The idea that “machines are coming to take our jobs” has been a concern for hundreds of years—at least since the industrialization of weaving in the early 18th Century, a technological leap that both raised productivity and fears that thousands of workers would be thrown out on the streets. Innovations and technological progress have caused disruption, but they have created more prosperity than they have destroyed. Yet today, we are riding a new wave of uncertainty as the pace of innovation continues to accelerate and technology affects every part of our lives.

1. The Future of Work ( my takeaways
from the course )
Felix Bolivar
fsfbolivar@gmail.com
synergixs.com
The Future of Work course on EDx
Artificial Intelligence will soon eliminate almost all meaningful jobs?
The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring
high levels of social interactions grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S.
labor force. Beginning in the 1990s, the labor market “hollowed out” as computers
substituted for labor in middle-skill routine tasks and complemented high-skilled labor, a
phenomenon referred as job polarization.
The skills and tasks that cannot be substituted away by automation are generally
complemented by it, and social interaction has, at least so far, proven difficult to automate.
Our ability to read and react to others is base on tacit knowledge, and computers are still
very poor substitutes for tasks where programmers don’t know “the rules”. Human interaction
requires a capacity that psychologists call theory of mind, the ability to attribute mental states
to others based on their behavior, or more colloquially to “put oneself into another’s shows”.

2. Case studies of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) implementation show that
computerization leads to reallocation of skilled workers into flexible, team-based settings that
facilitate adaptive responses and group problem solving, this shows a clear link between the
computerization of the labor market and the decline of routine work.
Reading the signals of others and reacting is an unconscious process, and skill in social
settings has evolved in humans over thousands or years. Human interaction in the
workplace involves team production, wtih workers playing off each other’s strengths and
adapting flexibly to changing circumstances. Such nonroutine interaction is at the heart of
the human advantage over machines.
3 myths about the future of work (and why they're not true) | Daniel Susskind
Meanwhile, the changing nature of work is generating fears about mass unemployment.
These trends are straining the relationships among citizens, firms, and governments across
the globe. Although some of these fears appear to be exaggerated, there are indeed
reasons to be concerned.
Do you wonder if the good fortune and opportunities that you’ve enjoyed in your
professional life will be available to your children, and to their children? At a time of
strong global economic growth, it may seem paradoxical that we face an existential
crisis around the future of work. But the pace of innovation is accelerating, and the
jobs of the future, in a few months or a few years will require specific, complex
skills. Human capital will become an ever more valuable resource.
In short, the changing nature of work, and how best to prepare people for the jobs
of the future are some of the toughest challenges countries face.
Technological developments in the digital era merit the injection of new
ideas into public debates about social inclusion - defined as improving the
ability, opportunity, and dignity of those most disadvantaged in society.
Two elements deserve special attention.
First, using technology, governments have new ways to reach the poor as well as others
who lack access to quality services or tools to manage risks. Many work informally in
low-productivity jobs without access to protections, making it difficult to escape or remain out
of poverty. Informality limits the reach of social insurance systems that are
based on formal earnings contributions declared to the state.
While the threat of imminent, widespread, technology-induced unemployment
is a chimera,jobs are currently being lost and will be lost to automation. But
technology also creates new opportunities and is constantly improving global living
standards. The world is better connected, aspirations are rising, and disparate voices
are more likely to be heard.

3. Second, the changing nature of work implies adjustment costs for workers. Technology has
varying impacts on skills and the demand for them in the labor market. Depending on the
technology, some skills (and the workers who possess them) are becoming more relevant
than others in the world of work. Advanced skills - such as complex problem-solving and
critical thinking - are becoming more valued in labor markets. People with these skills can
work more effectively with new technologies. Sociobehavioral skills - such as empathy,
teamwork, and conflict resolution - are also becoming more valuable in labor markets
because they cannot be easily replicated by machines.
The skills needed for work are changing, literally, every day. New jobs will
require specific skills - a combination of technological know - how, problem solving,
and criticaI-thinking skills, as well as soft skills such as perseverance, collaboration,
and empathy. That means countries must invest much more - and more effectively -
in their people to build human capital.
Investing in human capital is the key mechanism to ensure that the next generation
is ready for the changing nature of work
Unfortunately too many countries are under-investing in these critical areas - especially in
the early formative years of childhood, when the ability to learn new skills quickly is
decisively molded. When countries don’t invest to build human capital, it puts successive
generations - especially the poorest - at a severe disadvantage, exacerbates
inequalities that already exist, and threatens to create instability when rising
aspirations are met with frustration instead of opportunity.
We should ensure that opportunity, like talent, is distributed equally
throughout society. One of the primary ways we can ensure this is to protect people
through social assistance and insurance systems that fit with the changing nature of

