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February 2019
The third moment of truth
Why sustainable packaging became a corporate necessity
By Ian Payne and Colin Strong
The Third
Moment
of Truth
3
Context
5,000 years ago, in the historical region of southern
Mesopotamia, the oldest existing drinking straw was
used to help avoid sediment, a by-product in the
fermentation of beer. It was a gold tube, inlaid with
precious stones. It was reusable.
Habits have changed but today an estimated 390
million plastic straws are disposed of daily in the
USA alone,1
a testament to their enduring appeal.
Taking 200 years to degrade, drink with one today
and it may well be with us into the 23rd
century.
Single-use plastics have therefore become
poster children for environmental irresponsibility.
Already, four in 10 consumers report that they have
started using fewer plastic straws due to recent
attention on the issue, according to a recent Ipsos/
Buzzfeed poll.2
Nearly half support local governments banning their
use. What’s more, nearly eight in 10 people globally
believe we’re heading towards an environmental
disaster unless we change our habits quickly.3
The Third
Moment
of Truth
4
Although only one aspect of a complex issue, repeated
exposure to highly impactful images challenge
consumers to consider the consequence of their
choices. In what is now a highly emotive issue with
growing saliency, manufacturers and retailers are being
challenged to take leadership and demonstrate genuine
change, consistent with stated CSR objectives.
Packaging has long been the intersection between
tangible and intangible brand assets – an expression of
the brand through design and functionality. It plays the
critical role in helping protect, transport and preserve
assets which themselves have only been produced at a
cost in terms of material, energy, time, labour, water, plant
and animal resources. In that context, it is a necessary
and pragmatic investment: “typically, the energy used
to make packaging is 8% of the total energy used to
produce and deliver all the products that we buy.”4
Increasingly, brands will have to operate in a more
constrained environment with packaging material, for
example, coming under more scrutiny from government
and consumers alike. Fifty years on from the birth of the
recycling symbol, we’re at a metaphorical tipping point
where fundamental attributes of packaging design are
challenged.
But necessity is the mother of invention and those
companies who grasp the opportunity to take
leadership have the potential for great reward. In a
world of flat CPG growth, it is packaging which offers
manufacturers real opportunity to develop meaningful
differentiation, driving distinctiveness, salience and
ultimately influencing choice.
Nearly eight in 10
people globally
believe we’re
heading towards
an environmental
disaster.
5
Issue 1: Taking Leadership On Environment
Recyclability is only one aspect of the product lifecycle,
but perceived environmental responsibility provides
comfort for consumers that they’re doing the right
thing. We feel good about recycling and the large
majority believe it makes a positive difference without
necessarily knowing how.5
The physical act of sorting
leads to reward.
Behaviour can be nudged by carefully considered
design. In a 2008 study, “two sets of three bins where
placed throughout an academic building. One set
had no lids, while the other had a flap lid for trash, a
lid with a 6-inch hole for recyclables and a lid with a
narrow slit for paper. The results were astonishing: Not
only did the shaped lids increase correct recycling by
34%, but the amount of contaminants, such as food,
in the recycling stream collapsed by 95%.”6
However,
the evidence that these sorts of ‘nudges’ are able to
change behaviour across a variety of situations remains
less than compelling.
Zero moment of truth
Memory saliency
Tangible design features
which trigger associations
Second moment of truth
At home, on the go, in-use...
Physical characteristics
and functionality driving
usage and repeat
First moment of truth
Stand out in store
Ability to stand out from
competitive set
Third moment of truth
Disposal and recycling
Pack as a positive aspect
in product’s sustainability
Considering packaging from a consumer perspective …increasingly there’s a third moment of truth
The Third
Moment
of Truth
6
“We can’t solve the plastic pollution crisis by
substituting one kind of unnecessary single-use
plastic with another,” says John Hocevar, the ocean
campaigns director for Greenpeace.7
There’s a
compelling argument that it’s not enough to replace
one bad-for-the-environment format with a format
which is slightly less bad i.e. that mass disposability
is the problem. The shorter-term reality, however, will
likely be experimentation with material and format.
If these provide demonstrably better environmental
outcomes versus substitutes, they should be
applauded. Consider three examples:
NEW
TECHNOLOGY
Newsworthy and consistent with
corporate CSR manifesto. Same
amount of product in a much
reduced format.
RETHINKING A
WELL-KNOWN FORMAT
Uses glue instead of plastic rings.
Taps into emotive issue (ocean
plastic waste). Delivers an audible
click on separation.
COMPOSTABLE
MATERIAL
“The ecologic packaging is the
perfect articulation of our brand” John
Replogle, CEO Seventh Gen. The
world’s only commercially-viable paper
bottles made from recycled materials.
Although there’s less scope to deliver significant
behaviour change through packaging design alone, each
of these examples have the potential to stand out and
ultimately drive change. They are newsworthy, as well as
being clear and plausible demonstrations of leadership.
And consumers give manufacturers credit. Recent
Ipsos community research in the US on the 2020
Starbucks announcement highlights significant upside
with 48% of people aged 18-34 being more favourable
to the brand.
7
Total Age 18-34 Age 35+
I felt much more favourably about the brand 20% 27% 16%
I felt slightly more favourably about the brand 18% 21% 16%
It did not change my impression of the brand 43% 36% 47%
I felt slightly less favourably about the brand 4% 5% 3%
I felt much less favourably about the brand 5% 3% 5%
I did not know about this announcement until now 11% 9% 12%
Starbucks is finally
drawing a line
in the sand and
creating a mould
for other large
brands to follow.
