This paper analyses the evolution of public sector expenditure and public sector employment in the United Kingdom before and during the recent economic crisis. Public sector has come to a moment when significant transformations had to be done, both from a structural and functional point of view. This paper sets the economic, political and social framework in which the process of reorganization took place following the 2008-2010 economic crisis and discusses a series of factors that determined the UK government to undertake these measures. The aim of the research is to provide a complete diagnosis of how public expenditure and employment evolved before the recent economic downturn and describe the functional relationship between public employment size and its costs.
Abstract: The paper examines the impact of public sectoral expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2013. It was observed that the growth of government expenditure has not fully felt by the economy. The econometric methodology employed is the ARDL model and results show that while the impact of government expenditure on administration and debt servicing were positive on economic growth in the long and short run, expenditure on economic and social sectors has negative impact. We argue that this may not be unconnected with the high level of corruption prevalent in the public sector where funds that are meant for provision or maintenance of social-economic activities like agriculture, roads, transportations, schools and hospitals are diverted for personal use. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test show the model is stable as neither of them cross the 5% boundary. The paper recommended that government should increase expenditure to the social and economic sectors while debts or debt servicing should be reduced. Also, corruption so prevalent in the public sector must be minimized if cannot be eradicated.
The present moment is extremely serious. The future of Brazil is threatened with the dismantling of Brazilian engineering. In order to overcome this, there is an urgent need to mobilize representatives of engineering professionals under the leadership of CONFEA / CREAs to build a strong alliance in defense of national engineering involving engineers, workers in general, the companies committed to the generation of employment, besides universities and technology centers. This struggle should not be taken only by the engineering professionals, but also by the entire Brazilian people.
Analysis of Public Investment Expenditure on Economic Growth in WAEMU Countriesinventionjournals
Public investment expenditure plays an important role in the economy to produce goods and services needed for economic development. This study analyzes the influence of public investment spending on the economic growth of the WAEMU zone. The study considers a linear approach through individual fixed effects models with Beck-Katz and Driscoll-Kraay corrections, the spatial autocorrelation model (SAC) and the longterm model (DOLS). The empirical results of the study using panel data covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that public investment spending can promote economic growth in WAEMU countries when they are allocated in decreasing order to Education, health, public investment in basic road infrastructure and agriculture. However, they are also likely to slow it down when they focus on military spending, even though their primary objective is to ensure security for economic development. Finally, the study recommends that policy makers in WAEMU countries refocus their public expenditure policies in key sectors of development, notably human capital, in order to ensure a multiplier effect of public spending on economic growth and strengthen institutions Democracy to ensure their independence through their interdependence.
The measures taken by the Michel Temer government are timid because the Constitutional Amendment Bill (PEC 241) does not solve the problem of public accounts. No measures were proposed by the government Michel Temer to combat the economic stagnation that tends to deepen in the next years. PEC 241 and the program of concessions for private sector participation in investments in the country's logistics infrastructure are insufficient to create the environment conducive to private investment at the moment in Brazil. Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like this at the moment there is an imperative need to plan national development. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the resumption of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of retaking of economic growth.
Abstract: The paper examines the impact of public sectoral expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2013. It was observed that the growth of government expenditure has not fully felt by the economy. The econometric methodology employed is the ARDL model and results show that while the impact of government expenditure on administration and debt servicing were positive on economic growth in the long and short run, expenditure on economic and social sectors has negative impact. We argue that this may not be unconnected with the high level of corruption prevalent in the public sector where funds that are meant for provision or maintenance of social-economic activities like agriculture, roads, transportations, schools and hospitals are diverted for personal use. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test show the model is stable as neither of them cross the 5% boundary. The paper recommended that government should increase expenditure to the social and economic sectors while debts or debt servicing should be reduced. Also, corruption so prevalent in the public sector must be minimized if cannot be eradicated.
The present moment is extremely serious. The future of Brazil is threatened with the dismantling of Brazilian engineering. In order to overcome this, there is an urgent need to mobilize representatives of engineering professionals under the leadership of CONFEA / CREAs to build a strong alliance in defense of national engineering involving engineers, workers in general, the companies committed to the generation of employment, besides universities and technology centers. This struggle should not be taken only by the engineering professionals, but also by the entire Brazilian people.
Analysis of Public Investment Expenditure on Economic Growth in WAEMU Countriesinventionjournals
Public investment expenditure plays an important role in the economy to produce goods and services needed for economic development. This study analyzes the influence of public investment spending on the economic growth of the WAEMU zone. The study considers a linear approach through individual fixed effects models with Beck-Katz and Driscoll-Kraay corrections, the spatial autocorrelation model (SAC) and the longterm model (DOLS). The empirical results of the study using panel data covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that public investment spending can promote economic growth in WAEMU countries when they are allocated in decreasing order to Education, health, public investment in basic road infrastructure and agriculture. However, they are also likely to slow it down when they focus on military spending, even though their primary objective is to ensure security for economic development. Finally, the study recommends that policy makers in WAEMU countries refocus their public expenditure policies in key sectors of development, notably human capital, in order to ensure a multiplier effect of public spending on economic growth and strengthen institutions Democracy to ensure their independence through their interdependence.
The measures taken by the Michel Temer government are timid because the Constitutional Amendment Bill (PEC 241) does not solve the problem of public accounts. No measures were proposed by the government Michel Temer to combat the economic stagnation that tends to deepen in the next years. PEC 241 and the program of concessions for private sector participation in investments in the country's logistics infrastructure are insufficient to create the environment conducive to private investment at the moment in Brazil. Government leaders in Brazil need to understand that in an exceptional situation like this at the moment there is an imperative need to plan national development. The Brazilian government should elaborate an economic plan that contributes to the resumption of the development of Brazil that indicates for the population and for the productive sectors a perspective of retaking of economic growth.
This work shows the various stages the economy of Cameroon went through since independence. It is an analytical eye and element to learn more about this state
We find that low-wage job creation was not simply a characteristic of the first phase of the recovery, but rather a pattern that has persisted for more than four years now. Deep into the recovery, job growth is still heavily concentrated in lower-wage industries.
Lebanon is socially and economically a liberal country, where service sector of the economy is most developed. The country is considered a “piece of investment and touristic heaven” for neighboring Arabian countries, mainly because of its natural and touristic capital, its developed banking sectors, its hybrid mix of Eastern and Western cultures and its geographic location serving as a transit line for trade between Europe and the Middle East.
In the article the socioeconomic history of Lebanon was discussed by four phases:
1. The period of first independence in 1943-1975
2. The civil war of 1975-1990.
3. Post-war recovery period from 1990-2000
4. Current socioeconomic and political situation 2000-Present
This work shows the various stages the economy of Cameroon went through since independence. It is an analytical eye and element to learn more about this state
We find that low-wage job creation was not simply a characteristic of the first phase of the recovery, but rather a pattern that has persisted for more than four years now. Deep into the recovery, job growth is still heavily concentrated in lower-wage industries.
Lebanon is socially and economically a liberal country, where service sector of the economy is most developed. The country is considered a “piece of investment and touristic heaven” for neighboring Arabian countries, mainly because of its natural and touristic capital, its developed banking sectors, its hybrid mix of Eastern and Western cultures and its geographic location serving as a transit line for trade between Europe and the Middle East.
