This document provides a summary of regional political developments in Cyprus, Egypt, Israel-Palestine, Syria, and the Western Balkans based on reports from the Global Political Trends Center in December 2015. Updates include Turkish and Russian visits to Cyprus, Egypt's parliamentary elections and economic reforms, escalating clashes in Israel-Palestine, opposition conferences in Syria, and diplomatic issues in the Western Balkans.
The issue covers the recent Islamic Food Security Organisation Assembly meeting in Astana, Foreign Minister’s participation in CICA Meeting where he presented Kazakhstan President’s Peace Initiatives, and touristic Southern Kazakhstan that meets early spring weather this year.
In Focus part of the issue, as usual, contains news related to the foreign policy priorities of Kazakhstan highlighting its nonproliferation efforts, attracting investments and preparing for EXPO 2017 Astana.
The article analyzes the structure, content, properties and effects of the
Russian-Ukrainian ‘hybrid war’ in its non-military dimension. Particular emphasis is
placed on the aspect of the information and propaganda war, as well as activities in
cyberspace. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is described in the context of the new war
strategy of General Valery Gerasimov. Contemporary practice of hybrid actions in the
conflict in Ukraine has revealed that, for the first time, a stronger opponent, Russia,
uses the full spectrum of hybrid interaction on an opponent who is weak and unable
to defend the integrity of its territory. The military conflict of 2014 showed not only
the weakness of the Ukrainian state, but also, more importantly, the inefficiency of the
organizations responsible for ensuring international security: NATO, OSCE and the
UN. In the longer term, it should be noted that the escalation of hybrid activities in
Ukraine clearly threatens the states on the Eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The analysis conducted refers to the problem defined in the form of questions: what
is the essence of hybrid operations? What is the nature of non-military hybrid operations? What was the course of these activities in Ukraine? How was international law
interpreted in relation to this conflict?
The world hybrid war: Ukrainian forefront. Volodymyr HorbulinDonbassFullAccess
In this multi-authored monograph the scholars of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine present an unprecedented study of the phenomenon of the world hybrid war, which manifested itself in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The nature of the hybrid war was analyzed in the context of the global security crisis and was studied as a new type of global confrontation. This monograph is a complex analysis of the causes and preconditions of the Russian aggression against Ukraine with respect to the strategic purposes and special aspects of conduct in various dimensions including military, political, economic, social, humanitarian, and informational. This monograph also presents research of the local success of our country in resisting the hostile plans of the Russian Federation in certain areas. The conclusion reached by this study is that Ukraine is capable of fighting against an aggressor for her sovereignty. The reformation of international security institutions and attainment of balance of power in the new hybrid reality are also addressed in the monograph. This book is meant for politicians, political analysts, senior government officials and scientists in the field of security studies. The research results would also be interesting for academia, representatives of civil society, as well as patriotic and responsible citizens.
Cultural Destruction and War Crimes in the Middle EastStephen Cheng
This is a translation of an article from German-Foreign-Policy.com on Donald Trump's threats of imposing new sanctions on Iraq for demanding the withdrawal of all foreign military forces and razing Iran's cultural monuments. The article also mentions the German government's decision to go along with the Trump administration on these matters and the consequences of sanctions on Iraq during the 1990s. The original article is here: https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/8146/
German-Foreign-Policy.com is somewhat comparable to the North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA; https://nacla.org/ ) and the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP; https://merip.org/).
The translation follows and all errors are mine.
The issue covers the recent Islamic Food Security Organisation Assembly meeting in Astana, Foreign Minister’s participation in CICA Meeting where he presented Kazakhstan President’s Peace Initiatives, and touristic Southern Kazakhstan that meets early spring weather this year.
In Focus part of the issue, as usual, contains news related to the foreign policy priorities of Kazakhstan highlighting its nonproliferation efforts, attracting investments and preparing for EXPO 2017 Astana.
The article analyzes the structure, content, properties and effects of the
Russian-Ukrainian ‘hybrid war’ in its non-military dimension. Particular emphasis is
placed on the aspect of the information and propaganda war, as well as activities in
cyberspace. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is described in the context of the new war
strategy of General Valery Gerasimov. Contemporary practice of hybrid actions in the
conflict in Ukraine has revealed that, for the first time, a stronger opponent, Russia,
uses the full spectrum of hybrid interaction on an opponent who is weak and unable
to defend the integrity of its territory. The military conflict of 2014 showed not only
the weakness of the Ukrainian state, but also, more importantly, the inefficiency of the
organizations responsible for ensuring international security: NATO, OSCE and the
UN. In the longer term, it should be noted that the escalation of hybrid activities in
Ukraine clearly threatens the states on the Eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The analysis conducted refers to the problem defined in the form of questions: what
is the essence of hybrid operations? What is the nature of non-military hybrid operations? What was the course of these activities in Ukraine? How was international law
interpreted in relation to this conflict?
The world hybrid war: Ukrainian forefront. Volodymyr HorbulinDonbassFullAccess
In this multi-authored monograph the scholars of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine present an unprecedented study of the phenomenon of the world hybrid war, which manifested itself in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The nature of the hybrid war was analyzed in the context of the global security crisis and was studied as a new type of global confrontation. This monograph is a complex analysis of the causes and preconditions of the Russian aggression against Ukraine with respect to the strategic purposes and special aspects of conduct in various dimensions including military, political, economic, social, humanitarian, and informational. This monograph also presents research of the local success of our country in resisting the hostile plans of the Russian Federation in certain areas. The conclusion reached by this study is that Ukraine is capable of fighting against an aggressor for her sovereignty. The reformation of international security institutions and attainment of balance of power in the new hybrid reality are also addressed in the monograph. This book is meant for politicians, political analysts, senior government officials and scientists in the field of security studies. The research results would also be interesting for academia, representatives of civil society, as well as patriotic and responsible citizens.
Cultural Destruction and War Crimes in the Middle EastStephen Cheng
This is a translation of an article from German-Foreign-Policy.com on Donald Trump's threats of imposing new sanctions on Iraq for demanding the withdrawal of all foreign military forces and razing Iran's cultural monuments. The article also mentions the German government's decision to go along with the Trump administration on these matters and the consequences of sanctions on Iraq during the 1990s. The original article is here: https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/8146/
German-Foreign-Policy.com is somewhat comparable to the North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA; https://nacla.org/ ) and the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP; https://merip.org/).
The translation follows and all errors are mine.
Abstract
Immediately after the Cold war, there was a general optimism of an international system that would
enable the component nation-states to pursue economic growth and greater independence. Despite
the various strategies by the component nation states in the international system to attain self-
sufficiency in economic terms and thus reduce dependence on other nation states for their needs
and survival thereby weakening bilateral relations, the contemporary realities of the international
system in the face of global security challenges pose a compelling sustained cooperation and
collaboration among the nation states in the international system. Global security includes military
and diplomatic measures that nations and international organizations such as the United Nations
(UN) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) take to ensure mutual safety and security.
It also includes the regional and sub-regional collaborative strategies at combating security
challenges. Diplomacy and global security are among the most pressing issues facing the world
today. Success or failure can have huge implications for the international community and society
as a whole. This paper submits that global security will remain a compelling factor in diplomatic
relations in the twenty-first century.
A specially trained military unit, an "IDT Prevention Wing of the Military" uses IDT to reduce stress in the national collective consciousness.
The IDT soldier's daily routine includes the practice of the Transcendental Meditation® technique and its advanced "TM-Sidhi program.
Yall Mall is a new mixed use development in Kuwait, where I was commissioned by P&A Advertising Kuwait to provide the copy-write for all printed collateral for the project.
This document include different statements with
evidences gathered by millions of Egyptians
either from the Government, the private
sector, or ordinary individuals whom were taken aback by the inhuman terrorist attacks poured on Egypt, by the Muslem Brotherhood and some of their supporters.
This expert report examines cases of civilian casualties documented by the Mission throughout 2016 in relation to ceasefire violations and the conduct of hostilities.
071214 i vox_express political survey_v1iVOX Ukraine
Express survey of Ukrainian public opinion upon the most loud recent political events in Ukraine and around it. Done at 04-06 th of Dec.2014 by iVOX Ukraine.
