This document analyzes the Obama administration's strategic "pivot" toward East Asia using the foreign policy decision-making model. The model has three components: 1) considering global conditions and problems, 2) internal state characteristics, and 3) the leader's personal characteristics. The document discusses the rising economic and military power of China as a key global condition prompting the US shift toward Asia to counter China's influence and reassure allies. It also examines internal debates within the US on balancing engagement with a powerful China against protecting American economic and security interests.
The document discusses US-China foreign policy relations and decision making processes. It examines the relationship between the two countries across several issues including security, currency exchange, financial matters, and human rights. It also analyzes cultural differences between China and the US that influence their relationship, as well as political ideologies like neoconservatism that shape US foreign policy approaches toward China. Containment versus engagement strategies for China's rise are also debated. Overall, the relationship remains complex due to differing political systems between the US and China.
a statistical software package
that helps address this flaw in strategy analysis.
The software analyzes what events may happen
in the future, gives their probability of occurrence, and provides the chance you will be surprised or blindsided by an unforeseen event.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
Barack Wins Scenarios By Gerald Harris2Gerald Harris
1. The Underfunded Agenda scenario describes a world with a long global recession that requires cooperation between political parties to find solutions. President Obama compromises on some promises due to economic conditions but oversees a withdrawal from wars and rebuilding of defense spending. By his second term, the economy is growing again.
2. The One Term Nightmare scenario involves a sharp prolonged global recession that increases division and protectionism. Obama faces ineffective cabinet members and delays to healthcare and energy policies due to economic problems and partisan attacks.
3. The Waste of Vision scenario has the economy avoiding collapse through policy intervention, but partisan fighting and cultural divisions waste time on issues like healthcare and energy.
4. The Dream Emer
(1) The document aims to introduce the significance of Japan's international relations in politics, economics, and security with East Asia and the U.S.;
(2) Japan matters globally as the world's 3rd largest economy and domestically through its close political, economic, and security ties to the U.S. via their security treaty;
(3) In East Asia, Japan plays an important economic role and is taking on a more active political and security role to promote regional integration.
This document analyzes how U.S. foreign aid, military assistance, and foreign military sales from 1950-2007 were influenced more by pragmatism than ideology in response to world events. It examines trends in funding for these programs under different presidential administrations. It also provides specifics on aid given to Ethiopia and Somalia, noting how strategic and geopolitical reasons often drove assistance more than ideological factors.
The document discusses leadership changes in China and the US and the challenges in the relationship between the two countries. It summarizes Xi Jinping's diplomatic visit to the US in February as he prepared to take over leadership in China. While there are disagreements, both countries recognize their economic interdependence and the importance of cooperation. The leadership transitions in both countries will shape how China-US relations are redefined during a time of global challenges.
The document discusses the growing economic power and influence of China compared to the United States and Europe. It notes that China's economy is projected to surpass the U.S. economy in size within the next 10-15 years. It also discusses increasing Chinese investment and trade with the U.S. and Europe, as well as cyber intrusions by China that cost the U.S. billions annually. The document argues that while relations between China and the U.S./Europe may become strained at times due to economic competition and strategic differences, a new Cold War is unlikely given their high level of economic integration. Cooperation between the countries is important to maintain stability in the global order.
The document discusses US-China foreign policy relations and decision making processes. It examines the relationship between the two countries across several issues including security, currency exchange, financial matters, and human rights. It also analyzes cultural differences between China and the US that influence their relationship, as well as political ideologies like neoconservatism that shape US foreign policy approaches toward China. Containment versus engagement strategies for China's rise are also debated. Overall, the relationship remains complex due to differing political systems between the US and China.
a statistical software package
that helps address this flaw in strategy analysis.
The software analyzes what events may happen
in the future, gives their probability of occurrence, and provides the chance you will be surprised or blindsided by an unforeseen event.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
Barack Wins Scenarios By Gerald Harris2Gerald Harris
1. The Underfunded Agenda scenario describes a world with a long global recession that requires cooperation between political parties to find solutions. President Obama compromises on some promises due to economic conditions but oversees a withdrawal from wars and rebuilding of defense spending. By his second term, the economy is growing again.
2. The One Term Nightmare scenario involves a sharp prolonged global recession that increases division and protectionism. Obama faces ineffective cabinet members and delays to healthcare and energy policies due to economic problems and partisan attacks.
3. The Waste of Vision scenario has the economy avoiding collapse through policy intervention, but partisan fighting and cultural divisions waste time on issues like healthcare and energy.
4. The Dream Emer
(1) The document aims to introduce the significance of Japan's international relations in politics, economics, and security with East Asia and the U.S.;
(2) Japan matters globally as the world's 3rd largest economy and domestically through its close political, economic, and security ties to the U.S. via their security treaty;
(3) In East Asia, Japan plays an important economic role and is taking on a more active political and security role to promote regional integration.
This document analyzes how U.S. foreign aid, military assistance, and foreign military sales from 1950-2007 were influenced more by pragmatism than ideology in response to world events. It examines trends in funding for these programs under different presidential administrations. It also provides specifics on aid given to Ethiopia and Somalia, noting how strategic and geopolitical reasons often drove assistance more than ideological factors.
The document discusses leadership changes in China and the US and the challenges in the relationship between the two countries. It summarizes Xi Jinping's diplomatic visit to the US in February as he prepared to take over leadership in China. While there are disagreements, both countries recognize their economic interdependence and the importance of cooperation. The leadership transitions in both countries will shape how China-US relations are redefined during a time of global challenges.
The document discusses the growing economic power and influence of China compared to the United States and Europe. It notes that China's economy is projected to surpass the U.S. economy in size within the next 10-15 years. It also discusses increasing Chinese investment and trade with the U.S. and Europe, as well as cyber intrusions by China that cost the U.S. billions annually. The document argues that while relations between China and the U.S./Europe may become strained at times due to economic competition and strategic differences, a new Cold War is unlikely given their high level of economic integration. Cooperation between the countries is important to maintain stability in the global order.
US-AID from birth to its current state in PakistanAyesha Majid
US aid is one of the assistance funds program run by USA under the umbrella of US Foreign Assistance program.
The primary focus of the U.S. civilian-assistance program is to develop a stable, secure and tolerant Pakistan with a vibrant economy.
Working with other U.S. agencies, as well as donors and international development partners, USAID has focused its program over the last year on five areas essential to Pakistan’s stability and long-term development and reflective of Pakistani priorities: energy, economic growth, stabilization, education and health.