Chris Milne, director of packaging sourcing for Starbucks
HOW CONSUMERS RESPONDED TO STARBUCKS’ ANNOUNCEMENT
TO STOP USING PLASTIC STRAWS AFTER 2020
7
Starbucks Coffee
@Starbucks
New strawless lids to replace plastic straws
news.starbucks.com
We’re removing plastic straws in our stores
globally by 2020—reducing more than 1
billion plastic straws per year from our
stores.
Follow
The Third
Moment
of Truth
8
Issue 2: Private Labels
Demonstrating leadership is critical because it’s the
category captains and other incumbent brands which
have most to lose – “there’s a giant surgency in private
brands, those are growing. And there’s a lot of surging
in new entrepreneurial companies selling online as well.
Little Mom and Pops are springing up everywhere. But
those big brands, they’ve got to do something.”8
The performance of private labels in Europe highlight
the potential for erosion of distinctive assets that
define national brands. Hard discounters like ALDI
and Lidl have aggressively leveraged design norms
to deliver category fluency. The positive associations
which brands have developed over many years with
much marketing spend are available for a significantly
lower price; readily triggered through packaging
design:
BRANDS
LIKE BRANDS. ONLY CHEAPER
Like Brands.
Only Cheaper
is ALDI’s candid
summary of
a consistent
strategy.
9
“Like Brands. Only cheaper” is ALDI’s candid summary
of a consistent strategy which has helped nurture a
clear positioning versus more established retailers.9
The development of private label offerings from more
established retailers like Tesco in the UK is testament
to that impact:
Brands are dealing with multiple pressures and flat
sales are perhaps understandable in the context of a
competitive environment markedly changed compared
to even 10 years ago. Private labels have raised the
bar in terms of design and performance, delivering
deep associations with value. The danger for brands
is if hard discounters and retailers in general, take
leadership on environmental sustainability. And there
are clear indications that this is already a battleground.
In the UK for example, national retailer ‘Iceland’, which
has 800 stores ‘pledged to completely remove plastic
packaging from our own label range by 2023 and are
proud to be the first major retailer to do so.’10
TESCO VALUE (1993)
Tesco was the first su-
permarket to launch
a value range back in
1993, the blue-and-
white striped brand giv-
ing customers an option
outside brands.
EVERYDAY VALUE (2012)
Relaunched to provide
products “that taste
better, look better and
are healthier”. Com-
bined with product line
changes too in a major
relaunch.
EVERYDAY VALUE PLUS (2016)
Tesco  stepped up its
fight against German
discounters Aldi and Lidl
and revamped its bud-
get range of value prod-
ucts with a new range of
own-label “farm” brands.
JACK’S (OCT 2018)
Tesco unveiled its new
discount chain Jack’s
as the UK’s biggest
supermarket throwing
down the gauntlet to
the discounters.
The Third
Moment
of Truth
10
Issue 3: Digital And The Electronic Shelf
Digital offers huge opportunities to certain sectors
in terms of engagement, which is impacting brand
development, activation and measurement. The China
Cosmetic and Personal Care market, for example, is
predicted to be 40% online sales by 2021.11
Moving from a physical to digital environment
impacts the role that packaging plays but more
fundamentally, in embracing its potential, companies
like L’Oréal are raising the bar in terms of “reinvesting
in the consumer experience through innovation,
services and personalisation. And for that L’Oréal is
looking to new technology such as augmented reality,
conversational commerce and artificial intelligence.”
L’Oréal’s acquisition of Modiface, which develops
custom AR beauty apps demonstrate their intent (as
we can see in the example below).12
Clearly, some categories benefit disproportionately
in what digital offers for engagement. How CPG
brands transition from a heritage of brand blocked,
bricks & mortar distribution to representation in the
11
online shelf has the potential to further undermine
the distinctiveness of established brands. Not only
are physical features diluted online, but even the
label is increasingly simplified in an effort to drive
clarity and stopping power.
Finally, the consumer voice through online ratings
means the conversation is not only brand to
consumer but also consumer to consumer.
“Research shows  that 91 percent of people
regularly or occasionally read online reviews, and 84
percent trust online reviews as much as a personal
recommendation.”13
These are three issues facing brands today. The net
result is that brands must be smarter in terms of
developing mixes which make sense to consumers
who are more than ever likely to be concerned about
environmental impact, exposed to increasingly
sophisticated private label offerings and have more
choice online.
“A Mobile Ready Hero Image (MRHI) is a
representation of a real-world product that
may differ from a standard pack shot, but that
maintains the majority of the physical pack’s key
elements of design, shape and colour, and is
therefore recognisable on a Digital Shelf. The
image should include, or be closely associated
with, key elements customers are likely to use
when making a purchase decision/choosing the
correct product from search results.”14
The Third
Moment
of Truth
12
Development Framework
Ipsos research confirms an intuitive truth that
brands have a greater chance of success when
they’re supported by distinctive packaging which
communicates relevant benefits in a unique way.
Success requires a deep understanding of motivations
as well as comprehension of the impact of executional
elements. Packaging design testing is catered for
by an abundance of methodologies with a focus
on evaluation and A/B testing. Change tends to be
incremental as brands rightly guard the distinctive
assets which support automatic behaviour at shelf.
With the issues described, packaging development
will be well served by leveraging insights which
recognise people as both consumers and citizens, by
understanding underlying motivations. Increasingly,
we must consider the degree to which the pack can
communicate higher order meanings, such as brand
purpose and packaging’s role in the complete product
life-cycle with attention to environmental sustainability.
Added to this is the requirement of packaging not only
to work in a physical environment, at the shelf, but
also in a digital context. Pack has a more complex role
to play in the customer journey and it is important to
explore the way in which it needs to fulfil this variety of
objectives.