In the article the socioeconomic history of Lebanon was discussed by four phases:
1. The period of first independence in 1943-1975
2. The civil war of 1975-1990.
3. Post-war recovery period from 1990-2000
4. Current socioeconomic and political situation 2000-Present
3 Top Factors Content Marketers Should Be Aware of In 2017Saba SEO
With all of the changes predicted to affect online marketing in the near future, content marketing isn't going to become any less significant. Content marketers can, however, expect things to become even more challenging than they have been before.
Dr. Lanin Chen Resident Dept. of Ophthalmology, D. Y. Patil Medical College, Dr. Nita Shanbhag Head of Dept. of Ophthalmology, D. Y. Patil Medical College Navi Mumbai.
DUCAT offers exclusive Oracle 11g Development Training & certification program with live project by industry expert In Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad, Greater Noida, Jaipur
Una didáctica para la asignatura ciencias para comtemporáneo.
La inclusión de la asignatura Ciencias para el Mundo Contemporáneo en el Bachillerato puede suponer un cambio profundo en la enseñanza de las Ciencias. No obstante, la presencia curricular no es suficiente y es preciso clarificar cuestiones importantes: qué se pretende con esta asignatura, qué tipo de contenidos aborda, cómo debe enfocarse el trabajo en el aula, etc. Creemos que, en este momento, es necesario conocer propuestas y actividades concretas que clarifiquen y orienten al profesorado que debe enseñarla. Nuestro trabajo aborda el proceso de planificación de una unidad didáctica: “El uso de los recursos energéticos”. Este proceso consta de seis tareas: análisis del contenido de enseñanza; análisis de los problemas de aprendizaje de los mismos; análisis del contexto; determinación de objetivos de enseñanza; establecimiento de una secuencia de actividades; y selección de estrategias de evaluación
Büyük Veri, Küme Hesaplama, Dağıtık Dosya Sistemi, Yüksek Performanslı Kümeleme, Apache Spark ve Streaming Modülünü içeren bir sunum.
Apache Spark’ın küme hesaplamaları için kullanımının anlatıldığı sunumda, Java API ile temel bir uygulama örneği gösteriliyor ve beraberinde gelen “Streaming Modülü” ile Twitter’dan canlı veri çekerek işlenmesi anlatılıyor.
2012 Rescaling of Planning and its Interface with Economic Development - puga...Lee Pugalis
Abstract
Following the installation of a UK Coalition Government in 2010, ways of governing the spatial organisation of development have undergone far-reaching change in England. Within a context of austerity following the abolition of regional policy machinery, and an onerous national target framework, localities are entering a new phase of incentivised development. Consequently, Local Planning Authorities are having to transfer part of their focus from government’s ‘top-down’ requirements, as they come to embrace more adequately ‘bottom-up’ neighbourhood scale plans. Analysing the path of change, especially at the interface between planning and economic development, the paper draws attention to the dilemmas arising from these crucial scale shifts, and explores the potential of sub-national governance entities – Local Enterprise Partnerships – to help resolve the strategic co-ordination of planning.
Sub-national economic development: Where do we go from here? Pugalis 2011Lee Pugalis
The UK’s Liberal Democrat–Conservative (Lib–Con) Coalition Government has been quickly dismantling New Labour’s policy framework since it gained political control in May 2010. Contemplating how this transition might play out and the impact upon regeneration policy, a preliminary map of the road from the incumbent English Regional Development Agencies to myriad Local Enterprise Partnerships is sketched out. The analytic interpretations are based on insights ‘in the field’ over the past decade and grounded in policy ‘chatter’. Reflecting on the importance of timing, resource availability and the policy vacuum arising between localities and national government, attention is drawn to countless questions that remain unanswered. Further, the Lib–Con’s sub-national economic policy architecture is demonstrated as remaining very much work in progress. The paper highlights that the current transitional period is likely to be disorderly and possibly ineffective: deconstruction is all well and good if the alternative reconstructions offer added value, but the potential to lose out is significant. While hope is expressed with a localism agenda which could potentially empower localities to devise unique policy solutions administered by tailored spatial configurations, it is cautioned that new spatio-institutional ‘fixes’ may open up new issues just as old ones are closed off. A policy story still being written, the analysis is of broader international appeal. Consequently, those plying their trade outside England can reflect on this and act accordingly the next time a new (and presumably better) policy innovation is proposed
THE FUNCTION OF THE URBAN INFORMAL SECTOR IN EMPLOYMENT Dr Lendy Spires
During 1990’s, “informal economy” seems have lost the interest and urgency characteristic among social scientist during the 1970’s and 1980’s. However, the persistent economic and social downturn that characterized several Latin American countries, including Colombia, during the last decade resurrected interest in the informal economy. The term informal economy1 covers a set of heterogeneous activities, from unpaid labor to any number of unregulated salaried jobs.
This broad range of activities has made it difficult for analysts of the informal sector to agree on its definition. However, there is consensus on two broads points: first, the informal economy is part of the economy at large, which determines its main characteristics and on which it depends; and second, the informal economy is largely defined by activities outside state regulation (Portes, 1994; Broad, 2000). In spite of these two broad agreements, the reasons for the existence of unregulated activities and their function in employment differ and then the implications in terms of labor policies also differ. Some analysts consider the informal sector as the disadvantaged segment of a dualistic labor market and see today’s expansion of the informal economy as part of a more general deterioration of labor market conditions (Tokman, 1992; Klein and Tokman, 2000).
Others view informal economy as unregulated income-earning activities closely related to the formal sector (Portes, 1997). Yet others see in the informal sector signs of incipient entrepreneurship and an escape from state regulation (Maloney, 2000). For others analysts, informalization is not a recent phenomenon but it is a long term, large scale, and systemic phenomenon of the capitalist world-economy (Tabak, 2000). The issue of understanding the function of the informal sector in employment is essential for the design and evaluation of labor policies.
It becomes particular relevant to the Latin American region since most of the countries applied “neoliberal” reforms during the last decade that affected the labor market environment. The globalization of the economy, the privatization process and the flexibilization of labor markets has opened debates on establishing common 1 Informal economy and informal sector are interchangeable used here. labor standards in regional free trade agreements and on the need to regulate labor markets to ensure neat international competition (Maloney, 1997; Klein and Tokman, 2000). For the design of those and other labor policies it is necessary to understand if the informal sector functions as a buffer for employment or it is closely integrated to formal employment.
The paper examines the impact of public sectoral expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2013. It was observed that the growth of government expenditure has not fully felt by the economy. The econometric methodology employed is the ARDL model and results show that while the impact of government expenditure on administration and debt servicing were positive on economic growth in the long and short run, expenditure on economic and social sectors has negative impact. We argue that this may not be unconnected with the high level of corruption prevalent in the public sector where funds that are meant for provision or maintenance of social-economic activities like agriculture, roads, transportations, schools and hospitals are diverted for personal use. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test show the model is stable as neither of them cross the 5% boundary. The paper recommended that government should increase expenditure to the social and economic sectors while debts or debt servicing should be reduced. Also, corruption so prevalent in the public sector must be minimized if cannot be eradicated.
Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Nig...iosrjce
This study has examined the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using time
series data for the period 1970-2012. Secondary data were sourced from the CBN, NBS, journals, text books
etc. The adopted model was fitted with three variables: real GDP, capital and recurrent expenditure. The tools
of analysis were the ADF unit root test and ordinary least square multiple regression accompanied by pairwise
Granger causality test. The major objective of this study is to analyse the impact as well as direction of
causality between the fiscal variables and economic growth. All the variables included in the model are
stationary at level. Empirical findings from the study show that there is positive and insignificant relationship
between capital expenditure and economic growth while recurrent expenditure had a significant positive impact
on economic growth. Also, Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional causality running from the
fiscal variables to economic growth in validation of the Keynesian theory. Consequently, the study
recommended more allocation of resources for recurrent purposes as well; government should establish the
body that will monitor contract awarding process of capital projects closely, to guard against over estimation of
project cost and stealing of public funds.
The Financial Recession that hit British economy recently resulted in severe unemployment and job loss across UK. The Recession did have many implications on the British labour market. This paper will have an insight into the implications of Recession on graduate labour market in UK. The data provided by the Association of Graduate Recruiters, Office for National Statistics and High Fliers Research Limited on graduate recruitment market in UK was used to carry out the study. The study will be based on the comparison of graduate recruitment market in the years 2009 and 2010. The comparison of graduate recruitment market will be based on the analysis of graduate labour market for the years 2009 and 2010. This paper will try predicting whether the year 2010 is a favourable year for graduates or not. It will also have an insight into the attitude of students towards recession and will provide necessary recommendations.
No to recessive economic adjustement of brazilian government of michel temerFernando Alcoforado
The Michel Temer government adopted a recessive economic policy seeking to limit government spending with its proposal for amendment to the Constitution (PEC 241-2016) sent to Brazilian Congress. The measures proposed in PEC 241-2016 define new “ceiling” for public spending which will limit the prior year spending adjusted for inflation and this fact will cause public health and education spending are frozen in real terms going to be just corrected by inflation. It should be noted that with low consumption (C), low investment (I) and low government spending (G), the economy tends to further deepen the recession and make it harder to return to economic growth. To combat the economic recession, the Michel Temer government should, in the short term, increase government spending to compensate the drastic reduction occurred in household consumption and private investment.
New directions in economic development localism act bentley and pugalisLee Pugalis
Since entering office in 2010, a distinct grammar of localism has pervaded the UK Government’s philosophical outlook, which has inflected localist policy discourses and practice. Now that the Coalition administration’s ‘local’ economic development policy is becoming a little clearer, it is timely to consider the implications of this new grammar for the scope, organisation and mobilisation of economic development interventions. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to trace new and emergent directions in economic development through a focus on the 2011 Localism Act, which applies to England and Wales. The paper interprets these changes through a localist conceptual prism, which helps to refract different varieties of localism. The findings raise some serious concerns regarding localism in action and expose the controlling tendencies of central government. Analysis is also directed towards the uneasy relationship between centralised powers, conditional decentralisation and fragmented localism. Nevertheless, some cases of emergent practice are utilised to demonstrate how ‘constrained freedoms’ can be negotiated to undertake innovative actions. The paper concludes by suggesting some foundational elements that would support the notion of ‘empowered localities’ and may also secure the government’s imperative to enable private sector-led growth.
Key words
2011 Localism Act, local economic development, Local Enterprise Partnerships, Economic Prosperity Boards, Combined Authorities
Bentley, G. & Pugalis, L. (2013) 'New directions in economic development: localist policy discourses and the Localism Act', Local Economy
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
This presentation is about the working procedure of Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL). A Govt. owned Company of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation under Ministry of Industries.
Hierarchical Digital Twin of a Naval Power SystemKerry Sado
A hierarchical digital twin of a Naval DC power system has been developed and experimentally verified. Similar to other state-of-the-art digital twins, this technology creates a digital replica of the physical system executed in real-time or faster, which can modify hardware controls. However, its advantage stems from distributing computational efforts by utilizing a hierarchical structure composed of lower-level digital twin blocks and a higher-level system digital twin. Each digital twin block is associated with a physical subsystem of the hardware and communicates with a singular system digital twin, which creates a system-level response. By extracting information from each level of the hierarchy, power system controls of the hardware were reconfigured autonomously. This hierarchical digital twin development offers several advantages over other digital twins, particularly in the field of naval power systems. The hierarchical structure allows for greater computational efficiency and scalability while the ability to autonomously reconfigure hardware controls offers increased flexibility and responsiveness. The hierarchical decomposition and models utilized were well aligned with the physical twin, as indicated by the maximum deviations between the developed digital twin hierarchy and the hardware.
Cosmetic shop management system project report.pdfKamal Acharya
Buying new cosmetic products is difficult. It can even be scary for those who have sensitive skin and are prone to skin trouble. The information needed to alleviate this problem is on the back of each product, but it's thought to interpret those ingredient lists unless you have a background in chemistry.
Instead of buying and hoping for the best, we can use data science to help us predict which products may be good fits for us. It includes various function programs to do the above mentioned tasks.
Data file handling has been effectively used in the program.
The automated cosmetic shop management system should deal with the automation of general workflow and administration process of the shop. The main processes of the system focus on customer's request where the system is able to search the most appropriate products and deliver it to the customers. It should help the employees to quickly identify the list of cosmetic product that have reached the minimum quantity and also keep a track of expired date for each cosmetic product. It should help the employees to find the rack number in which the product is placed.It is also Faster and more efficient way.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
Immunizing Image Classifiers Against Localized Adversary Attacksgerogepatton
This paper addresses the vulnerability of deep learning models, particularly convolutional neural networks
(CNN)s, to adversarial attacks and presents a proactive training technique designed to counter them. We
introduce a novel volumization algorithm, which transforms 2D images into 3D volumetric representations.
When combined with 3D convolution and deep curriculum learning optimization (CLO), itsignificantly improves
the immunity of models against localized universal attacks by up to 40%. We evaluate our proposed approach
using contemporary CNN architectures and the modified Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR-10
and CIFAR-100) and ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC12) datasets, showcasing
accuracy improvements over previous techniques. The results indicate that the combination of the volumetric
input and curriculum learning holds significant promise for mitigating adversarial attacks without necessitating
adversary training.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
Final project report on grocery store management system..pdfKamal Acharya
In today’s fast-changing business environment, it’s extremely important to be able to respond to client needs in the most effective and timely manner. If your customers wish to see your business online and have instant access to your products or services.
Online Grocery Store is an e-commerce website, which retails various grocery products. This project allows viewing various products available enables registered users to purchase desired products instantly using Paytm, UPI payment processor (Instant Pay) and also can place order by using Cash on Delivery (Pay Later) option. This project provides an easy access to Administrators and Managers to view orders placed using Pay Later and Instant Pay options.
In order to develop an e-commerce website, a number of Technologies must be studied and understood. These include multi-tiered architecture, server and client-side scripting techniques, implementation technologies, programming language (such as PHP, HTML, CSS, JavaScript) and MySQL relational databases. This is a project with the objective to develop a basic website where a consumer is provided with a shopping cart website and also to know about the technologies used to develop such a website.
