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Future of Myanmar
Aung Ko Ko Toe
Knowledge Propagation Society (KPS)
Mandalay
 Struggling Period for independence
 Parliament Democracy
 RC (Revolutionary Council)
 BSPP (Burmese Socialist Programme Party)
 8888 Period
 SLORC
 SPDC
 Transition Period………………
MilitarizationDEMOCRACY
Civilian Military Output
Strong Weak Civilian Control
Strong Strong Wealth State(or)
instability
Weak Weak Fail State / Weak
Regime
Weak Strong Military Regime
How Condition in Myanmar
 Legitimacy Problem
 Militant Culture
 Radical Trend – Revolution
 Poverty Trap
 Power Struggle
 Transition of institutions (Period)
(Military Regime to Democratic Regime)
 CSOs and CBOs / GONGOs (Government
Owned Non Government Organization)
 Armed Groups and People War Strategy
 Media
 Printed Media and Digital Media
 Political Party
 Opposition Party / Ruling Party & Proxy Party
 Exist Strategy (Road Map)
 Power Distribution (in two branches)
 Space & Limitation
 Playing Field
 Desire - From Local Boss to Global Boss
 Commander in chief & President
 appoint to Home Affair, Defense, Border
Affair Ministers
 National Defense & Security Council (NDSC)
 25 %
Bureaucracy (Public Administration)
Business
 Other (eg; Academic Elite Class)
1) Internal Affair
2) External Affair
 Civil War, Conflict - instability
 Political, Religious, Ethnic, Economic or General
 External Threat, Invasion
 Border Affair
 Hot War Condition
 Closely Position with Rough State.
- Isolated Cover
1) Self Budget
2) Self Engineering
3) Self Health
4) Self Education
CAUSES OF Capacity Limitation
More Interdependence, Best Relation
TARGET; Civilian Control Government.
 Civilian
a) For State Building
b) For Development
c) For State Power
 Military
I. For Defense
II. For Security & Stability
III. For deterrence to prevent External Threats
IV. Human Security
 State Power ?
 Repress ?
 Non-Secession ?
 Stability ?
 Duty ?
 For State Building & Nation Building ?
(eg; SPDC)
 Relation between MILITARY & Social Class
 Upper Class - Elite, Aristocracy
 Middle Class – Bourgeoisie
 Lower Class - Working class
Relation between ruling party and
opposition groups in Myanmar.
 Hardliner
 Reformer
 Moderate
 Radical
 Such as (in Military Field)
 Scholar
 Academic Person
 Educated
- Ethic base, Norm base, Skill Full base, Functional
base :
- Professional Characteristics of Army.
5 R)
 Recognition
 Respect
 Road your Self
 Responsibility
 Reconciliation
 Dependence– Budget, Technology
 Military Science Technocrat
 Expert to Military Affair (esp; in Parliament)
 Change to Militant Culture (Radical Mindset)
 Democratic Standard
 Professionalism
 Breakdown – 25 %
 Institutionalization (Democratic institution)

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The role of military

  • 1. Future of Myanmar Aung Ko Ko Toe Knowledge Propagation Society (KPS) Mandalay
  • 2.  Struggling Period for independence  Parliament Democracy  RC (Revolutionary Council)  BSPP (Burmese Socialist Programme Party)  8888 Period  SLORC  SPDC  Transition Period………………
  • 4. Civilian Military Output Strong Weak Civilian Control Strong Strong Wealth State(or) instability Weak Weak Fail State / Weak Regime Weak Strong Military Regime How Condition in Myanmar
  • 5.  Legitimacy Problem  Militant Culture  Radical Trend – Revolution  Poverty Trap  Power Struggle  Transition of institutions (Period) (Military Regime to Democratic Regime)
  • 6.  CSOs and CBOs / GONGOs (Government Owned Non Government Organization)  Armed Groups and People War Strategy  Media  Printed Media and Digital Media  Political Party  Opposition Party / Ruling Party & Proxy Party
  • 7.  Exist Strategy (Road Map)  Power Distribution (in two branches)  Space & Limitation  Playing Field  Desire - From Local Boss to Global Boss
  • 8.  Commander in chief & President  appoint to Home Affair, Defense, Border Affair Ministers  National Defense & Security Council (NDSC)  25 % Bureaucracy (Public Administration) Business  Other (eg; Academic Elite Class)
  • 9. 1) Internal Affair 2) External Affair  Civil War, Conflict - instability  Political, Religious, Ethnic, Economic or General  External Threat, Invasion  Border Affair  Hot War Condition  Closely Position with Rough State.
  • 10. - Isolated Cover 1) Self Budget 2) Self Engineering 3) Self Health 4) Self Education CAUSES OF Capacity Limitation More Interdependence, Best Relation TARGET; Civilian Control Government.
  • 11.  Civilian a) For State Building b) For Development c) For State Power  Military I. For Defense II. For Security & Stability III. For deterrence to prevent External Threats IV. Human Security
  • 12.  State Power ?  Repress ?  Non-Secession ?  Stability ?  Duty ?  For State Building & Nation Building ? (eg; SPDC)
  • 13.  Relation between MILITARY & Social Class  Upper Class - Elite, Aristocracy  Middle Class – Bourgeoisie  Lower Class - Working class
  • 14. Relation between ruling party and opposition groups in Myanmar.  Hardliner  Reformer  Moderate  Radical
  • 15.  Such as (in Military Field)  Scholar  Academic Person  Educated - Ethic base, Norm base, Skill Full base, Functional base : - Professional Characteristics of Army.
  • 16. 5 R)  Recognition  Respect  Road your Self  Responsibility  Reconciliation
  • 17.  Dependence– Budget, Technology  Military Science Technocrat  Expert to Military Affair (esp; in Parliament)  Change to Militant Culture (Radical Mindset)  Democratic Standard  Professionalism  Breakdown – 25 %  Institutionalization (Democratic institution)