Behavioural science for
packaging evaluation
Research methods which promote natural responses,
in the context of realistic choice situations, can
evaluate effectiveness and recommend optimizations
of current practices and marketing collateral.
Semiotics plays a key role in design development,
providing the cultural context to help understand
consumer reaction to the signs and symbols which
We must consider
the degree to
which the pack
can communicate
higher order
meanings, such as
brand purpose and
packaging’s role
in the complete
product life-cycle.
13
drive the overall effectiveness of design. Increasingly,
behavioural science also emerges as a key discipline
to inform design decisions.
Applying a behavioural science lens can help identify
the psychological mechanisms at work and further our
understanding of the way pack influences attitudes
and behaviours. Incorporating a framework helps
drive consistency across the organization as well
as raising awareness of the deeper considerations
being made about design, particularly if the goal
is, for example, to activate higher order outcomes
related to enhanced understanding of pack’s role in
environmental sustainability for example.
A ‘Five H’ framework can help pack deliver on these
ever more complex requirements. This is drawn from
a theory of experience that has been developed by
Schmitt (1999). The starting point for pack design
has a broader strategic underpinning – the desired
outcomes rather than the design attributes. It offers
a consistent basis for comparing different packs
(both own and competition), which helps to identify
opportunities for differentiation. We can use it to
articulate the strategic requirements of the pack and
how these can be converted into design. Finally, it
can be used to understand the role that pack plays
in the wider consumer journey.
Clearly each of these may have many distinctive
characteristics within them – so we use a design brief
which helps articulate the type of consumer experience
required of pack. Each has various aspects of design
that can support the desired experience.
AFFECTIVE
both sensory and emotional
experiences
Heart
BEHAVIOURAL
physical actions, lifestyles and
interactions
Hands
COGNITIVE
conscious mental processes,
problem-solving and creativity
Head
SOCIAL
the social context of an experience
Herd
ETHICAL
experiences which support ethical
outcomes
Hero
The framework consists of:
The Third
Moment
of Truth
14
The Ipsos behavioural science team has undertaken
research to examine the way in which various
aspects of design can generate positive outcomes.
By comparing to the context of the other choices
available to consumers, a given design is considered
against a desired outcome e.g. “I make responsible
choices with respect to the environment”. This
framework accounts for the outcomes which are
already long established in branding (Heart, Head,
Hands) and additionally incorporates facets which
will play an increasing role in determining choice –
whether this product offers a better outcome in both
a social and ethical context, versus other alternatives
in the consideration set.
This is important because design’s role is no longer
about driving standout, image, personality etc.
Manufacturers must increasingly demonstrate to
consumers tangible packaging outcomes which are
understandable as a direct consequence of the CSR
aspirations written in every annual report.
For example, take the below context:
82% of US adults agree with the statement
“I think manufacturers should actively sup-
port recycling initiatives for the products
they sell” [Ipsos research on 1,310 adults aged
18 -65, November 2018]
There is an opportunity for manufacturers to both
promote better understanding of the reason why a
particular material is used as well as providing more
transparency on the environmental outcomes related to
that packaging. Effectively, manufacturers will be well
served in getting ahead of a day where legislation might
require a packaging ‘health warning’.
Brands which are perceived to take leadership in relation
to environmental sustainability will benefit. For example,
48% of US adults aged 18-34 have a more favourable
impression of Starbucks following their announcement
to remove plastic straws by 2020 [see page six].
Brands which
are perceived to
take leadership
in relation to
environmental
sustainability
will benefit.
15
Consideration of such issues within the broader
framework provides for a holistic view, but also will
help level set expectations of what is achievable.
The table below shows how one aspect of design
relates to aspects of the consumer experience:
Design Lever Effect
Experience outcomes
Heart Head Hands Herd
Visual Complexity Attention / Appeal / Comprehension High Med Med Low
Colour / Colour Embodiment Attention / Emotion High High Low Low
Logo Attention / Recall High Med Med Low
Typeface Recall High Med Low Low
Visual Cues Comprehension Med Med Low High
Material Perceived sustainability benefit Med Med Med High
Managing choice / navigation Preference / Comprehension Med High High High
Presentation design lever’s impact on shaping experience dimensions
Note that other aspects of design may also be covered
– such as the physical form of the pack etc. The point
is to level set how each aspect of design might affect
the consumer outcome.
So, in this example above, we can see that there are
many ways in which design levers can be used to deliver
an emotional (heart) experience. A wide range of options
are available from typeface (example) through to colour.
In the case of colour, research suggests that shorter
wavelength hues (e.g. blue) induce greater feelings of
relaxation than longer wavelength colours (e.g. red).
We see that social behaviour (Herd) is less influenced
by presentation attributes. Instead choice architecture
– the way decision-making criteria is presented – can
have a significant effect on the way that choices
are perceived, and the degree to which people are
likely to share and participate in an experience.
Packaging which promotes interaction can have a
powerful impact on driving more cognitive attributes –
processing of information, empowerment, developing
a sense of competence and mastery, while potentially
changing consumers’ preferences.
The Third
Moment
of Truth
16
The framework provides an approach for consistently
identifying the different elements of the ideal
experience outcomes (across the H’s) and relating
this back to the research literature to establish how
design can help to deliver that experience.
Behavioural science can directly assist in the
optimisation of pack design through Pack audits.
Our audits begin with an identification of the desired
outcomes – what experience is the brand aiming to
communicate? Then, we review the pack to assess the
extent to which aspects of the design are supporting
the consumer experience objectives. We then make
recommendations concerning the ways in which the
pack can be optimised to best meet the objectives.
Pack development: The audit can be used to
inform the development of new designs. These can
be rapidly tested in digital environments, using a
variety of methods to report outcomes efficiently in
terms of time and resource.
