A short talk given in London in January 2016 highlighting some of the key health and healthcare related insights from the Future Agenda workshops. Mixing views from around the world it looks at public health issues, the increasing role of digital, changes to the healthcare system, the ageing challenge, financing health and where global answers may emerge from.

1. The
Future
of
Health
and
Healthcare
|
The
Emerging
View
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
Dr.
Tim
Jones
|
Programme
Director
|
14
Jan
2016

2. Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul0ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
beJer
informed
and
s0mulate
innova0on.

3. Looking
Forwards
Organisa0ons
increasingly
want
to
iden0fy
and
understand
both
the
an0cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beJer
prepared
for
the
future.

4. Future
Agenda
1.0
Top
Insights
for
2020
From
the
2010
program,
52
key
insights
on
the
next
decade
were
shared
widely
and
have
been
extensively
used
by
organisa0ons
around
the
world.
Health
was
a
key
issue
discussed
in
2010
and
has
grown
since.

5. Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
has
doubled
the
face-­‐to-­‐face
interac0on
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
25
TOPICS
35
COUNTRIES
120
WORKSHOPS
5000
ORGANISATIONS

6. Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
second
version
of
the
Future
Agenda
program
took
place
during
2015
and
addressed
over
20
topics
via
120
events
in
45
ci0es
in
35
countries
in
partnership
with
around
50
core
hosts.
Ageing
CiOes
Company
ConnecOvity
Data
EducaOon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work

7. The
CertainOes

8. Imbalanced
PopulaOon
Growth
A
growing
popula0on
adds
another
billion
people
but
it
is
also
rapidly
ageing:
A
child
born
next
year
will
live
6
months
longer
than
one
born
today.
While
migra0on
helps
to
rebalance
some
socie0es,
dependency
ra0os
challenge
all.

9. Everything
Connected
By
2025
over
1
trillion
sensors
are
connected
to
mul0ple
networks:
Everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
connec0on
has
one.
We
deliver
10,000x
more
data
100x
more
effec0vely
but
need
to
make
sense
of
the
informa0on
that
flows.

10. ShiSing
Power
and
Influence
The
centre
of
gravity
of
economic
power
con0nues
shi_ing
eastwards,
back
to
where
it
was
200
years
ago.
Recent
superpowers
seek
to
moderate
the
pace
of
change
but
the
reality
of
popula0on
and
resource
loca0ons
are
immoveable.

11. The
Future
of
Health
and
Healthcare
|
The
Emerging
View
This
is
an
edit
of
what
was
heard
from
mul0ple
expert
voices
around
the
world
–
on
the
future
of
health
and
healthcare,
how
it
is
changing,
what
is
driving
this
change
and
how
it
may
evolve
over
the
next
decade.

12. Air
Quality
As
more
experience
asthma
and
other
breathing
difficul0es,
urban
air
quality
becomes
a
visible
issue
and
a
major
catalyst
for
change
–
in
transport
policy,
in
energy
source
and
in
city
design.

13. Basic
SanitaOon
Despite
major
ini0a0ves,
basic
sanita0on
is
a
gap
for
many
and
prevents
wider
social
progress:
Female
educa0on
stops
at
puberty,
open
public
defeca0on
con0nues,
water
is
contaminated
and
public
health
suffers
as
a
consequence.

14. Urban
Obesity
Mass
urbanisa0on,
reduced
ac0vity
and
poor
diets
are
accelera0ng
the
rise
of
obesity.
As
half
popula0on
is
overweight,
levels
of
obesity
in
ci0es
are
growing
fast
and
the
associated
healthcare
burden
will
account
for
5%
of
global
GDP.

15. Reducing
Food
Waste
Postharvest
losses
of
foods
in
developing
countries
can
amount
to
30-­‐50%
of
produc0on.
In
developed
countries
a
similar
propor0on
is
wasted:
Minimising
this
loss,
that
could
feed
3
billion
people,
is
driven
by
beJer
data
collec0on.

16. Data’s
Impact
on
Health
BeJer
use
of
data
and
technology
has
the
power
to
improve
health,
transforming
the
quality
and
reducing
the
cost
of
health
and
care
services.
It
can
give
pa0ents
more
control
over
their
health
and
empower
carers.

17. Digital
Autonomy
Increasing
access
to
more
personal
and
group
data
allows
individuals
to
take
informed
views
on
their
health.
As
informa0on
is
decoupled
from
the
professions,
the
public
become
more
specific
about
their
needs.

18. Data
PrioriOsaOon
An
increasingly
digital
healthcare
system
is
driven
by
access
to
credible
data
that
is
priori0sed
above
the
noise.
The
value
of
such
key
data
increases
as
its
ability
to
unlock
opportuni0es
and
improve
diagnosis
rises.

19. A
Data
Marketplace
Data
is
a
currency,
it
has
a
value
and
a
price,
and
therefore
requires
a
market
place.
An
ecosystem
for
trading
data
is
emerging
and
anything
that
is
informa0on
is
represented
in
a
new
data
marketplace.

20. Universal
Healthcare
Data
Access
Informa0on
silos
are
connected
via
third
par0es
able
to
unify,
mine
and
discover
new
insights.
Integrated
public
and
private
datasets
provide
holis0c
views
of
the
individual
and
value
shi_s
to
decision-­‐making
analy0cs.

