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      Threshold Concepts
    in Quantitative Finance
            by Richard Diamond and Holly Smith

    for Developments in Economics Education Conference
                      September 2011
In This Presentation...
•   Challenges of quantitative instruction. Evidence for
    surface-to-deep learning dynamics

•   Introduction to the threshold concept as a
    paradigm

•   Quantitative Finance: the volume of procedural
    knowledge and ‘a maths sweet spot’

•   Illustrations and ideas for knowledge integration
    (special learning situations) in quantitative finance
Quantitative Instruction:
     The Problem(s)
•   Students acquire formal knowledge but seem
    unable to use it when making sense of experience

•   Students struggle with underpinning theory and
    resort to verbatim learning of isolated aspects of a
    subject, being unable to use them in conjunction

•   Students are unable to transfer their skills outside
    specific, structured problems

 If struggling with gaps in what students actually understood
please consult A Handbook on Threshold Concepts in Economics:
        Implications for teaching, learning and assessment
Grade Distributions from
 UG Statistics Modules




Where is the central tendency?
‘Surface                                         ‘Deep
Learners’                                        Learners’




     Multi-Modal Distribution
    Reflects a distribution of learning styles chosen by
    students. Only several start with an in-depth style
Definitions
                                     “The threshold concept
“A threshold concept is akin to a    approach is concerned with
portal, opening up a new and         how students can be helped
previously inaccessible way of       to acquire integrating
thinking about something. It         ideas.” (Davies & Mangan 2007b)
represents a transformed way of
understanding, or interpreting, or
viewing something without which      “The threshold concept
the learner cannot                   approach helps to anticipate
progress.” (Meyer & Land 2005)       challenges of quantitative
                                     teaching.” (Diamond & Smith 2011)
  A well-maintained collection of resources can be found on
           The Threshold Concept Portal
       at www.ee.ucl.ac.uk/~mflanaga/thresholds.html
‘One Line’ Examples
•   Maths: complex number, a limit, the Fourier transform

•   Economics: opportunity cost, price elasticity

•   Quantitative Finance: Ito's lemma, change of
    measure, risk neutrality, incomplete markets
    A couple of questions:

•   Which concepts did your students experience the most
    difficulty with?

•   Were you satisfied with progress of your students in
    understanding of those concepts and disciplinary modelling
    (e.g., econometrics)?
A Big Box of Tools for
         Quantitative Finance
•   The discipline utilises techniques of pure and applied
    mathematics (analysis & measure theory; stochastic
    calculus & PDE solution methods) and statistics

•   There are discipline-specific modelling techniques:
    replication of instrument with a portfolio and pricing
    via expectations (FATF & Feynman-Kac)
  Option pricing formulae were known explcitly from 1960 but
  real significance was in how they were derived by B-S. Delta-
  hedging and independence of expected rate of return were the
  great discoveries awarded the Nobel Prize (Haug 2007: 39-40).
Finance maths is simple: PDEs are parabolic and
        numerical methods are well-specified
Example: Black’76 Formula for
  Fixed Income Derivatives
 The proof of Black’s (1976) formula involved the following
 mathematics: differential equations, Brownian Motion,
 stochastic calculus and Ito’s integral (Ito’s lemma), double
 change of measure (Girsanov theorem) to obtain a futures
 martingale measure, Feynman-Kac theorem, and assumptions
 allowing to use the Normal Distribution.
 The following techniques specific to quantitative finance were
 also utilised: forward price (given discounting in continuos
 time), self-financing trading strategy, no arbitrage valuation,
 FAPF and Black-Scholes solutions formulae.

That was an extremely brief overview of a dense
                 8-page proof
A Maths Sweet Spot
•   The idea is advocated by Paul Wilmott (2009)
    “The models should not be too elementary so as to make
    it impossible to invent new structured products, but nor
    should they be so abstract as to be easily misunderstood
    by all except their inventor (and sometimes even by him),
    with the obvious and financially dangerous consequences.”

•   Example of CDO and CDO^2 products that show ‘bizarre’
    correlation behaviours (to default) that are different for
    each tranche, leading to ‘off the cliff’ scenario for value

•   Tendency to make presentation of finance research overly
    complex (unlike experts, students cannot discern a paper)

Outside of the sweet spot, model risk is increased
‘Live’ Integration

•   The following Illustrations show how expert
    practitioners, who were faculty and tutors on CQF
    programme, mapped concepts during their sessions

•   Programme participants reported ‘a transformative
    impact’ on their knowledge, generated by experiences
    of dynamic mapping of disciplinary concepts


Understanding of the Illustrations requires familiarity
with the type of modelling done in quantitative finance
Illustration 1 compares Black-Scholes pricing equation
that applies locally (pricing over the next small period) to
FAPF that applies globally (over the life of a product)
Illustration 2 aims to show a critical difference between
risk-free and forward rates: forward rate curve is not an
expected path of a mean-reverting risk-free rate
Popular one-factor spot-rate models

   The real spot rate r satisfies the stochastic differential equation
                       dr = u(r, t)dt + w(r, t)dX.                     (4)

       Model           u(r, t) − λ(r, t)w(r, t)         w(r, t)
       Vasicek                  a − br                     c
       CIR                      a − br                  cr1/2
       Ho & Lee                  a(t)                      c
       Hull & White I        a(t) − b(t)r                c(t)
       Hull & White II       a(t) − b(t)r              c(t)r1/2
       General affine          a(t) − b(t)r         (c(t)r − d(t))1/2

   Here λ(r, t) denotes the market price of risk. The function u − λw
   is the risk-adjusted drift.

   For all of these models the zero-coupon bond value is of the
   form Z(r, t; T ) = eA(t,T )−rB(t,T ).

   Certificate in Quantitative Finance
                                                                  36


Illustration 3 relates the parameters (e.g, drift and
process volatility) of several named stochastic interest rate
models to the same parameters in one generalised model
Illustration 4 is a flow chart that utilises ‘black boxes’ to
present sophisticated statistical procedures for testing and
modelling of long-term relationships in a simple form
Learning Situations Design
•   Go through mathematical proofs ‘by hand’ and make
    learners comfortable with volumes of it

•   Teach initial modelling skills without the formal
    disciplinary apparatus

•   Structure situations in which insight comes from the
    re-working of prior knowledge and replacing of
    simple ways of understanding
    For an example, see DEE 2007 Keynote on Teaching
    Undergraduate Econometrics by Prof. David Hendry
    http://www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk/dee2007/
Assessment in
       Quantitative Subjects
•   Provide scaffolding for knowledge integration early in
    the module: hand out past exam papers at the first
    lecture and suggest portable textbooks

•   Design assessment so as to remove incentives for
    surface learning: include questions on reasoning,
    model derivation and output interpretation

•   Be realistic about what is possible. In cases such as a
    six-week Masters module, we can only bring specific
    mathematical and modelling skills up to a standard

•   If things are tight, choose a project over exam
This was the first glance at pedagogic
value of the threshold concept approach.

With feedback and suggestions for
further enquiry, please get in touch via

richard.diamond@ucl.ac.uk

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Threshold Concepts in Quantitative Finance - DEE 2011 Presentation