An example application15
was whether
a brand should decrease the size of
its bottle cap to reduce material usage
(saving money on production costs as
well as providing news to consumers
on plastic reduction). Several
disadvantages of using the smaller
cap were identified including: losing
visual attention space, decreases in
perceived volume, losses in findability,
and changes in product perceptions
due to category norms. Because of the
cost implications, we also proposed a
few ways to mitigate these potential
negatives of the cap change. Finally,
we recommended ways that these
changes could be tested experimentally
to assess consumers’ responses.
17
Pack Development – Example Methods
Discover Create Screen Validate
Provide guidance prior
to development. Identify
distinctive assets to
help maximize memory
and attention saliency.
Determine if pack drives
or undermines. equity.
KPIs and diagnostics
to drive fast and
robust quantitative-
based decisions within
competitive context.
Enhance design process
with a rich set of
integrated qual-quant
tools and frameworks
which leverage deep
design knowledge from
specialist facilitators.
Go/No Go testing using
real or virtual shelves.
Incorporate behavioural
and implicit measures for
deeper diagnostics. Test
functionality to ensure
format innovation delivers
on expectations.
Online 2D
VR and AR
Online 3D and 360
Shopper Labs
Shopper Labs remain the ‘gold standard’ and suited
for late stage validation particularly for highest risk
cases, or where material or structural innovation
is difficult to render online. Digital representation
of shelf, store and ecommerce environments are
however valid in the large majority of cases and
Ipsos’ new Simstore platform for example offers
best in class 2D, 3D and 360 environments, getting
participants ‘closer to real’.
The Third
Moment
of Truth
18
CONCLUSIONS
The performance of hard discounters in Europe and
the evolution of private labels help provide context for
why many established mainstream brands struggle for
growth. As attitudes change globally, further pressure
will come from retailers making a more significant play
on sustainability, providing another compelling reason
for consideration beyond value.
Manufacturers can and must demonstrate leadership
through action. Unilever, L’Oréal and Coca-Cola, for
example, are among 250 signatories who have pledged
to eliminate “problematic or unnecessary” plastic
packaging and move from single-use to reusable
packaging by 2025, to ensure all plastic packaging
can be “easily and safely” recycled or composted and
to increase the amounts of plastics reused or recycled
into new packaging or products.”16
And there are increasingly more tangible initiatives
which will demonstrate change to consumers. Tide’s
new Eco Box demonstrates how genuinely new
outcomes can be achieved driven by the convergence
of significant drivers of change i.e. working in
partnership with Amazon for streamlined fulfilment
and providing consumers with a sustainability benefit
of reduced plastic usage. And, by cannily leveraging a
familiar ‘wine box’ format, Tide were able to clearly tap
into an existing functional expectation.
If Tide’s new box is a precursor of things to come,
then consumers will see genuine packaging innovation
more often. Brands which deliver meaningful change
and do so without compromising benefits or price, will
be rewarded a competitive advantage.
Behavioural science integrates a strategic
understanding of market dynamics with tangible
design guidance. Adopting a framework can help bring
pack into a wider context and help avoid ‘scatter gun’
recommendations. As the messages that brands need
to be communicating to consumers are increasingly
higher order, the demands on pack design are greater
than ever. The marriage of behavioural science within
a wider strategic framework is ever more critical to
deliver successful pack design.
References:
1	
Niraj Chokshi (July 19, 2018). “How a 9-Year-Old Boy’s Statistic
	 Shaped a Debate on Straws”. New York Times.
2
	 Americans in Favor of Limiting Use of Plastic Straws
	https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Attitudes-Toward-
	Plastic-Straws
3
	 Ipsos MORI Global Trends 2017 – the biggest survey of its
	 kind https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-
	global-trends-2017-biggest-survey-its-kind
4
	 Why products are packaged the way they are. INCPEN
	 (Industry Council for Packaging and the Environment)
5
	https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/eight-ten-
	people-believe-recycling-makes-difference-have-no/
6
	https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/18/health/psychology-of-
	recycling/index.html
7
	https://www.fastcompany.com/90208207/why-starbucks-
	plastic-straw-ban-might-not-help-the-environment
8
	https://www.packworld.com/article/trends-and-issues/e-
	commerce/experiential-packaging-e-commerce?ajs_
	uid=6799H8357367E4Z&oly_enc_id=6799H8357367E4Z&ajs_
	trait_oebid=6890E1361578B3P
9
	http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/21/tesco-
	revamps-own-label-range-fight-discounters-aldi-lidl
10
	https://www.iceland.co.uk/environment/
11
	https://www.statista.com/outlook/70000000/117/cosmetics-
	personal-care/china#market-onlineRevenueShare
12
	https://www.marketingweek.com/2018/07/03/loreal-drives-
	marketing-effectiveness/
13
	https://www.inc.com/craig-bloem/84-percent-of-people-trust-
	online-reviews-as-much-.html
14
	 GS1 Mobile Ready Hero Images Guideline
15
	 pack shown is an example of the change discussed, but
	 not the actual case assessed
16
	https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/208043/
	unilever-among-250-firms-to-make-plastic-elimination-
	pledge-208043.html
The Third
Moment
of Truth
20
Ian Payne Global Service Leader, Pack Testing
Colin Strong Global Head of Behavioural Science
At Ipsos, we are passionate about helping clients identify, qualify, optimise
and forecast the business potential of innovations, products and packaging.
Our rapid and validated end-to-end solutions, combining optimisation
with qualification, enable clients to be faster in seizing opportunities and
be more agile in bringing their products to market. Unique to Ipsos is our
high-quality overnight innovation testing, our ability to forecast at any point
in product development, our strong heritage in product testing, and our
application of behavioural science and neuroscience.
