Inaugural Professorial lecture by Greg Marsden, Director of the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds. Held on 18 March 2014 www.its.leeds.ac.uk/about/events/inaugural-lectures2014 The lecture explores the future of transport policy. Albert Einstein once said “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them”. This talk asks whether Einstein was right. Will the current policy direction really deliver a better future? If not, what do we have to rethink to make a difference?

1. Inaugural Lecture
Professor Greg Marsden
18 March 2014

2. “We can't solve
problems by
using the same
kind of thinking
we used when
we created
them.”
Georgios Kollidas -Shutterstock.com

3. testing-Shutterstock.com
89% of lost time is in urban areas – The Eddington Review

4. ‘New’ Challenges: Climate Change
Source: Network Rail
Transport contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions - IEA

5. 15 of our largest urban areas will not meet safe air quality
standards by 2020

6. Road fatalities are still the leading cause of death for 5-19 year olds

7. 28.5% of the UK population do not get 30 minutes moderate exercise
PER WEEK!!!

8. A characterization of Problem
ImportanceImportance
Time
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010->
Economy & Congestion
Air quality
Climate Mitigation
Resilience
Safety

9. The same kind of thinking...
How we think
about demand
Infrastructure
as main solution
Technological
Optimism

10. The demand for travel

11. Investment for growth

12. A New Realism
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 congestion Reference Case
2031
Infrastructure
schemes only
2031
Infrastructure
schemes & road
user charges
2031
Infrastructure
schemes, road
user charges &
behavioural
change 2031
Wastedvehiclehoursperyear(000,000s)

13. Curious Trends

14. Or more of the same?
Image Courtesy of Professor Phil Goodwin

16. Technological Optimism

17. The Role of the State

18. Image from Johnson et al., 2012
Not connected directly but....
RAC Foundation (2012)

19. Source: Phil Goodwin

20. Lifecourse

21. Seasons
0
50
100
150
200
250
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Mediandailytotalcountofcyclists
Source: Sustrans

23. Concluding comments