The document discusses three potential changes to the real estate industry: 1. The MLS (Multiple Listing Service) could become regulated as a public utility, requiring open access to listing data and setting standard rules and fees. This would reduce their monopoly power. 2. Realogy, the largest real estate brokerage, could acquire Zillow, gaining its technology capabilities and massive online audience. This would provide recruiting and referral advantages. 3. Walmart could expand into real estate brokerage, leveraging its large retail footprint, data analytics expertise, and low-cost business model to become a dominant discount broker. This would significantly increase competition in the industry.

1. three black rob hahn real estate
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2. #1: The MLS Becomes a Public Utility

3. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
House Financial Services Subcommittee
on Housing and Community Opportunity
“The Changing Real Estate Market”
July, 2006

4. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
“Second, because the MLSs
and Realtor.com so dominate
listing services, they function
as a near-monopoly and
should be regulated as a
public utility.”
Stephen Brobeck Executive Director
Consumer Federation of America

5. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility

6. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
then 2008 happens

7. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility

8. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility

9. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
“The absence of relevant data for
use in RMBS modeling left the
credit rating agencies unable to
accurately predict mortgage
default and loss rates when
housing prices stopped
climbing.”

10. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility

11. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
No National Coverage

12. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
Powered By

13. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
‣ Detailed listings data for everyone!
‣ Pay to use; get paid to add (see, electric
utilities & solar power)
‣ Rules & fees set by government regulators
‣ Compliance a matter of law
‣ No cooperation and compensation

14. #2: Realogy Acquires Zillow

15. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow
vs.
Market Cap Market Cap
$6.35 billion $1.84 billion
Revenues Revenues
$4.7 billion $116.8 million
Core Operating Cash Flow Core Operating Cash Flow
$593 million* $32.3 million
* I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy

16. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow
What’s missing?

17. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow
+
Unparalleled footprint 50 million monthly uniques
Strong management Enormous technology
track record capabilities
Core part of industry; 30% of GCI Model
ultimate “insider” (see relocation)
* I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy

18. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow
‣ Massive recruiting & retention advantage for
Realogy companies
‣ Syndication no longer an issue
‣ Realogy gets more “broker leads” for
overrides & Zillow gets relocation-type
referral revenues
‣ Veteran leadership, meet brilliant young
entrepreneurs

19. #3: WalMart Realty Expands

20. 3. WalMart Realty Expands

21. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
‣ 2013 Forecast for Existing Home Sales:
4.98 million sales
$173,600 median price
‣ US Housing Market = $864 billion
‣ Industry GCI (@6%) = $51.84 billion

22. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
‣ NRT is largest brokerage in the U.S.
‣ 710 offices with 41,300 agents
‣ 289,409 closed sides in 2012
‣ $3.4 billion in revenues in 2012 (7.8%)

23. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
‣ 2.2 million employees
worldwide
‣ 4,637 stores in the US
‣ 100 million customers
every week
‣ Has brokerage licenses

24. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
this license more difficult to obtain

25. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
walmart data center Area 71
colorado springs Caverna, MO
‣ World-class information technology
‣ Big Data & Predictive Analytics
‣ In 2004, WalMart had 460 terabytes of data
(twice the size of the Internet)

26. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
+
How’s that for a discount brokerage?
‣ Footprint + Technology + Management
‣ Dominant Cost Competition Advantage

27. 3. WalMart Realty Expands

28. scenario strategy
leads to planning

29. Thank You!
rhahn@7dsassociates.com
@robhahn