With unparalleled global reach and expertise across a wide range of sectors, we
offer smart, agile and integrated solutions, allowing clients to lead their categories
with disruptive and innovative product, package and service propositions.
The Ipsos Views white papers
are produced by the Ipsos
Knowledge Centre.
www.ipsos.com
@Ipsos
GAME CHANGERS
<< Game Changers >> is the Ipsos signature.
At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people,
markets, brands and society. We make our changing world
easier and faster to navigate and inspire clients to make
smarter decisions. We deliver with security, simplicity,
speed and substance. We are Game Changers.
The Third
Moment
of Truth

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The Third Moment Of Truth

  • 1. 1 February 2019 The third moment of truth Why sustainable packaging became a corporate necessity By Ian Payne and Colin Strong
  • 2. The Third Moment of Truth 3 Context 5,000 years ago, in the historical region of southern Mesopotamia, the oldest existing drinking straw was used to help avoid sediment, a by-product in the fermentation of beer. It was a gold tube, inlaid with precious stones. It was reusable. Habits have changed but today an estimated 390 million plastic straws are disposed of daily in the USA alone,1 a testament to their enduring appeal. Taking 200 years to degrade, drink with one today and it may well be with us into the 23rd century. Single-use plastics have therefore become poster children for environmental irresponsibility. Already, four in 10 consumers report that they have started using fewer plastic straws due to recent attention on the issue, according to a recent Ipsos/ Buzzfeed poll.2 Nearly half support local governments banning their use. What’s more, nearly eight in 10 people globally believe we’re heading towards an environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly.3
  • 3. The Third Moment of Truth 4 Although only one aspect of a complex issue, repeated exposure to highly impactful images challenge consumers to consider the consequence of their choices. In what is now a highly emotive issue with growing saliency, manufacturers and retailers are being challenged to take leadership and demonstrate genuine change, consistent with stated CSR objectives. Packaging has long been the intersection between tangible and intangible brand assets – an expression of the brand through design and functionality. It plays the critical role in helping protect, transport and preserve assets which themselves have only been produced at a cost in terms of material, energy, time, labour, water, plant and animal resources. In that context, it is a necessary and pragmatic investment: “typically, the energy used to make packaging is 8% of the total energy used to produce and deliver all the products that we buy.”4 Increasingly, brands will have to operate in a more constrained environment with packaging material, for example, coming under more scrutiny from government and consumers alike. Fifty years on from the birth of the recycling symbol, we’re at a metaphorical tipping point where fundamental attributes of packaging design are challenged. But necessity is the mother of invention and those companies who grasp the opportunity to take leadership have the potential for great reward. In a world of flat CPG growth, it is packaging which offers manufacturers real opportunity to develop meaningful differentiation, driving distinctiveness, salience and ultimately influencing choice. Nearly eight in 10 people globally believe we’re heading towards an environmental disaster.
  • 4. 5 Issue 1: Taking Leadership On Environment Recyclability is only one aspect of the product lifecycle, but perceived environmental responsibility provides comfort for consumers that they’re doing the right thing. We feel good about recycling and the large majority believe it makes a positive difference without necessarily knowing how.5 The physical act of sorting leads to reward. Behaviour can be nudged by carefully considered design. In a 2008 study, “two sets of three bins where placed throughout an academic building. One set had no lids, while the other had a flap lid for trash, a lid with a 6-inch hole for recyclables and a lid with a narrow slit for paper. The results were astonishing: Not only did the shaped lids increase correct recycling by 34%, but the amount of contaminants, such as food, in the recycling stream collapsed by 95%.”6 However, the evidence that these sorts of ‘nudges’ are able to change behaviour across a variety of situations remains less than compelling. Zero moment of truth Memory saliency Tangible design features which trigger associations Second moment of truth At home, on the go, in-use... Physical characteristics and functionality driving usage and repeat First moment of truth Stand out in store Ability to stand out from competitive set Third moment of truth Disposal and recycling Pack as a positive aspect in product’s sustainability Considering packaging from a consumer perspective …increasingly there’s a third moment of truth
  • 5. The Third Moment of Truth 6 “We can’t solve the plastic pollution crisis by substituting one kind of unnecessary single-use plastic with another,” says John Hocevar, the ocean campaigns director for Greenpeace.7 There’s a compelling argument that it’s not enough to replace one bad-for-the-environment format with a format which is slightly less bad i.e. that mass disposability is the problem. The shorter-term reality, however, will likely be experimentation with material and format. If these provide demonstrably better environmental outcomes versus substitutes, they should be applauded. Consider three examples: NEW TECHNOLOGY Newsworthy and consistent with corporate CSR manifesto. Same amount of product in a much reduced format. RETHINKING A WELL-KNOWN FORMAT Uses glue instead of plastic rings. Taps into emotive issue (ocean plastic waste). Delivers an audible click on separation. COMPOSTABLE MATERIAL “The ecologic packaging is the perfect articulation of our brand” John Replogle, CEO Seventh Gen. The world’s only commercially-viable paper bottles made from recycled materials. Although there’s less scope to deliver significant behaviour change through packaging design alone, each of these examples have the potential to stand out and ultimately drive change. They are newsworthy, as well as being clear and plausible demonstrations of leadership. And consumers give manufacturers credit. Recent Ipsos community research in the US on the 2020 Starbucks announcement highlights significant upside with 48% of people aged 18-34 being more favourable to the brand.
  • 6. 7 Total Age 18-34 Age 35+ I felt much more favourably about the brand 20% 27% 16% I felt slightly more favourably about the brand 18% 21% 16% It did not change my impression of the brand 43% 36% 47% I felt slightly less favourably about the brand 4% 5% 3% I felt much less favourably about the brand 5% 3% 5% I did not know about this announcement until now 11% 9% 12% Starbucks is finally drawing a line in the sand and creating a mould for other large brands to follow. Chris Milne, director of packaging sourcing for Starbucks HOW CONSUMERS RESPONDED TO STARBUCKS’ ANNOUNCEMENT TO STOP USING PLASTIC STRAWS AFTER 2020 7 Starbucks Coffee @Starbucks New strawless lids to replace plastic straws news.starbucks.com We’re removing plastic straws in our stores globally by 2020—reducing more than 1 billion plastic straws per year from our stores. Follow
  • 7. The Third Moment of Truth 8 Issue 2: Private Labels Demonstrating leadership is critical because it’s the category captains and other incumbent brands which have most to lose – “there’s a giant surgency in private brands, those are growing. And there’s a lot of surging in new entrepreneurial companies selling online as well. Little Mom and Pops are springing up everywhere. But those big brands, they’ve got to do something.”8 The performance of private labels in Europe highlight the potential for erosion of distinctive assets that define national brands. Hard discounters like ALDI and Lidl have aggressively leveraged design norms to deliver category fluency. The positive associations which brands have developed over many years with much marketing spend are available for a significantly lower price; readily triggered through packaging design: BRANDS LIKE BRANDS. ONLY CHEAPER Like Brands. Only Cheaper is ALDI’s candid summary of a consistent strategy.
  • 8. 9 “Like Brands. Only cheaper” is ALDI’s candid summary of a consistent strategy which has helped nurture a clear positioning versus more established retailers.9 The development of private label offerings from more established retailers like Tesco in the UK is testament to that impact: Brands are dealing with multiple pressures and flat sales are perhaps understandable in the context of a competitive environment markedly changed compared to even 10 years ago. Private labels have raised the bar in terms of design and performance, delivering deep associations with value. The danger for brands is if hard discounters and retailers in general, take leadership on environmental sustainability. And there are clear indications that this is already a battleground. In the UK for example, national retailer ‘Iceland’, which has 800 stores ‘pledged to completely remove plastic packaging from our own label range by 2023 and are proud to be the first major retailer to do so.’10 TESCO VALUE (1993) Tesco was the first su- permarket to launch a value range back in 1993, the blue-and- white striped brand giv- ing customers an option outside brands. EVERYDAY VALUE (2012) Relaunched to provide products “that taste better, look better and are healthier”. Com- bined with product line changes too in a major relaunch. EVERYDAY VALUE PLUS (2016) Tesco  stepped up its fight against German discounters Aldi and Lidl and revamped its bud- get range of value prod- ucts with a new range of own-label “farm” brands. JACK’S (OCT 2018) Tesco unveiled its new discount chain Jack’s as the UK’s biggest supermarket throwing down the gauntlet to the discounters.
  • 9. The Third Moment of Truth 10 Issue 3: Digital And The Electronic Shelf Digital offers huge opportunities to certain sectors in terms of engagement, which is impacting brand development, activation and measurement. The China Cosmetic and Personal Care market, for example, is predicted to be 40% online sales by 2021.11 Moving from a physical to digital environment impacts the role that packaging plays but more fundamentally, in embracing its potential, companies like L’Oréal are raising the bar in terms of “reinvesting in the consumer experience through innovation, services and personalisation. And for that L’Oréal is looking to new technology such as augmented reality, conversational commerce and artificial intelligence.” L’Oréal’s acquisition of Modiface, which develops custom AR beauty apps demonstrate their intent (as we can see in the example below).12 Clearly, some categories benefit disproportionately in what digital offers for engagement. How CPG brands transition from a heritage of brand blocked, bricks & mortar distribution to representation in the
  • 10. 11 online shelf has the potential to further undermine the distinctiveness of established brands. Not only are physical features diluted online, but even the label is increasingly simplified in an effort to drive clarity and stopping power. Finally, the consumer voice through online ratings means the conversation is not only brand to consumer but also consumer to consumer. “Research shows  that 91 percent of people regularly or occasionally read online reviews, and 84 percent trust online reviews as much as a personal recommendation.”13 These are three issues facing brands today. The net result is that brands must be smarter in terms of developing mixes which make sense to consumers who are more than ever likely to be concerned about environmental impact, exposed to increasingly sophisticated private label offerings and have more choice online. “A Mobile Ready Hero Image (MRHI) is a representation of a real-world product that may differ from a standard pack shot, but that maintains the majority of the physical pack’s key elements of design, shape and colour, and is therefore recognisable on a Digital Shelf. The image should include, or be closely associated with, key elements customers are likely to use when making a purchase decision/choosing the correct product from search results.”14
  • 11. The Third Moment of Truth 12 Development Framework Ipsos research confirms an intuitive truth that brands have a greater chance of success when they’re supported by distinctive packaging which communicates relevant benefits in a unique way. Success requires a deep understanding of motivations as well as comprehension of the impact of executional elements. Packaging design testing is catered for by an abundance of methodologies with a focus on evaluation and A/B testing. Change tends to be incremental as brands rightly guard the distinctive assets which support automatic behaviour at shelf. With the issues described, packaging development will be well served by leveraging insights which recognise people as both consumers and citizens, by understanding underlying motivations. Increasingly, we must consider the degree to which the pack can communicate higher order meanings, such as brand purpose and packaging’s role in the complete product life-cycle with attention to environmental sustainability. Added to this is the requirement of packaging not only to work in a physical environment, at the shelf, but also in a digital context. Pack has a more complex role to play in the customer journey and it is important to explore the way in which it needs to fulfil this variety of objectives. Behavioural science for packaging evaluation Research methods which promote natural responses, in the context of realistic choice situations, can evaluate effectiveness and recommend optimizations of current practices and marketing collateral. Semiotics plays a key role in design development, providing the cultural context to help understand consumer reaction to the signs and symbols which We must consider the degree to which the pack can communicate higher order meanings, such as brand purpose and packaging’s role in the complete product life-cycle.
