The future of the academic information supply chain 04-2012

28th March 2012
UKSG Annual Conference

Endangered Species
Myths and Reality

Ian Middleton
Vice President & European General Manager

EBSCO Information Day 2012

Context
• The supply chain remains hugely
complex and highly dynamic

• Wide range of factors:

• evolving technology
• financial pressure
• economic climate
• research practices
• user behaviour
/expectations
• new service providers
• evolving roles
• changing business models
• new and emerging markets
• wider web
• and much more!


Survey of opinion leaders
• 141 colleagues invited
• 98 answers
• 65% response rate
• Qualitative and quantitative

• Academic librarians (26/32)

• Agents/intermediaries (13/31)

• Publishers (24/36)

• Consortia leaders (9/13)

• Other opinion leaders (20/29)
(consultants, trade associations, research
funders, software providers etc.)


Outcomes

• A series of white papers:
1. The Future Role of
the Academic Library
2. Access to Content:
Now and in Future
3. The Impact of Open Access
4. The Role of Subscription Agents
5. Future Forces for Change

• Available from EBSCO from April 30th

• Selected highlights in this presentation


The Future Role
of the Academic Library

The Future Role of the Academic Library

For the coming 3-5 years, academic libraries
will remain a necessary and important
component of universities?

21% 1%
Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree
78% Strongly disagree

Not sure


Thinking about the next 3-5 years, please
identify any significant changes you anticipate
in the role played by academic libraries


Key themes

General services

• Far less collection
development activity
• Far fewer print holdings
and services
• Less buying:
access not ownership
• Emphasis on tools for
search, discovery & access


Key themes

Faculty/Student
Support Services
• Managing research
outputs (papers and data)
• Providing innovative
learning space
• Information and
digital literacy training
• Creating digital
collections from local
resources & assets


Key themes

Technology

• Being adept with
channels and tools
native to users
• Integrating technology
into teaching and learning
• Being based more within
faculty/departments


Key themes

Open Access

• Managing article
processing charges and
OA budgets [Gold OA]
• Supporting academics to:
• create their own
OA journals
• get best value from
their funding
• The library as publisher e.g.
New on-campus OA journal


Access to Content:
Now and in Future

Access to Content: Now and in Future
The future of the big deals

As a means of optimising library budgets
the Big Deal has outlived its usefulness?

35%
30%
Strongly agree
14% Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
11% 10%
Strongly disagree
Not sure


Access models

For academic content, the subscription model
has outlived its usefulness?

42%
Strongly agree
22% 25% Somewhat agree
10% Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
1% Not sure


Access models

Within 3-5 years, access/acquisition triggered
by patron request will be the most common
purchase model for academic content?

41%
31% Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
4%
Not sure


Pricing models
who’s the fairest of them all?

Pricing based on one/more characteristics of purchasing
institution (e.g. FTEs; prior year spend etc.)?

49%

Strongly agree
28%
Somewhat agree
8% 8% Strongly disagree
Not sure


Pricing models

Pricing based on actual usage assessed
after a period of access?

38% 39%

Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
18%
Somewhat disagree
4%
Not sure


Pricing models

There are currently no fair methods
of pricing academic content?

36%

24% Strongly agree
14% 21% Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Not sure


We asked librarians only to comment
on a range of other factors which might
influence purchasing decisions


What else matters...?

Most Important
• Relevance to
research/teaching programmes
• Recent usage by faculty
and students
• Value for money Least Important
(however determined)
• Demand from faculty • Fit with existing collection

• Cost-per-use • Availability through patron-driven
access model
• Demand from students


The Impact of Open Access


In 3-5 years’ time, most academic content will
be available through one or more OA models?

49%

Strongly agree
26% Somewhat agree
4%
Strongly disagree
6%
Not sure


Open Access will disintermediate subscription
agents from the information supply chain
38%
33% Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

4% 11%
Strongly disagree

Not sure


Impact elsewhere…?

…possible disintermediation of
publishers?
78%

Agreed

13% Disagreed
10%
Not sure


Impact elsewhere…?

…possible disintermediation of
libraries?
76%

Agreed
18% Disagreed
6%
Not sure


In the coming 3-5 years, Open Access will
be the most significant force for change in
the academic information supply chain?

