Russian foreign policy Opportunity n Challenges

1. Russian Foreign Policy: drivers
and perspectives
SDU, 6 February 2015
Ambassador Thomas Winkler, Moscow

2.  Introduction
 Russian foreign policy: the drivers and issues
 The links:
 The current economic situation
 The internal political situation: consequences and
scenarios
 Foreign policy perspectives
 Conclusions and Q&A
Agenda

3. THE DRIVERS
 The political interests of Russia:
 Security, paranoia and empire building - OLD
 Economic development - NEW
 Regime-change , flower revolutions and ”no interference in
internal affairs” – OLD AND NEW
 The bi-polar world view with Russia as a global player - OLD
 Respect…….- OLD
 Ideology: Own values v. international values – OLD AND NEW
Russian Foreign Policy: the drivers
and the issues

4.  The need for an external enemy in time of crisis – SO OLD
 The state media campaign, fighting for Russians everywhere - OLD AND
NEW
 Consistency and upgrading
 Population convinced about ”the external enemy”
 High level of endurance and patience
 No changes in policy in ”near-abroad” or?
 A partner globally in some areas,
 An adversary globally in other areas
 ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NUANCES – NOT ONE RUSSIAN POLICY THAT FITS
ALL SITUATIONS

5. THE ISSUES
 Crimea
 Ukraine – and the Russian purposes
 MEPP, Iran, disarmament, counter-terrorism, ISIL
 Syria,
 Human Rights
 Denmark – Russia, including the Arctic
BUT……

6.  Falling oilprices in an economy based on exporting raw
materials – the ”curse” of the Russian economy
 A very weak rouble, capital flight
 Sanctions and need for refinancing of debt
 Own ”sanctions
 Rising inflation, stop for investments
 Deepening financial crisis around the corner?
 Closures, unemployment – unrest?
 Challeging the budget and the reserves
 Choise: centralisation or reforms?
The current economic situation

7.  Unrest?
 From the middle class?
 From others?
 Locally?
 Putin clear 18.12.: social promises stand, no (futher)
centralisation, no currency control, more economic freedom
 But: does he mean it – and what does ”the others” say?
 Internal politics
The internal political consequenses

8.  Alternatives:
 Internally in the government – more realism, defense expenses
 More positive development – or too late?
 Or a new 1964?
 centralisation, currency control, more negative development
 The answer?
 The internal power struggle: – hard externally, reforms internally?
 Sanctions – internal og eksternal – per summer 2015: more, less or none?

9.  SE Ukraine – stabilisation, escalation or more muddling
through?
 Crimea – not up for discussion
 Relationship to the EU:
 More classical bilateralisation – the weaker links
 Relationship with Denmark – the history and the balances
 Relationship with the USA – no improvements in sight
 ”Turning East” – reality or illusion?
 Euroasiatic Economic – same – and our new ”friends”
Foreign Policy Consequences

10.  Decisive factors
 Internal politics, economy
 The endurance of the Russian population
 Will other states stand up?
 Ukraine in five years?
 Pick and choose
 Russia in 2040? The importance of P2P
Conclusion