  • 12. 13 drive the overall effectiveness of design. Increasingly, behavioural science also emerges as a key discipline to inform design decisions. Applying a behavioural science lens can help identify the psychological mechanisms at work and further our understanding of the way pack influences attitudes and behaviours. Incorporating a framework helps drive consistency across the organization as well as raising awareness of the deeper considerations being made about design, particularly if the goal is, for example, to activate higher order outcomes related to enhanced understanding of pack’s role in environmental sustainability for example. A ‘Five H’ framework can help pack deliver on these ever more complex requirements. This is drawn from a theory of experience that has been developed by Schmitt (1999). The starting point for pack design has a broader strategic underpinning – the desired outcomes rather than the design attributes. It offers a consistent basis for comparing different packs (both own and competition), which helps to identify opportunities for differentiation. We can use it to articulate the strategic requirements of the pack and how these can be converted into design. Finally, it can be used to understand the role that pack plays in the wider consumer journey. Clearly each of these may have many distinctive characteristics within them – so we use a design brief which helps articulate the type of consumer experience required of pack. Each has various aspects of design that can support the desired experience. AFFECTIVE both sensory and emotional experiences Heart BEHAVIOURAL physical actions, lifestyles and interactions Hands COGNITIVE conscious mental processes, problem-solving and creativity Head SOCIAL the social context of an experience Herd ETHICAL experiences which support ethical outcomes Hero The framework consists of:
  • 13. The Third Moment of Truth 14 The Ipsos behavioural science team has undertaken research to examine the way in which various aspects of design can generate positive outcomes. By comparing to the context of the other choices available to consumers, a given design is considered against a desired outcome e.g. “I make responsible choices with respect to the environment”. This framework accounts for the outcomes which are already long established in branding (Heart, Head, Hands) and additionally incorporates facets which will play an increasing role in determining choice – whether this product offers a better outcome in both a social and ethical context, versus other alternatives in the consideration set. This is important because design’s role is no longer about driving standout, image, personality etc. Manufacturers must increasingly demonstrate to consumers tangible packaging outcomes which are understandable as a direct consequence of the CSR aspirations written in every annual report. For example, take the below context: 82% of US adults agree with the statement “I think manufacturers should actively sup- port recycling initiatives for the products they sell” [Ipsos research on 1,310 adults aged 18 -65, November 2018] There is an opportunity for manufacturers to both promote better understanding of the reason why a particular material is used as well as providing more transparency on the environmental outcomes related to that packaging. Effectively, manufacturers will be well served in getting ahead of a day where legislation might require a packaging ‘health warning’. Brands which are perceived to take leadership in relation to environmental sustainability will benefit. For example, 48% of US adults aged 18-34 have a more favourable impression of Starbucks following their announcement to remove plastic straws by 2020 [see page six]. Brands which are perceived to take leadership in relation to environmental sustainability will benefit.
  • 14. 15 Consideration of such issues within the broader framework provides for a holistic view, but also will help level set expectations of what is achievable. The table below shows how one aspect of design relates to aspects of the consumer experience: Design Lever Effect Experience outcomes Heart Head Hands Herd Visual Complexity Attention / Appeal / Comprehension High Med Med Low Colour / Colour Embodiment Attention / Emotion High High Low Low Logo Attention / Recall High Med Med Low Typeface Recall High Med Low Low Visual Cues Comprehension Med Med Low High Material Perceived sustainability benefit Med Med Med High Managing choice / navigation Preference / Comprehension Med High High High Presentation design lever’s impact on shaping experience dimensions Note that other aspects of design may also be covered – such as the physical form of the pack etc. The point is to level set how each aspect of design might affect the consumer outcome. So, in this example above, we can see that there are many ways in which design levers can be used to deliver an emotional (heart) experience. A wide range of options are available from typeface (example) through to colour. In the case of colour, research suggests that shorter wavelength hues (e.g. blue) induce greater feelings of relaxation than longer wavelength colours (e.g. red). We see that social behaviour (Herd) is less influenced by presentation attributes. Instead choice architecture – the way decision-making criteria is presented – can have a significant effect on the way that choices are perceived, and the degree to which people are likely to share and participate in an experience. Packaging which promotes interaction can have a powerful impact on driving more cognitive attributes – processing of information, empowerment, developing a sense of competence and mastery, while potentially changing consumers’ preferences.
  • 15. The Third Moment of Truth 16 The framework provides an approach for consistently identifying the different elements of the ideal experience outcomes (across the H’s) and relating this back to the research literature to establish how design can help to deliver that experience. Behavioural science can directly assist in the optimisation of pack design through Pack audits. Our audits begin with an identification of the desired outcomes – what experience is the brand aiming to communicate? Then, we review the pack to assess the extent to which aspects of the design are supporting the consumer experience objectives. We then make recommendations concerning the ways in which the pack can be optimised to best meet the objectives. Pack development: The audit can be used to inform the development of new designs. These can be rapidly tested in digital environments, using a variety of methods to report outcomes efficiently in terms of time and resource. An example application15 was whether a brand should decrease the size of its bottle cap to reduce material usage (saving money on production costs as well as providing news to consumers on plastic reduction). Several disadvantages of using the smaller cap were identified including: losing visual attention space, decreases in perceived volume, losses in findability, and changes in product perceptions due to category norms. Because of the cost implications, we also proposed a few ways to mitigate these potential negatives of the cap change. Finally, we recommended ways that these changes could be tested experimentally to assess consumers’ responses.
