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Netherlands 2016 OECD Economic Survey unleashing productivity The Hague 3 March

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Netherlands 2016 OECD Economic Survey unleashing productivity The Hague 3 March

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Netherlands 2016 OECD Economic Survey unleashing productivity The Hague 3 March

  1. 1. www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-netherlands.htm 2016 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF THE NETHERLANDS @OECD @OECDeconomy Unleashing productivity The Hague, 3 March 2016
  2. 2. The context 2
  3. 3. Well-being is high 3 Source: OECD (2015), OECD Better Life Index. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Income and wealth Jobs and earnings Housing Work and life balance Health status Education and skillsSocial connections Civic engagement and governance Environmental quality Personal security Subjective well-being Well-being outcomes Better Life Index, 2015 Netherlands OECD
  4. 4. Growth has picked up 4 Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database), February. 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP Index 2008 Q1 = 100 Netherlands OECD Euro area
  5. 5. Unemployment is decreasing 5 Source: Eurostat (2016), Employment and unemployment (Labour Force Survey) (database), January. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Unemployment As a percentage of the labour force Unemployment Long-term unemployment
  6. 6. Fiscal sustainability is healthy 6 Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database), February and European Commission (2015), "The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)", Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 Public debt simulation General government gross debt, Maastricht definition, as a percentage of GDP Baseline No productivity growth Without offsetting rising ageing-related costs
  7. 7. House prices are rising 7 Source: Statistics Netherlands (2016), "House Price Index; existing, Netherlands", in Construction and housing, Statline, January. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 House prices Index 2007 = 100 Netherlands Big cities
  8. 8. Productivity has been flat 8 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Labour productivity Real GDP (USD 2010 PPPs) per total hours worked, index 2007 = 100 Netherlands OECD Euro area Source: OECD (2016), OECD Productivity Statistics (database), February.
  9. 9. Fiscal policies 9
  10. 10. Budget deficit is low 10 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Budget deficit As a percentage of GDP Overall deficit Structural deficit Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database), February.
  11. 11. Tax reform was not adopted 11  Increase tax efficiency, notably by accelerating the reduction of mortgage interest rate relief and phasing out lower VAT rate, while keeping the tax reform fiscally neutral. Source: OECD (2014), Consumption Tax Trends 2014: VAT/GST and Excise Rates, Trends and Policy Issues. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 MEX GRC ITA TUR ESP POL SVK GBR IRL ISL PRT AUS BEL FRA CAN HUN NLD DEU OECD FIN SWE NOR CZE SVN DNK AUT CHL ISR KOR JPN EST CHE NZL LUX Value-added tax revenue ratio As a percentage, 2012
  12. 12. Self-employment is expanding rapidly 12  Reconsider the degree of tax incentives for self-employed, and explore alternatives for ensuring they build adequate savings for disability, and ageing risks if needed. -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Self-employment Contributions to the change in total employment since 2003 Q1, thousand Employees Self-employed Source: Statistics Netherlands (2016), "Employment, quarterly", in Labour and social security, Statline, February.
  13. 13. Bolstering private investment 13
  14. 14. Total investment is recovering from a low level 14 Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database), February. 16 18 20 22 24 26 16 18 20 22 24 26 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total investment As percentage of GDP, 4-quarter cumulative Netherlands OECD Euro area
  15. 15. Low housing investment risks creating shortages 15  Support the supply of rental housing by further limiting strict rent regulation in the private market. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Residential investment As a percentage of GDP, 4-quarter cumulative Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database), February.
  16. 16. Private R&D spending is low 16  Step up efforts to strengthen innovation performance by increasing direct public support for R&D Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 CHL MEX GRC POL SVK TUR NZL PRT ITA ESP CAN EST NOR HUN GBR CZE NLD IRL AUS ISL FRA BEL USA DEU SVN DNK AUT CHE SWE FIN JPN KOR ISR Business R&D intensity As a percentage of GDP, 2013 or latest year available
  17. 17. Renewable energy is below target 17  Ensure stronger investment in renewables and energy efficiency by improving cost-effectiveness of existing instruments and possibly increasing their scale. Source: Eurostat (2016), "Climate change and energy", in Europe 2020 Indicators, February. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 LUX NLD GBR BEL IRL HUN POL SVK CZE DEU FRA GRC EU28 ESP ITA SVN EST PRT DNK AUT FIN SWE NOR ISL Renewable energy Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption, percentage 2014 2020 Target
  18. 18. Credit for SMEs is tight 18  Increase competition in the market for SME loans by considering the creation of a credit register for companies, based on standard reporting data if possible. Source: ECB (2016), "Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises", Statistical Data Warehouse, European Central Bank, January. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 FIN DEU AUT BEL ITA EMU ESP FRA PRT GRC IRL NLD Rejection rates of credits to SMEs As a percentage of respondents of SMEs applying for a loan, April to September 2015
  19. 19. Boosting skills for all 19
  20. 20. Skills are strong 20 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 ITA ESP FRA IRL POL AUT USA DEU DNK GBR KOR OECDPIAAC CAN SVK CZE BEL EST NOR SWE AUS NLD FIN JPN PIAAC literacy proficiency Literacy score point Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills.
  21. 21. Skills of some groups, mainly migrants, lag behind 21  Raise the quality of early childhood education and care further and foster generic skills in vocational education and training. Further raise teachers’ qualification, in particular in disadvantaged schools, and subsequently their wages. Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 First generation immigrants Less educated Second generation immigrants Old Less educated parents Natives Youth More educated parents More educated PIAAC literacy proficiency by socio-demographic groups Literacy score point Netherlands OECD PIAAC average
  22. 22. Job market polarisation requires adaptability 22  Enhance entrepreneurial skills by evaluating the effectiveness of programmes in formal education, developing online stand-alone training programmes, and promoting peer-to-peer learning. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1996-2008 2009-10 2012-14 Average annual change in total employment in the Netherlands by occupation categories requiring different tasks Thousand employed persons Non-routine manual Routine manual Abstract Source: Eurostat (2015), Employment and unemployment (Labour Force Survey) (database), October.
  23. 23. Immigrants are less active on the labour market than natives 23  Strengthen the provision of public employment services, and create programmes combining work experience and on-the-job training as well as language courses for immigrants. Source: OECD (2015), "Employment, unemployment and participation rates by sex and place of birth", OECD International Migration Statistics (database), October. -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 SWE NLD BEL DNK FRA FIN AUT MEX DEU NOR SVN CHE ESP NZL AUS GBR CAN OECD EST ISL IRL GRC POL USA CZE ITA PRT TUR SVK ISR HUN LUX CHL Differences in employment rates between foreign-born and native-born Working-age population, percentage points, 2014
  24. 24. Temporary employment is high 24  Further reduce the cap on severance payments to make permanent contracts more attractive to employers. Source: OECD (2015), OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics (database), November. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 EST GBR AUT JPN AUS NOR LUX DNK IRL CHE BEL SVK CZE OECD DEU HUN CAN ISL TUR GRC FRA SWE ITA FIN SVN NLD KOR PRT ESP POL CHL Temporary employment Prime-age workers (25-54 year-olds), as a percentage of total employment, 2014
  25. 25. More Information… www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-netherlands.htm OECD OECD Economics 25 Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

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