4. work. The current model is broken in most developing countries and looks
increasingly out of date for most advanced economies as well.
Social contracts are also about inclusion, which means that the wealthy have to pay
their share of taxes. With insufficient tax revenues, governments can’t deliver the
current social contract. Countries in every region must do more to stop tax
avoidance, and the only way they can, in the words of leaders of the world’s 20
largest economies, is to "put an end to the divorce between the location of profits
and the location of real activities.
Public spending has to become more efficient, and additional sources of revenue have to be
identified to enhance social inclusion. Aspirations, especially among the youth, are rising, in
part due to social media and urbanization. When aspirations are met, they foster opportunity
and prosperity. But when aspirations are unfulfilled, they can lead to frustration, or even
unrest, in some countries.
Creating a new social contract
Equality of opportunity plays a big role in the changing nature of work.
Investing in early childhood development can foster opportunity. One estimate suggests that
expansion of early childhood development policies in the United States could reduce
inequality by 7 percent and increase intergenerational income mobility by 30 percent.
Equality of opportunity also means boosting social protections, including social assistance
and insurance, in ways that are compatible with work. These elements of the social contract
echo the three freedoms featured by Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen
in Development as Freedom: political freedoms and transparency in relations

5. between people, freedom of opportunity, and economic protection from abject poverty
Beyond some core elements, any new social contract would have to be tailored to its
particular country context. One clear area of customization is related to demographic trends.
By 2050, more than half of global population growth will have occurred in Sub-Saharan
Africa, where the annual growth rates of the working-age population are projected to exceed
2.7 percent. By contrast, the populations of East Asia and the Pacific are aging: more than
211 million people over the age of 65 live in this region, accounting for 36 percent of the
global population in this age group. By 2040, the working-age population will have shrunk by
10–15 percent in China, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand.
Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
would therefore have to be especially responsive to the needs of the large
youth cohorts entering the labor market to ensure the sustainability of the
social contract. Social contracts in Eastern Europe and East Asia would also
need to create mechanisms to finance the protection and care of the elderly
in a sustainable manner.
A society with equality of opportunity is often defined as a society that
manages to give all its members an equal chance to attain economic and
social well-being. However, this happens only if all members of society have
access to some guaranteed social minimum, including health care, education, and social
protection.
A new social contract should seek to level the playing field for acquiring skills. The most
direct way to provide fairness is to support early childhood development.
Guaranteeing that every child has access to adequate nutrition, health, education, and
protection, particularly in the earliest years of life, ensures a
solid foundation for developing skills in the future. Because the acquisition
of skills is cumulative, the returns to early investments are the highest.

6. Universal Basic Income
The new social contract would also include elements of social protection. The increased
risks encountered in the changing nature of work call
for adjustments to worker protection. A new social contract could provide
a minimum income, combined with basic universal social insurance, that
is decoupled from how or where people work.
Universal basic income is an unconditional cash transfer to everyone in a geographical
political territory on the regular long term basis.
Currently there is renewed interest in this policy. For example, Barack Obama said that
given advances in artificial intelligence many jobs will disappear and at the same time we’ll
get wealthier. So the universal basic income should be considered as part of a new social
compact.
One objection to a Universal Basic Income is that it will stop people from working.
Because hey if you got all these money for nothing, why should you go work?
However, research finds that there is little to no effect on work from having such a policy.
Another common objection to universal basic income
is that it would increase spending on drugs and alcohol, but the research does not support
this claim.
Preparing for and adapting to the changing nature of work require a
strong social contract. While the precise components of such contracts may
vary, it is important that they ensure the appropriate investments in education and social
protection. Yet sustaining renewed action in these sectors
calls for substantial fiscal resources. A range of financing options is available

7. to policy makers, the exploitation of which would require careful technical
assessments, combined with political leadership at both the national and
global levels.