This document will discuss each of the underlying technologies to create and implement an e- commerce website.
HEAP SORT ILLUSTRATED WITH HEAPIFY, BUILD HEAP FOR DYNAMIC ARRAYS.
Heap sort is a comparison-based sorting technique based on Binary Heap data structure. It is similar to the selection sort where we first find the minimum element and place the minimum element at the beginning. Repeat the same process for the remaining elements.
6th International Conference on Machine Learning & Applications (CMLA 2024)ClaraZara1
6th International Conference on Machine Learning & Applications (CMLA 2024) will provide an excellent international forum for sharing knowledge and results in theory, methodology and applications of on Machine Learning & Applications.
Fundamentals of Electric Drives and its applications.pptx
The Evolution of Public Sector Employment and Public Debt in the United Kingdom before and During the Recent Economic Crisis
1. International Journal of Business and Management Invention
ISSN (Online): 2319 – 8028, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 801X
www.ijbmi.org || Volume 5 Issue 10 || October. 2016 || PP—122-134
www.ijbmi.org 122 | Page
The Evolution of Public Sector Employment and Public Debt in
the United Kingdom before and During the Recent Economic
Crisis
Phd Candidate Alina Ciobanu1
, Phd Candidate Liviu Marius Fetic2
1
(Faculty of Management, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)
2
(Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)
ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the evolution of public sector expenditure and public sector employment in
the United Kingdom before and during the recent economic crisis. Public sector has come to a moment when
significant transformations had to be done, both from a structural and functional point of view. This paper sets
the economic, political and social framework in which the process of reorganization took place following the
2008-2010 economic crisis and discusses a series of factors that determined the UK government to undertake
these measures. The aim of the research is to provide a complete diagnosis of how public expenditure and
employment evolved before the recent economic downturn and describe the functional relationship between
public employment size and its costs.
Keywords: government, public employment, public expenditure, public sector, research
I. INTRODUCTION
National and international economic, social and politic contexts are permanently changing and the
recent global economic and financial crisis has raised serious challenges even for the best performing economies
of the world. During the last decade, the British government has undertaken a series of sharp fiscal measures
meant to reduce public expenditure, such as cutting pay, cutting pensions or shedding jobs.
The aim of our paper is to analyze the evolution of the British public system through different stages up
to 2010, by placing public spending and public sector employment into a broader span of time so that
comparisons between different periods may be performed. The paper is structured around the following three
main pillars: the evolution of total public spending during the reference period, the size of public sector
employment and the evolution of public personnel expenditure as percentage of GDP.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Public sector employment relations have been marked by important reforms during the last decades, all
over Europe. The reform was triggered by macroeconomic constrains arisen from concerns about high levels of
public expenditure and their potentially detrimental effects on national competitiveness in a more global
economy, to which can be added the Maastricht convergence criteria for membership of Economic Monetary
Union and the provision of the 1997 growth stability pact, putting national governments‟ fiscal policies under
pressure [1].
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the theory of the New Public Management (NPM) stressed the
importance of performance management in the public sector. Bouckaert and Van Dooren (2003) consider that, at
first, the emphasis on performance management was mainly a consequence of rising fiscal deficits in
government, inspired by the ideologies of keeping the state as small as possible, but by the mid- and late 1990s,
minimizing the public sector was no longer the dominant public management reform strategy and outcomes and
quality concerns gain importance [2].
The functions the government has assumed in the development of the society have also changed, and
along with the diversification and increase of government role, public expenditures have significantly increased
worldwide. On the one hand, the governments have become more involved in providing the population with the
necessary social services, thus the welfare state was created and developed, and on the other hand, governments
have sought to pass some of their traditional functions to the private sector, through privatization and de-
industrialization.
2.1 Public sector employment expenditure
ILO (1999) appreciated that there were over 450 million people employed directly in the public sector,
at least 200 million of whom work in government units. This affirmation constitutes a strong argument to assert
the indisputable importance of the sector in the social and economic reality, throughout the world. The
international organization also states that “the share of public employment in total world employment remains
2. The Evolution Of Public Sector Employment And Public Debt In The United Kingdom Before…
www.ijbmi.org 123 | Page
large – at around 30 percent depending on the levels of economic development and the role played by the State
in the production of goods and services” [3].
The welfare state has triggered the logical and necessary increase of the number of public employees, a
fact which contributed to the enhancement of public spending. The studies of Pollitt and Bouckaert (2004) [4],
Rothenbacher (1998) [5] or Suleiman (2003) [6] prove that public employees‟ compensation expenditure is a
very important spending category in government‟s budget, in some OECD countries amounting to 24 percent of
total government expenditure and 11 percent per GDP (in 2005) [7].
However, during the 1980s and 1990s, numerous governments made deliberate efforts to reduce the
level of employment in the core public service, as part of moves to contain or reduce public expenditure. In
many cases this cutting back has been used as an opportunity to introduce public management reforms but the
motivation is generally economic not managerial, as any government needs to keep the volume of expenditure
and public employment in some kind of balance with the economy as a whole [8].
Governments attempted to cease the increase in state expenditure by slowing down the growth in the
number of public sector employees, by "freezing" public sector employment, by cutting back personnel or by
implementing measures that would increase productivity in the public sector [9].
Kamarck (2005) [10] sees the reductions in size of the government as a global reforming movement
that took place in two phases. The author considers that the first phase took place primarily during 1980s, when
governments concentrated on economic liberalisation and on privatising state owned industries. The second
phase – beginning in the 1990s – focused on the administrative reform of core state functions and the building
state capacity, which resulted in reducing the size of governmental bureaucracies “while simultaneously making
government more efficient, more modern, more responsive to the citizen and less corrupt” [10].
However, Rothenbacher (1998) [5] considers that the reforms of the 80s resulted into a merely
temporary reduction in the increase in expenditure as the average rate of state expenditure (in % of GDP) in the
quinquennium 1990-95 was higher in all OECD countries than it was in the decade 1980-89. Talbot (2001)
affirms that “the paradox of public services and management in the UK over the past 20 years or so is that
everything has changed and nothing has changed” as “public services are still a very large proportion of national
life and they have not qualitatively altered the share of national resources they consume, the numbers of people
they employ or the range of services they offer” [11].
On the other hand, public sector payments are interrelated with the development of incomes in the
economy as a whole. If the incomes in the private sector rise, the public sector cannot detach itself from this
development without running the risk of becoming unattractive. If the income gap between the private and the
public sectors becomes too big – especially in the field of upper-level positions – a noticeable lack of qualified
personnel might occur [5]. Specialists have signalled the difficulties public institutions face in attracting and
retaining highly prepared professionals, especially in the critical areas, due to factors such as the closed
recruitment system, the constant pressure to do more with less resources, frequent reorganizations or staff
reduction [12].
2.2 The public sector employment in the United Kingdom
When analysing the evolution of the UK public sector employment across time as well as in
comparison with other states, one must take into consideration the special features of this country: the lack of
public law basis or the fact that the concepts of “civil servant” and “public servants” are not clearly defined.
Derlien and Peters (2008) describe the structure of government and the state in the United Kingdom (at least
until July 1999) as “a highly centralized multinational state with a strong element of territorial administration
and a lack of systematic constitutional or public law governing public administration” [13].
Public employment relations in UK suffered radical transformations along the last five decades,
increasing grew consistently from 1960 to 1978, with particularly sharp increases during Labour government
and significant contractions starting with the 1980s, providing dramatic evidence of the Thatcher effect, one
continued under Major and subsequently partly reserved under Blair [13].
On winning power in 1979, the Conservative government, which had stated as a clear objective the
reduction in size of the civil service, demanded a 2.5 per cent reduction in staff expenditure and set targets for
reducing the number of officials from 732.000 to 630.000 by 1984, followed by new cuts each year until 1988.
In 1990, the year Thatcher left office, there were 580.000 civil servants; and the number of staff fell further
under Major, reaching 495.000 in 1997 [14]. The downward trend was reversed shortly after the Labour
government was elected in 1997 [13]. The category of industrial civil servants declined consistently to only 5.8
percent of the civil service in 2000, mainly through privatisation, while the number of non-industrial civil
servants declined between 1979 and 1985, then levelled off until 1993, the overall decline between 1979 and
2000 being of 21%, a much less dramatic percentage decline than for industrial civil servants (83%) [13]. One
important development in the civil service has been the establishment from 1988 onwards of “Next Steps”
agencies, which accounted in 1997 for 77 per cent of the UK civil service.
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Despite the loss of public sector job, Greenwood et al. (2002) warn that the state did not “rolled back”
since 1979 as much as government rhetoric might suggest. They argue that the proportion of gross domestic
product (GDP) absorbed by the public sector (around 40%) when the Conservatives left office in 1997 „was
almost the same‟ as when they entered office in 1979 [15]. Authors like Winchester and Bach (1999) consider
that during the 1980s and 1990s, the Conservative governments developed a series of policies that restructured
the organizational forms of public administration, strengthened management authority and accountability,
undermined the organization and confidence of trade unions, and threatened long-established methods and
principles of pay determination [16].
The last four decades have seen important changes in the public employment by policy area also. In
1961, the largest single category was nationalized industries and other public corporations at 38 per cent; by
1975 they had fallen to 28 per cent of total public employment. By 1997, as a result of reductions in number of
employees in nationalizes industries and the post-1979 privatizations, they accounted (excluding NHS trusts) for
only 7.9 per cent. The one clear area of growth has been in social policies. The National Health Service share of
total public employment grew from 10 per cent in 1961 to 24 per cent in 1997. Local authority education‟s share
grew from 13 per cent in 1961 to 23 per cent in 1997. Local authority services grew from 2.9 per cent in 1961 to
7.9 per cent in 1997. Thus social services (health, local education and social services) now account for 55 per
cent of public sector employment without including civil servants working on these policy areas and the
penumbra of nominally private sector but publicly funded education and social services [13].
Starting with 2008, when the effects of the global economic crisis became obvious and public spending
stated to be seen as a burden for the governmental budget. Given the fact that the costs determined by the high
number of public employees are considered to be a large part of the public expenditure, it is no surprise that the
downsizing of public employment and the containment of personnel costs became a core issue on the public
policy agenda.
2.3 Cutting public sector employment expenditure and size
Pollit and Bouckaert (2004) characterised the final years of the 90‟s and the first years of the 2000s as
high times for public sector restructuring and growing pressure on government budgets due to the economic and
financial crisis that took over the UK in 2008, the high level of public debt and the necessity and commitment of
the government to ensure its citizens with high quality public services [4]. The Spending Review from October
2010 set out the UK government spending plans for the period 2011-2015, putting into light how the cuts were
going to be distributed among the governmental departments and the devolved administrations. For many areas
of the public sector, a large part of their money was spent on the pay of their employees.
Karmarck (2005) considers cutting the wage bill difficult and controversial, as “government
employment has often been used as means of reducing social tension and substituting for a weak private sector
economy” [10]. There are several aspects to be considered when reducing the costs of government by
downsizing: the capacity of the private sector to absorb new workers; not increasing the burden for the
economy, as one government worker may be supporting many other family members; the workers that are paid
to leave the government through voluntary redundancy programmes often result to be the youngest and most
qualified, who can find more easily employment in the private sector; the “ghost workers” who have been
known to return to the government payroll if inadequate control mechanisms are not put in place following
initial audit [10].
Rothenbacher (1998) considers there are three possibilities to reduce staff expenditure: by privatizing
public enterprises (Post Office, Railways, energy supply, etc.) and thus achieving a (merely formal in part) shift
of the personnel from the public to the private sector; by limiting the scope of public tasks and directly cutting
back the number of employees; by redistributing work: full-time jobs are replaced by part-time jobs [5].
In terms of employment reduction, the most straightforward way is freezing recruitment and using
natural exits to reduce the number of employees. The number of job losses that can be achieved by using
„natural‟ exits from the public sector depends on the turnover rate, i.e. on the fraction of public sector employees
who voluntarily leave public sector employment in a given period. An alternative to the „natural exit‟ strategy is
to make public sector workers redundant, but this method is usually costly, as it tends to require large severance
packages, it is not an option for some public sector workers (for example, it is legally impossible to engage in
involuntary redundancies with police officers), and would also risk creating tensions and possible disruptions in
the way the public sector operates. The final option the authors analyse is to set up early retirement plans but
these policies end up being costly – much more so than redundancy packages – because they have a doubly
negative effect on the public finances: they represent a direct cost through the additional pension payments, and
they lead to lower labour force participation and thus reduce tax revenues [17].
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III. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
3.1 Research aims
Our paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of public expenditure and public
employment in the United Kingdom up to 2010, the moment when the UK government started to implement the
measures meant to diminish the effects of the economic crisis. The main aim of the present research is to clarify
how public expenditure evolved along the last decades and whether social expenditure is the only category of
public spending that increased lately.
In order to achieve this objective we have analysed the transformations that occurred in the area of
public spending and the driving forces triggering these changes in the evolutionary trend, the size and structure
of public employment depending on the level of government and the area of public activity, as well as the
connection between the public employment dimension and the costs involved.
3.2 Research methods and data sources
For the purpose of our analysis, public expenditure has been divided between social spending and core
spending, taking into consideration the new Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) which
provides a breakdown of general government expenditure into the following ten functional spending categories:
general public services; defence; public order and safety; economic affairs; environmental protection; housing
and community amenities; health; recreation, culture and religion; education; and social protection.
Castles (2007) divided the ten spending categories into social expenditure, representing health and
social protection spending which he considered to be closely equivalent, although not quite identical, to social
expenditure as measured in SOCX, and core expenditure, in which he included the remaining functions [18].
The data processed in the first section of the present research relies on the new COFOG basis, and
represent multiannual data provided by the website www.ukpublicspending.co.uk, data compiled by Christopher
Chantrill and obtained from Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA).