Syria: The War within and the Challenges of International Lawinventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Conflict-related Displacement in Ukraine: Increased Vulnerabilities of Affect...DonbassFullAccess
In August 2014 the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) published its first thematic report on internal displacement in Ukraine. The existence of critical voices in some host communities towards internally displaced persons (IDPs) was raised as an emerging issue. Two years after the start of the conflict in and around Ukraine, similar concerns to the ones voiced in 2014 still exist and are now compounded by new challenges. The SMM monitors spoke to more than 1,600 IDPs and members of host communities across the country in order to assess the impact of the ongoing conflict and long-term displacement on IDPs and their relations with host communities.
Abstract
Immediately after the Cold war, there was a general optimism of an international system that would
enable the component nation-states to pursue economic growth and greater independence. Despite
the various strategies by the component nation states in the international system to attain self-
sufficiency in economic terms and thus reduce dependence on other nation states for their needs
and survival thereby weakening bilateral relations, the contemporary realities of the international
system in the face of global security challenges pose a compelling sustained cooperation and
collaboration among the nation states in the international system. Global security includes military
and diplomatic measures that nations and international organizations such as the United Nations
(UN) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) take to ensure mutual safety and security.
It also includes the regional and sub-regional collaborative strategies at combating security
challenges. Diplomacy and global security are among the most pressing issues facing the world
today. Success or failure can have huge implications for the international community and society
as a whole. This paper submits that global security will remain a compelling factor in diplomatic
relations in the twenty-first century.
A specially trained military unit, an "IDT Prevention Wing of the Military" uses IDT to reduce stress in the national collective consciousness.
The IDT soldier's daily routine includes the practice of the Transcendental Meditation® technique and its advanced "TM-Sidhi program.
Yall Mall is a new mixed use development in Kuwait, where I was commissioned by P&A Advertising Kuwait to provide the copy-write for all printed collateral for the project.
This document include different statements with
evidences gathered by millions of Egyptians
either from the Government, the private
sector, or ordinary individuals whom were taken aback by the inhuman terrorist attacks poured on Egypt, by the Muslem Brotherhood and some of their supporters.
This expert report examines cases of civilian casualties documented by the Mission throughout 2016 in relation to ceasefire violations and the conduct of hostilities.
071214 i vox_express political survey_v1iVOX Ukraine
Express survey of Ukrainian public opinion upon the most loud recent political events in Ukraine and around it. Done at 04-06 th of Dec.2014 by iVOX Ukraine.
Syria: The War within and the Challenges of International Lawinventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Conflict-related Displacement in Ukraine: Increased Vulnerabilities of Affect...DonbassFullAccess
In August 2014 the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) published its first thematic report on internal displacement in Ukraine. The existence of critical voices in some host communities towards internally displaced persons (IDPs) was raised as an emerging issue. Two years after the start of the conflict in and around Ukraine, similar concerns to the ones voiced in 2014 still exist and are now compounded by new challenges. The SMM monitors spoke to more than 1,600 IDPs and members of host communities across the country in order to assess the impact of the ongoing conflict and long-term displacement on IDPs and their relations with host communities.
As with other Western nations watching events unfold, Israel advocates the spread of democracy and stability throughout Egypt and the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed these sentiments when he spoke to Israel’s parliament in early February. He also warned about the dangers of Egypt being pushed to radicalization or influenced by Iran, a leading state sponsor of terrorism.
Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace agreement with Israel. The decision of the most powerful and influential Arab state to make peace with Israel reduced the likelihood of a large-scale Arab-Israeli war. It also brought Egypt into alliance with the West, helped strengthen moderate voices in the region and brought greater economic prosperity to the country.
Israel took political risks and sacrificed much to achieve peace, giving up oil fields, military bases, civilian settlements and a crucial land buffer for a promise of peace. Egypt kept its promise.
From the time of its independence, Israel waited 30 years for an Arab leader to show the courage and vision to make peace. Since 1977 Israel and Egypt have enjoyed more than three decades of peaceful relations.
Over the last six years there has been a real drive to improve relations on the ground between Israelis and Palestinians living and working in the West Bank. Much of this progress can be attributed to Israeli-Palestinian cooperation and the easing of trade and physical barriers.
Part of the success is also a result of the funding the Palestinian Authority (PA), the administrative body tasked with running the West Bank, receives from the United States, Europe and other donors. There has been more than $3 billion in direct foreign donor assistance to the PA’s budget since 2007. PA Prime Minister Fayyad reduced foreign aid from $1.8 billion in 2008, to $1.1 billion in 2010, and has said that the PA “will gradually wean” itself from such funding by 2013
A description of the projects and activities of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a multidisciplinary, independent non-profit think tank for Israel policy research and education, bringing together the best minds in the political, strategic, diplomatic and legal arenas, in Israel and abroad.