  • 1. ! Threshold Concepts in Quantitative Finance by Richard Diamond and Holly Smith for Developments in Economics Education Conference September 2011
  • 2. In This Presentation... • Challenges of quantitative instruction. Evidence for surface-to-deep learning dynamics • Introduction to the threshold concept as a paradigm • Quantitative Finance: the volume of procedural knowledge and ‘a maths sweet spot’ • Illustrations and ideas for knowledge integration (special learning situations) in quantitative finance
  • 3. Quantitative Instruction: The Problem(s) • Students acquire formal knowledge but seem unable to use it when making sense of experience • Students struggle with underpinning theory and resort to verbatim learning of isolated aspects of a subject, being unable to use them in conjunction • Students are unable to transfer their skills outside specific, structured problems If struggling with gaps in what students actually understood please consult A Handbook on Threshold Concepts in Economics: Implications for teaching, learning and assessment
  • 4. Grade Distributions from UG Statistics Modules Where is the central tendency?
  • 5. ‘Surface ‘Deep Learners’ Learners’ Multi-Modal Distribution Reflects a distribution of learning styles chosen by students. Only several start with an in-depth style
  • 6. Definitions “The threshold concept “A threshold concept is akin to a approach is concerned with portal, opening up a new and how students can be helped previously inaccessible way of to acquire integrating thinking about something. It ideas.” (Davies & Mangan 2007b) represents a transformed way of understanding, or interpreting, or viewing something without which “The threshold concept the learner cannot approach helps to anticipate progress.” (Meyer & Land 2005) challenges of quantitative teaching.” (Diamond & Smith 2011) A well-maintained collection of resources can be found on The Threshold Concept Portal at www.ee.ucl.ac.uk/~mflanaga/thresholds.html
  • 7. ‘One Line’ Examples • Maths: complex number, a limit, the Fourier transform • Economics: opportunity cost, price elasticity • Quantitative Finance: Ito's lemma, change of measure, risk neutrality, incomplete markets A couple of questions: • Which concepts did your students experience the most difficulty with? • Were you satisfied with progress of your students in understanding of those concepts and disciplinary modelling (e.g., econometrics)?
  • 8. A Big Box of Tools for Quantitative Finance • The discipline utilises techniques of pure and applied mathematics (analysis & measure theory; stochastic calculus & PDE solution methods) and statistics • There are discipline-specific modelling techniques: replication of instrument with a portfolio and pricing via expectations (FATF & Feynman-Kac) Option pricing formulae were known explcitly from 1960 but real significance was in how they were derived by B-S. Delta- hedging and independence of expected rate of return were the great discoveries awarded the Nobel Prize (Haug 2007: 39-40). Finance maths is simple: PDEs are parabolic and numerical methods are well-specified
  • 9. Example: Black’76 Formula for Fixed Income Derivatives The proof of Black’s (1976) formula involved the following mathematics: differential equations, Brownian Motion, stochastic calculus and Ito’s integral (Ito’s lemma), double change of measure (Girsanov theorem) to obtain a futures martingale measure, Feynman-Kac theorem, and assumptions allowing to use the Normal Distribution. The following techniques specific to quantitative finance were also utilised: forward price (given discounting in continuos time), self-financing trading strategy, no arbitrage valuation, FAPF and Black-Scholes solutions formulae. That was an extremely brief overview of a dense 8-page proof
  • 10. A Maths Sweet Spot • The idea is advocated by Paul Wilmott (2009) “The models should not be too elementary so as to make it impossible to invent new structured products, but nor should they be so abstract as to be easily misunderstood by all except their inventor (and sometimes even by him), with the obvious and financially dangerous consequences.” • Example of CDO and CDO^2 products that show ‘bizarre’ correlation behaviours (to default) that are different for each tranche, leading to ‘off the cliff’ scenario for value • Tendency to make presentation of finance research overly complex (unlike experts, students cannot discern a paper) Outside of the sweet spot, model risk is increased
  • 11. ‘Live’ Integration • The following Illustrations show how expert practitioners, who were faculty and tutors on CQF programme, mapped concepts during their sessions • Programme participants reported ‘a transformative impact’ on their knowledge, generated by experiences of dynamic mapping of disciplinary concepts Understanding of the Illustrations requires familiarity with the type of modelling done in quantitative finance
  • 12. Illustration 1 compares Black-Scholes pricing equation that applies locally (pricing over the next small period) to FAPF that applies globally (over the life of a product)
  • 13. Illustration 2 aims to show a critical difference between risk-free and forward rates: forward rate curve is not an expected path of a mean-reverting risk-free rate
  • 14. Popular one-factor spot-rate models The real spot rate r satisfies the stochastic differential equation dr = u(r, t)dt + w(r, t)dX. (4) Model u(r, t) − λ(r, t)w(r, t) w(r, t) Vasicek a − br c CIR a − br cr1/2 Ho & Lee a(t) c Hull & White I a(t) − b(t)r c(t) Hull & White II a(t) − b(t)r c(t)r1/2 General affine a(t) − b(t)r (c(t)r − d(t))1/2 Here λ(r, t) denotes the market price of risk. The function u − λw is the risk-adjusted drift. For all of these models the zero-coupon bond value is of the form Z(r, t; T ) = eA(t,T )−rB(t,T ). Certificate in Quantitative Finance 36 Illustration 3 relates the parameters (e.g, drift and process volatility) of several named stochastic interest rate models to the same parameters in one generalised model
  • 15. Illustration 4 is a flow chart that utilises ‘black boxes’ to present sophisticated statistical procedures for testing and modelling of long-term relationships in a simple form
  • 16. Learning Situations Design • Go through mathematical proofs ‘by hand’ and make learners comfortable with volumes of it • Teach initial modelling skills without the formal disciplinary apparatus • Structure situations in which insight comes from the re-working of prior knowledge and replacing of simple ways of understanding For an example, see DEE 2007 Keynote on Teaching Undergraduate Econometrics by Prof. David Hendry http://www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk/dee2007/
  • 17. Assessment in Quantitative Subjects • Provide scaffolding for knowledge integration early in the module: hand out past exam papers at the first lecture and suggest portable textbooks • Design assessment so as to remove incentives for surface learning: include questions on reasoning, model derivation and output interpretation • Be realistic about what is possible. In cases such as a six-week Masters module, we can only bring specific mathematical and modelling skills up to a standard • If things are tight, choose a project over exam
  • 18. This was the first glance at pedagogic value of the threshold concept approach. With feedback and suggestions for further enquiry, please get in touch via richard.diamond@ucl.ac.uk