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Macroeconomic
 Measurement
           Spring 2013
                Topic 3
Output and Growth
GDP

 Total market value of all final goods and
 services produced in an economy in a year
Historical Data
Does this capture
     everything?
Home production

“Under the table” transactions

Black market activity
Components of GDP
Consumption

Investment

Government Expenditures

Net Exports
Growth
Formula
Growth
Another approach
The Sum of Price x Output

What could cause GDP to increase?
Real vs. Nominal GDP
Base year prices or current year prices
Inflation
Measured by the percentage change of a price
index

Examples

  GDP Deflator

  Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Deflator
Nominal GDP ÷ Real GDP

  2012, Q3: 115.81
CPI
Nominal Consumer Cost ÷ Real Consumer
Cost

  2012, November: 231.03
Using a Price Index
Finding real wages

  Nominal Wage ÷ Price Index

  $10 ÷ 2.3103 = $4.33
An application to
    minimum wages
Federal minimum wage, 1982: $3.35

Federal minimum wage, 2013: $7.25

  Real wage = ?

Colorado minimum wage, 2013: $7.78

  Real wage = ?
An application to
    minimum wages
Federal minimum wage, 1982: $3.35

Federal minimum wage, 2013: $7.25

  Real wage = $3.14

Colorado minimum wage, 2013: $7.78

  Real wage = $3.37
Calculating inflation
Historical data
Using inflation data
Finding real interest rates

  Nominal Rate - Inflation Rate = Real Rate

  Example

     Interest rate on government debt =
     2.04%

     Real rate?
Using inflation data
Finding real interest rates

  Example

     Interest rate on government debt =
     2.04%

     Real rate is 2.04% - 1.8% = 0.24%
Using inflation data
Finding real interest rates

Indexing

  Cost of living adjustments
Biases to the
measurement of inflation
 Substitution bias

 Quality bias

 New product bias

 Outlet bias
Unemployment
Linking unemployment to output

  Okun’s Law

    1% increase in unemployment costs 2%
    of GDP
Historical data
What is this measuring?
 BLS Link

   http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.
   htm
U-3 measure of
    unemployment
Number Unemployed ÷ Labor Force
Labor force participation
          rate
 Labor Force ÷ Over 16 Population
Problems with U-3
Discourage workers

Part-time workers

Underemployed
Is all unemployment the
          same?
 Frictional

 Structural

 Cyclical
The “appropriate”
amount of unemployment
 Zero cyclical unemployment

 Full employment rate of unemployment

 VERY roughly 5%
Back to Okun’s Law
Economic underperformance?

7.8% - 5% = 2.8% too much unemployment

2.8% x 2 = 5.6% too little output

5.6% x $15.811 trillion = $885 billion
underproduction

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