K4 d hdr Relation between Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United Sta...Sandro Santana
Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC and United States on relationship among Demonstrations, 2013. IMPEACHMENTS of 22 governments, Relation, Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United States, Demonstrations countries IMPEACHMENT, GOOGLE INC, the torture suffered by Sandro Suzart, Genocide in Egypt and Lybia.
K4 d hdr Relation Sandro Suzart SUZART GOOGLE INC United States on Dem...Sandro Suzart
relationship between Sandro Suzart SUZART GOOGLE INC and United States on Demonstrations 2013 and Impeachments of 22 governments Relation, Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United States on Demonstrations countries IMPEACHMENT GOOGLE INC
Although it will be known forever as the backdrop of tribal wanderings, wars, and revelations thousands of years in the past, today Sinai is the scene of dramatic events laden with regional significance. This once sleepy land bridge connecting North Africa to the Middle East is now buzzing with activity that demands the attention of Israel, Egypt and all international actors interested in preserving the peace agreement between them. Terrorism and the smuggling of guns, drugs, white slaves, refugees and job seekers across the 61,000-square kilometer (23,500-square mile) patch of sand and mountains are straining resources on both sides of the border.
This is in stark contrast, however, to Sinai’s history. The peninsula has served as a major thoroughfare for traders and conquerors since ancient times, but it has rarely seen significant settlement, and in many ways it has stood on the sidelines of history. It was controlled by the various rulers of Egypt for centuries, until the Ottoman Empire took it over. In place of the Ottomans came the British, who held Egypt as a colony for 70 years, until revolution ended British rule in 1952. The British-delineated border, from Rafah in the Gaza Strip to present-day Eilat, is still recognized today.
In modern relations between Israel and Egypt, Sinai has been both a buffer zone and an area of contention. It was the path through which Egypt attacked Israel in 1948, 1967, and 1973, and via which Israel attacked Egypt, in a joint operation with Britain and France to restore international access to the Suez Canal, in 1956. Throughout, though, it remained remote, sparsely populated, and relatively undeveloped.
Great solution....1) The Egypts crisis goes much deeper than .docxwhittemorelucilla
Great solution....
1) The Egypt's crisis goes much deeper than recent political chaos. With leader of the Supreme Constitutional Court taking over the presidency at the behest of military and the new government will likely represent the coalition of interests facing many of same challenges that brought about to go Mohammed Morsi's downfall. Egypt's population has been grown well beyond means of state to support its needs, and even a strong state will be struggle to ensure the sufficient supplies of basic staples and particularly fuel and the wheat.
4) The evidence linking Hassan al-Banna and the intellectual architect of the Islamism and the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood and to Nazism is substantial. For one thing and he singled out Hitler as the political role model in one of his political tracts. For another, he was the first close ally of Grand Mufti of Jerusalem and Haj Amin al-Husseini and who helped set up a Muslim division of the Waffen SS in Balkans.
6) If U.S. reaction, especially in the Congress, it was somewhat ambivalent and the worldwide reaction from Moscow to Paris was blunt and the strongly disapproving. In the UN Security Council and after the week marked by some 40 speeches all fiercely critical of Israel’s action and the tough seven-point resolution and which “strongly condemned” Israel for the strike against Osiraq and was unanimously approved. The resolution characterized the Israeli action as a “clear violation of the UN charter and the norms of international of the conduct” and the admonished Israel to refrain in the future from similar actions. Defending the right of Iraq to the develop nuclear technology for the peaceful purposes and the resolution urged Israel to accept IAEA inspections on all its nuclear facilities (a step that would force Israel to eliminate its widely assumed nuclear arsenal) and the concluded by recognizing Iraq’s right to the “appropriate redress.”
7) The United States frequently expresses the concern about the Iran’s involvement in Iraq, and analysts note that the Shiite-led country is filled with figures and including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and who spent time during Saddam Hussein’s tenure exiled in Iran. Some of even fought in the Iranian-armed military units against Iraqi forces during the long and bloody Iran-Iraq War. But the United States has worried less about such political ties and the more about evidence of tactical support being supplied by Iran to the Iraqi Shiite insurgency. Last year and President Bush said the United States had evidence of the Tehran supplying “material support,” and including mortars and elements of the sophisticated roadside bombs, to insurgents.
