.1 413 15.9 2591
Three 1649 82.8 342 17.2 1991
Four or more 1860 79.5 480 20.5 2340
2
=29.6; P<0.00
Religion Islam 7631 82.5 1623 17.5 9254
Others 809 86.8 123 13.2 932
2
=11.2; .P<0.00
Currently working Yes 2681 86.3 425 13.7 3106
No 5762 81.4 1320 18.6 7082
2
=37.3; P<0.00
Whether husband discuss
about FP
Never 4248 76.4 1315 23.6 5563
Once or twice 3275 90 362 10 3637
More often 917 93 69 7 986
2
=369.0; P<0.00
Desire fertility Yes 3013 84.9 537 15.1 3550
No 5431 81.8 1209 18.2 6640
2
=15.4; P<0.00
NGO membership Yes 3324 85.7 554 14.3 3878
No 5121 81.1 1192 18.9 6313
2
=35.7; P<0.00
Exposure to TV Yes 2761 85.1 484 14.9 3245
No 5684 81.8 1263 18.2 6947
2
=16.6; P<0.00
Total 6160 83.7 1200 16.3 7360
12. 12
Table 4. Multinomial logistic regression estimates of different categories of unmet need
for family planning, Bangladesh 2007.
Variables Space vs No need Limit vs No need Poor
Contraception vs
No need
Health Risk vs No
need
B OR B OR B OR B OR
Age group ≥25 (<25=RC) -1.33*** 0.26 0.87*** 2.40 0.49*** 1.63 0.18* 1.20
Age at first marriage ≥18 (<18=RC) -0.03 0.97 -0.44*** 0.64 -0.15 0.86 -1.03*** 0.36
Educational Level No education -0.48** 0.62 0.34 1.40 -0.43** 0.65 1.38*** 3.97
1-5 -0.39* 0.68 0.09 1.10 -0.42** 0.66 0.96*** 2.62
6-9 0.14 1.15 0.35 1.42 -0.23 0.79 0.96*** 2.60
≥10 (RC)
Wealth Quintile Poorest 0.02 1.02 -0.31* 0.73 -0.94*** 0.39 -0.44*** 0.65
Second 0.26 1.30 0.05 1.05 -0.70*** 0.50 -0.14 0.87
Third -0.11 0.90 0.09 1.09 -0.45*** 0.64 0.00 1.00
Fourth 0.11 1.12 -0.10 0.91 -0.44*** 0.65 0.01 1.01
Richest (RC)
Division Barisal 0.78*** 2.19 0.32 1.38 -0.26 0.77 0.08 1.09
Chittagong 0.60*** 1.83 0.05 1.06 -1.07*** 0.34 -0.05 0.95
Dhaka 0.57*** 1.76 0.20 1.22 -0.19 0.83 -0.02 0.98
Rajshahi 0.21 1.23 0.16 1.17 -0.03 0.97 -0.03 0.97
Sylhet 0.78*** 2.17 -0.07 0.93 -0.97*** 0.38 0.18 1.20
Khulna (RC)
Residence Rural (Urban=RC) -0.02 0.98 0.07 1.07 -0.23 0.80 -0.04 0.96
NGO Member Yes (No=RC) -0.23** 0.79 -0.14 0.87 -0.15 0.86 -0.09 0.91
Exposure to TV Yes (No=RC) -0.12 0.89 -0.03 0.97 0.09 1.10 -0.18* 0.84
Family planning outreach services
Yes (No=RC) -0.20 0.82 0.02 1.02 -0.03 0.97 0.12 1.13
Field worker's visitation status
Yes (No=RC) -0.07 0.93 -0.02 0.98 0.23* 1.26 -0.59*** 0.55
Visitation status of satellite clinic
Yes (No=RC) 0.05 1.05 -0.30*** 0.74 -0.57*** 0.56 -0.67*** 0.51
Religion Others (RC=Islam) -0.49*** 0.61 -0.26 0.77 0.26* 1.30 -0.15 0.86
Husband wife communication FP
Yes (No=RC) 0.06* 1.07 0.35*** 1.41 2.35*** 10.52 -0.37*** 0.69
Sex composition Only son -0.14 0.87 -1.82*** 0.16 -1.24*** 0.29 -1.11*** 0.33
Only daughter -0.24 0.79 -2.23*** 0.11 -1.54*** 0.22 -0.94*** 0.39
Both (RC)
Constant 0.03 0.01 -0.03
OR=Odd Ratio; RC=Reference Category; ***P<0.01; **P<0.05; *P<0.10
13. 13
Table 5. Logistic regression analyses for unmet need and selected variables.
Variables B P-value OR (95% CI)
Age ≥25 (<25=RC) -0.09 0.22 0.9 (0.8-1.0)
Age at first marriage <18 (≥18=RC) -0.02 0.77 1.0 (0.8-1.1)
Place of residence Rural (Urban=RC) 0.34 0.00 1.4 (1.2-1.6)
Division Barisal -0.31 0.02 0.7 (0.6-1.0)
Chittagong -0.14 0.21 0.9 (0.7-1.1)
Dhaka -0.38 0.00 0.7 (0.5-0.8)
Khulna -0.83 0.00 0.4 (0.3-0.5)
Rajshahi -0.82 0.00 0.4 (0.3-0.5)
Sylhet (RC) 1.00
Educational Level 0 (RC)
1-5 -0.05 0.48 0.9 (0.8-1.1)
6-10 0.18 0.02 1.2 (1.0-1.4)
10+ -0.11 0.41 0.9 (0.7-1.2)
Religion Islam (RC= Others) 0.36 0.00 1.4 (1.2-1.8)
NGO Member Yes (No=RC) -0.21 0.00 0.8 (0.7-0.9)
Exposure to TV Yes (No=RC) -0.15 0.02 0.9 (0.8-1.0)
Family planning outreach services Yes (No=RC) -0.15 0.02 0.9 (0.8-1.0)
Field worker's visitation status Yes (No=RC) -0.54 0.00 0.6 (0.5-0.7)
Visitation status of satellite clinic Yes (No=RC) -0.09 0.21 0.9 (0.8-1.1)
Currently Working Yes (No=RC) -0.16 0.01 0.8 (0.7-1.0)
Desire more children Yes (No=RC) -0.49 0.00 0.6 (0.5-0.7)
Birth last three years Yes (No=RC) 0.48 0.00 1.6 (1.4-1.8)
Constant 2.4
Chi-square 425.6
-2 Log likelihood 8896.5
RC=Reference Category; OR=Odd Ratio; CI=Confidence Interval
40
30 30
2322
19 21
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
No education Primary Secondary Higher
% of need for spacing that is unmet % of need for limiting that is unmet
Figure 1. Percentage of the need for spacing and limiting that is unmet, by women
education
14. 14
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