In 2019, key electoral events including the European Parliament elections and regional council elections will take place across Italy, with voting scheduled for May 23-26 for Europe and varying dates for regions. Major political forces include the centre-right coalition, led by the League, and the centre-left Democratic Party, while the 5-Star Movement aims for its first regional government. With shifting voter preferences and significant candidacies emerging, the elections are seen as pivotal for the future political landscape in Italy.

1. THE UPCOMING
(ELECTORAL) YEAR
Municipalities, Regions and
the European Parliament
at the polls in 2019
January 2019

2. Not Just the European Elections
Administrative elections will also be held in a good 6 Regions and around 4000 Municipalities.
This is the first, true electoral test of the new political season ushered in with the elections last
March: a moment in time that seems destined to change our country’s political landscape.

3. 1. The European Elections

4. C
As set forth by the Council
of the European Union,
elections will be held
throughout all the Member
States from Thursday, 23
May to Sunday, 26 May.
Counting will begin at
the same time
throughout all EU
Member States starting
from 11 p.m. on 26 May.
27 nations have been
called to the polls.
For the first time, Great
Britain will not be taking
part (maybe!).
In Italy voting will
take place on
Sunday, 26 May.
WHO AND WHEN

5. Proportional with a 4%
threshold.
TYpe
THE electoral districts
The Electoral System
In Italy there are five electoral districts:
1.Northwest Italy (Valle D’Aosta, the Piedmont, Liguria and Lombardy);
2.Northeast Italy (Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia
and Emilia Romagna);
3.Central Italy (Tuscany, Umbria, Marche and Lazio);
4.Southern Italy (Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Puglia, Basilicata and
Calabria);
5.Italian islands (Sicily and Sardinia).
It is possible to vote for a single
party/coalition and express up
to three candidates (of different
genders).
POLLING

6. So far, the candidates indicated are:
• Manfred Weber, Germany, European People’s Party;
• Ska Keller, Germany, European Greens;
• Frans Timmermans, Netherlands, Progressive Alliance of Socialists
and Democrats;
• Jan Zahradil, Czech Republic, European Conservatives and Reformists.
The European Commission Candidates
A vote will be held to elect
the new European Parliament,
which will then elect – on
the proposal of the European
Council – the President of
the European Commission.
Since 2014, it has been customary
for the main European parties,
before the elections, to indicate
the name of their candidate who
would head up the Commission,
the so-called Spitzenkandidat.

7. The Background
These are the first elections to be held after Great Britain’s exit (maybe!) from the European Union.
Throughout the continent, the parties and governments belonging to the traditional European political
families – christian-democrat and socialist – have been experiencing a period of deep crisis of
consensus, while there has been a sharp rise in sovereignist-inspired political forces which are vying
hard for the EU Institutions.

8. The State of Affairs in Italy
According to surveys, Italian voter preferences are mostly oriented towards the current Italian government forces:
5-Star Movement
25,4%
Democratic Party
17,3%
ForzaItalia
7,1%
3,4%
Fratelli d’Italia
LEGA
35,8%
+Europa
3,5%
Democratic and Progressive Movement
the Italian Left + other left-wing parties
6,2%
Survey by IPSOS for Il Corriere della Sera on 19 January 2019

9. 2. The Regions

10. WHERE AND WHEN
A vote will be held to elect the new members of the Regional Councils and the presidents of
Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Piedmont and Sardinia.
Piedmont will be voting at the same time as the European Elections on 26 May, whereas Emilia
Romagna and Calabria will wait until the autumn.
Abruzzo and Sardinia will be the first to go to the polls, voting on 10 and 24 February
respectively, followed by Basilicata, where voting will take place in the second half of March.