The purpose of this article is to analyze US foreign policy under the new White House administration and to present the most important aspects of Trump’s emerging doctrine, with the aim of
answering the following questions: what are the goals and tenets of, and the measures to implement,
the foreign policy outlined in the new US National Security Strategy? Which trends can be considered
dominant in Trump’s emerging doctrine? What challenges and threats to international security were
mentioned in the document? Do traditional US allies still play an important role in the superpower’s
security strategy? The thesis of this paper is that political realism is the main trend in Trump’s emerging
doctrine and that US foreign policy has taken a unilateral course, with a large dose of populism.
1) The document discusses the concepts of hard power and soft power in international relations. Hard power refers to military and economic coercion, while soft power involves diplomacy and cultural influence to gain consent without imposition.
2) It provides examples of the limitations of hard power, like the US facing challenges in Vietnam and Iraq, despite overwhelming military strength. Overreliance on hard power can reduce a nation's influence and breed opposition.
3) Soft power involves cooperation and appealing to other nations through cultural and ideological attraction rather than threats. The US emerged as a global hegemon after WWII by employing soft power through initiatives like the Marshall Plan to counter Soviet influence and promote democracy and American values abroad.
This document summarizes the key findings of a joint opinion poll conducted by think tanks in Japan, the US, China, and South Korea regarding perceptions of the future of Northeast Asia. The poll found:
1) Majorities in all four countries believe China's influence in Asia will continue increasing in the next decade, while fewer see US influence increasing.
2) Opinions are divided on which countries can best handle world problems, with Japanese and Americans having more confidence in the US and EU while Chinese and South Koreans have more confidence in China.
3) There are also differences in perceptions of which countries should assume global leadership, with Japanese and Americans citing the US while Chinese cite Russia.
Crisis and Opportunity
Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them.
The paper deals with the changing nature and manifestation of the ‘World Order’. The focus has been on nthe South Asian region. China has been undertaken the driver of this ‘New World Order’, and it is discussed that how it has become a challenge to the Indian Foreign Policy in the recent times – both regionally and globally. Chinese policies and India’s responses has been discussed. It further deals with the inherent weaknesses in the Chinese model and discusses that how the post-Cold war, globalized world is essentially a multi-polar world and no one country can establish itself as the superpower. The paper
attempts to deal with the various facets – from hard to soft power – and explains the nuances of the recent developments in the region and its implications at the global level and vice versa.
This document provides an introduction to concepts in international relations including what international relations studies, definitions of key terms like country, state, sovereignty, and nation-state. It also summarizes different approaches to foreign policy like isolationism vs internationalism and tools of foreign policy such as diplomacy, alliances, trade, foreign aid, and sanctions. Current world trends are outlined as growing interdependence, US influence declining and rise of other powers, spread of democracy and technology. National interests and how they drive foreign policy decisions are also explained.
Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2...StephenJimenez175
The document provides forecasts for several political, economic, and security issues from late 2009 through 2010. It predicts:
1) A major war breaking out between Israel and an Iranian-Syrian coalition within the next 18 months, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
2) The US economy will not fully recover in 2010 and unemployment will rise further, with a true fiscal and monetary crisis emerging in the next 4-7 years.
3) Within the next 24 months, the price of a barrel of oil will no longer be pegged to the US dollar, weakening US global economic influence.
The document discusses China's views on soft power and its development of a soft power strategy. It outlines two main schools of thought on soft power in China - the mainstream view that culture is the core of soft power, and a minority view that political power is the core. The leadership has embraced the culture view and is focusing on developing China's cultural resources and promoting Chinese culture abroad to increase its soft power. However, China still lacks a comprehensive national soft power strategy.
This document summarizes a presentation on using social media data to understand democratic breakdown and radicalization. It discusses how social media allows researchers to observe political sentiments at scale. Previous research on topics like anti-American sentiment on Arabic tweets and Chinese censorship are summarized. The presentation then discusses theories of democratic breakdown, noting economic crises, weak institutions, and elite disunity can contribute. Case studies of Peru and Chile are provided. The presentation concludes by discussing how machine learning and natural language processing can be applied to social media data to better understand public sentiment and identify those becoming radicalized in real-time, using the example of analyzing tweets related to ISIS.
This document discusses the differences between hard power and soft power in international relations. Hard power refers to coercion and military force, while soft power involves persuasion and attraction. It notes that after WWII, the US had significant hard and soft power, relying more on hard power after 9/11. Soft power involves attracting others through culture, values and policies. While hard power is sometimes necessary, many countries now focus on soft power approaches. The conclusion debates whether it is better for a country to be feared or loved in international relations.
This document provides background information on military spending in the United States. It discusses how military spending as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated over time, peaking during WWII and periods of war and declining during peacetime. It reviews literature on factors that influence public support for the military and military spending, such as perceptions of foreign threat, nationalism, and wartime contexts. The document also summarizes public opinion polls on support for specific wars like Vietnam and the Persian Gulf War. The overall purpose is to understand what drives public appreciation and support for the military and military spending.
The document provides an overview of chapter content on political developments in the late 19th century United States, including the rise of populism and segregation. It outlines three main sections on stalemate in Washington between Republicans and Democrats, the emergence of populism among farmers seeking economic relief, and increasing legal segregation of African Americans in the South. The chapter objectives and assessments are also listed.
This document provides an overview of a textbook chapter on the civil rights movement in the United States. It includes sections on the origins of the movement in the 1950s, challenges to segregation in the 1960s, and new issues emerging after 1968. Key events and organizations discussed include the Montgomery bus boycott led by Martin Luther King Jr., the founding of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the growing divide between King's approach and the black power movement. The document contains chapter summaries, objectives, reading strategies and questions to guide students through the text.
The document summarizes the economic environment of the United States from the 19th century to 2011. It discusses key trends such as the US having the largest economy in the world, a high level of per capita output, and being the largest global trading partner. It also examines structural changes in the US economy, including a shift away from industry towards services. Key metrics covered include GDP growth, household income, wealth, debt levels, important industries, and population/labor force size.
Seattle Chinese Chamber of Commerce - The US-China RelationshipBenjamin Shobert
What can we say about this key relationship in light of the 2016 Presidential election? What changes should we anticipate? How do we work together to ensure trade and investment between the two countries continues to grow?
This document discusses different types of balance of power in international relations. It defines balance of power as a state of equilibrium between competing forces that prevents any one entity from becoming too powerful. It then describes simple and complex balance of power, as well as local, regional, worldwide, rigid, and flexible balance of power. Simple balance involves two powers, like the US and USSR during the Cold War. Complex balance aims to preserve peace between warring nations. Regional balance maintains equilibrium within a geographical area, while worldwide balance concerns multiple regions. Rigid balance involves inflexible alliances, while flexible balance allows for changing alignments.
