Two-thirds of global executives surveyed now expect a sizable global economic contraction due to COVID-19, up from 42% one month ago. Sixty-one percent expect declining company profits, the highest share since 2008. While respondents see the most positive scenarios as most likely, outlooks have declined sharply in most regions since last month. Respondents in China and North America remain more optimistic than others about their home economies' prospects in the next six months.
2. Exhibit 1
GES 2020
COVID Global Economic Sentiment
Exhibit 1 of 5
Respondents are much likelier than one month ago to expect moderate or
significant contraction, both globally and at home.
1
Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2
Includes respondents who said “significant increase,” “moderate increase,” and “minimal increase.”
Expected changes in economic growth rates, next 6 months, % of respondents1
March 2020,
n = 1,152
No
change Increase2
Significant
contraction
Moderate
contraction
Minimal
contraction
Apr 2020,
n = 2,121
March 2020,
n = 1,152
Global economy
Respondents’ home economies
Apr 2020,
n = 2,121
5 37 33 4 20
27 739 1 26
2 22 35 14 28
21 1035 1 33
As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads quickly across and within geographies, executives share growing
concerns about its economic impact—and, varying by region, dramatic shifts in their views since the
beginning of March.1
Responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy,2
conducted from
April 6 to April 10, show that overall sentiment is more negative than it was just one month ago: for example,
two-thirds of respondents expect a moderate or significant contraction in the world economy’s growth rate—
that is, a recession or a depression. In early March, only 42 percent said the same (Exhibit 1). And 56 percent
say the same thing about growth in their home economies, up from 24 percent one month ago.
Respondents’ overall outlook for their home countries and the global economy has changed less in the
past month, though their views remain decidedly downbeat. At least six in ten believe that conditions in
their home economies and in the global economy will worsen in the coming months. At the company level,
1
“Economic Conditions Snapshot, March 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results,” March 2020, McKinsey.com. The online survey was in the
field from March 2 to March 6, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,152 participants representing the full range of regions, industries,
company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data were weighted by the contribution of
each respondent’s nation to global GDP.
2
The online survey was in the field from April 6 to April 10, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,121 participants representing the full range of
regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the
contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.
2 The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment
3. Exhibit 2
GES 2020
COVID Global Economic Sentiment
Exhibit 2 of 5
Expectations for company profits hit an all-time low, with the largest share of
respondents since the 2008 financial crisis predicting a decrease.
1
Respondents who answered “stay the same” or “don’t know” are not shown.
Expected changes in company profits, next 6 months, % of respondents1
Decrease
Increase
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
3
“What executives think about the economy: 2004 to now,” March 2020, McKinsey.com.
4
For more on McKinsey’s COVID-19 scenarios, see Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan,
“In the tunnel: Executive expectations about the shape of the coronavirus crisis,” April 2020, McKinsey.com; and Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin
Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, “Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time,”
March 2020, McKinsey.com.
5
Includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
prospects are especially grim. Respondents are nearly twice as likely as they were one month ago to say
that the profits of their companies will decrease in the next few months; at 61 percent, that is the largest
share to report a negative outlook on profits since we began asking the question, in the wake of the 2008
financial crisis (Exhibit 2).3
Even so, the results point to some bright spots. When asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic’s impact
on GDP, a majority of respondents say the four more positive scenarios are most likely to play out in the next
year (Exhibit 3).4
As for the prospects of national economies, respondents in China5
are much more optimistic than those
elsewhere, even compared with their counterparts in the rest of Asia (Exhibit 4)—and much more positive
than they were one month ago (Exhibit 5). Respondents in North America are also likelier than others to
expect improvements in the months ahead, even though the number of US cases of COVID-19 exceeded
3The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment
4. Exhibit 3
COVID Global Economic Sentiment
Exhibit 2 of 5
When asked about nine COVID-19 scenarios, most respondents choose the four
most positive ones as the likeliest outcomes.
Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
GDP impact of COVID-19 spread, public-health response, and economic policies
Most likely scenario, % of respondents
GDP
Time
Virus contained but
sector damage; lower
long-term trend growth
Virus recurrence; slow
long-term growth
Rapid and effective
control of virus spread
Strong public-health
response succeeds in
controlling spread in
each country within
2–3 months
Ineffective
interventions
Self-reinforcing recession
dynamics kick in;
widespread bankruptcies
and credit defaults;
potential banking crisis
Partially effective
interventions
Policy responses
partially offset economic
damage; banking crisis
is avoided; recovery
levels muted
Effective
interventions
Strong policy response
prevents structural
damage; recovery to
precrisis fundamentals
and momentum
Effective response,
but virus recurs
Public-health response
succeeds, but measures
are not sufficient to
prevent recurrence, so
physical distancing
continues (regionally)
for several months
Virus spread
and public-
health
response
Effectiveness
of the
public-health
response
Knock-on effects and economic policy response
Effectiveness of government economic policy
Broad failure of
public-health
interventions
Public-health response
fails to control the
spread of the virus for
an extended period of
time (eg, until vaccines
are available)
Worse
Better
BetterWorse
Virus contained;
slow recovery
Virus contained; strong
growth rebound
Virus recurrence; slow
long-term growth;
muted world recovery
Virus recurrence; return
to trend growth;
strong world rebound
A4A3B1
A2A1
A1 A2 A3 A4 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5
B2
B5B4B3
Pandemic escalation;
prolonged downturn
without economic recovery
Pandemic escalation;
slow progression toward
economic recovery
Pandemic escalation;
delayed but full economic
recovery
31 6 16 6 15
59
11 3 9 2
100%
4 The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment
5. Exhibit 5
Exhibit 4
GES 2020
COVID Global Economic Sentiment
Exhibit 5 of 5
Since last month’s survey, the outlook for respondents’ home economies has
declined in most regions of the world.
1
Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2
In Latin America, n = 73; other developing markets n = 69; Middle East and North
Africa n = 38; Europe n = 436; India n = 101; Asia–Pacific n = 125; North America n = 260; Greater China n = 50. 3
In Latin America, n = 134;
other developing markets n = 91; Middle East and North Africa n = 79; Europe n = 784; India n = 151; Asia–Pacific n = 249; North America
n = 490; Greater China n = 143. 4
Includes respondents in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
Expected economic conditions in respondents’ economies, next 6 months,
% of respondents, region by office1
Latin America
No changeWorse Better
March 20202
April 20203
Other developing
markets
Middle East and
North Africa
Europe
India
Asia–Pacific
North America
Greater China4
43 21
37
19
31
31
23
26
6
36
14
14
40
22
23
43
28
67
55
30
55
50
51
36 86 1
4
4
4
7
8
6
6
17
21
22
26
26
45
63
79
76
75
68
66
49
31
13
COVID Global Economic Sentiment
Exhibit 2 of 4
Across regions, respondents in China and North America are much more
optimistic than others about their home economies’ prospects.
1
Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. In Greater China, n = 143; North America n = 490; Asia–Pacific n = 249; India n = 151;
Europe n = 784; Middle East and North Africa n = 79; other developing markets n = 91; and Latin America n = 134.
2
Includes respondents in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
Expected economic conditions in respondents’ economies, next 6 months,
% of respondents, region by office1
Worse
Latin America
Other developing
markets
Middle East and
North Africa
Europe
India
Asia–Pacific
North America
Greater China2
6
8
7
4
4
4
1
45
26
26
22
21
17
13
49
66
68
75
76
79
86
No change Better
31 6 63
5The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment
