global warming

1. CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Global warming means a scientific phenomenon of rising of temperature of earth.
This rise of temperature is catalyzed with the increase of carbon emission in the
environment. It is why world has witnessed an identical change in the global
climate in the last quarter of the twentieth century. Human activities are the main
causes for this change. Climate change specially characterized with global
warming is the greatest challenge of the 21st
century to the mankind. It has
already shown adverse effects on the various aspects of the life and the world is
scary about its consequences such as deteriorating eco-system, worse draughts,
and alteration in agriculture system, contamination in soil and water bodies, loss
of biodiversity and many others, which we have to accept in upcoming future. In
general, the degree of global warming and its future projection has threatened the
very existence of human life.
Though, the effect of the global warming is global, the immediate effect to the
developing countries is daunting. Number of reports on the scientific findings
regarding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor
region, especially the developing countries appear at the greatest risk from the
projected effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small as
compared to the developed world. The impending threats have been duly
identified and attention initiated on a global scale on the table at least for now.
Since the treaty provisions were denied by some western world including the US,
the challenges of global warming remain and continue to threaten the very
existence of the life. Today, climate change has evolved as a socio-political issue,
a marked departure from environmental and scientific concerns.
Global warming is the current increase in temperature of the Earth's surface (both
land and water) as well as it's atmosphere. Average temperatures around the world
have risen by 0.75°C over the last 100 years about two thirds of this increase has
occurred since 1975. In the past, when the Earth experienced increases in

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temperature it was the result of natural causes but today it is being caused by the
increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produced by human activities.
The natural greenhouse effect maintains the Earth's temperature at a safe level
making it possible for humans and many other lives. However, since the Industrial
Revolution human activities have drastically enhanced the greenhouse effect
causing the Earth's average temperature to rise by almost 1°C. This is creating the
global warming we see today. To put this increase in perspective it is important to
understand that during the last ice age, a period of massive climate change, the
average temperature change around the globe was only about 5°C.
Global warming has already threatened the human existence in some regions of
the world. Projected submergence of the Maldives by 2025 is one burning
example. South Asia is the most vulnerable region to global warming due to its
geographical location and under-development, while Nepal remains at the
forefront. At this moment, it is imperative that the causes, effects and challenges
of global warming are assessed and effective measures are taken before any
disaster.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The global warming is real, so are its impacts; thus is threatening human existence
and the eco-system at large. Lack of commitment from all has made the issue
more complex - putting existence of mankind at stake. The major factor for global
warming is human being however non-human factor i.e. natural process also
contributes for global warming which is yet to be researched in detail. Here
human factor is given more emphasis since human factor has disturbed the
ecological balance. Many developed and developing countries are the major
carbon emitters thus the main reason for global warming. There is multitude of
problems rising from global warming ranging in the various domain of national
security.
The researcher has however made an attempt to analyze and surf answers to the
following research problems:-

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1.2.1 What is global warming?
1.2.2 What are the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal?
1.2.3 What are the mitigation measures of global warming?
1.3 Objectives of the Study
Basically, the objective of this study is to analyze causes of global warming and
the question of human existence due to its impacts and consequences. This paper
aims to achieve the following specific objectives:-
1.3.1 To examine the causes and consequences of global warming.
1.3.2 To examine the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal.
1.3.3 To identify mitigation measures of global warming in Nepal.
1.4 Significance of the Study
This research will add a new insight in understanding the issues related to global
warming on the Nepalese prospectus in general. It will determine the effect of
global warming in national security. This research will make an endeavor to
identify measures to mitigate the affect of global warming on national security
and recommend the means to control global warming. Hence, this research will be
useful and purposeful to all students, scholars and environmental activists.
Moreover, this research can be helpful to political leaders, policy makers and
academia by providing general idea on global warming, acquaint with the likely
threat to national security.
1.5 Limitations of the Study
As a piece of academic research, the present study limits itself within some
boundaries. Data collection is primarily based on the published secondary
sources. It is difficult to conduct field visits and collect primary data representing
global warming in any specific areas however survey and structured interview has
been conducted among the students and subject matter experts from Kathmandu
only.

4. 4
Research topic is a highly demanding topic and there are so many literature
published to address such a pressing issue, however researcher have reviewed
some literature, mainly related to Nepalese context.
1.6 Organization of the Study
For better understanding of the study, the paper has been organized into five
chapters as follows.
1.6.1 Chapter I Introduction.
1.6.2 Chapter II Research Methodology
1.6.3 Chapter III Review of the Literature
1.6.4 Chapter IV Causes and Effect of Global Warming on national security
of Nepal
1.6.5 Chapter V Mitigation measures of Global Warning in Nepal
1.6.6 Chapter VI Findings, Conclusion and Recommendations

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CHAPTER II
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
2.1 Justification for the Selection of Research Topic
Global warming is one of the pressing issues of this century. Along with the
technological advancement and human endeavor to use fossil fuel for
developmental purpose, carbon emission into the environment had been
increased. This increase of carbon in the atmosphere has created green house
effect causing global warming. This topic of global warming is directly related to
the existence of human being and other living creatures so research topic has got
global concern. Thus, the researcher was interested to look into the depth of this
highly talked topic and identify its impact on Federal Democratic Republic of
Nepal along with the recommendations to mitigate the effect of global warming.
2.2 Approach of the study
Primarily, both quantitative and qualitative inquiry approach was adopted to
perform the research. To collect quantitative data survey was done and to get
qualitative data interview was performed. Basically the survey was done with the
students of environment science, MBBS, geology, economics, political science
and strategic studies from different academic institutions in Kathmandu. Some
secondary sources of data were also used for the research. Books, articles and
websites were referred as a secondary source for the study. All those data are
analyzed to interpret the likely effect of Global warming on national security of
Nepal. For this, the research has been carried out using descriptive cum analytical
research methods.
2.2.1 Study area
To perform this research, Kathmandu the capital city of Nepal had been chosen as
a study area. Being a capital of the country, many resources personnel are easily
available. Also the gathering of people from almost every corner of Nepal
happens here than any other area of Nepal. Hence, for this research academic
institution of Kathmandu valley was the primary study area. The subject matter

6. 6
experts on global warming were selected and structured interview was carried out
with the resource personnel.
2.2.2 Universe & Sample
Since the study is targeted to identify the likely effect of global warming, students
from the different college studying at minimum of bachelor level are surveyed
with the survey questionnaire to know their view on the effect of global warming.
The variety of sample will provide an opportunity to understand view of students
enrolled in different faculty at Bachelor level on this pressing issue.
2.2.3 Nature of Data
Data for the research was collected both from primary and secondary sources. For
the primary data a survey question and interview question were prepared. Survey
questions were distributed in the sample area for the required sample size. In the
similar way interview question, for qualitative primary data was prepared and
based on those questions interviews were conducted with the required sample
personnel as described above.
2.2.4 Methods of Data Collection
For the collection of data following methods have been adopted for this research:
2.2.4.1 Survey
To conduct the survey, four questions were prepared to know the understanding
and view of students reading different faculty at Bachelor level among different
colleges in Kathmandu. Forty students from each faculty will be surveyed with
survey questionnaires as shown in appendix A.
2.2.4.2 Interview
Structured interviews with some subject matter experts was conducted based on
the questionnaire as shown in appendix B.

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2.3 Data Collection Tools
Surveys questionnaires form (shown in appendix A) and structured interview
questionnaires (shown in appendix B) were the primary tools for the data
collection. Respondent were from Bachelor students of various faculty
(environment science, MBBS, geology, economics, political science and strategic
studies) who are believed to be among the aware citizen of Nepal.
2.4 Conceptual Framework
There are different school of thoughts regarding interrelationship of global
warming with national security. One school of thought advocates that global
warming is not real and it is just a means to threaten population, countries in order
to attain vested interest. Other school of thought highlights that global warming is
as disastrous as nuclear explosion with the capacity of destroying whole human
civilisation.
2.4.1 National security National security is the protection of nation and
people from various threats. The United Nations has defined security as freedom
from wants and fear which means the citizens get everything that is due to them
from the state and the state is also responsible for their safety and security.
National security is a concept that a government, along with its parliament(s),
should protect the state and its citizens against all kind of national crises through a
variety of power projections, such as political power, diplomacy, economic power,
military might, and so on (Palleri, 1996). The challenge of today’s states is not
only to defend their territorial integrity and independence. People in the country
may be threatened by unavailability of food, water, various health problems,
poverty, education security, environmental factors, energy insecurity and many
more.
2.4.2 Global warming an emerging threat to national security
Global warming can affect all the dimension of national security namely Military
security, Economic security, Resource security, Border security, Demographic
security, Disaster security, Energy security, Informational security, Food security,
Health security, Ethnic security, Environmental security, Cyber security Genomic

8. 8
security. With global warming economic condition will be weakened which in the
long run can create a favourable ground for development of insurgency and
terrorism as well. There are not only human causes for global warming but natural
causes also contribute to raise earths' temperature.
2.4.3 Causes of Global warming
Global warming is the result of GHE. GHG are emitted to the atmosphere both by
natural and artificial means. Natural causes like volcanic eruption, water current
on ocean, rotation of earth, solar variations, water vapor & atmospheric humidity
are responsible for global warming. Human causes are equally responsible which
mainly involves human activities responsible for the emission of GHG with the
use of fossil fuels in running automobiles & industries as well as deforestation.
2.4.4 Combating Global Warming
It needs three pronged approach i.e. adaptation, Legislation and mitigation.

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CHAPTER III
REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
Lately, extensive studies have been done on the global warming and its
consequences. Different literatures and websites on this have been reviewed for
the study putting research problem in context. In the subsequent paragraphs, the
critical summary of some literatures is done to identify the gaps.
In the book “The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of
Civilizations”, Brian Fagan believes climate is not merely a backdrop to the
ongoing drama of human civilization, but an important stage upon which world
events turn. He also writes “Even without greenhouse gases, the effects of
prolonged droughts would be far more catastrophic today than they were even a
century ago.” Highlighting the severe consequences of global warming, he has
further said that global warming will induce mass migration of different species of
animals from one place to another, including that of the human. Thus, such
migration will be responsible for the extinction of some species and clashes of
civilization will take place resulting the rise and fall of civilizations.
The book “Climate Change and Global Warming: An Introduction” by Anup
Shah also believes that the global warming is result of natural events and human
activities. If the present trend of global warming keeps on going then, it will
potentially threaten the survival of the mankind.
The popular book “A Contract With the Earth”authored by Newt Gingrich and
Terry L. Maple presents stories, ideas, and events that illustrate how threatening
the global warming is and how people worldwide are coping with environmental
problems.
The book “Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction” of Mark Maslin’s
theoretically analyze the impacts of global warming in the upcoming years and
the surprise that could be in store for us in the near future. He is questioning in the
end of his book by discussing the politics of global warming and looks out what
we can do now to adapt to climate change and mitigate its worst effects.

