THE NEW CICLE OF THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS. MAY-NOVEMBER 2019 telosaes
More than 350 million people will be able to vote between 23 and 26 May to elect the new European Parliament (EP), the only institution directly elected by the citizens of the European Union. What’s at stake? What happens with Brexit?
3. Ketä voit äänestää kuntavaaleissa?
Who to vote for in the municipal elections?
You can only vote for a candidate standing for election in your municipality of residence.
By voting for a candidate, your vote also goes to a political party or a constituency association.
Vote for the candidate and party that advocate for matters important to you in your municipality of residence.
Use a vote compass and attend election panels online.
THE NEW CICLE OF THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS. MAY-NOVEMBER 2019 telosaes
More than 350 million people will be able to vote between 23 and 26 May to elect the new European Parliament (EP), the only institution directly elected by the citizens of the European Union. What’s at stake? What happens with Brexit?
3. Ketä voit äänestää kuntavaaleissa?
Who to vote for in the municipal elections?
You can only vote for a candidate standing for election in your municipality of residence.
By voting for a candidate, your vote also goes to a political party or a constituency association.
Vote for the candidate and party that advocate for matters important to you in your municipality of residence.
Use a vote compass and attend election panels online.
Brazilian Politics: Between Chaos and Stagnationfhguarnieri
Some people view Brazilian politics as chaotic, others as stagnated. In this work, presented at the Wilson Center Brazil Institute, I show that pre-electoral coordination helps to solve this apparent contradiction.
Electoral systems: Impacts on stability and inclusiveness of democratic insti...IAGorgph
Options on electoral systems for the Bangsamoro: Basic forms and impact on inclusiveness and stability of the democratic institutions in a ministerial form of government
UK General Election Scenario Analysis: Impact on Policy, Theresa May and Ster...Olivier Desbarres
In less than 24 hours the British electorate will start voting in the election for the 650-seat House of Commons with the result expected early in the morning of Friday 9th June.
While the last general election was only held two years ago, there is arguably as much if not more at stake this time round than in May 2015.
Opinion polls still point to the ruling Conservatives winning a record-high 44% of the national vote ahead of the opposition Labour Party, but polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions still display great inconsistency.
Ultimately it is the number of seats which British parties command which matters and the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to predict.
You Gov’s constituency-specific model forecasts the Conservatives winning only 304 seats as a result of a record number of “wasted” votes, a 26-seat loss and well short of both a working and absolute majority. Labour would increase its seat numbers from 229 to 266.
This would result in a hung parliament and either a coalition or minority government.
My own model points to the Conservatives winning around 360 seats (55.4% of total) and Labour 212 seats. Admittedly, this prediction is based on a number of assumptions, namely the net share of votes which Conservatives gain from other parties as well as voter turnout.
Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority remains a tough call and there is an almost infinite number of possible outcomes.
However, I have narrowed down in Figure 10 the number of seats the Conservatives could win to eight possible scenarios, in each case assessing i) Their probability; ii) Their numerical impact on the Conservatives’ majority (or lack thereof); and iii) The risk of opposition parties and/or Conservative backbenchers high-jacking the policy agenda.
Figure 11 assesses for each of the eight scenarios their likely impact on iv) Theresa May’s standing within the Conservative Party and v) Sterling and currency volatility.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, two events beyond British shores also scheduled for 8th June – the ECB’s policy meeting and Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee – will conceivably exacerbate Sterling volatility.
2014: A year of change for the European UnionBrunswick Group
The European Parliament elections will take place in May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission, setting the tone and direction of EU policy-making for the next five years. Our Brussels office provides insight into the procedural aspects of the European Parliament elections and how the next Commission will be appointed.
THE 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE ELECTIONS. THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE NEXT ROUND O...telosaes
In spring 2020 (between April and June) elections were supposed to have been held in 6 out of 15 of Italy’s Regions under Ordinary Statut and in more than one thousand other Municipalities. And then, there was Covid: on 20 April the Council of Ministers approves Decree-Law no. 26/2020 which, in light of the Covid-19 emergency, postpones elections for city and district councils. The elections will be held on 20 and 21 September 2020, as established by the Minister of Interior.