The second section of the research, analysing public employment size and distribution according to
several criteria, and the third section, analysing public sector pay bill and the functional relationship between
public sector size and its costs, require cross-sectional time series information which have been obtained from
the database of the UK Office of National Statistics. The release on Public Sector Employment statistics
provides information regarding total employment, the number of public and private sector employees, the
number of public employees divided by industry or by sector classification and the number of economically
active people with ages between 16 and 64. The Blue Book release provides information on public sector
compensation divided between general government and public corporations. The data regarding consumer price
indices for the analysed period was obtained from the release regarding Consumer Price Indices.
The Official Labour Market Statistics has also been consulted, especially the Annual business inquiry
employee analysis, which is an employee survey of the number of jobs held by employees broken down by sex,
full/part-time and detailed by industry. The industry section provides information classified according to the
Standard Industrial Classification, sections L: Public administration and defence, compulsory social security,
M: Education and N: Health and social work being the most relevant ones for the present research.
3.3. Research results
In order to bring public sector borrowing back down to a sustainable level, the UK government planned
a six-year fiscal consolidation package, which started in the 2010−11 fiscal year.
In what follows, we are going to undertake an analysis regarding public spending and public
employment in the United Kingdom so that we can provide a diagnosis of the context in which the government
decided to implement the measures are aimed to fight back the effects of the economic downturn and reduce
public deficit. The empirical analysis proceeds in three steps. First of all, by decomposing total public spending
in social and core spending we are going to assess the evolution of these two categories of functional spending.
Second, we will explore the size of public sector employment, taking into account the level of government or
the area of activity, focusing on its evolution along the last two decades. Third, we will explore the development
of public personnel expenditure as percentage of GDP and try to establish a connection between the size of
public employment and the costs involved.
3.3.1 Social spending and core expenditure
This first part of the research establishes the level of the UK public spending during 2010 and its
evolution along the last three decades, highlighting how the share of its main components (social spending, core
spending and interest payments) changed along this period.
Fig. 1 shows how public spending has varied as a percentage of GDP in the United Kingdom for the
period 1980-2009. The level of public spending seen in 2009 (44,54% of the GDP) is the highest since 1982,
when total public spending accounted for 45,56% of the GDP. The high levels of public expenditure reflect, on
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the one hand, the UK authorities‟ judgement of the need to invest in public services. According to OECD
(2009), the declining expenditure as a share of GDP from 1997-2002 permitted the UK to improve its budget
position, but in later years, as expenditures have increased, revenues have increased less quickly, resulting in
deficits since 2002 [19].
The government deficit widened rapidly mostly due to the fact that tax receipts were significantly
affected by the downturn caused by the economic crisis and also due to increases in expenditures to stimulate
the economy, which increased significantly since 2008.
Data source: www.ukpublicspending.co.uk
Figure 1. Total public spending
In order to provide a comprehensive image of how public spending evolved and changed over the last
two decades in the UK, we followed Castles‟ model of public spending classification and divided UK public
expenditure categories into the two bigger aggregates of spending: core and total social expenditure. The
analysis of core and social expenditure allows us to appreciate whether cutbacks in these areas can legitimately
be seen as aspects of a coherent process of expenditure retrenchment and offers us a perspective over the
evolution of public spending.
Table 1 presents the categories of public spending in UK divided between local authorities and the
central government and shows that each of the two bigger aggregate of public spending – social spending and
core expenditures – constituted, on average, around 50 per cent of UK public budget in 2010.
Table 1. United Kingdom Central Government and Local Authority Spending, 2010 (£ billion)
Functional categories of public spending Central Government Local Authority Total
CORE SPENDING 187.9 112.3 300
1 General public services 50.6 10.8 61.3
2 Defence 38.2 0.1 38.2
3 Public order and safety 17 17.7 34.7
4 Economic affairs 33.9 10.9 44.8
5 Environmental protection 3 6.7 9.6
6 Housing and community amenities 7.2 4.6 11.8
7 Recreation, culture and religion 8.1 5.8 14
8 Education 29.9 55.7 85.6
SOCIAL SPENDING 297.1 49.1 346.1
9 Health 119.5 0.3 119.8
10 Social protection 177.6 48.8 226.3
Other Spending 8.2 17.1 25.3
Balance 2.6 -5.3 -2.7
TOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING 495.7 173.2 668.9
Data source: www.ukpublicspending.co.uk
Fig. 2 confirms that the welfare state did not retrench during these last decades, and that the core
expenditure state did. Between 1980 and 2010, social expenditure increased in UK from 15.54% of GDP in
1980 to 23.22% on GDP in 2010, while core expenditure decreased from almost 28% of GDP in 1980 to 20% of
GDP in 2010. Social expenditure grew steadily from 1990 until 2010, with a small decline at the end of the
1990s, while core expenditure started to increase from the 2000s onwards after a significant drop during the
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Total Public
Spending (% of
GDP)
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1980s and the 1990s. The general tendency of social expenditure and core expenditure along the last two
decades has been broadly convergent in character, with a substantial decline of core expenditure as percentage
in the GDP and a slight and constant increase in its evolution during the last decade.
Data source: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk, and authors' calculation.
Figure 2. Total public spending, social spending and core spending evolution between 1980 and 2010
Castles (2007) does not agree with the scholars who attributed welfare expenditure growth in these
years to increased spending on unemployment, arguing that SOCX (OECD Social Expenditure Database) data
on unemployment benefit and active labour market spending suggests that such increases contributed only
marginally to the social expenditure growth [18].
According to Castles (2007), public net debt also influences the level of core spending which in their
turn have great influence on the level of total public spending, as higher debt levels mean substantially higher
interest payments, which are a significant component of core spending [18]. This means that high levels of
indebtedness lead to higher levels of core spending when interest rates are rising and to declining levels of core
spending when interest rates are falling. However, in a study from 2011, the IFS shows that the spending on
debt interest payments was fairly stable at around 5% of national income until the late 1980s; and that it then fell
gradually until the mid-2000s.
Fig. 3 shows that the Public net debt of the UK fluctuated significantly along the last 30 years, while
core spending had a decreasing trend until the end of the 1990s after which started to increase slightly. As the
study of the IFS (2011) also showed, interest payments have been decreasing along the entire period, a factor
that permitted core spending to maintain its decreasing trend. Although Public net debt was high during several
periods of the last three decades, the fact that the costs with interest payments stayed low permitted the
government to decrease core spending and to enhance the social category expenditure.
Data source: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk, and authors' calculation.
Figure 3. The evolution of Public net debt, core spending and interest payments as percentage of GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50% 1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Social expenditure (% of
GDP)
Core spending (% of GDP)
Total public spending (%
of GDP)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Public net debt (%
of GDP)
Core spending (% of
GDP)
Interest (% of GDP)
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3.3.2 The size of public employment in UK between 1991 and 2009
The second part of our research aims to provide an analysis of the evolution of public sector
employment size of in the UK during the period that preceded the recent economic and financial crisis 1991-
2010 and to explore the functional relationship between the size and the costs of public employment.