11. C
All six Regions are led by presidents from the Democratic party,
of whom only two, Sergio Chiamparino from Piedmont and
Stefano Bonaccini from Emilia Romagna, have announced
their plans to run again.
It seems equally certain that the presidents of Abruzzo and
Sardinia will not run for a second term, whereas the outgoing
presidents of Calabria and Basilicata – due to recent court
cases – may withdraw their previously announced candidacy.
The Overall Picture

12. The Political Offering
On opposing fronts in the national
Parliament, the Lega, Forza Italia
and Fratelli d’Italia will go into
the elections as a coalition to
back municipal candidates in all
the Regions.
CENTRE-RIGHT
The Democratic Party is going
to attempt to relaunch by promoting
broad coalitions open to left-wing
political groups and civic movements.
CENTRE-LEFT
It’s going to be a solo run for 5-Star,
which after reaching the national
government aims to take the first
Regional Government in its history.
THE 5-STAR MOVEMENT

13. Electoral Systems
In Abruzzo, Basilicata, Sardinia and Emilia
Romagna the coalition with the winning candidate
gets a majority bonus.
In Piedmont and Calabria there is the so-called
“closed list” system: four fifths of the seats on the
Regional Council are divided up proportionally
among the lists, while the remaining fifth is assigned
to the closed list of the winner.
Electoral systems vary from Region to Region,
although they share some common features:
• the presidents of the Regional Government and
the Regional Councils are elected during the same
round of voting by direct, universal suffrage;
• a proportional system with a majority bonus: the
candidate who gets the most votes is elected
president of the Regional Government.
They all have thresholds and electors can cast one or
two preference votes (the latter option bringing the
obligation of choosing candidates of each gender).

14. REGION BY REGION

15. ABRUZZO
President Francesco Pigliaru has decided not to run again.
The future President of Sardinia will be either:
• Francesco Desogus, a civil servant backed by
the 5-Star Movement;
• Christian Solinas, secretary of the Sardinian Action
Party and Senator elected from the Lega’s list, is the
centre-right candidate;
• Massimo Zedda, Mayor of Cagliari and the candidate
for the centre-left.
Outgoing President Luciano D’Alfonso was elected
senator last March.
The contenders for President of the Region are:
• Giovanni Legnini, former President of the Superior
Council of the Judiciary, backed by the centre-left;
• Sara Marcozzi, Regional Councillor and candidate
for the 5-Star Movement;
• Marco Marsilio, Senator for Fratelli d’Italia, backed
by Forza Italia and the Lega.
SARDINIA

16. BASILICATA
Voting will be held at the same time as the European
Elections and the following candidates will be competing
for the Presidency:
• Sergio Chiamparino, Democratic Party, former Mayor
of Turin and incumbent President;
• Giorgio Bertola, 5-Star Movement, Regional Councillor;
• Alberto Cirio, Forza Italia, Member of the European
Parliament.
Outgoing President Marcello Pittella cannot run again for
an ongoing court case.
The 5-Star Movement is the only one who has announced
its candidate: Antonio Mattia.
As for the centre-right, based on agreements between
the three leaders Salvini, Berlusconi and Meloni, the
candidate in Basilicata will come from Forza Italia, whereas
the centre-left – the Democratic Party, the Italian Socialist
Party, the Greens and +Europa – are planning to choose
their candidate during the primaries set for 10 February.
PIEDMONT

17. CALABRIA
So far, the incumbent President Stefano Bonaccini
(centre-left) is the only one who has officially announced
his candidacy.
Based on coalition agreements, the centre-right will
be going to the elections with a candidate from the Lega,
whereas the 5-Star Movement is planning to decide
who their candidate will be through members-only
online primaries.
Voting will be held in November (the date has yet
to be set).
President Mario Oliverio has announced his intention
to run again with the centre-left, but due to a recent
court case his coalition may call for electoral primaries
to choose a new candidate.
The centre-right has officially announced the candidacy
of the Mayor of Cosenza, Mario Occhiuto, a Forza
Italia politician.
The 5-Star Movement still hasn’t chosen its candidate.
EMILIA ROMAGNA

18. The first choice: the centre-right, which thanks mainly to the growth of the Lega, is
ahead in all the Regions.
The main contender: the 5-Star Movement, which according to the polls is doing very
well in the central-south Regions, close behind the centre-right.
Third: the centre-left, which however appears to be lagging behind everywhere, with
the exception of the Piedmont, where it seems able to compete against the centre-right,
aided also by the weakness of the local 5-Star Movement.
But this electoral campaign could tip the scales: everything is still up in the air.
Forecast*
*Based on the results of the political elections of 4 March 2018 and taking into account national political surveys

19. 3. Administrative Elections

20. WHO GOES TO THE POLLS
Overall, the elections will usher in 3836 new municipal administrations.
6 Regional capitals: Florence, Bari, Perugia, Pescara, Potenza and Campobasso.
22 provincial capitals: Ascoli Piceno, Avellino, Bergamo, Biella, Caltanissetta, Cesena, Cremona,
Ferrara, Foggia, Forlì, Livorno, Modena, Pavia, Pesaro, Prato, Reggio Calabria, Reggio Emilia, Sassari,
Urbino, Verbania and Vercelli.
Other politically significant cities will also be going to the polls, such as Foligno and Empoli.

21. Each elector can cast:
• one vote for a candidate for mayor;
• one vote for a list of candidates for municipal councillor;
• no more than two preferential votes for councillor
candidates of different genders (belonging to the same list).
Each candidate for mayor is associated with a list or
coalition of lists. In Municipalities with a population of
over 15,000, if no one gets 50% + 1 of the valid votes, a
runoff election is held between the two candidates with
the most votes.
and howThe date must be set for between 15 April and 15 June:
the elections will probably be set on the same date as
those of the European Parliament on 26 May (as
happened 5 years ago).
In Municipalities with a population of over 15,000, the
runoff election, if required, would be held 15 days later
on 9 June.
When people vote…

22. C
Of the 28 municipal capitals that will be voting, 20 have
centre-left administrations, 6 have centre-right administrations
and 1 is under the 5-Star Movement. However, the 28th,
Avellino, has been put into receivership.
The mayors of Ascoli Piceno, Cesena and Ferrara will be
concluding their second term, whereas in all the other
Municipalities the outgoing mayors are on their first term, and
the majority of them have already announced their candidacy.
The Overall Picture

23. Of those who definitely won’t attempt re-election, there are
two mayors from the Democratic Party:
• the Mayor of Sassari, Nicola Sanna, who will attempt to win
a seat on the Regional Council;
• the Mayor of Forlì, Davide Drei, who has announced that he
doesn’t want to attempt re-election due to rifts within his party.
The Mayor of Livorno Filippo Nogarìn (5-Star Movement)
and the Mayor of Potenza Dario De Luca (Fratelli d’Italia) are
still uncertain.
Maybe, or maybe not

24. Each Municipality has its own story, its own
community, distinctive characteristics and prominent
individual personalities: the number of civic lists that
each mayoral candidate will draw up to back him or
her is endless, in the hope of gaining consensus from
the various social groups within the civic community.
The Municipalities
The political choices, however, will be basically the same,
and in every city.
Like in the Regions, there will be three coalitions competing
to make it to the (likely) runoff elections: the centre-left, the
centre-right and the 5-Star Movement.

25. C
Who have announced their candidacy are:
• Florence: Dario Nardella (Democratic Party)
• Perugia: Andrea Romizi (Forza Italia)
• Bari: Antonio Decaro (Democratic Party)
• Pescara: Marco Alessandrini (Democratic Party)
• Campobasso: Antonio Battista (Democratic Party)
Giorgio Gori (Democratic Party) in Bergamo, Brenda Barnini
(Democratic Party) in Empoli and Giuseppe Falcomatà
(Democratic Party) in Reggio Calabria will also be running for
a second term.
However, the names of their contenders have yet to be chosen.
The outgoing mayors

26. The 73% of outgoing mayors were re-elected in 2009, this percentage
dropped to 44%* in 2018.
In other words, if once it was highly likely mayors running for a second term to
be re-elected by their citizens, today things look far more complicated: fewer
than half of the outgoing mayors succeed in getting re-elected.
Will they be re-elected?
*Data from QUORUM/Youtrend: https://www.youtrend.it/2018/09/26/verso-elezioni-comunali-2019-sindaci-uscenti-tasso-riconferma/

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