2. Yesterday I uploaded an article with the statements of the Israeli Minister
of Defence, according to which ISIS is funded with Turkish money. See
“The Geopolitics of Anti-Semitism”
http://iakovosal.blogspot.gr/2016/01/blog-post_26.html
Map 1
I was also saying that the only way to interpret this statement is as public
support to Russia over the Turkish-Russian rivalry. What else could it be?
Everyone who is following even a bit the international news knows that
in the Syrian war Turkey is supporting the Syrian Sunni Islamists, and in
the Iraqi war Turkey is supporting the Iraqi Sunni Islamists. To be more
accurate Turkey is supporting a part of the Iraqi and Syrian Sunni
Islamists, because another part is supported by Saudi Arabia.
Therefore it is obvious that the Israeli Minister of Defence did not want to
improve our understanding over the wars in the Middle East when he was
talking about the connections between Turkey and ISIS. Neither he
wanted to cause further deterioration to the Turkish-Israeli relations. The
3. only thing he could possibly wanted could be to please Russia. By
pleasing Russia the Israeli army can keep targeting in Syria the arms sent
by Iran to Hezbollah in South Lebanon.
Moreover the statement of the Israeli minister should not be interpreted as
something final for the Israeli-Turkish, the Israeli-Russian, but also the
Russian-Turkish relations, given how much Israel and Russia need
Turkey. These events should be examined on a day to day basis rather
than used to make long term predictions, because things change very
quickly. In the past the Turks have asked the Israelis to lift Gaza’s naval
blockade in order for the Turks to consider normalization of the Turkish-
Israeli relations, and also the possibility of importing Israeli natural gas.
Map 2 Gaza
4. I was under the impression that the Israelis could not agree to lift Gaza’s
blockade because they would effectively allow Turkey, Qatar and Iran to
send Hamas thousands of rockets, and Hamas would soon become a
second Hezbollah. The reason Hezbollah is so more powerful than Hamas
is because it is much easier for Iran to arm Hezbollah through Syria,
something not possible for Hamas since Gaza is blockaded by Israel and
Egypt.
5. However I read an article by Al Monitor, which says that there are voices
in Israel which are in favour of lifting Gaza’s blockade in order to
normalize relations with Turkey. They mean of course that Israel should
at the same time control all the ships reaching Gaza in order to prevent
Turkey, Iran and Qatar from sending rockets to Hamas. See “Why hasn't
Israel lifted the Gaza blockade”, January 2016
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/israel-gaza-blockade-
bennett-objects-failure-netanyahu.html?utm_source=Al-
Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=bafcac2404-
January_22_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-
bafcac2404-102393785
Therefore lifting Gaza’s naval blockade is not a black or white thing, and
according to some Israelis it should be put on the table, in order to please
Erdogan. Erdogan would use the lift of Gaza’s blockade to present
himself as the leader who freed Gaza, and that would greatly enhance in
the Muslim world. However the Egyptians have asked the Israelis to keep
Turkey out of Gaza, because Turkey, Iran and Qatar do not use Gaza to
only attack Israel, but also to attack Egypt. See “Egypt asks Israel to
prevent Turkish involvement in Gaza”, January 2016.
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_report-egypt-asks-israel-to-
prevent-turkish-involvement-in-gaza_409116.html
I do not think that the Israelis would risk to hurt their cooperation with
the Egyptians against the Islamists. But remember that after the discovery
of the Egyptian gas field (Zohr) in August 2015, Egypt might want to
export gas to Turkey, and Turkey might want to import gas from Egypt.
Turkey actually said that she would consider recognizing the Egyptian
6. President al Sisi if the Egyptian socialists were willing to relax their
stance against the Egyptian Islamsits. See “Turkey agrees to recognize
Sisi in exchange for Brotherhood pardon”, January 2016
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_turkey-agrees-to-recognize-
sisi-in-exchange-for-brotherhood-pardon_409989.html?
utm_source=Active+Subscribers&utm_campaign=88bc0e2b53-
MR_012016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_35c49cbd51-
88bc0e2b53-64197533
Therefore everything is open in the Russia- Israel- Turkey triangle, and
predictions are very risky. What I want to say with all the above is that
the statement of the Israeli Defence Minister about Turkey and ISIS
definitely meant to show Israeli support towards Russia over the Turkish-
Russian confrontation. But one cannot say for sure whether this was a
“gift” that Russia will reward in the short term by tolerating Israeli
operations in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah, or whether it shows a
willingness of Russia and Israeli for a longer term cooperation against
Turkey. I would say that it is probably the first. After all it seems that
nowadays international relations exist only in the short term. Everything
changes very fast to talk about long term international relations.
7. President al Sisi if the Egyptian socialists were willing to relax their
stance against the Egyptian Islamsits. See “Turkey agrees to recognize
Sisi in exchange for Brotherhood pardon”, January 2016
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_turkey-agrees-to-recognize-
sisi-in-exchange-for-brotherhood-pardon_409989.html?
utm_source=Active+Subscribers&utm_campaign=88bc0e2b53-
MR_012016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_35c49cbd51-
88bc0e2b53-64197533
Therefore everything is open in the Russia- Israel- Turkey triangle, and
predictions are very risky. What I want to say with all the above is that
the statement of the Israeli Defence Minister about Turkey and ISIS
definitely meant to show Israeli support towards Russia over the Turkish-
Russian confrontation. But one cannot say for sure whether this was a
“gift” that Russia will reward in the short term by tolerating Israeli
operations in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah, or whether it shows a
willingness of Russia and Israeli for a longer term cooperation against
Turkey. I would say that it is probably the first. After all it seems that
nowadays international relations exist only in the short term. Everything
changes very fast to talk about long term international relations.