The document discusses the concept of balance of power in international relations. It defines balance of power as a distribution of power among states that prevents any one state from becoming too powerful. It operates through alliances, military buildups, and dividing powerful states. Balance of power is seen as important by some scholars but faces criticism for being uncertain and accepting war. Soft power, regional agreements, and economic ties are now also part of maintaining balances of power.
Dissertation in Politics - US Foreign Policy Decision Making in IraqVijay Luhan
This chapter introduces foreign policy analysis and its importance in understanding how the US made the decision to invade Iraq in 2003. Foreign policy analysis examines the process of decision making rather than just explaining why decisions were made. The chapter discusses how foreign policy analysis provides a framework to systematically study the sequence of events and decision making process leading up to the invasion. It will use Graham Allison's models of foreign policy analysis to examine how actors in the Bush administration were unified or divided in their interests regarding invading Iraq.
This paper analyzes how American foreign policy regarding military intervention has changed over the past two centuries. It compares policies during the early republic period from 1788-1816, focusing on the Quasi-War, Barbary War, and War of 1812, to more recent policies from 1947-2012 involving the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The analysis finds that early policies emphasized neutrality and limited intervention, while more recent policies reflect the growth of America as a global military power conducting numerous overseas interventions.
The document discusses the relationship between the US and China in 2020 according to the "two-good theory". The theory predicts that as China's economic and military power increases, it will seek more policy changes internationally. This is exemplified by China's territorial disputes with neighbors and calls to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Meanwhile, as US influence declines relatively, it will prioritize maintaining the status quo. The future relationship will test this theory as China continues pursuing changes while the US seeks to preserve its interests.
This document provides a Chinese perspective on China's changing role in Asia. It examines China's response to perceptions of its rise and discusses the principal concerns that shape its strategy toward Asia. China's strategy is also considered in relation to its relations with the United States. The document analyzes China's approach to regional economic cooperation and security issues, as well as its strategic vision for its role in the regional and global order.
US-AID from birth to its current state in PakistanAyesha Majid
US aid is one of the assistance funds program run by USA under the umbrella of US Foreign Assistance program.
The primary focus of the U.S. civilian-assistance program is to develop a stable, secure and tolerant Pakistan with a vibrant economy.
Working with other U.S. agencies, as well as donors and international development partners, USAID has focused its program over the last year on five areas essential to Pakistan’s stability and long-term development and reflective of Pakistani priorities: energy, economic growth, stabilization, education and health.
The purpose of this article is to analyze US foreign policy under the new White House administration and to present the most important aspects of Trump’s emerging doctrine, with the aim of
answering the following questions: what are the goals and tenets of, and the measures to implement,
the foreign policy outlined in the new US National Security Strategy? Which trends can be considered
dominant in Trump’s emerging doctrine? What challenges and threats to international security were
mentioned in the document? Do traditional US allies still play an important role in the superpower’s
security strategy? The thesis of this paper is that political realism is the main trend in Trump’s emerging
doctrine and that US foreign policy has taken a unilateral course, with a large dose of populism.
1) The document discusses the concepts of hard power and soft power in international relations. Hard power refers to military and economic coercion, while soft power involves diplomacy and cultural influence to gain consent without imposition.
2) It provides examples of the limitations of hard power, like the US facing challenges in Vietnam and Iraq, despite overwhelming military strength. Overreliance on hard power can reduce a nation's influence and breed opposition.
3) Soft power involves cooperation and appealing to other nations through cultural and ideological attraction rather than threats. The US emerged as a global hegemon after WWII by employing soft power through initiatives like the Marshall Plan to counter Soviet influence and promote democracy and American values abroad.
This document summarizes the key findings of a joint opinion poll conducted by think tanks in Japan, the US, China, and South Korea regarding perceptions of the future of Northeast Asia. The poll found:
1) Majorities in all four countries believe China's influence in Asia will continue increasing in the next decade, while fewer see US influence increasing.
2) Opinions are divided on which countries can best handle world problems, with Japanese and Americans having more confidence in the US and EU while Chinese and South Koreans have more confidence in China.
3) There are also differences in perceptions of which countries should assume global leadership, with Japanese and Americans citing the US while Chinese cite Russia.
Crisis and Opportunity
Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them.
The paper deals with the changing nature and manifestation of the ‘World Order’. The focus has been on nthe South Asian region. China has been undertaken the driver of this ‘New World Order’, and it is discussed that how it has become a challenge to the Indian Foreign Policy in the recent times – both regionally and globally. Chinese policies and India’s responses has been discussed. It further deals with the inherent weaknesses in the Chinese model and discusses that how the post-Cold war, globalized world is essentially a multi-polar world and no one country can establish itself as the superpower. The paper
attempts to deal with the various facets – from hard to soft power – and explains the nuances of the recent developments in the region and its implications at the global level and vice versa.
This document provides an introduction to concepts in international relations including what international relations studies, definitions of key terms like country, state, sovereignty, and nation-state. It also summarizes different approaches to foreign policy like isolationism vs internationalism and tools of foreign policy such as diplomacy, alliances, trade, foreign aid, and sanctions. Current world trends are outlined as growing interdependence, US influence declining and rise of other powers, spread of democracy and technology. National interests and how they drive foreign policy decisions are also explained.
Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2...StephenJimenez175
The document provides forecasts for several political, economic, and security issues from late 2009 through 2010. It predicts:
1) A major war breaking out between Israel and an Iranian-Syrian coalition within the next 18 months, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
2) The US economy will not fully recover in 2010 and unemployment will rise further, with a true fiscal and monetary crisis emerging in the next 4-7 years.
3) Within the next 24 months, the price of a barrel of oil will no longer be pegged to the US dollar, weakening US global economic influence.
The document discusses China's views on soft power and its development of a soft power strategy. It outlines two main schools of thought on soft power in China - the mainstream view that culture is the core of soft power, and a minority view that political power is the core. The leadership has embraced the culture view and is focusing on developing China's cultural resources and promoting Chinese culture abroad to increase its soft power. However, China still lacks a comprehensive national soft power strategy.
This document summarizes a presentation on using social media data to understand democratic breakdown and radicalization. It discusses how social media allows researchers to observe political sentiments at scale. Previous research on topics like anti-American sentiment on Arabic tweets and Chinese censorship are summarized. The presentation then discusses theories of democratic breakdown, noting economic crises, weak institutions, and elite disunity can contribute. Case studies of Peru and Chile are provided. The presentation concludes by discussing how machine learning and natural language processing can be applied to social media data to better understand public sentiment and identify those becoming radicalized in real-time, using the example of analyzing tweets related to ISIS.