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IPCC (2007).The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of
vulnerability. Special report of IPCC working group II. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press. This report has highlighted that the temperature of the world has
been increased by 0.6 in the twentieth century has been greater than in any other
century during the past 1000 years. This report has indicated that Himalaya region
are very sensitive to climate changes due to its geographical pattern. Widespread
retreat of the world’s glaciers and Changes in the snowfall pattern was observed
during the 20th century. This report has mentioned Snow covered area of the
Himalaya has been decreased and if the same warming ratio and snow melting
ratio remain the trends, 80% of Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years and
two billion people may be affected by the glacier retreats in the Himalayas.
Sharma, K.P. (2010). Climate change trend and its impact in Nepal.Kathmandu:
JalashrotVikasSanstha. The writer has alarmed the stakeholders that Nepal’s
averaged mean temperature increases of 1.2°C and 3°C projected by 2050 and
2100. Nepal is facing multiple disaster incidents due to climate change. More
impact on glacier dynamics has been observed in Himalaya due to rise of
temperature an average 0.12 °C /yr during 1975 to 2005.with the increase of the
warming rate in Himalayas the socio economic status has been badly affected due
the decreasing trend of agriculture production as well as decreasing trend of
tourism activities.
Gautam, M.R., Timilsina. R. &Acharya, K. (2012). Climate Change in the
Himalayas: Current State of Knowledge. Kathmandu: Policy Research Working
Paper. The study has broadly covered biophysical impacts of climate change on
the Himalayas including possibility of natural hazards and point out that
Himalaya regions are more Vulnerable due to increased temperature trend in
altitude over small distances. High dependence on natural resources and lack of
resources to cope with the changing climate have severely affected the well being
of the mountain people.
ICIMOD, (2007), Impacts of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial
Lakes, Kathmandu: International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.
International Center for Integrated Mountain Development This report has
concluded that The impact of global warming is already being felt by the most

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vulnerable-the world's poorest people and countries and its impact is severe on
Nepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions. The writer has also
highlighted the glacier retreat in mountain and its consequences in mountain of
Nepal. Many small glacier lake have been merged and formed new lake which are
potential for Glacier lake outburst flood(GLOF).
Nepal, S.K. (2011). Tourism and the environment-Perspectives from the
Nepalese Himalaya. Kathmandu: Himal Books. This paper provides an overview
of climate change impacts in tourism destinations in the Nepalese Himalaya.
Avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods landslides, debris flows and flash
floods, vector born diseases, environment degradation and other climatic extreme
event are the major hazards which are threatening tourism industry in Nepal
especially in mountain. The writer has also emphasized Adaptation strategies for
tourism stakeholders and local communities and also suggested to adopt the
alternative occupation for livelihood.
Gupta, S. P. (2010). Climate Change and its Impact on Forest Resource Base at
Global and Local Level.Unpublished master degree thesis submitted to
Kathmandu University, Nepal. The writer has mentioned that Himalayan forests
are expected to be among those most vulnerable to climate change because
temperatures are expected to increase more in the arctic/alpine zones, bringing more
changes in precipitation. However, even the increased precipitation is unlikely to
provide sufficient moisture because of increased evaporation due to rising summer
temperatures - leading to decreased soil moisture. This will cause more drought-
resistant trees or grasslands to replace existing forest ecosystems. During the past two
decades, summer temperatures have frequently exceeded the critical threshold of the
most valuable timber species of the himalayan forest. Over coming decades, scientists
predict continued hot summer temperatures that will force these species into sharp
decline, even pushing them to extinction.
NASA, (2013).Global climate change vital sign of plant, an article published by
NASA which described mainly about global warming and climate change. The author
has amply covered about the causes of global warming and even recommended ways
to mitigate and create adaptation on the climate change. Author mentioned that
climate change is a natural and slow process.

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Chaudhary&Aryal, 2009.Global warming in Nepal: Challenges & Policy Imperatives
published on Feb 2008 vol 8 has amply explained on global warming on the global
context and in the later part authors have related it to the Nepalese context. Case
studies mentioning about the impact GLOF on different dates in Nepal has also been
mentioned in the journal. The author has mentioned about the three prong approach to
mitigate the threat created by global warming. Writers have opined about the
requirement of mitigation, adaptation and policy matters to address the threat created
by global warming.
All of the literatures reviewed during the research in one way or the other
expressed that global warming and climate change has been a very critical issue in
Nepalese context. Due to the poor infrastructure and lack of strong economy
impact of global warming will be very critical to Nepal. However the literatures
so reviewed have not been able to explain global warming in relation to national
security. Researcher has made an attempt to look into the matter in relation to the
national security of Federal Republic of Nepal.

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CHAPTER IV
CAUSES & EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING
ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF NEPAL
4.1 General Background
Nepal only houses 0.4 percent of the total global population and is responsible for
only 0.025 percent of total GHG emissions in the world, however global warming
is impacting Nepal very adversely. In Nepal, overall glacier area and ice reserve
have declined by 21% and 28%, respectively, between 2001 and 2010
(Bajracharya, 2011).
Nepal's mountains which are called the water tower of Asia are under threat as a
result of impact of global warming because of retreat of glaciers (Basnet, 2014).
As glaciers recede from rapid snow and ice melting, glacier lakes are expanding.
Climate-induced disasters and other effects have caused damages and losses to
life, property, and livelihoods impacting national security as a whole. The major
causes of global warming are described in the following paragraph.
4.2 Major causes of Global warming Global warming is the result
of GHE. GHG are emitted to the atmosphere both by natural and artificial means.
Based on the data collected during research my respondents have given their view
on cause of global warming as shown below

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45%
55%
Cause of global warming
Natural cause
Human induced
Figure 1. Figure showing the main cause of global warming prepared by
researcher based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in
2018
Table 1. Table showing the main cause of global warming prepared by researcher
based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018
Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents studying different
faculty at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that 44.58 % of the
students believes that the major cause of global warming is natural and 55.41%
opine that it is human induced.
4.2.1 Natural Causes of Global warming.
Natural phenomenon contributes for global warming which are volcano, ocean
current, earth’s orbital change and solar variations.
4.2.1.1 Volcanic eruption.
Volcanic eruption release huge amount of carbon gases in the environment which
in the long run acts as the GHG and contribute for global warming
(www.bionomicfuel.com).
S.No Natural cause Human induced
1 107 133