The first step towards creating a clear and comprehensive analysis of the public sector employment in
UK is to situate it into the larger frame of total employment. As Fig. 4 shows, total employment in the UK
registered a significant ascending trend along the last decade, starting from 27,115 thousands employees in 1999
and reaching 29,503 thousands employees in 2008. This ascending trend was ceased by the global financial
crisis that started in 2008 but official statistics show that it has been retaken with the year of 2010. So the
difference between total employment in 1999 and total employment in 2010 is of approximately 2 million
employees, which means that employment increased by 2010 with 7.53% compared to 1999.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSeries1.asp
Figure 4. Total employment evolution in UK between 1999 and 2010 (headcount)
The next step of the research is to analyse the share of public employment in total employment. Fig. 5
below illustrate the percentages public sector employment and private sector employment represent in total
employment for two different years, 1999 and 2010, and allow a comparison between the situations of public
employment as share of total employment for these periods.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSeries1.asp
Figure 5. Share of public and private employment as percentage of total employment in 1999 and 2010
The share of public employment increased with almost 1,5% in total employment during the reference
period. There were 5,443 thousands employees in the public sector in 1999 and 6,276 thousands in 2010; in the
private sector there were 21,672 thousands employees in 1999 and 22,882 in 2010. These figures reflect that,
although the number of jobs in the private sector increased significantly during this period, their growing rhythm
was not as fast as the one of the number of jobs in public sector, which represents only a fifth of total
employment. In other words, the public sector played an important part in the enhancement of total employment
in the UK between 1999 and 2010, this increase reflecting also the fact that government units became more
involved in the production of goods and services along the last years.
Following Tepe (2009) [7], who in line with Cusack et al. (1989) [20], suggests that the working age
population is a more appropriate denominator for public sector employment than total employment, as the latter
is sensitive toward business cycle fluctuations, we are also going to measure public administration employment
25500
26000
26500
27000
27500
28000
28500
29000
29500
30000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total employment
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as the share of working age population. All people of working age are categorised within official labour market
statistics as being either employed, unemployed or economically inactive. For this measurement, we are going
to set as denominator the population aged 16-64 (one of the age categories provided by the Official Labour
Market Statistics) that are economically active, namely eligible individuals who either are employed or are
actively seeking employment.
Fig. 6 below shows that the percentage of public employees within the selected denominator increased
continuously until 2006 when, two years before the economic crisis started, the government started to reduce the
number of employees working in the public sector. The sudden increase reflected in the number of public
employees as a share of the economically active working age population in 2009 can be explained through the
nationalization of several important financial institutions that took place during 2008 and that determined an
increase in public workforce.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSelection1.asp for data regarding the Economically active
people, aged 16-64; http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSelection1.asp for data regarding Public sector
employment.
Figure 6. The percentage of public employees out of economically active working age people
Fig. 7 below presents the distribution of public employment by level of government in UK (central
government, local government and public corporations) for three different periods so that the evolution in time
can be analysed.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSeries1.asp
Figure 7. Total public sector employment by level of government in 1991, 1999 and 2010
The following trends can be observed:
- During the period 1991-1999, which mostly coincided with the Conservative government, the share of local
government in total public employment remained constant and the one of public corporations decreased, as
a consequence of the privatisations that took place during those years. It is important to mention that the
total number employees, including the three governmental levels, decreased from 6,017 thousands in 1991
to 5,446 thousands in 1999, due to the fact that the number of employees in local government and public
corporations dropped significantly during this period. Only the number of employees of the central
government decreased in a small proportion which explains why its share in total public employment
increased with 4%.
18%
19%
19%
20%
20%
21%
21%
% of the economically
active people (aged 16-
64) working in the public
sector
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- During the period 1999-2010, which mostly coincided with the Labour government, the number of
employees of the central government continued its ascending trend. Despite the fact that the increase was
more significant during this decade than during the previous period – from 2,326 thousands in 1999 to
2,827 thousands in 2010 – it did not cause a proportional impact on the total number of public employees as
both the number of local government employees and the number of public corporations employees
increased, the first at a slower rate than the latter, as shown also by the drop in percentages – from 51% in
1999 to 46% in 2010. The increase of the number public corporations employees and, implicitly, of its share
in total public employment is explained by the nationalization of several British banks during the year of
economic crisis of 2008.
Table 2 below provides information about the evolution of the number of civil servants in total public
sector employment during the reference period. Overall, the share of civil servants in total public administration
in UK did decrease along the last two decades, from 10,91% in 1991 to 9,10% in 2010, although their real
number did not maintain a constantly decreasing trend and fluctuated together with the total number of public
sector employees. The number of civil servants started to increase in 1999 until 2005 when it reached 571
thousands employees.
Table 2. Percentage of civil servants of total public employees (thousands, headcount)
YEAR Number of civil
servants
Total public sector
employment
Civil servants (% of total public
sector employment)
1991 593 6017 10.91%
1999 504 5446 9.91%
2010 522 6276 9.10%
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSeries1.asp
The charts below present the distribution of workforce in public sector for the main areas of activity
(education, NHS, public administration, other public sector industries) corresponding to three different years of
reference 1991, 1999 and 2010. The category „other public sector industries‟ includes: construction, HM forces,
police, other health & social and other public sector.
Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSeries1.asp
Figure 8. Distribution of public employment by industry in 1991, 1999 and 2010
The following remarks need to be made based on the analysis of the above three charts:
- Changes in the size of the public sector workforce over the last decade have been far from evenly spread
across areas of activity.
- There are two areas of activity in which public sector employment increased relatively quickly along the
last two decades: education and the NHS. While the first one had a more significant increase during the
period 1991-1999, the later one had a more significant increase during the period 1999-2010, each area
representing 26% of the employment in public sector by 2010, education counting for 1,661 thousands
employees and the NHS for 1,599 thousands employees.
- The public administration area maintained the same percentage of the public sector employment between
1991 and 1999 and registered a decreasing trend along the following period, overall dropping from 1,315 to
1,212 thousands employees.
- Regarding the public sector activities – construction, HM forces, police, other health & social and other
public sector – included in the category „other public sector industries‟, all of them dropped significantly in
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terms of employment, except for the Police which employed, in 2010, 30% more people than in 1991
(increased from 224 thousands employees to 292 thousands employees during the analysed time period).
3.3.3 Public sector employees’ compensation in the United Kingdom
After having established the size of public employment and having analysed its evolution along the last
two decades, the third part of our research will analyse the trends in public sector pay bill and will establish a
relationship between the size of public employment and its costs.
Fig. 9 shows the evolution of public sector compensation as a share of GDP over the period 1991-2009.
Measuring the costs of employee compensation as a share of the GDP provides an overall indicator for the
amount of public resources devoted to public employment. From a peak of 14.62% of GDP in 1992, total public
sector compensation (the two shaded areas combined) declined to a low in 1999 of 10.84%, which reflected
largely the privatisation of public corporations. Between 1999 and 2005, the pay bill grew steadily and, after a
small decline between 2005 and 2007, the total pay bill increased again to reach 13.06% of the GDP in 2009,
which is its highest level since 1993. IFS (2011) argues that the large increase between 2008 and 2009 was
caused by the continued real increase in the public pay bill at a time when national income was declining [17].
