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The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report
Jonathan Lynn
Rabat Media Workshop
4 May 2015
Photo © A. Eitzinger (CIAT)
• ç
© John Kudelka
The role of the IPCC is …
“… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open
and transparent basis the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant to understanding
the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The role of the IPCC is …
“… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open
and transparent basis the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant to understanding
the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The role of the IPCC is …
“… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open
and transparent basis the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant to understanding
the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The role of the IPCC (continued)
“IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy,
although they may need to deal objectively with
scientific, technical and socio-economic factors
relevant to the application of particular policies.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
The role of the IPCC (continued)
“IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy,
although they may need to deal objectively with
scientific, technical and socio-economic factors
relevant to the application of particular policies.”
Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
What are IPCC reports used for?
What are IPCC reports used for?
IPCC structure
• UN supported
• Intergovernmental
(195 members)
AR5 Synthesis Report
What are the risks?What are the risks?
What can be done?What can be done?
IPCC structure
• UN supported
• Intergovernmental
(195 members)
IPCC reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
IPCC reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
IPCC reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
IPCC reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice
guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)
IPCC reports
Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice
guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)
Six technical papers (1996-2008)
The first four assessment reports
• FAR (1990) – led to UNFCCC
• SAR (1995) – input for Kyoto Protocol
• TAR (2001) – focused attention on impacts of
climate change and need for adaptation
• AR4 (2007) – input for decision on 2ºC limit; basis
for post Kyoto Protocol agreement
2007
AR5 Synthesis Report
2007
AR5 Synthesis Report
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold
(Al) Gore Jr. were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
"for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about
man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the
measures that are needed to counteract such change".
Fifth Assessment Report (2013/14)
AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 Synthesis Report
Finding your way round the
report
AR5 statistics
•836 authors from 85 countries
•(incl 301 DC/EIT, 179 women, 529 new)
•>30,000 papers cited
•~5,000 pages
•~143,000 comments from > 2000 expert reviewers
Topics often in the news
• Balance of reports
• Selection of authors
• Grey literature
• Review process
• Confidentiality of drafts
• Approval process
• Errors
• www.ipcc.ch
Writing, Review and Acceptance
Peer reviewed and internationally available scientific technical and socio-economic
literature, manuscripts made available for IPCC review and selected non-peer
reviewed literature produced by other relevant institutions including industry
IPCC
approves
outline
Governments, organizations
nominate experts
Bureaux select Authors
Scoping
Authors
prepare 1st
-order
DRAFT
Expert Review
Authors
prepare 2nd
-
order
DRAFT
Government and
Expert Review
WG/IPCC
accepts/approves
report and SPM
Authors
prepare
FINAL
DRAFT
Final distribution
and Government
Review of SPM
Publication
of report
Topics often in the news
• Balance of reports
• Selection of authors
• Grey literature
• Review process
• Confidentiality of drafts
• Approval process
• Errors
• www.ipcc.ch
More on IPCC process
• www.ipcc.ch
• > News and Outreach
• >Outreach
• >Materials
• Factsheets
Future work of the IPCC
- Bigger role for developing countries
- Make reports more accessible
What next for the IPCC?
• 42nd
Session – October 2015, Dubrovnik tbc
- Election of new Bureau
• Meeting on communications – early 2016
• Preparing for the Sixth Assessment Report
Thank you – Questions?
jlynn@wmo.int
www.ipcc.ch
IPCC Working Group I, Figure SPM.1a
Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850-2012
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The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report - Rabat Media Workshop

  • 1. The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report Jonathan Lynn Rabat Media Workshop 4 May 2015 Photo © A. Eitzinger (CIAT)
  • 2. • ç © John Kudelka
  • 3. The role of the IPCC is … “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
  • 4. The role of the IPCC is … “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
  • 5. The role of the IPCC is … “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
  • 6. The role of the IPCC (continued) “IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
  • 7. The role of the IPCC (continued) “IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
  • 8. What are IPCC reports used for?
  • 9. What are IPCC reports used for?
  • 10. IPCC structure • UN supported • Intergovernmental (195 members)
  • 11. AR5 Synthesis Report What are the risks?What are the risks? What can be done?What can be done?
  • 12. IPCC structure • UN supported • Intergovernmental (195 members)
  • 13. IPCC reports Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)
  • 14. IPCC reports Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14) 1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report
  • 15. IPCC reports Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14) 1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012)
  • 16. IPCC reports Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14) 1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012) Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)
  • 17. IPCC reports Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14) 1992 supplementary report and 1994 special report Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012) Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice guidance (1995, 2006, 2013) Six technical papers (1996-2008)
  • 18. The first four assessment reports • FAR (1990) – led to UNFCCC • SAR (1995) – input for Kyoto Protocol • TAR (2001) – focused attention on impacts of climate change and need for adaptation • AR4 (2007) – input for decision on 2ºC limit; basis for post Kyoto Protocol agreement
  • 20. 2007 AR5 Synthesis Report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".
  • 21. Fifth Assessment Report (2013/14) AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 Synthesis Report
  • 22. Finding your way round the report
  • 23. AR5 statistics •836 authors from 85 countries •(incl 301 DC/EIT, 179 women, 529 new) •>30,000 papers cited •~5,000 pages •~143,000 comments from > 2000 expert reviewers
  • 24. Topics often in the news • Balance of reports • Selection of authors • Grey literature • Review process • Confidentiality of drafts • Approval process • Errors • www.ipcc.ch
  • 25. Writing, Review and Acceptance
  • 26. Peer reviewed and internationally available scientific technical and socio-economic literature, manuscripts made available for IPCC review and selected non-peer reviewed literature produced by other relevant institutions including industry IPCC approves outline Governments, organizations nominate experts Bureaux select Authors Scoping Authors prepare 1st -order DRAFT Expert Review Authors prepare 2nd - order DRAFT Government and Expert Review WG/IPCC accepts/approves report and SPM Authors prepare FINAL DRAFT Final distribution and Government Review of SPM Publication of report
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Topics often in the news • Balance of reports • Selection of authors • Grey literature • Review process • Confidentiality of drafts • Approval process • Errors • www.ipcc.ch
  • 36.
  • 37. More on IPCC process • www.ipcc.ch • > News and Outreach • >Outreach • >Materials • Factsheets
  • 38. Future work of the IPCC - Bigger role for developing countries - Make reports more accessible
  • 39. What next for the IPCC? • 42nd Session – October 2015, Dubrovnik tbc - Election of new Bureau • Meeting on communications – early 2016 • Preparing for the Sixth Assessment Report
  • 40. Thank you – Questions? jlynn@wmo.int www.ipcc.ch
  • 41.
  • 42. IPCC Working Group I, Figure SPM.1a Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850-2012
  • 43.
  • 44. The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report Jonathan Lynn New Delhi Media Workshop 5 August 2014
  • 45. The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report Jonathan Lynn Dhaka Media Workshop 6 August 2014
  • 46. The IPCC and the Fifth Assessment Report Jonathan Lynn Islamabad Media Workshop 8 August 2014
  • 47. What are IPCC reports used for?
  • 48. What are IPCC reports used for?
  • 49. What are IPCC reports used for?

Editor's Notes

  1. Kenya cabinet July 2014
  2. Kenya cabinet July 2014
  3. Why Japan, how many countries
  4. Why Japan, how many countries
  5. India cabinet May 2014
  6. Bangladesh cabinet June 2014
  7. Pakistan cabinet February 2014