Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030
Similar to Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030
- 1. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE Fundamental Policy Questions Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys 21st Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC) 13 September 2021
- 2. • Goal: Forecast number of trips per day for different pairs of trip purposes in 2050 • Motivation: A quantitative approach for trip generation forecasts • Data: • Mobility and Transport Microcensus 2015 • Synthetic population calibrated to retrospective data for the reference year 2017 • Forecasted synthetic populations for 2030, 2040 and 2050 • Focus: Home-based trips to work • Literature: Ordered logit models «are temporally stable and acceptable for forecasting trip generation» (Huntsinger et al., 2013) 2 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030
- 3. 3 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Ordered logit model of the number of trips
- 4. Choices attributes Car availability Function in the company Public transport travelcards Work percentage Urban-rural typology (home) Language of the interview Household structure (5 levels) Business sector (10 levels) Studying Home-work crow-fly distance Public transport quality (home) Number of cars in the household Income of the household Nationality Level of education (4 levels) Age Region of the place of living Number of children (≤15, ≤6, …) Sex Couples without children with age ≤30 Doing some work from home Couples without children with age 30-49 4 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Choice attributes used in the model
- 5. • Work related attributes • Business: Agriculture, gastronomy, public admin. & educ., production, wholesale • Independent/executives • Work percentage, working from home, percentage of work from home • Socio-economic attributes • Couples with children; Children younger than 6 years old in the household • Interview in French • Studying • Age 20-65, 65+ • Spatial factors • Large commuting distance • Living in Eastern Switzerland (!) 5 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Estimation results, 2015 Green: parameter > 0 Red: parameter < 0
- 6. Internal validation • Model estimated on 80% of the data, applied to the remaining 20% • Average number of home-based trips to work in the random 20%: • Observed: 0.662 (±0.023) • Predicted: 0.682 (±0.008) External validation • Apply the model to the synthetic population 2017 • Average number of home-based trips to work: • Observed in the MTMC 2015: 0.658 (±0.008) • Predicted in the SynPop 2017: 0.632 6 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Internal & external validation of the model
- 7. • 2015: 0.658 trips from home to work • 2030: 0.358 trips from home to work • Executives: • 2015: 0.655 • 2030: 0.371 • Employees: • 2015: 0.660 • 2030: 0.354 7 Name of presentation • subtitle Application of the model to synthetic population 2030
- 8. 8 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Application of the model to synthetic population 2030
- 9. • Predicted number of home-based trips to work clearly too low (expected: max -20%) • Calibration of the cuts is needed (global or per socio-economic group) • Adding telecommuting in the forecasting process • Improvements of the specification of the model • Possibly use unimodal ordered logit by Melvin Wong? • Extend the model to other pairs of trip purposes (e.g. home-leisure) Code: https://github.com/antonindanalet/trip-generation-in-microcensus 9 • A. Danalet, A. Justen & N. A. Mathys Trip generation in Switzerland, 2015-2030 Limitations and future work