A presentation on the outlook for Central and Eastern Europe after the global recession, delivered to a private equity firm\'s internal investor\'s conference held in Istanbul. May 2009

1. The “Great Deleveraging” and CEE: The Crisis and the Recovery By: Justin Patrie Head of Emerging Europe Analysis Country Risk & Financial Markets Business Monitor International [email_address]

2. CEE: The Outperformer Source: Statistical Agencies, BMI Real GDP Growth, %

4. Global Outlook Key Forecasts Source: Business Monitor International 85.00 75.00 60.00 52.00 49.00 97.06 Brent Crude 81.50 71.50 56.50 48.50 45.50 95.40 Opec basket Oil prices (average) 0.80 0.78 0.75 0.78 0.78 0.68 EUR/US$ 1.25 1.29 1.34 1.29 1.28 1.47 US$/EUR Exchange rates (average) 4.00 4.00 3.50 2.00 1.00 2.50 ECB refinancing rate 4.25 4.25 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 Fed funds rate Interest rates (year-end) 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 2.8 Eurozone 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.5 -0.9 3.8 USA Consumer inflation (average) 3.7 3.7 3.4 1.7 -2.5 2.3 World 7.6 7.6 7.9 6.8 5.6 9.0 China 2.0 2.3 1.9 0.7 -6.1 -0.7 Japan 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.2 -4.2 0.9 Eurozone 3.0 3.3 3.0 1.2 -3.3 1.1 USA Real GDP growth (%) 2013f 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008

5. The Great Deleveraging: Developed Markets Real GDP Growth, % Source: Business Monitor International, Statistics Agencies

8. Global Outlook: Quantitative Easing Reserves Held By US Depositary Institutions, % y-o-y Source: United States Federal Reserve

10. Global Outlook: Signs of a Bounce S&P Financials Index

12. US Housing Downturn To Slow PHOENIX LAS VEGAS

14. Inventory Drawdown Positive for H209 United States Trade and Manufacturing Inventories, % y-o-y

15. The Global Outlook: H109 Will Be The Trough US Real GDP Growth, % Annualized Source: Business Monitor International, BEA

17. Emerging Europe: The Underperformer Source: Business Monitor International Real GDP Growth, %

20. The Crisis in CEE: Current Account Deficits Source: Central Banks

21. The Crisis In CEE: Financial Accounts 2007 Financial Account Breakdown, % of GDP Source: Central Banks

22. The Crisis in CEE: External Debt Source: Central Banks

23. The Crisis in CEE: Loans to Deposits

26. CEE Crisis Will Be Deeper Than Asia 1998 Real GDP Growth, CEE (LHS) and Asia (RHS) Source: Business Monitor International, Statistical Agencies

28. CEE: Where’s The Risk? Source: Business Monitor International

29. Baltics: Double-Digit Contractions in 2009 Source: Statistical Agencies, Business Monitor International

30. Hungary: The CE Outlier Fiscal Deficits Source: Hungarian Ministry of Finance

31. Bulgaria/Romania: Crisis Risks Remain -3.8 -3.8 -4.1 -5.1 -4.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 -1.5 Fiscal Deficit, % GDP 50.4 57.2 61.2 56.2 42.4 40.3 37.5 35.5 31.6 External Debt, % GDP -4.9 -7.0 -7.9 -11.0 -12.4 -15.2 -11.0 -8.4 -9.1 Current Account, % GDP 4.7 3.7 4.0 4.5 7.9 4.8 6.7 9.0 11.9 Inflation, % ave 6,984 5,571 5,195 5,534 6,057 5,554 4,516 3,632 2,826 GDP per capita, EUR 2.3 2.5 0.0 -4.2 7.1 4.9 6.2 3.3 8.4 Real GDP, % y-o-y 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Romania 0.5 -1.2 -2.9 -2.9 3.0 4.5 3.5 2.3 1.7 Fiscal Deficit, % GDP 76.1 78.3 90.9 104.2 107.1 97.5 79.8 68.9 64.5 External Debt, % GDP -5.4 -9.2 -12.1 -15.5 -25.2 -25.2 -18.5 -12.4 -6.7 Current Account, % GDP 5.0 6.0 3.0 7.6 12.5 7.6 7.4 6.0 6.2 Inflation, % ave 5,924 5,481 5,128 5,359 6,424 5,187 4,125 3,530 3,145 GDP per capita, EUR 3.0 2.4 -1.5 -3.1 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.9 5.7 Real GDP, % y-o-y 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Bulgaria

32. Czech/Poland/Slovakia: Better Positioned Source: Statistics Agencies, Central Banks, Business Monitor International -3.6 -4.1 -4.2 -2.9 -6.6 -5.3 -7.1 -8.6 -7.8 C/A, % of GDP 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.8 3.0 1.9 4.3 2.8 7.5 Inflation, % ave 14,396 13,580 12,886 12,479 11,770 10,142 8,165 7,077 6,287 GDP per capita, EUR 3.5 3.0 1.3 -2.5 6.4 10.4 8.8 6.0 5.4 Real GDP, % y-o-y 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Slovakia -0.1 -0.5 -2.0 -3.5 -6.0 -4.8 -2.8 -1.2 -4.0 C/A, % of GDP 2.3 2.0 1.6 2.2 4.3 2.5 1.5 2.8 4.4 Inflation, % ave 10,806 9,553 7,940 7,477 8,614 8,085 7,123 6,392 5,320 GDP per capita, EUR 3.6 4.3 2.8 -2.7 4.9 6.6 6.2 3.6 5.3 Real GDP, % y-o-y 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Poland -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -3.0 -2.3 -3.0 -1.6 -4.7 C/A, % of GDP 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.5 4.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 2.6 Inflation, % ave 15,586 13,680 12,372 12,514 14,289 13,830 11,860 9,587 9,694 GDP per capita, EUR 4.0 3.3 1.1 -2.1 3.2 6.0 6.8 6.3 4.5 Real GDP, % y-o-y 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Czech Republic

33. The Crisis in CEE: Current Account Deficits Source: Central Banks

34. The Crisis in CEE: Loans to Deposits

35. Western Balkans: A Mixed Bag Source: Statistical Agencies, Central Banks, Business Monitor International -3.1 -3.4 -5.3 -3.6 1.2 0.0 5.7 3.6 1.0 -5.0 3.5 6.8 Slovenia -6.4 -9.2 -18.4 -16.9 4.3 5.7 10.7 6.5 0.1 -3.8 5.4 7.5 Serbia -9.4 -13.9 -27.8 -29.4 1.3 4.0 7.3 4.2 0.7 -5.8 8.1 10.7 Monten. -3.5 -4.5 -13.1 -3.0 1.7 0.2 8.3 2.3 1.5 -0.7 5.0 5.9 FYROM -6.3 -6.3 -10.9 -8.5 1.5 1.4 5.6 2.9 1.1 -3.2 2.4 5.6 Croatia -6.5 -9.0 -14.4 -10.4 2.5 2.7 7.9 1.8 1.5 -3.0 5.5 5.9 Bosnia -12.2 -13.3 -15.7 -10.3 2.4 2.1 3.2 2.9 2.0 -2.0 5.5 6.2 Albania 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 Current Account (% of GDP) Inflation (average) Real GDP Growth

36. The Sub-Regions Compared Source: Business Monitor International

39. This can be your title page Te ş ek ü r Edderim Business Monitor International [email_address]