This document provides a calendar and overview of anticipated events and impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States from May 2020 through the end of the year. It outlines a three phase plan for reopening the country and economy. Key events discussed include the progression of reopening, impacts on unemployment and the stock market, the presidential election in November, and Trump's potential "surprise" actions. Public opinion polls show continued support for restrictions and a wariness of lifting measures too quickly.

1. THE COVID CALENDAR
A living roadmap to chart the post-Coronavirus world
v. May 11, 2020 Gregory Adams
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

2. THE COVID CALENDAR
ANTICIPATED COVID CALENDAR - AS OF MAY 11, 2020
SEPMAY JUN JUL AUG OCT NOV DEC
Stay-at-
Home
Month
* mix of official and anticipated dates
TBD
Surprise
Debate 1?
Debate 2?
TBD
Surprise
TBD
Surprise
Dem
Convention
Rep
Convention
Phase 1
Curbside Retail, and
their Suppliers
Phase 2
Higher Risk
Workplaces Phase-in
Phase 3
END of STAY AT
HOME Order
Start of
School?
Xmas Season
Q2 EARNINGS
Georgia, Texas Updates
End of
School
VP
Selection
Unemployment
Hangover
Q2 Earnings
Anticipation
Q2 Earnings
Reality
Breather
Election
Effervescence,
The New
Normal
Election
Hangover
Recovery?
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decision
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
9/3 CRA
Deadline
ThanksgivingMemorial
Day
B - 50%
T - 41%

3. THE COVID CALENDAR
MAY 11, 2020 COVID CALENDAR KEY INSIGHTS
▸ We foresee the USA has, for the most part, entered or will enter Phase 1 of the Opening Up America Again (OUAA) from
May 2020, with a fairly swift move to Phase 2 come the beginning of July, and a prolonged but hyped shift into Phase 3
from September.
▸ The stock market has been anticipating this reopening for the past 3-4 weeks, with the overall market recovering 60% of its
Covid losses from its March 23rd levels. But P/E ratios are currently above those of similar 2018 levels, leading us to feel
there possibility for a pullback mid-May to mid-June prior to Q2 earnings anticipation
▸ Polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in spite of actions taken to directly or indirectly manage the Covid-19 crisis.
Given Trump’s propensity to propel unanticipated actions to the front of his preferred reporting agenda we foresee the first
of perhaps three ‘Trump Surprises’ coming in June to attempt to control the reopening narrative.
▸ As we are now in the 3rd month of the Stay-at-Home authorization, while population has now become familiar with, if not
overall accepting, of measures imposed, social implications such as ending of the school year without activities, the change
of weather and the effect of reopening the first businesses and professional sports leagues will bolster the financial
pressures of a prolonged shutdown to shift sentiment from biological to economic priority. The need to commit within June
to physical or virtual 2020-21 school year will be a substantial early indicator.

4. THE COVID CALENDAR
ABOUT THE COVID CALENDAR
▸ Unlike past historical pandemics and economic downturns, the current Covid-19 emergency has
truly overtaken the entire 195 country global community, effectively focusing the full attention of
the world’s intelligentsia and population at large on both isolating themselves for fear of catching
the virus, and working quickly to come up with solutions to end the self-induced pause to everyday
life.
▸ The Covid Calendar is meant to be a living forward guidance paper on what plausibly may occur
over the coming months in the USA by aligning various linked effects of the virus and potential and
announced impacts/actions, rather than a specific prediction of individual events.
▸ The focus will be on non-medical data and their effects over time, noting there may be certain
exceptions such as a quick treatment or perhaps a cure.
▸ The document will be updated every week to reflect significant changes to the impact data.

5. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - COVID-19 OVERSHADOWS THE CALENDAR
▸ Overall Federal re-opening guidelines
(Opening Up America Again) three phases
▸ Meeting proposed criteria: symptoms, cases,
hospitals, testing & contact tracing,
healthcare systems capacity, plans)
▸ Flattening or Surging of Curve and growing
understanding of impact of the virus
▸ Governors tweaking and adapting their specific
re-opening protocols realtime
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

6. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 HOTSPOTS: USA MAY 11, 2020
▸ NY, NJ, CT, MA and LA remain the top 5 states for deaths per 100,000 people ranging from 48-128
▸ Nine states have an increasing case trend
▸ Overall the US case and death rates are declining
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

7. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - STOCK MARKET PROLONGED VOLATILITY IS A BY-PRODUCT OF THE CALENDAR
A. May exuberance shakeout
B. June retrenchment with further unemployment
impacts, assessment of overall positive COVID
status, anticipation of Q2 earnings
C. July/August earnings sobriety, further overlay of
positive COVID status, effects from political
conventions
D. September volatility from election uncertainty vs.
reopening of economy
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

8. THE COVID CALENDAR
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - MAY 11, 2020
▸ Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent
▸ This is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in history
▸ The unemployment rate of workers with a bachelors degree or higher is 8.4%, while it is 21% for people with less than a High School diploma.
▸ The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff increased about ten-fold to 18.1 million in April
https://data.bls.gov/home.htm © Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

9. THE COVID CALENDAR
STOCK MARKET PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO COMPARISON - MAY 11, 2020
▸ P/E ratios are UP compared to one year ago, in spite of unclear forward earnings,
suggesting values outpacing economic reality
WSJ.com
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

10. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - ELECTION 2020 DRIVES THE CALENDAR
A. President Trump desire to reopen prior to election
B. Democrats wanting to own the reopening process
C. Biden ability to display leadership, acceptability with VP
choice, debate performance
D. Trump / Biden gaff risk - expect 1-2 per month
E. September 3 Congressional Review deadline for Trump to
enact legislation (under the law, in order for a federal rule to
be considered in effect, it must have been submitted to
Congress for review for 60-days) to assure no immediate
repeal
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

11. THE COVID CALENDAR
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLLS - MAY 11, 2020
▸ Biden continues to lead in major
polls
▸ Monmouth University Poll shows
Biden ahead 50% to 41%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

12. THE COVID CALENDAR
TRUMP SURPRISES: ‘CRAZY LIKE A FOX’
https://informedopinions.org/trumps-terrifying-communication-effectiveness/
BIDEN UKRAINE BOMSHELL
BIDEN SEXUAL
HARASSMENT REVEAL
FLASH STIMULUS
DISTRACTING FOREIGN
INCURSION
???
Possibilities
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
▸ Trump’s propensity to disregard traditional protocol (withholding taxes, meet with Kim Jung-un) and shift
position (COVID-19 response, NRA) means just when things seem set expect the unexpected...
▸ he keeps it simple
▸ reinforce his key messages
▸ avoids the ‘data dump’
▸ addresses his audience head-on,
▸ sells the feeling, not the idea
▸ willingness to “tell it like it is”
▸ reinforce his brand
▸ owning the field.
▸ say things that are utterly memorable
▸ keeps listeners on their toes
▸ entertainment value of the resulting suspense

13. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - SOCIETY LIVES THE CALENDAR
A. Improving weather and hotter temperatures tests public &
private space closures
B. School closures without traditional group activities available
C. Holidays and the desire to enjoy accompanying traditions
D. August represents the 6th month of the Stay-at-Home order;
55% of Americans do not have 6 months of savings
E. Assumed (re)start of NBA, MLB, NFL. provides some pass times
F. School reopening plan, date - 2-3 months required to enable
once decided
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

14. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 OPINION: PUBLIC POLLS
▸ A sizable majority of Americans (68%) continue to say their greater concern is that state governments will lift coronavirus-related restrictions
on public activity too quickly. Fewer than half as many (31%) say their greater concern is that states will not lift restrictions quickly enough.
pewresearch.com © Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

15. THE COVID CALENDAR
THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ON FOOT TRAFFIC - MAY 9, 2020
▸ The coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic has brought massive, rapid, and ongoing changes to how people interact with their
surroundings.
▸ After a massive drop in physical movement, citizens of major metropolises are slowly increasing their pace, albeit still well under 50% of norm
safegraph.com
Here we show data from recent months on commercial activity (foot traffic trends) compared to the same time period from previous years to share insights into how the ongoing pandemic
is impacting the US economy and disrupting daily life.
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams