The document discusses the geopolitical tension between the United States and Russia, emphasizing the U.S. strategy to prevent Russia from regaining its status as a major global power. It highlights Russia's military modernization efforts and its alliance with China as a counterbalance to NATO expansion and threats perceived by the West. The impact of economic sanctions and fluctuations in oil prices on Russia's economy and the potential for escalating military conflict are also examined.

1. 1
TOWARD NEW COLD WAR
Fernando Alcoforado *
In the contemporary era, one of the US government strategies is to prevent Russia could
rise to the status of major global or even regional power. In practice, the US government
wants to avoid facing the future of a reinvigorated Russia. On Russia, it is important to
note that its strategic objectives are: 1) to defend itself from the threat to their territory
represented by the United States and with NATO forces; and, 2) achieving world power
status lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. To defend against the threat to their
territory represented by the United States and the NATO forces, the military strategy of
Russia provides for the resetting of the Army and Navy with the use of conventional
and nuclear weapons in response to an attack on the country [See Article of Bruno
Quadros e Quadros under the title A nova doutrina militar da Rússia: mais do mesmo?
(The new military doctrine of Russia: more of the same) published on the site
<http://www.enciclopedia.com.pt/news.php?readmore=181>). NATO expansion
towards the Russian borders is the main danger outside the country.
It is important to note that after the dismantling of the Soviet Union and the Eastern
European socialist system, the US project was the occupation of the border territories of
Russia, which had been under Soviet influence until 1991. The occupation movement
started by the Baltic, crossed Central Europe, Ukraine and Belarus, went through
intervention in the Balkans (former Yugoslavia) and came to Central Asia and Pakistan,
expanding NATO's borders. When finished the 1990s, the geopolitical distribution of
new US military bases leaves no doubt about the existence of a new "sanitary belt",
separating Germany from Russia and Russia from China [See the article A Geopolítica
das Relações entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The
Geopolitics of relations between the Russian Federation and the US: from
"Cooperation" to a conflict) of Mazat and Franklin Serrano posted on the website
<http://www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>]. The current
conflict between Russia and Ukraine makes evident the purpose of the Western powers
(US and European Union), together with Ukraine, to weaken the geopolitical position of
Russia that seeks to regain global role before played by the former Soviet Union.
Mazat and Serrano, researchers at the Political Economy Institute of UFRJ (Rio de
Janeiro Federal University), claim in the said Article that the NATO intervention in
Serbia in 1999 was perceived by the Russian people and their leaders as a threat to the
security of the country. The bombing of Serbia showed clearly how the siege strategy
organized by the United States and its allies, through the advance programmed by
NATO and the European Union in areas formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, could
pose a danger to the sovereignty of Russia. The arrival of Vladimir Putin to power
would radically change this geopolitical framework, until then very unfavorable for
Russia. The arrival of Vladimir Putin to power in Russia in 2000, marked the beginning
of geopolitical recovery of Russia, whose position had been greatly weakened during
the Yeltsin government in the 1990s Putin is the rise to power of a solid and broad
coalition of economic and political interests that united on the need to restore the
operation of basic foundations of a modern capitalist state that surpass the wild and
predatory phase of "primitive accumulation" in the Russian Federation.
The geopolitical recovery of Russia was made possible by the affirmation of a
nationalist project of recovery of the Russian state by Putin, according Mazat and
Serrano. The Russian leadership over the past decade, decided to concentrate their

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efforts on regaining a geopolitical dominion over the area of the former Soviet Union.
They intended to make the old boundaries of the Soviet Union were respected, except
for the Baltic countries. But the biggest concern of the Russians in terms of security
comes from NATO's operations in the former Soviet bloc. Thus, Russia opposed
vigorously in 2007 the anti-missile shield project that the Americans wanted to install in
Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic), through NATO. This missile shield supposed
to protect European members of NATO against the Iranian threat [See the article of
Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano under the title A Geopolítica das Relações entre a
Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of
relations between the Russian Federation and the US: "From cooperation" to a
conflict) posted on the website <http: /
/www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>].
Mazat and Franklin Serrano claim that the Russian leadership, in the 2000s, returned to
give priority to the issue of the armed forces aimed at reversing the rapid decline of the
military potential of the country during the 1990s The purpose of this partial
reconstruction of Russian military power was to give a stronger material basis to
support the diplomatic and geopolitics strategy of Russia address the ongoing attempts
to weaken the country by the United States and its European allies. In 2000, for the first
time since 1992, the Russian Federation has increased its defense budget. In 2003, were
delivered to the Russian Air Force the first fighter since 1992, as well as attack
helicopters in 2004. In 2006, the Russian Federation began also to provide the Air
Force's Sukhoi 34, new aircraft used to long-distance attack. In an article published in
February 2012, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would spend 580 billion Euros in
arms over the next ten years to modernize its army.
From the year 2000, Russia decided to develop a strategic partnership with China.
Russia considered that China could help her in her resistance to geopolitical ambitions
of the United States both in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus or Central Asia. The
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 to establish an
alliance between Russia and China militarily and to combat terrorism, religious
fundamentalism and separatism in the Asian region. The SCO is a political cooperation
and military organization that explicitly proposes to be a counterweight to the United
States and NATO military forces. Putin decided the last territorial disputes with China
in 2004, making secure its eastern border. The two countries maintain generally
converging positions in the UN and other international forums, such as the G20 [See the
article of Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano under the title A Geopolítica das Relações
entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of
relations between the Russian Federation and the US: "From cooperation" to a
conflict) posted on the website <http: /
/www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>].
Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano say the partnership between China and Russia there
is also in the armaments industry. Throughout the 1990s, arms sales to China were
essential to the survival of the Russian military-industrial complex. Russia remained the
largest supplier of China's modern weapons in 2000 and was most recently Russian
military technology transfer to the production of new Chinese weapons. In addition, the
Chinese remain large customers Russian hydrocarbons. Finally, the strategic partnership
between China and Russia is so fundamental to the two countries that differences about
the energy issue or other differences of interest, natural between two powers, important

3. 3
as they are were unable to threaten the collaboration between the two countries with
respect to an attempt to limit the power of the United States.
Russian defense spending should increase by 25 percent in 2015, reaching record levels.
This refit and modernization of its military hardware following the reorganization of its
military units into a force of fast reaction, seen to great effect in the annexation of the
Crimea. Russia is flexing its military muscles, with the biggest challenge of Moscow to
Western defense strategy since the end of the Cold War. In 2010, the Russian
Parliament (Duma) approved a program for 2011-2020 which allocated 20 trillion
rubles for rearmament and added three trillion rubles to upgrade the military industry.
The stated ambition is that by 2020, the Russian armed forces will be 70 percent
"modern". The army will receive 2,300 new tanks, the Air Force 1200 aircraft,
including helicopters and the Navy 50 surface ships and submarines 28 [See the article
of Stefan Hedlund under the title Moscow's military upgrade may force West to rethink
strategy, published on the website <http://geopolitical-info.com/en/defense-and-
security/moscow-s-military-upgrade-may-force-west-to-rethink-strategy>].
It is important to note that Russia is a major supplier of weapons to countries that want
to maintain their independence from the United States, such as India. Similarly, nations
suffering embargo on weapons by the United States as China, Venezuela or Iran make
military purchases with Russia. Moreover, Russia remains a major global nuclear power
alongside the United States. Unilateral US economic sanctions against Russia because
of their behavior in Ukraine and the threat of still impose more sanctions hastened
Russia's desire to find new outlets for its gas and oil. On May 16, 2014, Russia and
China announced the signing of a "treaty of friendship" contemplating an agreement on
the gas, by which the two countries will build a pipeline to export Russian gas to China.
China will lend money to Russia with which it will build its part of the pipeline.
Gazprom (Russia's largest producer of gas and oil) made some price concessions to
China [See the article of Immanuel Wallerstein under the title O jogo geopolítico da Rússia
e da China (The geopolitical game in Russia and China) published on the website
<http://outraspalavras.net/posts/o- game-geopolitical-of-moscow-and-beijing />].
One hypothesis that has been considered is that the United States is behind the current
decline in oil prices to affect the economies of enemy countries such as Russia, Iran and
Venezuela. Because of the fall in oil prices, Russia is facing at the moment a violent
speculative attack that is resulting in the nation's capital flight which is causing a
dramatic decrease in the purchasing power of its currency, the Ruble. It can be said that,
from a geopolitical point of view, most likely, the United States will not put pressure to
reduce the supply of product to maintain the fall in the price of oil. It should be noted
that the gradual decline in oil prices since last June has reached US$ 48 per barrel at the
time and can evolve to US$ 30 per barrel in the coming months that may put into
question the economy of Russia and other oil-producing countries that are dependent on
its export earnings. The understanding of many energy experts is that the fall in the oil
barrel price can not last long because it would be detrimental not only to Russia but also
to the United States that would have frustrated the exploitation of shale that would only
be viable economically with US$ 80 per barrel.
Although the United States itself being undermined with the fall of the price of oil,
everything suggests that in the short term, this policy concerns to the US government in
order to, on the one hand, destabilize the Russian economy to bring down its
government, or even overthrow the main leadership, Putin, who is winning the conflict

4. 4
with Ukraine, which is why suffer economic sanctions and provide nuclear technology
to Iran and, on the other hand, overthrow the Iranian regime, whose economy, already
weakened by economic sanctions, depends more than ever on oil prices above $ 100 per
barrel. The United States is mortal enemies of Iran, as they are the last oil producer in
the Middle East not in line to the West and with plans to develop nuclear technology.
Oil and natural gas account for over 68% of export revenues in Russia and more than
50% of the government budget.
The attempt to destabilize the Russian economy can contribute, however, to increase the
military escalation confronting Russia against the United States and the forces of
NATO. The worsening economic situation resulting from Russia's price drop of oil and
the economic strangulation resulting of sanctions imposed by the US and European
Union may radicalize the conflict with the United States making the Russian
government decides on preventive military intervention in Ukraine that could further
strengthen the power of Vladimir Putin in charge of Russia mobilizing the nation
against foreign enemies. By contrast, the United States and NATO forces should act
extending the siege of Russia starting a new Cold War.
*Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.