40%

24% Strongly agree
12% Somewhat agree
Not sure


Open Access: Themes

• OA will continue to grow
• Broad acceptance of
author pays (Gold OA)
• Some support for Green OA
but not universal
• Concerns about funding
(especially in humanities)
• Concerns about peer review
and quality


The Role of Subscription Agents


The Changing Supply Chain Environment

Pressure to make cost-savings is widespread
but felt most keenly by subscription agents?

40%
37%

23% Agreed

Disagreed

Not sure



Subscription agents continue to play an invaluable
role within the academic information supply chain?

77%

Agreed

Disagreed
10% 14%
Not sure



As digital content becomes widespread, agents become
increasingly irrelevant to library-publisher transactions?

53%
34%
Agreed

14% Disagreed

Not sure



As long as agents continue to develop value-added
services they will continue to have a role?

94%

Agreed
Disagreed
Not sure
6%
0%


Future Forces for Change


Colleagues were asked to rate a range
of factors as potential forces for change
in the coming 3-5 years

1. Pressure on library budgets
2. Pressure on teaching & research budgets
3. Govt./funding body mandates for funded
results to be available through open access
4. Mobile technology
5. China/India/emerging economies shaping publishers’
activities

Colleagues were asked to rate a range UKSG Annual Conference
of factors as potential forces for change
in the coming 3-5 years

Publishers Agents Consortia
1. Pressure on 1. Pressure on library budgets 1. Pressure on library budgets
library budgets 2. Mobile technology 2. Pressure on teaching & research
2. Pressure on teaching & 3. Pressure on teaching & research budgets
research budgets budgets 3. Govt./funding body mandates for
3. Gold open access 4. Falling student numbers funded results to be available
4. Mobile technology 5. Scholarly publishers increasing through open access
5. China/India/emerging the range of services 4. Green open access
economies shaping 5. China/India/emerging economies
publishers’ activities shaping publishers’ activities

Other opinion leaders Libraries
1. China/India/emerging economies shaping publishers’ 1. Pressure on library budgets
activities 2. Pressure on teaching & research budgets
2. Pressure on library budgets 3. Govt./funding body mandates for funded
3. Pressure on teaching & research budgets results to be available through open access
4. Govt./funding body mandates for funded results to be 4. Gold open access
available through open access 5. Green open access
5. More involvement in research comms. by small,
non-trad companies


Conclusions

Conclusions

Known knowns…

• Landscape hugely dynamic…and will
continue to be so

• In the West, the economy will remain
the issue foreseeably, pressurising:
• institutional funding (library,
research, teaching budgets)
• the entire academic information
supply chain

• Open access will continue to bring
change and opportunity, and (for some)
threat to survival

Conclusions

Evolution for most of us…
• Libraries: curating digital research data

• Publishers: growth beyond US/Europe
e.g. China, India, Brazil etc.

• Agents: as originators/curators of
metadata

• Content: nature/delivery/use shaped by
mobile technology

• Users: continually evolving behaviour
and demands

• Universities: increasingly competitive;
showcasing output

• Govts./Funders: mandates challenging
subscription paradigm

Conclusions

Revolution for some?
• Library as publisher (e.g. OA journals; data)
• Librarians as digital literacy experts
• Agent as (OA) fund manager
• Agent as manager of patron-driven
access and use
• Agents to become first and foremost
technology companies?
• Publishers as research partners
(e.g. Digital Science)

• Funding bodies as publishers (e.g. eLife)
• New players may surprise us all -
through acquisition, encroachment or
by seizing an opportunity first


Thank you
Our grateful thanks go to those
who kindly completed the survey.

Thanks to:
• Sarah Durrant,
Red Sage Consulting
(sarah@redsage.org)

• Delphine Dufour, Aude Sauer-Avargues
& Kevin Agostini
EBSCO Information Services


Thank you
Visit:
www.ebsco.com/whitepapers to download
any of the white papers in the series

The Future of the Academic
Information Supply Chain:
1. The Future of the Academic Library
2. Access to Content: Now and in Future
3. The Impact of Open Access
4. The Role of Subscription Agents
5. Future Forces for Change

Ian Middleton
Vice President & European General Manager

The future of the academic information supply chain 04-2012

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