Source http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdtables1.asp?vlnk=bb
Figure 9. Public sector compensation
The general government pay bill (i.e. excluding public corporations) grew from a low of £104 billion
(in 2009 prices) in 1995 to £151 billion in 2004, increasing with 3% to 6% each year in real terms over this
period. In 2006 and 2007 it grew at a much slower rate, registering a negative increase in 2008, before growing
more quickly again between 2008 and 2009, reaching £168 in 2009. We have reached these findings by using
information which was brought up to date, at the level of prices of 2009, by using the consumer price indices for
the period between 1991 and 2009, provided by the Office of National Statistics.
Another way to measure the costs of employee compensation is as a share of total government
expenditure, in order to capture the relative importance of employees‟ compensation expenditure in the
government‟s budget. The general government pay bill amounted to £168 billion in 2009, representing 28% of
total public expenditure and 12,05% of the GDP [21], the highest level since 1992.
Fig. 10 shows the percentage increase in the general government pay bill (in real terms) split between
the increase in headcount and the increase in cost per head since 1992. The data collected and analysed in the
present section includes information regarding the period 1991-2009, which is why the calculations the
calculations for the year 1991 were not carried out. The period analysed includes both Conservative and Labour
governments. The Conservative government, which corresponds in the case of our analysis to the period
between 1992 and 1997, reduced headcounts on average by 1,1% each year and increased real cost per head by
1.1% on average a year; the Labour governments, on the other hand, increased headcounts by 1%, on average,
per year as well as increasing cost per head by 2.8%, on average, per year over the period from 1997 to 2009.
However, most of the increase in the general government pay bill was concentrated during 1999-2005, with
costs per head rising by 4% per year in real terms over this period. It results from these calculations that this was
the period when public spending was growing at its fastest rate under the previous Labour administrations. In
the years before the financial crisis, the Labour government started to reduce this growth both by limiting
increases in costs per head and by reducing the employment level slightly. After 2008, this tightening of the
public sector pay bill ceased, with a significant increase occurring in 2009.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Public Corporations
Compensation of
Employees (% of GDP)
General Government
Compensation of
employees (% of GDP)
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Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdtables1.asp?vlnk=bb
Figure 10. Changes in the general government pay bill
3.4 Results analysis and interpretation
UK public spending has varied significantly along the last three decades as a percentage of the GDP,
registering a continuously upward trend starting with the first years of the last decade. Our research has reached
the conclusion that indeed social expenditure (health and social protection), which in 2010 represented almost
50% of total public expenditure, has been continuously increasing since early 1990s; while core spending (the
other categories of functional expenditure divided according to the COFOG classification) has been decreasing
for most of the period, allowing the government to allocate more financial resources to the social care. Overall,
the analysis suggests that the dominant trend of public spending over the recent years has been convergent in
character with an upward movement in social expenditure and a downward movement, for most of the period, in
core spending coming from the effort of the country to reduce its fiscal vulnerability under circumstances of
increasing debt. However, it is worth mentioning, that during the Labour governments, both aggregate
categories of public spending registered an increasing trend as share of the GDP, core spending increasing for
the first time within the analysed time span.
The second part of our research reveals that, in the context of the ascending evolution of total
employment, public employment had a higher rate of increase than the private employment during the last
decade, meaning that many of these job gains were in the public sector. However, the private sector still
employees 78.5 percent of total workforce, representing the dominant employer in production, constructions and
in many services. In contrast, the public sector is the dominant employer in health, education and public
administration. Public employment increased as a share of the economically active working age population until
2005, when it started a slight decreasing evolution, suppressed by the process of nationalization of several
financial institutions during 2008.
The composition of public sector employment has changed dramatically over the last two decades.
Regarding the level of government, the number of people employed by central government increased with 6%
between 1991 and 2010, whereas local government decreased with 5% within the same period. If we split this
span of time between Conservative and Labour governments, we will notice the first ones maintained a highly
centralised British administration with little more than half of the public employees working for the central level
of the government in a period when the number of jobs in public administration was declining. As we will see at
a later phase of our analysis, the number of civil servants also declined during those years meaning that
bureaucracy was getting thinner. However, the number of jobs provided by the central level of the government
remained constant. During the Labour government, although the number of public jobs increased, their
distributions shows a more decentralised state with a smaller number of employees working for the central
government and a higher number of people employed at the local level.
Public corporations represent the part of public employment which fluctuated most during this period
as a consequence of the privatisation and then nationalization processes that occurred along the last twenty
years.
The results of our analysis show that public employment experienced important changes regarding the
number of employees working in different areas of public activity. Employment in education and health has
gone up, together counting for just more than fifty per cent of total public sector employment compared with
around forty per cent twenty years ago. In contrast, public administration area lost a significant number of
employees. All the other public activities – construction, HM forces, police, other health & social and other
public sector – dropped as well in terms of employment, with the exception of the police forces who manager to
increase their manpower with 30 percent between 1991 and 2010.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Headcounts
Cost per head (real terms)
Total costs (real terms)
12. The Evolution Of Public Sector Employment And Public Debt In The United Kingdom Before…
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These changes have hot been evenly spread across all public branches, the development of the welfare
state determining the necessity to employ more and more people for the activities developed in social areas.
These findings indicate that increase and not radical downsizing has been dominant pattern of public
administration employment policies.
The results of our research regarding the costs of employee compensation as a share of the GDP show
that it declined until 1999, when it started to grow steadily. The percentage increase in the general government
pay bill (in real terms) split between the increase in headcount and the increase in cost per head shows that the
Conservative government reduced headcounts and increased real cost per head each year. On the other hand, the
Labour governments increased headcounts as well as increasing cost per head each year at a higher rate than the
previous Conservative government did during a period of decrease in headcounts. The fact that the number of
public employees has decreased or increased whereas the cost per head has increased, during the entire analysed
period, reflects that growing government employees‟ compensation expenditure does not cause a decrease in
public administration employment. Furthermore, we can conclude that the driving forces behind public
administration employment growth are not the personnel costs in particular but rather fiscal constraints and anti-
cyclical public employment policies are the driving factors.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
Higher debt levels meaning substantially higher net debt interest payments or electoral necessity of the
governments to respond to the population‟s demands for increased spending on social programmes and for new
programmes to cope with what the literature describes as the „new social risks‟ of life in post-industrial societies
are other factors which may have influenced the shaping of public expenditure trends over these years.
The increased influence of the state in economy and society has triggered the enhancement of public
expenditure. Along with other European countries, the United Kingdom has also experienced moments of
important reformations in the structure and the number of public employment and up trends or down trends of
public expenditure dimension.
The structure of the UK public employment did change during the last decades, registering significant
cutbacks in the number of industrial public servants and increases in the number of those working in areas of
social services provision. The fact that public employment wage pay bill remained high and started to weigh
heavier and heavier in the public budget , in spite of all the transformations that took place along the years,
determine governments either to reduce public employees earnings or to cut public employment.
A further research that would aim to complete the analysis undertaken in the present paper should be
focused on assessing which are the areas of the United Kingdom that have benefited most from the increase in
public sector employment and to what extent. All government departments other than health, which will be
protected to some extent, face their biggest and fastest spending reductions of modern times, so a future paper
would focus on identifying which category of public activity each area relies most on and formulate proposals of
further policy options that could reduce the effect of the announced cuts in public spending and public
employment.
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