21. Connected
PredicOon
We
move
from
disparate,
under-­‐u0lized
data
sources
to
real-­‐0me
synthesis
of
mul0ple
data
plaforms
with
improved
accuracy
and
speed.
Predic0ve
analy0cs
and
gene0c
profiling
drive
hyper-­‐personaliza0on
and
early
ac0on.

22. Personalised
Healthcare
For
the
privileged
few
with
access,
personalised
healthcare
tailored
around
individual
medical
and
pyscho-­‐social
needs
provides
therapies
that
are
beJer
aligned
with
specific
rather
than
generic
profiles.

23. The
Rise
of
Machines
The
growth
in
the
intelligence
and
capabili0es
of
machines
presents
both
a
threat
and
an
opportunity.
Greater
automa0on
frees
up
0me,
but
also
has
the
poten0al
to
threaten
more
jobs
in
managerial
or
administra0ve
roles.

24. Non-­‐Linear
EducaOon
Paths
Building
on
the
success
of
open
courses,
there
will
be
a
rise
in
non-­‐linear
educa0on
paths.
Success
will
be
re-­‐defined
to
include
self-­‐actualisa0on
and
micro-­‐badging
will
gain
credibility.
Interna0onal
benchmarks
will
emerge.

25. Lifespan
Limits
On
a
global
scale,
life
expectancies
in
developed
regions
are
con0nuing
to
rise
in
the
21st
century
and,
although
most
people
assume
that
there
are
biological
limits
on
life
span,
so
far
there
is
liJle
evidence
that
we
are
approaching
them.

26. Quality
End
of
Life
As
more
seek
to
live
longer
but
die
fast,
making
the
most
of
the
end
of
our
lives
is
a
growing
concern.
Being
healthier
for
longer
and
needing
to
work
longer
combine
to
be
economically
and
socially
more
ac0ve
in
later
years.

27. ShiSing
Values
As
the
system
comes
under
greater
stress,
old
priori0es
are
rejected
and
an
improved
approach
is
adopted.
Financial
metrics
are
balanced
with
those
beJer
reflec0ng
society’s
values
around
happiness,
health
and
well-­‐being.

28. ShiSing
Risk
and
Responsibility
Business
becomes
more
ac0vely
engaged
in
the
wellbeing
of
its
employees
and
society.
Greater
responsibility
for
health
is
incen0vised
by
tax
breaks
and
reimbursements
designed
to
share
risk,
with
lessons
taken
from
elsewhere.

29. Sustainable
Healthcare
With
limited
resources,
rising
demand
and
escala0ng
costs,
decoupling
healthcare
spend
from
economic
growth
is
a
global
challenge.
A
more
sustainable,
integrated
model
may
emerge
from
beyond
the
US/EU.

30. Sustainable
Healthcare
With
limited
resources,
rising
demand
and
escala0ng
costs,
decoupling
healthcare
spend
from
economic
growth
is
a
global
challenge.
A
more
sustainable,
integrated
model
may
emerge
from
beyond
the
US/EU.

31. Sustainable
Healthcare
With
limited
resources,
rising
demand
and
escala0ng
costs,
decoupling
healthcare
spend
from
economic
growth
is
a
global
challenge.
A
more
sustainable,
integrated
model
may
emerge
from
beyond
the
US/EU.
0"
1000"
2000"
3000"
4000"
5000"
6000"
7000"
8000"
9000"
0" 5000" 10000" 15000" 20000" 25000" 30000" 35000" 40000" 45000" 50000"
Healthcare)Spend)per)Capita)vs)GDP)Per)Capita)
Australia"
Brazil"
China"
France"
Germany"
India"
Japan"
South"Africa"
UK"
US"
GDP
Per
Capita
PPP
(Constant
2005
USD)
Healthcare
Spend
Per
Capita
PPP
(Constant
2005
USD)

32. IncenOves
in
Flux
Budgetary
pressures
con0nue
and
reimbursement
models
will
need
to
change.
There
is
greater
emphasis
on
paying
healthcare
providers
based
on
measurable
outcomes,
rather
than
simply
for
the
number
of
procedures
they
perform.

33. CollecOve
AcOon
to
Control
Chronic
Disease
To
stem
the
runaway
costs
of
trea0ng
chronic
diseases,
mul0ple
stakeholders
collec0vely
seek
to
halt
key
condi0ons:
Remote
monitoring,
educa0onal
programmes
and
focused
budgets
are
all
integrated
around
common
aims.

34. EnOtlement
is
not
Universal
The
implica0ons
for
some
are
clear:
we
need
a
different
healthcare
model,
we
need
technology
to
really
deliver
improvements
at
scale
and
at
low
cost
and
to
start
reducing
the
level
of
cover
to
a
good
propor0on
of
some
popula0ons.

35. Healthcare
for
All
Globally
healthcare
is
already
well
over
a
$6
trillion
industry,
but
nearly
70%
of
the
world
popula0on
does
not
receive
decent
healthcare
services.
We
need
a
revolu0on
in
order
to
service
the
en0re
market.

36. Sources
of
Global
SoluOons
Global
healthcare
affordability
will
not
come
from
the
Unites
States
…
but
rather
from
those
na0ons
of
the
world
that
have
liJle
today
and
have
no
choice
but
to
perform
at
the
highest
levels
possible
in
the
future.

37. Future
Agenda
84
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