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4.2.1.2 Water current on Ocean.
Ocean currents move vast amounts of heat across the planet. Winds push
horizontally against the sea surface and drive ocean current patterns. Changes in
ocean circulation may affect the climate through the movement of CO2 into or out
of the atmosphere (www.climatechangechallenge.org).
4.2.1.3 Rotation of Earth.
Earth's rotation changes orientation of earth to the sun and affects the amount of
sunlight reaching higher latitudes, particularly the polar regions (Stricherz,2014).
As a result of earth's rotation, certain areas may get more or less radiation from
the sun, and affect the temperature (www.bionomicfuel.com).
4.2.1.4 Solar variations.
During cycles of increased sun spots and solar flares, the temperature of the earth
does warm up but this is usually temporary (www.bionomicfuel.com).
4.2.1.5 Water Vapor & Atmospheric Humidity. Water vapor is the most
significant greenhouse gas. Atmospheric humidity is associated with water vapor.
Water vapor absorbs the majority of rays across the infrared spectrum while
carbon dioxide only absorbs three narrow bands that overlap with those being
absorbed by water vapor (www.ehow.com).
4.2.2 Human Causes of Climate Change.
The primary reason of climate change is the manmade as follows
4.2.2.1 Agriculture.
Agriculture has significant effects on climate change, primarily through the
production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide. Agriculture alters Earth's land cover, which can change its ability to
absorb or reflect heat and light (www.climatechangechallenge.org). The high rate
of application of nitrogen-rich fertilizers for increasing agricultural products
creates ‘dead-zones’ in our oceans and enhances greenhouse gases
(www.planetsave.com).

16. 16
4.2.2.2 Deforestation.
Rainforests every year help to absorb almost 20% of manmade CO2 emissions
therefore deforestation can be taken as a major contributor of global warming.
Cutting down rainforests faster than they can be replaced has a devastating effect
on the carbon emission cycle by producing an extra 17% of GHG
(www.climatechangechallenge.org).
4.2.2.3 Increase on the use of fossil fuel.
With the introduction of industrial era, ratio of burning fossil fuel is increasing.
Increased dependency on power created with burning of fossil fuel like coal, oil
and gas to create power for automobiles, domestic use and industrial use has
increased GHG emission. During survey respondents have given mixed opinion
on gases responsible for global warming as follows
Figure 2. Figure showing opinion of respondents on the gases responsible for
global warming based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in
Kathmandu in 2018

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Gases Envt
science
MBBS Geology Economics Pol
Science
Strat
Studies
Carbon-dioxide
(CO2)
5 25 5 20 15 7
Carbon-
monoxide (CO)
- 3 2 3 2 2
Methane (CH4) - 6 3 7 3 1
All 35 6 30 10 20 30
Table 2. Table showing opinion of respondents on the gases responsible for global
warming based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in
2018.
Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents, it is seen that majority
of samples i.e. 54.58% of students opine that gases related to carbon family are
responsible for global warming. Whereas the shared opinion on global warming
was also seen which indicates 32.08% find CO2 responsible, 8.33% opine CH4 as
major contributor and 5% think CO is responsible for global warming.
4.2.2.4 Mining.
Large scale mining contributes for emission of GHG through the use of fossil fuel
based vehicles, large construction plants, generators and blasting activities are
likely to release huge amount of methane and hydrogen sulfides along with
fugitive dusts (NaikLast, 2011). Current mining practices involve significant
deforestation. As forest is huge carbon sink, its destruction for mining purpose is
accelerating emission of GHG in atmosphere (Center for environment Concerns,
2014).
4.3 National Security
National security is the protection of nation and people from various threats. The
United Nations has defined security as freedom from wants and fear which means
the citizens get everything that is due to them from the state and the state is also

18. 18
responsible for their safety and security. The classical realists believe in the
concept that as long as the state is secured, everything within it will be secured.
National security has been the main concern of the political states from the
beginning of the human civilization even till today. Previously, the states were
supposed to be safeguarding the national security through the use of their military
strength and national security itself was regarded as the security of national
boundary, independence and sovereignty. This concept remained predominant for
nearly two thousand years, especially in Europe but after the fall of one of the
most powerful actors of the world system in 1990, the traditional thinking about
the national security gave way to the non-traditional thinking.
As an alternative to the traditional conception, human security discourse along
with the other security conceptions like political security, economic security,
community security, health security, environmental security and food security
were adopted as the method of analysis in the national security studies as well as
in dealing with the newly emerging problems of the world. The best method of
ensuring national security is by striking balance among these traditional approach
and non traditional approach.
After the end of Cold war and the, acceleration of globalization, the definition of
national security threats has been widened and deepened. There are many new
dimensions and issues, which include ethnic and religious conflicts, terrorism,
migration, environmental degradation, communicable diseases, democracy,
human right violation, gender, crime, poverty, hunger and deprivation. In other
words National security is a concept that a government, along with its
parliament(s), should protect the state and its citizens against all kind of national
crises through a variety of power projections, such as political power, diplomacy,
economic power, military might, and so on (Palleri, 1996). The challenge of
today’s states is not only to defend their territorial integrity and independence.
People in the country may be threatened by unavailability of food, water, various
health problems, poverty, education security, environmental factors, energy
insecurity and many more.

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4.4 Elements of National Security
The national security has number of component elements which, when
individually satisfied, provide a nation with security of its values, interests and
freedom to choose policy. Besides the military aspect of security, the aspects of
politics, society, environment, energy & natural resources and economics are
commonly listed elements by various authorities (Elements of national security,
2015). Prabhakaran Paleri, an Indian academician has listed Military security,
Economic security, Resource security, Border security, Demographic security,
Disaster security, Energy security, Informational security, Food security, Health
security, Ethnic security, Environmental security, Cyber security Genomic
security as the elements of national security in his book National Security:
Imperatives and Challenges.
It has become equally important for a state to protect its people from security
vulnerability, guarantee their livelihood , provide them sufficient foods, clothes,
shelters , health care ,education and also guarantee them fundamental rights like
freedom of expression , organization and freedom from fear and violence. Global
warming remains as a major factor which is likely to aggravate the existing
volatile security situation of developing countries like Nepal.