1) A recent wave of terrorism in Egypt is threatening the stability of the central government. What does this mean?
Problem : the central government of Egypt is threatened by the terrorist activities as terrorism has become one of the most common problem
Sub Problems:
1. How it is concerned that there ...
Newsbud exclusive highlights from the 6th international security conference i...Chris Helweg
In what has already become a tradition, the Russian ministry of defense organized its annual international security conference in Moscow on April 26 and 27, 2017. This conference is the Russian government answer to the annual Munich security conference, the high-level gathering of veteran Cold Warriors and advocates of the Atlanticist geopolitical agenda.
Professor Filip Kovacevic, Newsbud Analyst & commentator, is a geopolitical author, university professor and the chairman of the Movement for Neutrality of Montenegro. He received his BA and PhD in political science in the US and was a visiting professor at St. Petersburg State University in Russia for two years. He is the author of seven books, dozens of academic articles & conference presentations and hundreds of newspaper columns and media commentaries. He has been invited to lecture throughout the EU, Balkans, ex-USSR and the US. He currently resides in San Francisco. He can be contacted at fk1917@yahoo.com
1. Global Political Trends Center
Istanbul Kültür University
IstanbulKültürUniversity,AtaköyCampus,
Bakirköy,34156,Istanbul,Turkey
Phone:(90)2124984476|Fax:(90)2124984405
www.gpotcenter.org
Regional Updates
December2015|№10
3. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
Regional Updates: Cyprus
GPoT No. 10 | 3
CYPRUS
1. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Turkish Cyprus
on December 1st, stating that Turkey will not hesitate to take
necessary steps for a permanent solution to the Cyprus question
at a joint press conference in Nicosia.
2. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Greek Cyprus
on December 1st where he reiterated Russia’s hope for a viable
and just solution, based on the relevant UN Security Council
decisions, with full respect of the interests of the two communities
on the island.
3. US Secretary of State John Kerry held separate talks with Turkish and Greek Cypriot Presidents on
December 3rd stating that an end to the division of Cyprus was within reach.
4. On December 9th the third Trilateral Summit between Greece, Egypt and Cyprus in Athens took
place aiming at promoting peace, stability, security and prosperity in the Eastern Mediterranean
in various fields.
5. On December 11th the European Commission approved the new financial assistance programme
for the Turkish Cypriot community, worth €32 million from the EU budget within the Aid
Programme to promote the economic development of the Turkish Cypriot community and to
improve contacts between the two communities.
6. On December 11th the U.N. Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Espen Barth Eide, was
in Ankara for talks with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. Eide expressed that security
should not be reduced just to a question of troops and military issues, and that security is first and
foremost living together in peace in a successful federal construction.
7. On December 16th the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that he was encouraged by the
progress in the negotiations on the Cyprus problem during his end of the year press conference at
the UN Headquarters.
8. On December 20th Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot President
Mustafa Akıncı met with members of the Committee on Missing Persons (CMP) in the UN
Protected Area within the framework of UN-brokered Cyprus peace talks aiming towards the
island’s reunification. According to the UN statement, the leaders were briefed on the progress and
the challenges of the CMP.
Yahoo
4. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
REGIONAL UPDATES: EGYPT
EGYPT
Political Developments
1. Egypt’s High Electoral Committee (HEC) announced that both
stages of Egypt’s parliamentary elections produced a 28.3%
turnout rate.
2. Following the criticism of police in the media, President el-Sisi
said in a speech that police officers who commit mistakes will
be punished. In the weeks following the speech, several police
officers were taken into custody and sentenced to serve prison terms for their actions.
3. At least two men threw firebombs into a nightclub in central Cairo, setting of an explosion and
fires that killed 18 people.
4. El-Sisi, once again, called for the formation of a joint Arab military force to restore political and
security stability.
5. In an effort to tighten security after the crash of the Russian plane, Egypt has shifted to an electronic
registration database of travelers and hired London-based global consultancy Control Risks to
assess the security of Egyptian airports.
Egyptian Streets
Economic Developments
1. During the fiscal year 2014-2015, Egypt’s GDP grew by 4.2%; Minister Ashraf al-Araby said the
government is working to increase the growth rate to 5-5.5% during 2016-2017.