This document discusses the differences between hard power and soft power in international relations. Hard power refers to coercion and military force, while soft power involves persuasion and attraction. It notes that after WWII, the US had significant hard and soft power, relying more on hard power after 9/11. Soft power involves attracting others through culture, values and policies. While hard power is sometimes necessary, many countries now focus on soft power approaches. The conclusion debates whether it is better for a country to be feared or loved in international relations.
This document provides background information on military spending in the United States. It discusses how military spending as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated over time, peaking during WWII and periods of war and declining during peacetime. It reviews literature on factors that influence public support for the military and military spending, such as perceptions of foreign threat, nationalism, and wartime contexts. The document also summarizes public opinion polls on support for specific wars like Vietnam and the Persian Gulf War. The overall purpose is to understand what drives public appreciation and support for the military and military spending.
The document provides an overview of chapter content on political developments in the late 19th century United States, including the rise of populism and segregation. It outlines three main sections on stalemate in Washington between Republicans and Democrats, the emergence of populism among farmers seeking economic relief, and increasing legal segregation of African Americans in the South. The chapter objectives and assessments are also listed.
This document provides an overview of a textbook chapter on the civil rights movement in the United States. It includes sections on the origins of the movement in the 1950s, challenges to segregation in the 1960s, and new issues emerging after 1968. Key events and organizations discussed include the Montgomery bus boycott led by Martin Luther King Jr., the founding of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the growing divide between King's approach and the black power movement. The document contains chapter summaries, objectives, reading strategies and questions to guide students through the text.
The document summarizes the economic environment of the United States from the 19th century to 2011. It discusses key trends such as the US having the largest economy in the world, a high level of per capita output, and being the largest global trading partner. It also examines structural changes in the US economy, including a shift away from industry towards services. Key metrics covered include GDP growth, household income, wealth, debt levels, important industries, and population/labor force size.
Seattle Chinese Chamber of Commerce - The US-China RelationshipBenjamin Shobert
What can we say about this key relationship in light of the 2016 Presidential election? What changes should we anticipate? How do we work together to ensure trade and investment between the two countries continues to grow?
This document discusses different types of balance of power in international relations. It defines balance of power as a state of equilibrium between competing forces that prevents any one entity from becoming too powerful. It then describes simple and complex balance of power, as well as local, regional, worldwide, rigid, and flexible balance of power. Simple balance involves two powers, like the US and USSR during the Cold War. Complex balance aims to preserve peace between warring nations. Regional balance maintains equilibrium within a geographical area, while worldwide balance concerns multiple regions. Rigid balance involves inflexible alliances, while flexible balance allows for changing alignments.
The document discusses the concept of balance of power in international relations. It defines balance of power as a distribution of power among states that prevents any one state from becoming too powerful. It operates through alliances, military buildups, and dividing powerful states. Balance of power is seen as important by some scholars but faces criticism for being uncertain and accepting war. Soft power, regional agreements, and economic ties are now also part of maintaining balances of power.
Dissertation in Politics - US Foreign Policy Decision Making in IraqVijay Luhan
This chapter introduces foreign policy analysis and its importance in understanding how the US made the decision to invade Iraq in 2003. Foreign policy analysis examines the process of decision making rather than just explaining why decisions were made. The chapter discusses how foreign policy analysis provides a framework to systematically study the sequence of events and decision making process leading up to the invasion. It will use Graham Allison's models of foreign policy analysis to examine how actors in the Bush administration were unified or divided in their interests regarding invading Iraq.
This paper analyzes how American foreign policy regarding military intervention has changed over the past two centuries. It compares policies during the early republic period from 1788-1816, focusing on the Quasi-War, Barbary War, and War of 1812, to more recent policies from 1947-2012 involving the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The analysis finds that early policies emphasized neutrality and limited intervention, while more recent policies reflect the growth of America as a global military power conducting numerous overseas interventions.
The document discusses the relationship between the US and China in 2020 according to the "two-good theory". The theory predicts that as China's economic and military power increases, it will seek more policy changes internationally. This is exemplified by China's territorial disputes with neighbors and calls to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Meanwhile, as US influence declines relatively, it will prioritize maintaining the status quo. The future relationship will test this theory as China continues pursuing changes while the US seeks to preserve its interests.
This document provides a Chinese perspective on China's changing role in Asia. It examines China's response to perceptions of its rise and discusses the principal concerns that shape its strategy toward Asia. China's strategy is also considered in relation to its relations with the United States. The document analyzes China's approach to regional economic cooperation and security issues, as well as its strategic vision for its role in the regional and global order.
This is a slide-set that I had used for a workshop conducted by the Indian School of Business on the Indo-Pacific on July 30, 2021.
It discusses the evolution of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and China's perceptions and policy responses.
Economic statecraft in China’s new overseas special economic zones: soft powe...Eric Olander
China’s rapid expansion of economic and political ties with other developing countries has aroused deep concern in the West and Japan. Much of this apprehen- sion focuses on China’s search for natural resources and its ‘no-political-strings- attached’ stance on official finance. Yet despite the popular unease provoked by China’s growing outward engagement, scholars have done relatively little research on the Chinese government’s strategic employment of its economic instruments overseas.1
1. How did the case study impact your thoughts about your own fina.docxrobert345678
1. How did the case study impact your thoughts about your own finances?
2. What were your thoughts and observations as you created your own balance sheet?
3. How might the balance sheet help you in future financial planning?
4. How close to reality do you think your estimated personal cash flow statement will be if you track your actual income and expenses for a month?
1. It gave me the desire to track my finances more closely and objectively. I liked how we can determine our net worth through some simple calculations and our inflows and outflows per month. Generally, I rely on simple finance apps like
Mint to track my finances. Currently, I do not create monthly budgets, but I now believe such action could be helpful.
2. I know that I have more assets than I am counting in the excel sheet. Therefore, my net worth is potentially higher. I also have a variety of streaming platforms.
I would benefit from switching from one platform to another month by month to save money. Streaming platforms are not a significant expense. Currently, my most considerable expense is transportation. Since gas prices are falling, this will help increase my surplus.
3. Accounting is math: it either works or doesn’t. Each can be traced from its inception (a sale, an expense, a money transfer) to the line on the financial statement. Since I don’t have much experience with financials, I try to seek out a mentor who is a family member. A balance sheet will ensure that I am not spending foolishly and ensure I am making appropriate purchases within the limits I set for myself. Proper planning will ensure I maximize my net worth.
4. It is important to consider cash flow when planning for the future
. It is important to save money every month in order to be able to make better financial decisions in the future. I hope to use some investing approaches for beginners to purchase funds without getting into debt. Most people underestimate how much they truly spend in a month. Therefore, I am underestimating how much I spend as well. I eat out quite a bit with friends and family, so my restaurant bill for the holidays might be higher than anticipated.