For Draghi, gender quotas are not the right instrument to close the gender gap. So, how do you ensure women have equal representation in both politics and in the labour market?
Brazilian Politics: Between Chaos and Stagnationfhguarnieri
Some people view Brazilian politics as chaotic, others as stagnated. In this work, presented at the Wilson Center Brazil Institute, I show that pre-electoral coordination helps to solve this apparent contradiction.
Electoral systems: Impacts on stability and inclusiveness of democratic insti...IAGorgph
Options on electoral systems for the Bangsamoro: Basic forms and impact on inclusiveness and stability of the democratic institutions in a ministerial form of government
UK General Election Scenario Analysis: Impact on Policy, Theresa May and Ster...Olivier Desbarres
In less than 24 hours the British electorate will start voting in the election for the 650-seat House of Commons with the result expected early in the morning of Friday 9th June.
While the last general election was only held two years ago, there is arguably as much if not more at stake this time round than in May 2015.
Opinion polls still point to the ruling Conservatives winning a record-high 44% of the national vote ahead of the opposition Labour Party, but polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions still display great inconsistency.
Ultimately it is the number of seats which British parties command which matters and the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to predict.
You Gov’s constituency-specific model forecasts the Conservatives winning only 304 seats as a result of a record number of “wasted” votes, a 26-seat loss and well short of both a working and absolute majority. Labour would increase its seat numbers from 229 to 266.
This would result in a hung parliament and either a coalition or minority government.
My own model points to the Conservatives winning around 360 seats (55.4% of total) and Labour 212 seats. Admittedly, this prediction is based on a number of assumptions, namely the net share of votes which Conservatives gain from other parties as well as voter turnout.
Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority remains a tough call and there is an almost infinite number of possible outcomes.
However, I have narrowed down in Figure 10 the number of seats the Conservatives could win to eight possible scenarios, in each case assessing i) Their probability; ii) Their numerical impact on the Conservatives’ majority (or lack thereof); and iii) The risk of opposition parties and/or Conservative backbenchers high-jacking the policy agenda.
Figure 11 assesses for each of the eight scenarios their likely impact on iv) Theresa May’s standing within the Conservative Party and v) Sterling and currency volatility.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, two events beyond British shores also scheduled for 8th June – the ECB’s policy meeting and Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee – will conceivably exacerbate Sterling volatility.
2014: A year of change for the European UnionBrunswick Group
The European Parliament elections will take place in May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission, setting the tone and direction of EU policy-making for the next five years. Our Brussels office provides insight into the procedural aspects of the European Parliament elections and how the next Commission will be appointed.
THE 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE ELECTIONS. THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE NEXT ROUND O...telosaes
In spring 2020 (between April and June) elections were supposed to have been held in 6 out of 15 of Italy’s Regions under Ordinary Statut and in more than one thousand other Municipalities. And then, there was Covid: on 20 April the Council of Ministers approves Decree-Law no. 26/2020 which, in light of the Covid-19 emergency, postpones elections for city and district councils. The elections will be held on 20 and 21 September 2020, as established by the Minister of Interior.
For Draghi, gender quotas are not the right instrument to close the gender gap. So, how do you ensure women have equal representation in both politics and in the labour market?
La aseguradora Coface a través de su publicación "Panorama" nos hace un análisis del riesgo político en Europa y de las consecuencias que puede conllevar.
Olivier Desbarres - UK Election Special – When Two Tribes Go To WarOlivier Desbarres
British voters will on Thursday 8th June vote on the composition of the 650-seat House of Commons – the third major popular vote in two years – after Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision back in April to trigger early general elections.
Theresa May’s motivations were arguably four-fold: (1) Win a popular rather than party mandate, (2) Capitalise on the massive lead in the polls the ruling Conservatives enjoyed over the opposition Labour Party and thus allow her to push through her own agenda, including a possibly softer form of Brexit, (3) Allow the government more time to secure a new EU trade deal, and (4) Strengthen the government’s stance in negotiations with the EU.
Objectives (1) and (3) will likely be met but objectives (2) and (4) may prove more elusive.