2. Several companies allegedly run by Muslim Brotherhood members were seized by the state due to
their ties to the outlawed organization.
3. The Egyptian government plans to hold talks with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab
Emirates to improve economic cooperation, and secure economic aid. In the same context, Saudi
Arabia’s King Salman ordered that Saudi investments in Egypt exceed $8 billion.
4. On December 19, Egypt and the World Bank signed $1 billion in a development policy finance
operation to support the Government’s economic reforms program across key economic areas.
GPoT No. 10 | 4
International Developments
1. President el-Sisi met with world leaders on the sidelines of the UN summit on climate change in
Paris.
2. Egypt was unanimously voted to lead the chairmanship of the UN Counter Terrorism Committee
in the UN Security Council in January 2016.
3. Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, held a telephone call with his Russian counterpart, Sergei
Lavrov to discuss approaches to the Syrian crisis and uniting opposition groups to battle terrorism.
4. In the year’s third summit between Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus, the three leaders of the countries
underlined their cooperation on stability, security, and trade in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
5. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
REGIONAL UPDATES: EGYPT
GPoT No. 10 | 5
5. The Egyptian-led, multinational investigation into the Russian plane crash concluded that the
crash was not caused by terrorism. Later in the month, Russian Security Services purported to
have identified the groups potentially responsible for the plane crash.
6. A report published by the British government supported the conclusion that affiliation with the
Muslim Brotherhood should be considered a possible indicator of extremism.
7. Foreign Minister Shoukry attended the meeting in New York City for talks on bringing the Syrian
government and opposition groups to the negotiating table.
8. In an urgent Arab League meeting in Cairo, Foreign Minister Sameh Shourky called for the
“immediate and unconditioned withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraq”.
9. In late December, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan reached an agreement on the studies to be conducted
on the repercussions of the Renaissance Dam as well as the disagreement resolution to regarding
the filling of the dam.
6. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
REGIONAL UPDATES: ISRAEL-PALESTINE
GPoT No. 10 | 6
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Israeli and Turkish officials met in Switzerland in mid-December in
order to firm up principles for a reconciliation agreement. Reports
confirmed that an outline for the agreement has been reached, with
some issues such as the Gaza blockade remaining unresolved. Two
days after it was known that Turkey and Israel are inching towards
an agreement, Turkish President Erdogan and Hamas leader Mashal
met in Istanbul – no details on the meeting were released. Moreover,
Saleh al-Arouri, one of the planners of a terror attack that killed three
Israeli teenagers in June 2014, was expelled from Turkey upon Israel’s
request.
The clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem escalated
throughout the month. Several vehicular assaults and stabbing attacks were followed by a shooting
attack that left two people dead and several wounded in Tel Aviv in the first day of 2016. On December
3, the Israeli army demolished the West Bank home of a Palestinian accused of overseeing the killing
of a Jewish settler couple - as means of deterrence. On the same day, Israeli security services arrested
several young Jewish extremists accused of burning to death a Palestinian family in July.
During the month, Israel struck several Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese border. A senior Hezbollah
leader, who was one of the longest prisoners in Israel, has been killed in an air strike in Damascus.
Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah said that retaliation for the assassination is forthcoming.
At an event commemorating the 51th anniversary of the PLO, President Abbas said that the Israeli
public is ‘deceived’ by leaders and urged Israel to “get out of our lives and our land.” Referring to
the situation in the region and to Abbas’ similar statements during their meeting in November, US
Secretary of State John Kerry warned that key Israeli policies were “imperiling” the viability of a two-
state solution. He added that “valid questions as to how long the Palestinian Authority will remain if
the current situation continues.”
Pavantulsija
7. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
Regional Updates: SYRIA
GPoT No. 10 | 7
SYRIA
1. Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad told Czech TV that Russia’s
involvement in his country’s war has led to significant changes,
including the “shrinking” of the Islamic State, al-Nusra Front and
the other groups on December 2nd.
2. The UK launched first Syria air strikes on December 3rd, targeting
the Omar oil fields under IS control in eastern Syria.
3. Germany’s parliament voted to send German military support to
the US-led coalition fighting Islamic State militants in Syria on
December 5th.