  • 16. 17 Pack Development – Example Methods Discover Create Screen Validate Provide guidance prior to development. Identify distinctive assets to help maximize memory and attention saliency. Determine if pack drives or undermines. equity. KPIs and diagnostics to drive fast and robust quantitative- based decisions within competitive context. Enhance design process with a rich set of integrated qual-quant tools and frameworks which leverage deep design knowledge from specialist facilitators. Go/No Go testing using real or virtual shelves. Incorporate behavioural and implicit measures for deeper diagnostics. Test functionality to ensure format innovation delivers on expectations. Online 2D VR and AR Online 3D and 360 Shopper Labs Shopper Labs remain the ‘gold standard’ and suited for late stage validation particularly for highest risk cases, or where material or structural innovation is difficult to render online. Digital representation of shelf, store and ecommerce environments are however valid in the large majority of cases and Ipsos’ new Simstore platform for example offers best in class 2D, 3D and 360 environments, getting participants ‘closer to real’.
  • 17. The Third Moment of Truth 18 CONCLUSIONS The performance of hard discounters in Europe and the evolution of private labels help provide context for why many established mainstream brands struggle for growth. As attitudes change globally, further pressure will come from retailers making a more significant play on sustainability, providing another compelling reason for consideration beyond value. Manufacturers can and must demonstrate leadership through action. Unilever, L’Oréal and Coca-Cola, for example, are among 250 signatories who have pledged to eliminate “problematic or unnecessary” plastic packaging and move from single-use to reusable packaging by 2025, to ensure all plastic packaging can be “easily and safely” recycled or composted and to increase the amounts of plastics reused or recycled into new packaging or products.”16 And there are increasingly more tangible initiatives which will demonstrate change to consumers. Tide’s new Eco Box demonstrates how genuinely new outcomes can be achieved driven by the convergence of significant drivers of change i.e. working in partnership with Amazon for streamlined fulfilment and providing consumers with a sustainability benefit of reduced plastic usage. And, by cannily leveraging a familiar ‘wine box’ format, Tide were able to clearly tap into an existing functional expectation. If Tide’s new box is a precursor of things to come, then consumers will see genuine packaging innovation more often. Brands which deliver meaningful change and do so without compromising benefits or price, will be rewarded a competitive advantage. Behavioural science integrates a strategic understanding of market dynamics with tangible design guidance. Adopting a framework can help bring pack into a wider context and help avoid ‘scatter gun’ recommendations. As the messages that brands need to be communicating to consumers are increasingly higher order, the demands on pack design are greater than ever. The marriage of behavioural science within a wider strategic framework is ever more critical to deliver successful pack design.
  • 18. References: 1 Niraj Chokshi (July 19, 2018). “How a 9-Year-Old Boy’s Statistic Shaped a Debate on Straws”. New York Times. 2 Americans in Favor of Limiting Use of Plastic Straws https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Attitudes-Toward- Plastic-Straws 3 Ipsos MORI Global Trends 2017 – the biggest survey of its kind https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori- global-trends-2017-biggest-survey-its-kind 4 Why products are packaged the way they are. INCPEN (Industry Council for Packaging and the Environment) 5 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/eight-ten- people-believe-recycling-makes-difference-have-no/ 6 https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/18/health/psychology-of- recycling/index.html 7 https://www.fastcompany.com/90208207/why-starbucks- plastic-straw-ban-might-not-help-the-environment 8 https://www.packworld.com/article/trends-and-issues/e- commerce/experiential-packaging-e-commerce?ajs_ uid=6799H8357367E4Z&oly_enc_id=6799H8357367E4Z&ajs_ trait_oebid=6890E1361578B3P 9 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/21/tesco- revamps-own-label-range-fight-discounters-aldi-lidl 10 https://www.iceland.co.uk/environment/ 11 https://www.statista.com/outlook/70000000/117/cosmetics- personal-care/china#market-onlineRevenueShare 12 https://www.marketingweek.com/2018/07/03/loreal-drives- marketing-effectiveness/ 13 https://www.inc.com/craig-bloem/84-percent-of-people-trust- online-reviews-as-much-.html 14 GS1 Mobile Ready Hero Images Guideline 15 pack shown is an example of the change discussed, but not the actual case assessed 16 https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/208043/ unilever-among-250-firms-to-make-plastic-elimination- pledge-208043.html
  • 19. The Third Moment of Truth 20 Ian Payne Global Service Leader, Pack Testing Colin Strong Global Head of Behavioural Science At Ipsos, we are passionate about helping clients identify, qualify, optimise and forecast the business potential of innovations, products and packaging. Our rapid and validated end-to-end solutions, combining optimisation with qualification, enable clients to be faster in seizing opportunities and be more agile in bringing their products to market. Unique to Ipsos is our high-quality overnight innovation testing, our ability to forecast at any point in product development, our strong heritage in product testing, and our application of behavioural science and neuroscience. With unparalleled global reach and expertise across a wide range of sectors, we offer smart, agile and integrated solutions, allowing clients to lead their categories with disruptive and innovative product, package and service propositions. The Ipsos Views white papers are produced by the Ipsos Knowledge Centre. www.ipsos.com @Ipsos GAME CHANGERS << Game Changers >> is the Ipsos signature. At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We make our changing world easier and faster to navigate and inspire clients to make smarter decisions. We deliver with security, simplicity, speed and substance. We are Game Changers. The Third Moment of Truth