Foreign Policy Association
China and America
Author(s): David M. Lampton
Source: Great Decisions , 2018, (2018), pp. 35-46
Published by: Foreign Policy Association
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26593695
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide
range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and
facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
https://about.jstor.org/terms
Foreign Policy Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve.
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
This document proposes a strategic framework called "dynamic stability" for US strategy in a changing global landscape. It argues the world has entered a "Westphalian-Plus" era where nation-states must engage both with each other and powerful non-state actors, driven by disruptive technologies. The US previously pursued stability but now needs an approach that harnesses global changes, like shifting economic and military power to Asia. Dynamic stability involves adjusting the international system to new realities, engaging states and non-states, building coalitions, and having agile, resilient and transparent strategies. The US remains well-positioned for leadership by upholding values of prosperity, security and protecting global commons.
Chapter 1 Global Issues Challenges of GlobalizationA GROWING .docxtiffanyd4
Chapter 1 Global Issues: Challenges of Globalization
A GROWING WORLDWIDE CONNECTEDNESS IN THE AGE OF GLOBALIZATION HAS GIVEN CITIZENS MORE OF A VOICE TO EXPRESS THEIR DISSATISFACTION. In Brazil, Protestors calling for a wide range of reforms marched toward the soccer stadium where a match would be played between Brazil and Uruguay.
Learning Objectives
1. 1.1Identify important terms in international relations
2. 1.2Report the need to adopt an interdisciplinary approach in understanding the impact of new world events
3. 1.3Examine the formation of the modern states with respect to the thirty years’ war in 1618
4. 1.4Recall the challenges to the four types of sovereignty
5. 1.5Report that the European Union was created by redefining the sovereignty of its nations for lasting peace and security
6. 1.6Recall the influence exerted by the Catholic church, transnational companies, and other NGOs in dictating world events
7. 1.7Examine how globalization has brought about greater interdependence between states
8. 1.8Record the major causes of globalization
9. 1.9Review the most important forms of globalization
10. 1.10Recount the five waves of globalization
11. 1.11Recognize reasons as to why France and the US resist globalization
12. 1.12Examine the three dominant views of the extent to which globalization exists
Revolutions in technology, finance, transportation, and communications and different ways of thinking that characterize interdependence and globalization have eroded the power and significance of nation-states and profoundly altered international relations. Countries share power with nonstate actors that have proliferated as states have failed to deal effectively with major global problems.
Many governments have subcontracted several traditional responsibilities to private companies and have created public-private partnerships in some areas. This is exemplified by the hundreds of special economic zones in China, Dubai, and elsewhere. Contracting out traditional functions of government, combined with the centralization of massive amounts of data, facilitated Edward Snowden’s ability to leak what seems to be an almost unlimited amount of information on America’s spying activities.
The connections between states and citizens, a cornerstone of international relations, have been weakened partly by global communications and migration. Social media enable people around the world to challenge governments and to participate in global governance. The prevalence of mass protests globally demonstrates growing frustration with governments’ inability to meet the demands of the people, especially the global middle class.
The growth of multiple national identities, citizenships, and passports challenges traditional international relations. States that played dominant roles in international affairs must now deal with their declining power as global power is more diffused with the rise of China, India, Brazil, and other emerging market countries. States are i.
Liu He (Harvard MPA´95) compares two global crises: the Great Depression of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2008. This study was published in China in the summer of 2012. The objective of the project was to understand past events in order “to navigate the ongoing financial crisis safely and respond more proactively by learning from history.” With the perspective of an insider who supported Chinese leaders in making choices that allowed China’s economy not only to weather the crisis, but to outperform all other economies since the crisis, he provides a nuanced account of the past and astute clues for the future. While he doesn’t say so, the brute fact is that since the 2008 financial crisis, nearly 40% of all the growth in the global economy has taken place in just one country: China, despite its having only 15% of the world’s population and less than 20% of its income.
Original is at https://book.douban.com/subject/21964791/
China: Dimensions of the Dragon’s Rise in International Influence and Its Imp...CrimsonPublishersAAOA
Mao said, “The world is in chaos, the situation is excellent” [1].
China has achieved spectacular progress in face of immense difficulties. It has maintained a rapid pace of economic growth for over twenty-five years without significant political liberalization. In only three decades, China has risen to become a global economic power.
https://crimsonpublishers.com/aaoa/fulltext/AAOA.000507.php
For more open access journals in Crimson Publishers please click on link: https://crimsonpublishers.com/
For more articles in open access Archaeology journals please click on link: https://crimsonpublishers.com/aaoa/
A Pragmatic Grand Strategy towards ChinaKaran Khosla
Daniel Guelen
E-mail: daniel.guelen@columbia.edu
Published May 4, 2020
Abstract
China’s rise brings various issues to the international stage. Terms such as the Thucydides Trap and Trade Wars have become common language and many fear for conflict between the United States and China. Especially in the 21st century, the relationship between the US and China will define the world. However, this paper argues that China does not pose a threat to the United States and the international order as the economic, military, and political circumstances do not facilitate such a great power tension. By directly analyzing the relationship between the US and China in these three areas, two policy recommendations can be drawn. This paper brings forth a dual grand strategy for the US to improve and support its domestic position to compete globally and present a more accessible alternative to lead internationally by building a more inclusive coalition and deterring some of China’s aggressions in South East Asia. As the world becomes more multipolar, the ability to balance power, engage developing nations, and build alliances will prove to be critical to any strategy.
Keywords: China; United States; foreign policy; great power tension; international security; Thucydides Trap; international order; trade wars; counterhegemony; South East Asia.
The document discusses Xi Jinping's ideological beliefs and how they are shaping China's politics and foreign policy. It argues that under Xi, Marxism-Leninism has returned as the guiding ideology in China after Deng Xiaoping moved away from Mao-era orthodoxy. Xi bases his thinking on historical materialism and dialectical materialism. He believes in China's inevitable rise and the decline of capitalist systems like the US. Xi has consolidated power within the Communist Party and increased control over China's economy and society. His ideological vision emphasizes the party's role and places China on what he sees as the right side of history.
Xi jinping’s operational code beliefs and china’s foreign policyPhyo Min
This document provides an outline and summary of an article analyzing Xi Jinping's operational code beliefs and how they shape China's foreign policy. The article examines Xi's beliefs through his public statements using statistical analysis. It also compares Xi's beliefs to his predecessor, Hu Jintao. The document outlines the article's analysis of China's foreign policy approach through realism, liberalism and constructivism lenses.