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Figure 3: Figure showing the impact of Global warming
Source: Author's own creation with ref to National Security: Imperatives and
Challenges
4.5 Global Warming and National Security
National Security is concerned with the protection, preservation and furtherance
of the core values of a nation against both internal and external threats. National
security covers a broad range of activities to prevent a nation from traditional to
non-traditional threats (Katzenstein, 1996). Threat to security may occur in form

21. 21
of military, culture, environmental degradation, terrorism, acts of social violence
etc. The problems of today, such as drought, forest fires, and flooding is the result
of climate change influenced by global warming (Dixit, 2009). During survey
respondents have given their combined opinion on whether global warming has
any bearing on national security or not as depicted by the picture below.
65%
35%
Effect of Global warming on national
security of FDRN
IMPACTS
Figure 4. Figure showing opinion of respondents on whether global warming has
any effect to national security of FRDN or not based on survey conducted among
240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018.
Table 3. Table showing opinion of respondents on whether global warming has
any effect to national security of FRDN or not based on survey conducted among
240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018
Looking at the result of survey done among 240 respondents studying different
faculty at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that 64.58% of
respondents argue that global warming has critical impact on national security
whereas 35.41% of respondents mentioned that global warming have no
connotation with national security.
S.No IMPACTS DOESNOT IMPACT
1 155 85

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4.6 General Impacts of Global Warming
There is a worldwide consensus that global warming is a real, rapidly advancing
and widespread threat facing humanity this century. Scientists have presented
evidence and tested models to substantiate this truly alarming fact (Permesan
1996, Pounds et al. 1999, IPCC 2001, Woodward 2002, Klanderud and Birks
2003, Hall and Fagre 2003). The evidence confirms that man‐made factors such
as deforestation, agriculture, industries, automobiles, and the burning of fossil
fuels, are contributing to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission, a major cause of
global warming (IPCC 2001). The warming has manifold impacts on ecosystems
and biological behaviours. Some widely discussed impacts include snow melting
and glacier retreat, drought and desertification, flooding, frequent fire, sea level
rise, species shifts, and heightened diseases incidence. These ecological and
biological responses can consequently lead to serious consequences for human
wellbeing (Easterling et al. 2000, Mehl and Karl 2000).
Scientific studies show that snowlines will be higher and snow packs will melt
earlier. Winter and night-time temperatures will tend to rise more than summer
and daytime temperatures. Many of these trends have already started being
observed (NSIDC, 2009). Global warming impacts different sectors as illustrated
below

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Figure 5. Figure showing the impact of Global warming
Source: Chaudhary&Aryal 2009
4.7 Nepal: Land of climate diversity
Within small territory Nepal has diverse climatic conditions, ranging from
tropical in the south to alpine in the north. Nepalese hydrology is dependent on
SAM. The livelihood of over three-quarters of Nepali is based on agriculture and
forest resources, and almost 65 percent of agriculture is rain-fed (MoPE, 2000).
Yet only 21 % of Nepal's area is cultivable and irrigable. Agriculture depends on

24. 24
the nature of land, most likely to be affected by erratic rainfall. This shows that
climatic condition had direct bearing on food production of Nepal.
4.8 An overview of Climate Change in Nepal in Security
Perception
Nepal has a wide variation of climates from subtropical in the south, warm and
cool in the hills to cold in the mountains within a horizontal distance of less than
200 km (DHM, 2005, p.32). The climate of Nepal is dominated by monsoon and
about 80% of annual precipitation occurs during the summer (DHM, 2005, p.23).
The amount of precipitation varies considerably from place to place because of
the non-uniform rugged terrain. However, the amount of rainfall generally
declines from east to west (DHM, 2005, p.26). The main reason of climate change
is global warming.
4.9 Effects of Global warming in FDRN
The major effects of global warming on Nepal can be summarized as follows
4.9.1 Impacts on glacier melting and stream flow
Warm temperature can cause significant effect on mountain glaciers around the
world including Himalayas & glaciers of Nepal. Ice on the Himalayas reflect
sunlight back out to space which has a cooling effect. Water and land, which are
darker than ice, absorb and retain more heat. However with the increase in GHG
heat is retained in earth's atmosphere causing rapid retreat of glaciers.
The UNEP had warned on 2008 that 20 big glacial lakes in the country are at risk
of floods from glacial lake bursts, which could trigger huge loss of life and
property. Melt water is thought to account for about 10% of annual stream flow in
Nepal (Sharma, 1977) with rivers of western Nepal receiving more melt water
than those in eastern Nepal (Kattelmann,1993). The glaciers are melting, creating
mountain lakes that threaten to sweep away villages situated at the base of the
mountains. According to a report on BBC, there are 3,250 glaciers in the Nepalese
Himalayas, and 2,315 of them contain glacial lakes that are increasing in size at
varying rates. The disappearance of glaciers also means that the rivers fed by the