4. Syria’s disparate political and armed opposition factions came together in Saudi Arabia on
December 8th for a conference aimed at pursuing peace talks to seek a unified front. Meanwhile,
Kurdish factions and other opposition groups gathered on the same day for a meeting in
northeastern Syria’s Hasakeh province to launch the two-day Syrian Democratic Conference.
5. On December 15th Saudi Arabia said 34 mainly Muslim nations joined a new military alliance
to fight terrorism. Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman said the new alliance would
coordinate efforts against extremists in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Afghanistan.
6. On December 17th finance ministers from the 15 nations on the UN Security Council adopted a
resolution aimed at starving the so-called Islamic State of funds. The summit was the first of its
kind in the international body’s 70-year history.
7. On December 18th the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a resolution endorsing an
international road map for a Syrian peace process. The U.N. plans to hold peace talks in Geneva
towards the end of January.
8. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on December 24th during his visit to Beijing that
Syria is ready to take part in peace talks in Geneva.
Al-Tahrir
8. GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
Regional Updates: WEST BALKANS
GPoT No. 10 | 8
WESTERN BALKANS
1. Bosnia and Herzegovina:
Bosnia and Herzegovina marked the 20th anniversary of the Dayton
Peace Treaty on December 14th. Politicians who represent the
Federation consider the Dayton Peace Treaty as a main obstacle to
the progress of Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, in the Republic
of Serbia, Dayton presents the most important guarantee of its
autonomy. Prior to the marking of the anniversary of the DPT, state
security agency SIPA arrested a few Serbian nationals on suspicion
of committing war crimes. This action provoked new tensions between Sarajevo and Banja Luka.
2. Kosovo:
Kosovo is currently going through a serious political crisis caused by two main issues. The first
issue concerns the application of the Brussels Agreement and the establishment of Community
of Serbian Municipalities (CSM). The Constitutional Court of Kosovo decided that the
establishment of the CSM is not completely consistent with the Constitution on 23th December.
3. FYR Macedonia:
Macedonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikola Poposki made first official visit to Athens on
December 16th. The main topic of talks with Greek officials was a dispute over Macedonia’s
name. Currently neither side is ready for a compromise regarding the name dispute. FYR
Macedonia is facing serious problems due to the refugee crisis. To prevent the entry of
immigrants Macedonian authorities have erected a protective fence on the border with Greece.
4. Montenegro:
Montenegro received an invitation for NATO membership on December 2nd. NATO chief Jens
Stoltenberg said he expected accession talks to go quickly, suggesting that the country might become
a member at the next summit of NATO leaders in July 2016. Joining NATO requires defense reforms
and integration with NATO defense structures. The final accession is subject to approval of all NATO
members and the Montenegrin parliament.
5. Serbia:
Serbia penned the first two chapters in the negotiations with the EU on December 14th. Chapter 32
regards financial control, while Chapter 35 is dedicated to the normalization of relations between
Belgrade and Pristina. Chapter 35 also implies the implementation of the Brussels Agreement which
part of the Serbian public see as a formal recognition of Kosovo.
9. Global Political Trends Center
Istanbul Kültür University
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT Center) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution
established under the auspices of Istanbul Kültür University in 2009.
GPoT Center was founded with the aim to support reconciliation and non-violent solutions to
international as well as domestic issues through dialogue. Our mission is to contribute to stability,
democratization and peace through organizing multitrack diplomacy meetings, conducting
innovative and independent research, and encouraging informed debates in the media on key issues
affecting Turkey and the world.
GPoT Center serves as a platform for the free exchange of views and information on political, social
and economic matters concerning a variety of parties and segments of society. We aim to achieve
our mission by routinely bringing together opinion leaders, government officials, policy makers,
analysts, scholars, experts and members of the media from Turkey and abroad.
Our publications can be downloaded from our website for free. They are also accessible through
online libraries worldwide, such as the International Relations and Security Network in Zurich,
Europe’s World in Brussels, and Columbia University Press in New York. Additionally, you can find
our books on Google Books and Amazon Kindle.
GlobalPoliticalTrendsCenter
CONTACT DETAILS
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Istanbul Kültür University
Atakoy Campus, Bakirkoy
34 156 Istanbul, Turkey
www.gpotcenter.org
info@gpotcenter.org
Tel: +90 212 498 44 76/65
Fax: +90 212 498 44 05