Opinion polls point to a trend-fall in popular support for the Conservatives to around 44% and sharp rise for Labour to 35%, with the gap between the two main parties halving to about 9pp from 20pp six weeks ago. Aggregate support for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, SNP and Green Party is flat-lining around 18%.
However, there is still great discrepancy amongst polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions. Moreover the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to translate share of votes into seats numbers. Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority, as You Gov currently predicts, is a tough call.
Nevertheless, a number of important themes have emerged in recent months.
First, the slingshot campaign has exposed the frailty and flaws of the Conservative machine, including of its leader and manifesto, and reinforced my view, first set out in December, that the government is ill-equipped, ill-prepared and lacking in institutional capacity to negotiate complex deals with the EU and non-EU partners.
Second, it is a two-horse race between the ruling Conservatives and Labour, with the other parties on course to secure only a modest number of seats – a break with recent elections.
Finally, the political centre of gravity has shifted to the left, with in particular tax rates likely to rise regardless of which party wins next week’s election.
My core scenario is a hollow victory for the Conservatives: 360-370 seats with a low voter turnout. This would reduce the risk of opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs torpedoing government legislation but would fall short of the landslide victory which Conservatives thought possible back in April.
Finally, a modest (or even significant) increase in the Conservative’s parliamentary majority is unlikely to materially improve the government’s hand when negotiating with the EU.
2017 FRENCH ELECTIONS – THEY THINK IT’S ALL OVER…IT ISN’TOlivier Desbarres
Emmanuel Macron, the centrist founder of the En Marche! movement beat National Front candidate Marine Le Pen by two votes to one in the second and final round of the French presidential elections on 7th May, in line with my core scenario.
But for President-elect Macron (and arguably the other main party leaders), the hard work starts now. Macron is expected to appoint next week his Prime Minister and there has been much speculation.
I would expect Macron to pick a head of government and approve cabinet ministers who will not polarise political opinion. The appointment of a “rainbow government” would likely help his party – recently renamed “La République En Marche” – secure the largest number of deputies at the forthcoming legislative elections on 11th and 18th June.
If his party succeeds as opinion polls suggest – no means feat for a party which is only a year old and currently has no parliamentary deputies – this would in turn help reinforce Macron’s position and his choice of Prime Minister.
However, polls suggest that La République En Marche may fail to secure a majority of the 577 seats in the National Assembly.
If the party falls well short of that number, it would likely seek a loose coalition with either the Republican Party or less likely with the beleaguered Socialist Party, in my view.
The National Front is likely to cement its position in French politics but it will need to reform itself and I would expect personnel changes and policy tweaks.
Marine Le Pen fell well short of securing the presidency and this should have come as no great surprise as nationalist parties in other EU member states have also come up short.
This is in line with my view that while nationalist/populist parties may have greater influence on the political landscape they will in most cases fail to exercise true power, let alone dismantle the eurozone and/or EU.
Finally, opinion polls which predicted with great accuracy the second and in particular first round of the presidential elections, are back in favour – at least in France.
The first round of the French Presidential elections is due to be held in 25 days (on 23rd April), with the likely second round two weeks later on 7th May. In many ways this is proving to be a unique election campaign but the centre-left Emmanuel Macron still comfortably leads National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in second round polls.
This in-depth four-part Election Series examines all core elements of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections and takes a quantitative and qualitative approach. In Part II, I tackle seven questions, looking at past presidential elections where appropriate:
Q1: Who are the presidential candidates?
Eleven candidates, spanning the breadth of the political spectrum, will officially contest the first round in a bid to capture the 46 million or so votes up for grabs. However, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen remain comfortably ahead in the polls on around 25%.
Q2: What are their relative strengths and weaknesses?
The recent televised debate between the top five candidates was high calibre, in my view, and the front-runners have in recent months shown clear strengths…but also weaknesses.
Q3: What are the odds of a candidate winning an absolute majority in the first round?
No candidate has ever obtained more than 50% of the popular vote in the first round. This time looks no different and a second round is a near certainty based on latest polls.
Q4: Does the number of sponsors have a bearing on first round results?
The relationship is tenuous but does suggest that Le Pen will fail to win the presidency.
Q5: Does the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?
The large number of candidates points to the winner and runner-up of the first round winning only just over half of the votes, broadly in line with recent opinion polls.
Q6: Does the first round result have a bearing on the outcome of the second round?
Precedent suggests that a small margin of victory in the first round makes the second round outcome harder to predict. This year’s election could prove a break with the past.
Q7: Does it matter who came third or fourth in the first round?
It has on a few occasions but assuming that Fillon comes third and the left-wing candidates fourth and fifth, polls point to a convincing Macron win versus le Pen in the second round.
Learn about the latest policy developments with this monthly alert from our team in Brussels.
For real-time updates, follow us on Twitter: @MSL_Brussels
Why do italian politicians make little use of statistics?Dino Amenduni
Lack of database culture, anti-politics, obsolete legislation:
the love story that never was
by Dino Amenduni
Personal Democracy Forum Italia
Data-driven campaigns in Europe: what went wrong after Obama? Rome, 29 September 2014
Olivier Desbarres - The Ultimate Guide to the 2017 French Elections – Part IOlivier Desbarres
The first round of the French Presidential elections is due to be held in 47 days, with the likely second round two weeks later. There has already been much drama in a presidential campaign that has caught the world’s imagination.
The two-round election for the 577 deputies of the lower house of parliament on 11 and 17 June, which has so far received little attention, will complete the political picture in France.
There are currently eighteen presidential candidates spanning the breadth of the political spectrum, from the far-left to the far-right. Political jostling is in full swing with candidates forming alliances in a bid to capture the 46 million or so votes up for grabs in round one.
The National Front’s Marine Le Pen, currently ahead in the polls for the first round on around 27%, is looking to go one step further than her father Jean-Marie Le Pen and become the first ever French female president. She is currently under investigation for misappropriation of EU funds and publication of violent images.
The centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron, aged 39, is second in the polls on around 25%. He is vying to become the first centrist president since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1974, the first independent candidate to become France’s head of state and the youngest ever President under the Fifth Republic.
Republican candidate François Fillon, who comfortably won the party primaries, is third in the polls on around 20% despite the probability that he will face formal charges on 15th March of misappropriation of parliamentary funds.
President de Gaulle, in a nod to the heterogeneity of the French electorate, famously asked how it was possible to govern a country where 258 varieties of cheese exist[1]. This granular political landscape makes it that much harder to predict with any certainty the successor to incumbent President François Hollande who has opted not to run for a second term.
This in-depth four-part Election Series will examine all core elements of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections and take both a quantitative and qualitative approach.
The material, organised in easy-to-access questions and answers, will ultimately try to answer the key question of who will be President and Prime Minister and how this will impact France, Europe and financial markets. The British decision to leave the EU and US presidential elections have fuelled the notion that anything is possible.
In Part I, I examine the importance of French presidential and legislative elections, their mechanics and timelines and the implications of a potentially high voter turnout.
Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
On 25 September 2022 Italians voted for a new Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The centre-right coalition won with an absolute majority in both Houses.This is the first time in Italian history that a woman has been the Head of the Government.
Il 25 settembre 2022 si sono svolte le elezioni per il rinnovo della Camera dei Deputati e del Senato della Repubblica. Ha vinto la coalizione di centro-destra, che ha raggiunto la maggioranza assoluta in entrambe le Camere. È la prima volta nella storia d’Italia che una donna è a capo del Governo.
27 July 2022 the Senate Assembly passed a reform of its Rules with 210 votes in favour, 11 against and 2 abstained votes. There will be only 200 Senators in the 19th Legislature, instead of 315, and in the Chamber, 400 Deputies rather than 630.
Il 27 luglio 2022 l’Assemblea del Senato ha approvato, con 210 voti favorevoli, 11 contrari e 2 astensioni, la riforma del proprio Regolamento. I Senatori della XIX legislatura saranno 200, invece di 315, mentre il numero dei Deputati passa da 630 a 400.
Non esiste una definizione giuridica. Secondo il Regolamento della Camera (art. 14) sono “associazioni di Deputati” e “soggetti necessari al funzionamento della Camera”.
Secondo la dottrina sono la proiezione, il riflesso, dei partiti nel Parlamento. Svolgono però un ruolo ben preciso, perché sono un elemento imprescindibile al funzionamento delle Camere.
Parliamentary groups have no legal definition. According to Rule 14 of the Rules of Procedure of the Chamber of Deputies, they are ‘associations of Deputies’ and ‘subjects required for the functioning of the Chamber.’
According to the doctrine, they are the projection, the reflection of the parties
in Parliament.
LEGGE ANNUALE PER IL MERCATO E LA CONCORRENZA Telosaes telosaes
La Legge annuale per il mercato e la concorrenza è stabilita dalla Legge 23 luglio 2009, n. 99. Dovrebbe avere cadenza annuale, ma fino ad oggi ne è stata approvata solo una. Perché? Le ragioni sono tante, ma la prima è la difficoltà di un accordo politico sui settori economici, su quali intervenire e su come farlo.
The annual market and competition law is set forth in Law 23 July 2009, no. 99. Although the Competition Bill is supposed to be tabled annually, only one Competition Law has been passed to date. Why is this? The reasons are many; however, the first is the challenge of agreeing politically on where and how to intervene.
LEGGE ANNUALE PER IL MERCATO E LA CONCORRENZA telosaes
La Legge annuale per il mercato e la concorrenza è stabilita dalla Legge 23 luglio 2009, n. 99. Dovrebbe avere cadenza annuale, ma fino ad oggi ne è stata approvata solo una. Perché? Le ragioni sono tante, ma la prima è la difficoltà di un accordo politico sui settori economici, su quali intervenire e su come farlo.
THE SEVERINO LAW WHAT IT SETS OUT, ACTUAL CASES, OPEN QUESTIONStelosaes
The so-called Severino Law (named after at-the-time Minister of Justice Paola Severino) introduces a comprehensive regime to fight corruption and foster transparency in the Italian Public Administration (PA). The Draft Bill was submitted in 2010by former Minister of Justice Angelino Alfano (IV Berlusconi Government). The Law was passed with a confidence vote by the government after a legislative procedure lasting two years.
LA LEGGE SEVERINO. COSA STABILISCE, CASI CONCRETI, QUESTIONI APERTEtelosaes
La Legge Severino introduce una disciplina organica per il contrasto della corruzione e la trasparenza della PA. Il Disegno di Legge fu proposto nel 2010, dall’allora Ministro della Giustizia, Angelino Alfano (Governo Berlusconi IV). La Legge è stata approvata con l’apposizione della questione di fiducia da parte del Governo, dopo un iter durato due anni.
The CONSOB (Commissione Nazionale per la Società e la Borsa is an Independent Administrative Authority that oversees the Italian financial markets in order to protect investors and ensure the market’s proper functioning.
La CONSOB è l’Autorità amministrativa indipendente che controlla il mercato finanziario italiano, per tutelare gli investitori e garantire il buon funzionamento del sistema finanziario
Cosa significa fare il lobbista? Cosa vuol dire occuparsi di public affairs? Dal dialogo interno e dalla collaborazione dei membri del Gruppo di Lavoro Public Affairs è nato un documento, redatto con grande cura e pazienza da AmCham, che riprendiamo e articoliamo qui.
What does it mean to be a lobbyist? What does it mean to work in public affairs? This internal dialogue and our collaboration with the members of the Public Affairs Work Group form the basis of a report which we quote and elaborate below.
The State General Accounting Department is the Institution that ensures the proper planning and rigorous management of public funds. It oversees state accounts. The State Accountant General, appointed by the government on the recommendation of the Minister of the Economy and Finance, is in charge of the Department. The organisational structure of the General Accounting Department is complex and connected to other institutions at both the central and local level. In 2019 the State General Accounting Department celebrated its 150 year anniversary.
È l’Istituzione che garantisce la programmazione corretta e la gestione rigorosa delle risorse pubbliche. è l’organo che controlla i conti dello Stato. È diretta da un Ragioniere Generale dello Stato. Ha un’articolazione complessa ed è integrata con le altre Istituzioni a livello centrale e sul territorio. Nel 2019 si sono svolti i festeggiamenti per la ricorrenza dei 150 anni dall'istituzione della Ragioneria.
La Corte dei Conti è un organo di rilievo costituzionale indipendente al quale la Costituzione affida importanti funzioni di controllo e giurisdizionali. Fu istituita nel 1862
The Court of Auditors is an institution of constitutional importance. As set forth in the Italian Constitution, it has key review and jurisdictional functions. It was established in 1862.
Secondo Draghi le quote rosa non sono lo strumento adatto a risolvere la disuguaglianza di genere. Ma allora, come garantire che le donne siano rappresentate tanto in politica quanto nel lavoro?
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
2. Not Just the European Elections
Administrative elections will also be held in a good 6 Regions and around 4000 Municipalities.
This is the first, true electoral test of the new political season ushered in with the elections last
March: a moment in time that seems destined to change our country’s political landscape.
4. C
As set forth by the Council
of the European Union,
elections will be held
throughout all the Member
States from Thursday, 23
May to Sunday, 26 May.
Counting will begin at
the same time
throughout all EU
Member States starting
from 11 p.m. on 26 May.
27 nations have been
called to the polls.
For the first time, Great
Britain will not be taking
part (maybe!).
In Italy voting will
take place on
Sunday, 26 May.
WHO AND WHEN
5. Proportional with a 4%
threshold.
TYpe
THE electoral districts
The Electoral System
In Italy there are five electoral districts:
1.Northwest Italy (Valle D’Aosta, the Piedmont, Liguria and Lombardy);
2.Northeast Italy (Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia
and Emilia Romagna);
3.Central Italy (Tuscany, Umbria, Marche and Lazio);
4.Southern Italy (Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Puglia, Basilicata and
Calabria);
5.Italian islands (Sicily and Sardinia).
It is possible to vote for a single
party/coalition and express up
to three candidates (of different
genders).
POLLING
6. So far, the candidates indicated are:
• Manfred Weber, Germany, European People’s Party;
• Ska Keller, Germany, European Greens;
• Frans Timmermans, Netherlands, Progressive Alliance of Socialists
and Democrats;
• Jan Zahradil, Czech Republic, European Conservatives and Reformists.
The European Commission Candidates
A vote will be held to elect
the new European Parliament,
which will then elect – on
the proposal of the European
Council – the President of
the European Commission.
Since 2014, it has been customary
for the main European parties,
before the elections, to indicate
the name of their candidate who
would head up the Commission,
the so-called Spitzenkandidat.
7. The Background
These are the first elections to be held after Great Britain’s exit (maybe!) from the European Union.
Throughout the continent, the parties and governments belonging to the traditional European political
families – christian-democrat and socialist – have been experiencing a period of deep crisis of
consensus, while there has been a sharp rise in sovereignist-inspired political forces which are vying
hard for the EU Institutions.
8. The State of Affairs in Italy
According to surveys, Italian voter preferences are mostly oriented towards the current Italian government forces:
5-Star Movement
25,4%
Democratic Party
17,3%
ForzaItalia
7,1%
3,4%
Fratelli d’Italia
LEGA
35,8%
+Europa
3,5%
Democratic and Progressive Movement
the Italian Left + other left-wing parties
6,2%
Survey by IPSOS for Il Corriere della Sera on 19 January 2019
10. WHERE AND WHEN
A vote will be held to elect the new members of the Regional Councils and the presidents of
Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Piedmont and Sardinia.
Piedmont will be voting at the same time as the European Elections on 26 May, whereas Emilia
Romagna and Calabria will wait until the autumn.
Abruzzo and Sardinia will be the first to go to the polls, voting on 10 and 24 February
respectively, followed by Basilicata, where voting will take place in the second half of March.
11. C
All six Regions are led by presidents from the Democratic party,
of whom only two, Sergio Chiamparino from Piedmont and
Stefano Bonaccini from Emilia Romagna, have announced
their plans to run again.
It seems equally certain that the presidents of Abruzzo and
Sardinia will not run for a second term, whereas the outgoing
presidents of Calabria and Basilicata – due to recent court
cases – may withdraw their previously announced candidacy.
The Overall Picture
12. The Political Offering
On opposing fronts in the national
Parliament, the Lega, Forza Italia
and Fratelli d’Italia will go into
the elections as a coalition to
back municipal candidates in all
the Regions.
CENTRE-RIGHT
The Democratic Party is going
to attempt to relaunch by promoting
broad coalitions open to left-wing
political groups and civic movements.
CENTRE-LEFT
It’s going to be a solo run for 5-Star,
which after reaching the national
government aims to take the first
Regional Government in its history.
THE 5-STAR MOVEMENT
13. Electoral Systems
In Abruzzo, Basilicata, Sardinia and Emilia
Romagna the coalition with the winning candidate
gets a majority bonus.
In Piedmont and Calabria there is the so-called
“closed list” system: four fifths of the seats on the
Regional Council are divided up proportionally
among the lists, while the remaining fifth is assigned
to the closed list of the winner.
Electoral systems vary from Region to Region,
although they share some common features:
• the presidents of the Regional Government and
the Regional Councils are elected during the same
round of voting by direct, universal suffrage;
• a proportional system with a majority bonus: the
candidate who gets the most votes is elected
president of the Regional Government.
They all have thresholds and electors can cast one or
two preference votes (the latter option bringing the
obligation of choosing candidates of each gender).
15. ABRUZZO
President Francesco Pigliaru has decided not to run again.
The future President of Sardinia will be either:
• Francesco Desogus, a civil servant backed by
the 5-Star Movement;
• Christian Solinas, secretary of the Sardinian Action
Party and Senator elected from the Lega’s list, is the
centre-right candidate;
• Massimo Zedda, Mayor of Cagliari and the candidate
for the centre-left.
Outgoing President Luciano D’Alfonso was elected
senator last March.
The contenders for President of the Region are:
• Giovanni Legnini, former President of the Superior
Council of the Judiciary, backed by the centre-left;
• Sara Marcozzi, Regional Councillor and candidate
for the 5-Star Movement;
• Marco Marsilio, Senator for Fratelli d’Italia, backed
by Forza Italia and the Lega.
SARDINIA
16. BASILICATA
Voting will be held at the same time as the European
Elections and the following candidates will be competing
for the Presidency:
• Sergio Chiamparino, Democratic Party, former Mayor
of Turin and incumbent President;
• Giorgio Bertola, 5-Star Movement, Regional Councillor;
• Alberto Cirio, Forza Italia, Member of the European
Parliament.
Outgoing President Marcello Pittella cannot run again for
an ongoing court case.
The 5-Star Movement is the only one who has announced
its candidate: Antonio Mattia.
As for the centre-right, based on agreements between
the three leaders Salvini, Berlusconi and Meloni, the
candidate in Basilicata will come from Forza Italia, whereas
the centre-left – the Democratic Party, the Italian Socialist
Party, the Greens and +Europa – are planning to choose
their candidate during the primaries set for 10 February.
PIEDMONT
17. CALABRIA
So far, the incumbent President Stefano Bonaccini
(centre-left) is the only one who has officially announced
his candidacy.
Based on coalition agreements, the centre-right will
be going to the elections with a candidate from the Lega,
whereas the 5-Star Movement is planning to decide
who their candidate will be through members-only
online primaries.
Voting will be held in November (the date has yet
to be set).
President Mario Oliverio has announced his intention
to run again with the centre-left, but due to a recent
court case his coalition may call for electoral primaries
to choose a new candidate.
The centre-right has officially announced the candidacy
of the Mayor of Cosenza, Mario Occhiuto, a Forza
Italia politician.
The 5-Star Movement still hasn’t chosen its candidate.
EMILIA ROMAGNA
18. The first choice: the centre-right, which thanks mainly to the growth of the Lega, is
ahead in all the Regions.
The main contender: the 5-Star Movement, which according to the polls is doing very
well in the central-south Regions, close behind the centre-right.
Third: the centre-left, which however appears to be lagging behind everywhere, with
the exception of the Piedmont, where it seems able to compete against the centre-right,
aided also by the weakness of the local 5-Star Movement.
But this electoral campaign could tip the scales: everything is still up in the air.
Forecast*
*Based on the results of the political elections of 4 March 2018 and taking into account national political surveys
20. WHO GOES TO THE POLLS
Overall, the elections will usher in 3836 new municipal administrations.
6 Regional capitals: Florence, Bari, Perugia, Pescara, Potenza and Campobasso.
22 provincial capitals: Ascoli Piceno, Avellino, Bergamo, Biella, Caltanissetta, Cesena, Cremona,
Ferrara, Foggia, Forlì, Livorno, Modena, Pavia, Pesaro, Prato, Reggio Calabria, Reggio Emilia, Sassari,
Urbino, Verbania and Vercelli.
Other politically significant cities will also be going to the polls, such as Foligno and Empoli.
21. Each elector can cast:
• one vote for a candidate for mayor;
• one vote for a list of candidates for municipal councillor;
• no more than two preferential votes for councillor
candidates of different genders (belonging to the same list).
Each candidate for mayor is associated with a list or
coalition of lists. In Municipalities with a population of
over 15,000, if no one gets 50% + 1 of the valid votes, a
runoff election is held between the two candidates with
the most votes.
and howThe date must be set for between 15 April and 15 June:
the elections will probably be set on the same date as
those of the European Parliament on 26 May (as
happened 5 years ago).
In Municipalities with a population of over 15,000, the
runoff election, if required, would be held 15 days later
on 9 June.
When people vote…
22. C
Of the 28 municipal capitals that will be voting, 20 have
centre-left administrations, 6 have centre-right administrations
and 1 is under the 5-Star Movement. However, the 28th,
Avellino, has been put into receivership.
The mayors of Ascoli Piceno, Cesena and Ferrara will be
concluding their second term, whereas in all the other
Municipalities the outgoing mayors are on their first term, and
the majority of them have already announced their candidacy.
The Overall Picture
23. Of those who definitely won’t attempt re-election, there are
two mayors from the Democratic Party:
• the Mayor of Sassari, Nicola Sanna, who will attempt to win
a seat on the Regional Council;
• the Mayor of Forlì, Davide Drei, who has announced that he
doesn’t want to attempt re-election due to rifts within his party.
The Mayor of Livorno Filippo Nogarìn (5-Star Movement)
and the Mayor of Potenza Dario De Luca (Fratelli d’Italia) are
still uncertain.
Maybe, or maybe not
24. Each Municipality has its own story, its own
community, distinctive characteristics and prominent
individual personalities: the number of civic lists that
each mayoral candidate will draw up to back him or
her is endless, in the hope of gaining consensus from
the various social groups within the civic community.
The Municipalities
The political choices, however, will be basically the same,
and in every city.
Like in the Regions, there will be three coalitions competing
to make it to the (likely) runoff elections: the centre-left, the
centre-right and the 5-Star Movement.
25. C
Who have announced their candidacy are:
• Florence: Dario Nardella (Democratic Party)
• Perugia: Andrea Romizi (Forza Italia)
• Bari: Antonio Decaro (Democratic Party)
• Pescara: Marco Alessandrini (Democratic Party)
• Campobasso: Antonio Battista (Democratic Party)
Giorgio Gori (Democratic Party) in Bergamo, Brenda Barnini
(Democratic Party) in Empoli and Giuseppe Falcomatà
(Democratic Party) in Reggio Calabria will also be running for
a second term.
However, the names of their contenders have yet to be chosen.
The outgoing mayors
26. The 73% of outgoing mayors were re-elected in 2009, this percentage
dropped to 44%* in 2018.
In other words, if once it was highly likely mayors running for a second term to
be re-elected by their citizens, today things look far more complicated: fewer
than half of the outgoing mayors succeed in getting re-elected.
Will they be re-elected?
*Data from QUORUM/Youtrend: https://www.youtrend.it/2018/09/26/verso-elezioni-comunali-2019-sindaci-uscenti-tasso-riconferma/
27. Telos Analisi & Strategie
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Via del Plebiscito 107 • Roma 00186
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