25. 25
glaciers may run dry in the near future (Himalaya Times, 2010). The effect of
GLOF that occurred at different period of time remains as stated below
Figure 6. Figure showing damage caused by GLOF in Nepal
Source: Chaudhary&Aryal 2009
4.9.2 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security
Global warming of a few degrees may increase agricultural production, but not
necessarily in the same places where crops are grown now. Crops and woodlands
may also be afflicted by more insects and plant diseases. Agricultural areas will
need to adapt to changing conditions, such as by shifting the types of crops grown
or investing in drought-tolerant or heat-tolerant varieties. Scientists estimate that
warming of up to about 3 Celsius degrees (5.4 Fahrenheit degrees) could increase
global agricultural potential, but that further warming is likely to decrease this
potential. Thus, there won’t be any negative impact on agricultural production till
21st
century.
Changed climate pattern has affected food production in Nepal. Prediction
suggests by 2020 rice production decreases by 6.1-7.7% whereas by 2050
production is likely to decrease by 10.4-20.7%, and by 2080 it is likely to
decreases by 18.7-34.6% from the baseline 1990s (Masutomi, 2009). In Nepal,

26. 26
good rice yield is correlated with timely and adequate monsoon rainfall. In 2006,
poor monsoon rainfall led to a 30% drop in rice production in eastern Terai, while
heavy rainfall and flooding in western Nepal reduced production by the same
amount (Regmi and Paudyal, 2009).
4.9.3 Impacts on Precipitation and Water Supply
As the precipitation pattern is varying in Himalayas, Nepal is likely to experience
decrease in water resources in coming decades. Increasing water temperatures can
cause algal blooms and potentially increase bacteria in water bodies impacting
health directly (UNEP, 2006). The country is expected to be wetter annually
6.22±6.56% and in monsoon 14.98±9.74%, but drier in winter -17.58±2.53% by
2080 (Agrawala, 2003, MoPE, 2004, Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008). The scenarios
indicate 0-5% reduction in monsoon precipitation in northern Nepal (Rupa
Kumar, 2006).
4.9.4 Impacts on Human Health
In a warmer world, Scientists have predicted that more people will get sick or die
from heat stress caused by intense heat waves. At the same time, there will be
some decrease in number of cold-related deaths. Diseases such as malaria,
transmitted by mosquitoes and other animal hosts, are projected to widen their
range as these animal hosts move into regions formerly too cold for them. Other
tropical diseases like dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis may spread as
well. Scientists have found that the platelets in Human Blood composition is
decreasing, which could be the catastrophic for all individual (Parry, Canziani,
Palutikof ,Linden and C.E. Hanson, 2007 ).
4.9.5 Global Warming as a Security Threat
This is likely to worsen the existing problems and increasing deprivation caused
by global warming might lead to poverty which in turn would lead to conflict.
However, there is a real concern that those causal linkages may not, in fact, be
credible (Pumphrey, 2008
.)
Mobilization of more manpower like Governments
governmental officials to mitigate the likely threats pose
-
workers, volunteers, non

27. 27
more expenses and reduce the national income which may lead to degradation of
national power. An economically weak state is vulnerable to diversity of threats.
4.10 Brief Analysis
The vital strategic interests of nation like economic development, political
stability, national sovereignty and territorial integrity is preserved by the status of
livelihood of people. Livelihoods are likely to be seriously challenged due to
global warming. Events such as fires, floods, landslides and droughts are
prominent risks. With global warming, there could be negative impact on tourism,
herbal plant trade, decrease in productivity, increament of vector borne disease,
increased vulnerability of natural disaster, biodiversity and forest resources.
Melting of Himalayan snowline due to increased temperatures could increase
annual water discharge in short term but in the long run an acute shortage of water
is foreseen. The multiple stresses of climate change would disrupt the ecology of
mountainous and hilly regions and would affect human population profoundly.
Agriculture productivity would suffer severe losses and attainment of food
security would be under tremendous threats.

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CHAPTER V
MITIGATION OF GLOBAL WARMING IN NEPAL
Global warming is a complex problem felt on local scale which will exist for
decades and centuries to come. It causes climate change It involves many
dimensions like science, economics, society, politics, moral and ethical questions.
Carbon dioxide, the heat-trapping greenhouse gas that has driven recent global
warming, lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, and the planet
(especially the oceans) takes time to respond to warming. So even if we stopped
emitting all greenhouse gases today, global warming and climate change will
continue to affect future generations. In this way, humanity is “committed” to
some level of climate change (NASA, 2013).
Geological studies have proved that warming and cooling of earth is a continuous
process. Current development is showing the unprecedented increase in
temperature so is too alarming for the whole world. Scientists are now in
agreement that human activities releasing GHGs into the atmosphere are
responsible for the already observed global warming causing climactic changes
(IPCC 2007). This increasing trend is supported by deforestation and increase on
investments in fossil‐fuel dependent infrastructure and industries.
The bigger sufferers of this will be mostly the ones who have done the least to
cause climate change i.e. poor nations and poor people since they don’t have
enough funds, skillful human resources and effective legislation neither to adapt
nor to mitigate global warming. Nepal is no exception to this reality. However, a
global effort is necessary to combat this widespread problem. During the survey
mixed opinion regarding mitigation effort on Global Warming was seen as
depicted by the pie chart below

29. 29
22%
15%
11%
52%
Responsibility to control global warming
INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY
FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
STATE
GOVERNMENT
ALL
Figure 7. Figure showing opinion of respondents on responsibility to control
effect of global warming in Nepal based on survey conducted among 240
respondents in Kathmandu in 2018
Responsibility Environmental
science
MBBS Geology Economics Political
Science
Strategic
Studies
International
community
20 5 7 1 1 20
Federal
Govt
13 10 6 3 1 3
State 4 4 12 1 1 4
All 3 21 15 35 37 13
Table 4. Table showing opinion of respondents on responsibility to control effect
of global warming in Nepal based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in
Kathmandu in 2018