Decoding china’s emerging “great power” strategy in asiangocjos
This document provides an overview of the domestic political context in China surrounding the leadership transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. It notes that the leadership transition proceeded smoothly according to the standards of the Chinese Communist Party. While there was political infighting, most notably with the downfall of Bo Xilai, the succession was relatively peaceful and on schedule. The document discusses how Xi Jinping has quickly consolidated power within the Communist Party despite constraints, accumulating more authority faster than expected. It remains to be seen how this will impact Xi's agenda and China's trajectory under his leadership.
This document summarizes a research study on perspectives of risk in international development. It provides background on USAID and discusses how Carol Horning observed cultural insensitivity in USAID's risk assessments and agenda implementation, often leading to failure. The study examines perceptions of risk from socioeconomic and cultural standpoints using Georgia as a case study. It defines different types of risk and discusses relevant theories including Lewin's Field Theory and the Cultural Theory of Risk. It also summarizes interviews with experts on how to properly conduct risk assessments and the importance of long-term commitment and funding.
The document discusses the political and economic characteristics of the "China Model" of development. It describes how China has achieved remarkable economic growth while maintaining political autonomy and sovereignty. After Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping embraced economic reforms and globalization, opening China to foreign trade and investment. This allowed China to benefit from technology and market access while maintaining a centralized authoritarian government controlled by the Communist Party. The model has been viewed positively due to China's success in reducing poverty and maintaining stability, though it also faces challenges from inequality and environmental issues. The rise of the "China Model" is gaining international interest as an alternative to liberal democracy models.
US Foreign Policy in Middle East Problems and Perspectivesijtsrd
In this article, the author examines what role the Middle East region plays in the foreign strategy of the United States of America and the main approaches of the US administrations to the region. It also provides recommendations on the future behavioral role of the United States in the Middle East. Fuzail Makhmudov "US Foreign Policy in Middle East: Problems and Perspectives" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-1 , December 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd47943.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/political-science/47943/us-foreign-policy-in-middle-east-problems-and-perspectives/fuzail-makhmudov
China has expanded its economic and diplomatic relations with Latin America since the 1970s. It views the region as important for trade, investment, and asserting its role as a global power. Key aspects of the relationship include:
1) Growing trade and investment ties, including free trade agreements and Chinese financing of infrastructure projects in the region.
2) China sees Latin America as a source of natural resources and a market for its exports, while Latin American countries see China as an alternative partner to the US and Europe.
3) There are some concerns about the environmental and social impacts of Chinese investment in sensitive areas and state-led development model undermining governance, but overall the relationship is seen as mutually beneficial.
1) The document discusses the historical role and power of nation-states in international politics and foreign policy. It argues that the power of nation-states, especially the United States, is eroding due to forces of globalization and the rise of non-state actors.
2) It analyzes factors that historically contributed to US power such as its military capabilities and geopolitical advantages. However, it asserts that organizations like NGOs and IGOs are now undermining state sovereignty and US hegemony through shared decision-making and increasing economic interdependence between states.
3) The rise of transnational threats like terrorism exemplify how non-state groups can challenge states, and globalization is enhancing the
Similar to Understanding the america's shift to the east using the foreign policy decision model (20)
Understanding the america's shift to the east using the foreign policy decision model
1. UNDERSTANDING AMERICA’S SHIFT TO THE EAST USING THE FOREIGN POLICY
DECISION MODEL
Joshua Peterson
Student# 4319065
IRLS 502 – International Political Systems
Dr. Andrew Bosworth
American Military University - October 15, 2012
2. 2
UNDERSTANDING AMERICA’S SHIFT TO THE EAST USING THE FOREIGN POLICY
DECISION MODEL
The Foreign Policy Decision Making Model is a structural framework that analysts and
policymakers often use to guide them in formalizing and understanding the decision-making
process. This model assists policymakers in synthesizing a multitude of factors that may
influence foreign policy. The book, World Politics: Trends and Transformations, describes the
foreign policy decision making framework as three components.
The first component includes that the policymaker ponders several questions, which may
include: What are the current global conditions and the problem? What is happening in world
politics and does it provide the setting for international decision making? 1 Once the event(s)
have been determined, policy responses will be formulated based on state objectives and
potential outcomes to each response.
The second component consists of leaders that will consider internal characteristics of the
state. The internal characteristics of the state are "defined by their own attributes, which also act
to determine the actor’s foreign policy choices." 2 The leader must ask the following questions:
What is the populace's view of the adversary? What actions have been taken by the adversary to
support or weaken the state's position? What financial resources are available to implement a
possible strategy or strategies? Are there any roadblocks from a legal or organizational
perspective that would prevent the actor to engage in a foreign policy decision? The policy
maker will determine goal selections based on the events.
The third component of the decision making model suggests that the leader holds a set of
____________________
1. Kegley, Charles W. and Shannon L. Blanton. World Politics: Trends and Transformations,
2011-2012 Update Edition, 13th Edition. Cengage Learning. Kindle Edition, 2011.
2. Ibid, 4907-4908.
3. 3
strong personal characteristics. The strong personal characteristics of the leader include moral
values, a solid personal approach to relationship building, and the ability to deal with conflict.
The leader needs these strong characteristics in order to determine the alternatives to the event.
This research paper will analyze the Obama Administration’s stated "pivot" towards East
Asia as it continues to wind down operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The United States (U.S.)
officials have commented that a shift in strategy is due to the interest of re-confirming U.S.
economic and security interests to U.S. partners in the region. According to Andrew Nathan and
Andrew Scobell in a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, the Chinese rebuttal to that
statement is that the "United States cannot be satisfied with the existence of a powerful China"
and that "as China rises, the United States will resist.” 3
The current global considerations that the United States policymakers must consider are
the rising economic and military power of China. The U.S. must consider a diminishing
dominance in the North and South Pacific as China assumes a more muscular posture against the
U.S. allies in the region; as well as attempting to impose self-serving economic and foreign
policy interests in the region. Internally, leaders must consider the economic impact of a
competing economic powerhouse and how this would affect the quality of life of the
citizenry. China has long been accused of unfair trade practices that include currency
manipulation, product dumping, and unfair state subsidies to strategically important
industries. In addition, corporate espionage has become a significant threat to the U.S. global
competitive advantage. Some critics have stated that these factors have translated to a weakened
U.S. manufacturing base and a loss of high paying American manufacturing jobs.
___________________
3. Nathan, Andrew J. and Andrew Scobell. “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October
(2012): 32-47.
4. 4
The Obama Administration is seen as having two grand strategies. The first strategy is one
of "multilateral retrenchment designed to curtail the United States' overseas commitments." 4 The
second strategy is focused on asserting "influence and ideals across the globe when challenged
by other countries, reassuring allies and signaling resolve to rivals." 5 When approaching these
two ideals, which appear on the surface to be diametrically opposed, the analyst must take in to
consideration these two strategies of "Obama Doctrine" when explaining the U.S. focus on the
shift to East Asia. The Obama Administration must monitor the balance of power effect, not
only in the region, but also on a global scale while trying to secure a policy strategy that will win
a two level game.
At a January 2011 meeting between the U.S. President Barack Obama and the Chinese
President Hu Jintao, both leaders exchanged their obligatory niceties. The "United States
reiterated that it welcomes a strong, prosperous, and successful China that plays a greater role in
world affairs. China welcomed the United States as an Asia-Pacific nation that contributes to
peace, stability and prosperity in the region." 6 Despite these pleasant verbal exchanges, the
United States policymakers approach to China is strategically complex. Some hardliners within
the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and analysts, see the rise of China as re-emergence to
their rightful position in the world. The liberal international relations theorists argue that the
current international order is defined by economic and political openness, and that it can
accommodate China's rise peacefully. Realist theorists contend that due to China's growing
strength, they will
__________________________
4. Drezner, Daniel W. “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 July/August (2011): 57-68.
5. Ibid.
6. Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 44-55.
5. 5
pursue its interests more assertively, which could lead to a hegemonic war between the two great
powers. These two theories, and the possible outcomes, must be considered when using the
Foreign Policy Decision Making Model.
Current Global Conditions – Economic Considerations
The first global reality that U.S. policymakers must face is the rapidly growing Chinese
economy. The U.S. leaders must consider the global consequences of a rising China and how it
will affect the U.S. and the current economic world order. One of Deng Xiaoping's teachings
was that of "tao guano yang hui, or keeping a low profile in international affairs" 7 and is seen as
evidence of China's peaceful rise. However, opponents see it as "hiding one's capabilities and
biding one's time" until "China has enough material power and confidence to promote its hidden
agenda." 8
China continues to view itself as a growing and developing nation. Statistical data
collected from 1981 to 2005, indicated that the proportion of China's population living on less
than $1/day is estimated to have fallen from 85% to 15%. These numbers show that
approximately 600 million people were taken out of poverty.” 9 According to Chinese officials,
there are still over 400 million people that live on less than $2 per day. In 2011, the country's
income per capita was $8,500, six times lower than the United States. However, the income per
capita growth of China has increased a cumulative 136% over 10 years and over 2,600% since
the Deng Xioaping's "economic revolution".
__________________
7. Jisi, Wang. “China's Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 March/April (2011): 68-79.
8. Ibid.
9. Sicular, T. X., B. Yue, B. Gustafsson, and S. Li. “The Urban-Rural Income Gap and Inequality in China.”
Review of Income and Wealth 53, 1 (2007): 93-126.
6. 6
On a larger scale, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $11.4 trillion in 2011,
which makes it the second largest economy in the world behind the United States. The GDP
growth rates have averaged over 8.0% per annum for the last 10 years. In speculation, if China
were to maintain its current growth rates, it is projected to be the largest economy in the world
within 10-15 years.
This significant growth may embolden China. Some analysts believe that this type of
economic heft may leave China attempting to play by their own rules as "the current world order
was built largely without Chinese participation." 10 This turn of events may well establish the
global economic status quo. Kissinger has stated, "where the order does not suit Chinese
preferences, Beijing has set up alternative arrangements." 11 It is important for leaders to realize
that China has consistently sought to alter or disrupt the current economic world order by
proposing the yuan, as a means to conduct and settle international transactions. For example,
during a G-20 summit in November 2008, Chinese president Hu Jiantao "called for a new
international financial order that is fair, just, inclusive and orderly." 12 His comments were in
response to America's role in the global economic collapse of 2008.
It is important for the United States to consider China's economic position and influence
within the regional intergovernmental organizations (IGO). The Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) one of the most visible and influential regional IGOs, has been a forum where
the United States could represent their interests.
_________________________
10. Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 44-55.
11. Ibid.
12. Mallaby, Sebastian. “The Future of the Yuan,” Foreign Affairs 91 (2012): 135-138.
7. 7
"Strategic elites in Asia continue to view the United States and an essential strategic balancer,
vital to stability." 13 However, as China wealth and influence becomes stronger within these
organizations, they will use their power to construct trade and security alliances that would be in
their self-interests. These interests may oppose and/or displace U.S. interests.
Current Global Conditions - Military Considerations
Policymakers in Washington must implement the rising status of the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) into the decision matrix framework. "Although U.S. forces would ultimately
prevail in a military crisis or conflict, Beijing might be able to impose serious risks and costs on
the U.S. military if the United States concludes that it was necessary to commit air and naval
forces to battle with China in defense of Taiwan." 14 According to Brown, et al., the Council on
Foreign Relations Independent Task Force Report has pointed out that, “the PRC is currently
engaged in a comprehensive military modernization."15 This power shift is viewed as a threat to
the current Obama Administration for the following reasons: 1) there is a threat to the security
agreement with countries within the region, specifically close U.S. allies, such as, Japan, Taiwan
and South Korea and; 2) there is a threat to the effectiveness of the U.S. influence in the
region. However, as China's strength and influence has grown, "the United States has bolstered
its own capabilities in the region, enhanced its strategic cooperation with traditional allies, and
built new partnerships with other countries that share its concerns, such as India and
Singapore.” 16
_____________________________________________________
13. Feigenbaum, Evan A. and Robert A. Manning. The United States in the New Asia. New York: Council on
Foreign Relations Special Report No. 50, 2009.
14. Brown, Harold, Joseph W. Prucher and Adam Segal. Chinese Military Power. New York: Council on Foreign
Relations, 2003.