30. 30
Looking at the result of survey done among 240 students, 22.5% of respondents
opined that international community is responsible to address the effect of global
warming, whereas 15% of respondents thought federal government of Nepal
responsible and 10.83% argued it to be the responsibility of different states and
local government. Finally huge chunk of respondents i.e. 51.66% opined that
controlling global warming needs combined international, national and local
effort.
Apart from survey, study has proved that combating against global warming
demands three pronged approaches namely mitigation, adaptation and legislation
as illustrated below
Figure 8. Picture showing combating global warming and climate change
Nepalese should be concerned about climate change since this phenomenon might
have substantial adverse impacts mainly on water resources and hydro power;
agriculture and human health which have direct bearing on national security. It
needs three pronged approach

31. 31
5.1 Adaptation.
Adapting to life in a changing climate which involves adjusting to actual or
expected future climate is adaptation. The goal is to reduce our vulnerability to
the harmful effects of climate change. Earth’s climate has been relatively stable
for the past 12,000 years and this stability has been crucial for the development of
our modern civilization and life as we know it. Modern life is tailored to the stable
climate we have become accustomed to. As our climate changes, we will have to
learn to adapt. The faster the climate changes, the harder it could be (NASA,
2014).
5.2 Legislation.
Developing different laws that discourages environmental degradation and is in
harmony with international convention is Legislation and this is provisioned in
domestic law as well. There are different international conventions held to curb
the effect of global warming. Nepal is a signatory of UNFCCC, Kyoto protocol,
green summit. Nepal is obliged to follow decision made by these conventions.
5.2.1 Different national efforts have already been taken in Nepal.
Nepal made several attempts to come up with a strong agenda for climate
conferences, but couldn’t make any substantial presence during such conferences
which has been the tragedy in GHG emission mitigation regime. So far different
national and international efforts has been taken place in Nepal namely
5.2.1.1 Climate Change Policy, 2011.
It addresses Vulnerability Assessment, Capacity Enhancement, Resource
Allocation, Mainstreaming in Planning Process and Social Mobilization
5.2.1.2 National Periodic Plan (2013/14-2015/16) It incorporates Information
dissemination, Integration in Development Programs and Capacity for Climate
Change Resilient.

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5.2.1.3 Climate Change Budget Code, 2012 has provisioned for Budget tracking
5.2.1.4 National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) which is estimated
with cost of US$ 350 million has been made to incorporate Country Vulnerability
Assessment Coping Strategy Development and Community Engagement
5.2.1.5 Local Adaption Plan for Action (LAPA) which envisages to commit
80% of estimated NAPA cost to be spent at the local level has planned to
Integrating climate change into local participatory planning process and
implementing adaptation actions
5.2.1.6 Rock from Everest. Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s gift ‘The
Rock From Everest’ to US President Obama was an attempt to assert symbolic
pressure to the head of the state of one of the greatest GHG emitters on Sep.
2009.
5.2.1.7 Cabinet meeting at Kalapatthar. It was done at the altitude of 17192 ft
(next to Everest base Camp) held on 4th
December 2009 gave a symbolic message
of impact of climate change on Himalayas just before the summit at Copenhagen.
5.3 Mitigation
Reducing emissions of and stabilizing the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere is mitigation. The goal of mitigation is to avoid
significant human interference with the climate system, and “stabilize greenhouse
gas levels in a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change so as to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). It is important to reduce the
effects of climate change by restraining activities that produce carbon and other
greenhouse gases and enhance carbon sinks as forestation, seeking for alternative
energy, introduction of better agricultural technologies i.e. , drought‐tolerant
crops that perform well with low external inputs. These measures all require
strong and vibrant policies and commitment to international treaties such as
facilitation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and carbon markets.

33. 33
5.3.1 Reducing Global warming. Since Nepal is vulnerable to effects
of global warming, following efforts are necessary to reduce its effect.
5.3.2 Alternative Energy Sources.
One important way to fight climate change is to use alternative sources of
renewable energy which will not release harmful emissions. Some of these
cleaner sources of renewable energy include wind energy, solar energy, water or
hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy. It will help in reducing global
warming and fight climate change. As of Feb 9, 2018, Bio gas plant has been
installed in 400,000 household across Nepal since it had started from
1975.According to Nepal Biogas Promotion Association (NBPA), an umbrella
body of biogas constructor, one biogas plant saves 3.3 tons of firewood every year
which is equal to two trees. In addition, the country is also earning Rs 1 billion
annually in carbon trading which primarily is contributed by the biogas sector. A
biogas plant saves 3 tons of carbon every year. Annually each plant earns $ 15 in
revenue through carbon trading. There is still possibility to construct additional
600,000 plants across the nation that can further reduce the country’s huge
dependence on imported fossil fuel. The Nepal government has been subsidizing
the cost for the construction of such plants (Post Report, Kathmandu, 2018) One
such plant has been established in Rupandehi and Nepal army has also installed
biogas in almost all the barracks based on the vision of CoAS.
5.3.3 Energy Saving. Education and awareness are key elements for
energy saving. Judicious use of energy and minimum use of it in necessity can
help a lot. Use of appliances like CFL bulbs, switching off our electrical
appliances when they are not in use is some examples.
5.3.4 Green Driving. Automobiles emit most of GHG to the environment.
The best strategy to reduce global warming is reducing use of automobiles. It can
be done with use of mass transportations, use of automobiles using clean energy,
and even like campaign of NA not using automobiles on Friday along with Go
Green Campaign based on CoAS vision.

34. 34
5.3.5 Reduce, Reuse and Recycle practices.
The culture of consumerism today encourages people to buy and throw. For each
item that we purchase and use, energy and resources are used in its manufacture,
packaging, transportation and retail, and ultimately its disposal. Adoption of a
lifestyle guided by the Reduce Reuse Recycle principle helps lot to reduce climate
change and its impact.
5.3.6 Reforestation. The cleanest and most efficient remover of CO2
from our atmosphere actually comes free. Deforestation greatly reduced the
earth’s ability to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Reforestation and
minimizing the use of wood product is key against effect of climate change.
A new international carbon trade mechanism, called ‘Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Degradation’ (REDD), has been proposed to curb global
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). Nepal’s community forestry can reap benefits by
participating in REDD, but it requires addressing a range of issues and challenges
to mitigate underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation, while
offering rewards to those contributing to enhance forest cover. Criteria for
monitoring and verifying forest carbon and governance mechanisms for sharing
benefit with the rightful owners of carbon, addressing leakages are some
examples of the impending issues which needs to be addressed judiciously (Dahal
& Kamal, 2009).

35. 35
Figure 9. Picture showing prospect of REDD benefit to Nepali forest users
Source: (Dahal & Kamal, 2009)
Table depicts that the perspects of incresing interest in the Neapli forest from the
international community which might be a game changer to the economic
development of Nepal. Study suggests that there is high potentiality for Nepal to
earn from carbon trading which helps Nepal not only to curb effect of global
warming but also to earn foreign currency as part of Kyoto protocal.
5.3.7 Organic farming.
Sustainable and organic agriculture helps to counteract climate change by
restoring soil organic matter content as well as reduce soil erosion and improve
soil physical structure. Organic farming also does not use chemical fertilizers that
release substantial NO2 and CH4 into the environment, and as such reduces
global warming, while at the same time maintaining crop yields. The mitigation
measures remains as follows
5.3.8 Green shopping.
One point on how to reduce climate change through green shopping tips is to buy
local products instead of those produced overseas. Transporting exotic fruits and

36. 36
vegetables from one destination to another requires a lot of energy, usually from
the burning of fossil fuel, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and
global warming. Moreover, in attempts to keep the fruits and vegetables fresh,
chemical pesticides and preservatives are used, which again contribute to toxins
and greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere.
5.3.9 Education.
Education without any objection is the strongest weapon to produce positive
result. Individual, group, organization and whole nation need to make educated
and aware on this matter. Imparting the issue in high school syllabus is necessary
to educate young generation. `

37. 37
CHAPTER VI
FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
6.1 Findings
Least developed and developing countries contribute less in global warming
however these countries suffer more from global warming due to lack of
advanced technology and capable manpower. With global warming national
security of FDRN is affected and it has even raised question on the existence of
Himalayas in Nepal. Findings of this research can be summarized as listed below
6.1.1 Global warming and climate change created as a result of global warming
will remain as global problem which needs international solidarity to mitigate
consequences created by it. It provides a common forum to strengthen global
partnership and build mutual trust. Shared environmental concerns can bring
people around the negotiating table.
6.1.2 A larger percentage of glaciers were noted to be retreating with highly
variable retreat rate in Himalayas of Nepal.
6.1.3 These retreat has created various risks on nature and human life of Nepal
and will be creating more problems in Nepal.
6.1.4 Global Warming is likely to impact on national security since it will be
hard to maintain food security, health security, social security, political security,
economic security, energy& natural resources security, human security,
environmental security with global warming.
6.1.5 To curb the effect of global warming it is necessary to adopt different
mitigation, adaptation and legislation measures. All the domestic laws should be
in harmony with international conventions that nation is a signatory of and has
ratified it. Apart from this awareness on the local population is the most.

38. 38
6.2 Conclusion
Global warming is a natural process that had taken place since time immemorial.
Global warming can be caused with natural process and human induced as well.
Climate change has occurred with global warming. Global warming has a direct
bearing on the national security. In order to mitigate effect of Global warming
prevention on emission of green house gases on domestic and industrial areas is
essential. Apart from this public awareness is very essential. Attempt to control
global warming needs to start from individual household. At the national level all
the three tier of government has equal responsibility to combat against global
warming. Developed countries also need to invest on ways to mitigate global
warming.
6.3 Recommendations
In order to reduce global warming GHG emission needs to be curbed which can
be done with the decrease in using fossil fuel. Alternative means of energy should
be explored which will decrease our dependency to foreign nation. This will
strengthen our economy which in turn will contribute for our national security.
With the reduction of GHG, our expenditure on national health will decrease and
establishment of environment friendly industries will create jobs which will
prevent brain drain and muscle drain.
Nepal as developing countries lack sufficient money, technology and knowledge
to cope with the effects of global warming. Since it is likely to impact national
security, national law needs to be very strict on fighting against global warming
and controlling GHE. All local, national and international effort can contribute to
make world a better place to live in. Greater preference needs to be given to use
clean energy in place of fossil fuels. Reforestation should be encouraged and
deforestation attempts should be make illegal. Public awareness needs to be
increased by incorporating global warming, climate change in academic
curriculum.
Government needs to give more preference in REDD and encourage for the
establishment of more biogas plants which will help for environment protection
and assist in carbon trading.

39. 39
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APPENDIX ‘A’
SURVEY QUESTIONERS
(I am Bishwonath Timilsina, a student of political science from Tribhuvan
University. This questionnaire has been prepared for the preparation of thesis on
the topic" Global Warming, Its Impact On Federal Democratic Republic Of
Nepal And Mitigation Measures" as a part of the partial fulfillment on masters
degree in Political Science. For your personnel security your personnel data will
not be mentioned in the paper.)
1. What is the cause of Global warming?
a. Carbon dioxide
b. Methane
c. Carbon Monoxide
d. All of above
2. Who do you think is the main cause of global warming ?
a. Human Being
b. Nature
3. Do you think Global warming have any impact on national security of
Nepal?
a. Yes
b. No
4. Who do you think is most responsibel to control global warming in
Nepal?
a. International community
b. Federal Government
c. State Government
d. All the people

45. 45
APPENDIX ‘B’
INTERVIEW QUESTIONERS
1. What is your understanding on global warming?
2. What are the causes of global warming with special reference to Nepal?
3. What are the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal?
4. What are the means to control effect of global warming?
5. Whom do you think is the most responsible body of the state to control global
Warming and why?