15. Ibid, 7.
16. Friedberg, Aaron L. “Bucking Beijing,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October (2012): 48-58.
8. 8
The PLA's modernization plan is two-pronged. It has indicated that China is "developing
limited power projection capabilities to deal with a range of possible conflict scenarios along its
periphery" and secondly, to "defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial interests and to pose a
credible threat to Taiwan in order to influence Taiwan's choices about its political future." 17
The White House and the Pentagon are particularly focused on what is described as PLA's "anti-
access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities." 18 These weapons systems pose a serious threat to the
U.S. as "China can target virtually every air base and port in the western Pacific, as well as
threaten to sink enemy surface vessels (including U.S. aircraft carriers) operating hundreds of
miles off its coasts. "19
Chinese spending on military equipment and modernization has risen significantly over
the past decade. The PLA's military systems acquisition program with Russia has focused on
upgrading their air-to-air and air-to-ground systems through the acquisition of advanced jet
fighter aircraft and improving their maritime capabilities by acquiring (albeit outdated) aircraft
carrier technology. Cyber and communications technologies may be the most effective and may
act as the greatest deterrence against "hostile actions" within the region by the U.S. "Chinese
intrusions into U.S. power grids or other critical infrastructure, especially when evidence is left
behind, act as a warning that the U.S. homeland may not be immune to attack in the case of a
conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea."20
________________________________
17. Brown, 8.
18. Friedberg, 53.
19. Ibid.
20. Segal, Adam. “Chinese Computer Games,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 14-20.
9. 9
Internal Characteristics of the State - Internal Perception
The second component of the decision framework focuses on internal characteristics and
the internal view of global events or perceptions of global competitors or adversaries. These
global competitors and adversaries include policymakers and citizens in the U.S. who view that
the economic rise of China is at the expense of U.S. businesses and jobs. Corporate espionage,
unfair trade practices, and government subsidies top the long list of grievances by American
workers and business owners.
The slow loss of America's manufacturing base has come to the forefront over the last
several decades. The U.S. manufacturing firms have slowly atrophied over the decades due to
trade agreements, such as, North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). However,
policymakers and their constituents have been quick to place the blame on China due to the
rapidity of the transition and restructuring It is believed that "importing inexpensive goods
manufactured abroad by low-wage laborers, and exporting U.S. capital to finance such
manufacturing in China and elsewhere, tends to lower the wages of U.S. manufacturing workers,
to put competing U.S. plants out of business, and to eliminate U.S. manufacturing jobs. Since
2001, more than 2 million U.S. jobs may have been lost due to trade with China." 21
China has openly admitted to "industrial espionage directed at foreign high-tech
companies" because the Chinese government "desperately wants its economy to move up the
value chain." 22 China has acknowledged that their industrial espionage program is widespread
and extensive.
____________________________
21. Benjamin Page, Xie Tao, and Andrew J. Nathan, Living with the Dragon: How the American Public
Views the Rise of China (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), 17.
22. Segal, 16.
10. 10
The Chinese have been able to establish access to proprietary information by cyber-attacks or by
"simply walking in through the front door by buying into foreign companies or selling them
products that could give China access to technology and information." 23
The economic accomplishments of China have been impressive over the past forty
years. Up to this point, the economic relationship has been mutually beneficial. China has
become an export machine, exporting $411 billion of manufactured goods to the U.S. from a
base of $337 million in 1973. This export machine has brought hundreds of millions of Chinese
out of poverty and it has provided Americans with cheap goods. These "cheap Chinese
consumer products saved American consumers $600 billion from 1995 to 2005." 24
However, the U.S. has launched several complaints to the World Trade Organization and has
accused China of dumping cheap exports into the U.S. and the global economy.
At the center of this accusation is the claim that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is
subsidizing the businesses that manufacture the products. The reasoning behind the actions
could be two-fold: 1) China wants to ensure they maintain control of particular manufacturing
bases by offering cheaper products, that other competitors cannot match, and; 2) China needs to
maintain its growth by continuing to address its remaining poor, and preparing a safety net to
take care of an aging population.
Internal Characteristics of a Leader
Prior to Barack Obama’s election to office, the Administration campaigned for a foreign
policy approach that focused on retrenchment and repositioning. President Obama wanted to
look less like a hegemonic, imperial power and more like an equal contributor in an increasingly
___________________________
23. Friedberg, 57.
24. Page, 16.
11. 11
multipolar world. President Obama and his advisors knew that the global world order was
changing. Some individuals considered his blanket apology to the world for being an arrogant
superpower as repugnant. However, President Obama believed that this was necessary to
encourage an open, candid dialogue between the growing countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and
China (BRIC), specifically China. However, given the Obama doctrine of retrenchment, it is
important to have an implementation of policy and actions that keep China's ambitions under
control. It is important to consider those policies and actions that are related to disputed
territorial claims that would threaten U.S. security agreements with allies in the region.
Conclusion
The factors identified in this research paper which were part of the Foreign Policy
Decision Making model have provided justification for the Obama Administration's shift to the
east. Policymakers may utilize this decision making model to come to final choice to guide the
implementation of a directed foreign policy. The Foreign Policy Decision Making Model
recognizes and defines the problem. The problem identified is a rising China and its effects on
the U.S. economic and political influence. In addition, the model determines goal selection. The
Obama Administration's goal was to support a strengthening China, but to also limit its
ambitions, by allowing some growth, but also keeping China in a box. Lastly, the policymakers
identified alternatives. The administration's alternatives were basic, and supported China’s
growth, realizing the impending multipolar world order or to proceed in a more combative
approach. A realist approach would disallow the administration from achieving a win in a two-
level game strategy. The last part of the model focused on choice. Policymakers make decisions
based off of an extensive cost-benefit analysis. The Obama Administration, nor any future
administration cannot afford a combative, realist approach to China. Economic interdependence
12. 12
would ensure that hostile actions on either side would ensure mutually assured economic
destruction. This fact is why the U.S. strategic shift to the East was a correct choice.
13. 13
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Brown, Harold, Joseph W. Prucher and Adam Segal. Chinese Military Power. New York:
Council on Foreign Relations, 2003.
Drezner, Daniel W. “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 July/August
(2011): 57-68.
Feigenbaum, Evan A. and Robert A. Manning. The United States in the New Asia. New York:
Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No. 50, 2009.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “Bucking Beijing,” Foreign Affairs 91 September/October (2012): 48-58.
Jisi, Wang. “China's Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 90 March/April (2011):
68-79.
Kegley, Charles W. and Shannon L. Blanton. World Politics: Trends and Transformations,
2011-2012 Update Edition, 13th Edition. Cengage Learning. Kindle Edition, 2011.
Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S. - Chinese Relations,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April
(2012): 44-55.
Mallaby, Sebastian. “The Future of the Yuan,” Foreign Affairs 91 (2012): 135-138.
Nathan, Andrew J. and Andrew Scobell. “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs 91
September/October (2012): 32-47.
Page, Benjamin, Xie Tao, and Andrew J. Nathan. Living with the Dragon. How the
American Public Views the Rise of China. New York. Columbia University Press, 2010.
Segal, Adam. “Chinese Computer Games,” Foreign Affairs 91 March/April (2012): 14-20.
Sicular, T. X., B. Yue, B. Gustafsson, and S. Li. “The Urban-Rural Income Gap and Inequality
in China.” Review of Income and Wealth 53, 1 (2007): 93-126.