The Covid Calendar is a living forward guidance paper on what plausibly may occur over the coming months in the USA by aligning various linked effects of the virus and potential and announced impacts/actions, rather than a specific prediction.

1. THE COVID CALENDAR
A living roadmap to chart the post-Coronavirus world
v. June 8, 2020 Gregory Adams
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
UPDATED

2. THE COVID CALENDAR
ANTICIPATED COVID CALENDAR - AS OF JUNE 8, 2020
SEPMAY JUN JUL AUG OCT NOV DEC
Stay-at-
Home
Month
* mix of official and anticipated dates
TBD
Surprise
Debate 1?
Debate 2?
TBD
Surprise
George
Floyd
Surprise
Dem
Convention
Rep
Convention
Phase 1
Curbside Retail, and
their Suppliers
Phase 2
Higher Risk
Workplaces Phase-in
Phase 3
END of STAY AT
HOME Order
Start of
School?
Xmas Season
Q2 EARNINGS
Georgia, Texas Updates
End of
School
VP
Selection
Reopening
Exuberance
Q2 Earnings
Reality
Breather
Election
Effervescence,
The New
Normal
Election
Hangover
Recovery?
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decision
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
9/3 CRA
Deadline
ThanksgivingMemorial
Day
B - 49%
T - 42%
Obamagate?
China?
💥
Unemployment
Hangover?
Debate 3?
NYC
LA
VaB

3. THE COVID CALENDAR
JUNE 8, 2020 - INSIGHTS AND WHAT’S HAPPENED SINCE OUR LAST UPDATE
▸ Pro-sports leagues, major cities, schools, etc. have
released schedules or draft guidelines to reopen -
with protocols and employee agreements in flux
▸ The anticipated May dip in the Stock Market, which
has roared back to or near pre-Covid-19 levels, has
not occurred yet...despite unemployment at
16.3%. We pushed possibility to June
▸ Three nearly simultaneous race relations cases
(Ahmad Arbery, Christian Cooper, and particularly
George Floyd) overnight shifted the country’s
attention from Covid-19 to protests, rioting and
race relations. We predict this issue will now
dominate the Political aspect of the Covid-
Calendar and related actions, reactions
JULY RESTART
AIRLINE BOOKINGS,
SEPTEMBER SCHOOL PROTOCOLS
LOCAL GOVERNMENT REOPENINGS
WHAT TO LOOK FOR:
DEMAND INDICATORS
Q2 EARNINGS PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS
REHIRE RATE
NEW STIMULUS?
STOCK MARKET DIP
RACE RELATIONS
REPUB/DEM RESPONSE
NFL, ETC. PROTESTS
CONVENTION RIOTS
VP PICK
TRUMP SHOCK
THE USA HAS ENTERED PHASE 1 OF THE OPENING UP AMERICA AGAIN (OUAA) FROM MAY 2020, WITH A FAIRLY SWIFT
MOVE TO PHASE 2 AT BEGINNING OF JULY, AND A PROLONGED BUT HYPED SHIFT INTO PHASE 3 FROM SEPTEMBER.

4. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID CALENDAR JUNE 8: ANTI-RACIST PROTESTS
THE OVERNIGHT EXPLOSION OF GLOBAL RACE
RELATIONS PROTESTS IS NOW THE KEY
OVERRIDING ISSUE OF THE COVID CALENDAR
ROADMAP
▸ ECONOMIC: Riots vs Reopening
▸ POLITICAL: Response and Acceptance
▸ SOCIAL: Celebrity, Media, Neighborhood Embracement
▸ PHASES: Covid 2nd Wave or No Wave

5. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - COVID-19 OVERSHADOWS THE CALENDAR
We are forecasting the
roadmap aligned to
overall Federal re-
opening guidelines
(Opening Up America
Again) three phases
Flattening or Surging of
Curve and growing
understanding of impact
of the virus will trigger
Phase shift (or not)
Governors tweaking and
adapting their specific
re-opening protocols
realtime will trigger
Phase shift (or not)
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
Opening Up
America Again
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Individuals
* Vulnerable individuals
should shelter in place
* Maximize physical distance
* Social Settings of more than
10 people should be
avoided
* Minimize non-essential
travel
* Vulnerable individuals
should shelter in place
* Maximize physical distance
* Social Settings of more than
50 people should be
avoided
* Non-essential travel can
resume
* Vulnerable individuals an
resume public interactions
but practice physical
distancing
* Low-risk populations should
consider minimizing time
spent in crowded
environments
Employers
* Encourage Telework
* Return to work in phases
* Close common areas
* Minimize non-essential
travel
* Encourage Telework
* Close common areas
* Resume unrestricted staffing
of workplaces
Specific
Employers
* Schools (eg. daycare, camp)
that are closed should
remain closed
* Large venues can operate
under strict physical
distancing protocols
* Gyms can open if they
adhere to strict physical and
sanitation protocols
* Bars should remain closed
* Schools (eg. daycare, camp)
can re-open
* Large venues can operate
under moderate physical
distancing protocols
* Gyms can remain open if
they adhere to strict physical
and sanitation protocols
* Bars may operate with
diminished standing-room
occupancy
* Large venues can operate
under limited physical
distancing protocols
* Gyms can remain open if
they adhere to standard
sanitation protocols
* Bars may operate with
increased standing-room
occupancy

6. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 HOTSPOTS: USA JUNE 8, 2020
▸ The numbers of new US cases and deaths have continued trending downwards
▸ NY, NJ, MA, PA and IL are the top 5 states for deaths per 100,000 people ranging from 48-128
▸ Nineteen states have an increasing case trend, up from six last update
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

7. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - STOCK MARKET PROLONGED VOLATILITY IS A BY-PRODUCT OF THE CALENDAR
A. May JUNE exuberance shakeout?
B. June retrenchment with further unemployment
impacts, assessment of overall positive COVID
status, anticipation of Q2 earnings
C. July/August earnings sobriety, further overlay of
positive COVID status, effects from political
conventions
D. September volatility from election uncertainty vs.
reopening of economy
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

8. THE COVID CALENDAR
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - JUNE 8, 2020
▸ Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the
unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent,
▸ In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction,
education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in
government continued to decline sharply
▸ The unemployment rate of workers with a bachelors degree or higher is
7.4%, while it is 19.9% for people with less than a High School diploma.
▸ The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff
decreased by 2.7 million in May to 15.3 million, following a sharp increase
of 16.2 million in April. Among those not on temporary layoff, the number
of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 295,000 in May to
2.3 million.
https://data.bls.gov/home.htm © Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
13.3%
16.3%
the “overall unemployment
rate would have been about 3
percentage points higher than reported,”
meaning the unemployment rate
would be about 16.3 percent for
May
20.9M
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/
2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-
misclassification-error/

9. THE COVID CALENDAR
THE STOCK MARKET RETURN HAS EMBRACED THE SHIFT TO OPENING, BUT HAS OUTPACED THE DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
▸ The Nasdaq-100, which carries a higher concentration
of big tech names than the three major averages, set a
new intraday record high on Thursday, wiping out all its
(losses) from pandemic.
▸ The S&P 500 itself on Friday was close to going
breakeven for 2020, having rallied 45% off the lows
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/the-recovery-from-the-coronavirus-sure-looks-v-shaped-going-by-these-charts.html

10. THE COVID CALENDAR
STOCK MARKET PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO COMPARISON - JUNE 8, 2020
▸ P/E ratios continue to go UP compared to one year ago, in spite of unclear forward earnings, suggesting values outpacing economic reality
▸ Ratios have also continue to grow since last update, potentially increasing overvalue risk
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

11. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - ELECTION 2020 DRIVES THE CALENDAR
A. President Trump desire to reopen prior to election
B. Democrats wanting to own the reopening process
C. Biden ability to display leadership, acceptability with VP
choice, debate performance
D. Trump / Biden gaff risk - expect 1-2 per month
E. September 3 Congressional Review deadline for Trump to
enact legislation (under the law, in order for a federal rule to
be considered in effect, it must have been submitted to
Congress for review for 60-days) to assure no immediate
repeal
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

12. THE COVID CALENDAR
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLLS - JUNE 8, 2020
▸ Biden continues to lead in
major polls
▸ NBC News Poll shows Biden
ahead 49% to 42%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

13. THE COVID CALENDAR
TRUMP SURPRISES: ‘CRAZY LIKE A FOX’
https://informedopinions.org/trumps-terrifying-communication-effectiveness/
BIDEN UKRAINE BOMSHELL
BIDEN SEXUAL
HARASSMENT REVEAL
FLASH STIMULUS
DISTRACTING FOREIGN
INCURSION
RACE RELATIONS
RESPONSE
Possibilities
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
▸ Trump’s propensity to disregard traditional protocol (withholding taxes, meet with Kim Jung-un) and shift
position (COVID-19 response, NRA) means just when things seem set expect the unexpected...
▸ he keeps it simple
▸ reinforce his key messages
▸ avoids the ‘data dump’
▸ addresses his audience head-on,
▸ sells the feeling, not the idea
▸ willingness to “tell it like it is”
▸ reinforce his brand
▸ owning the field.
▸ say things that are utterly memorable
▸ keeps listeners on their toes
▸ entertainment value of the resulting suspense

14. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - SOCIETY LIVES THE CALENDAR
A. Improving weather and hotter temperatures tests public &
private space closures
B. School closures without traditional group activities available
C. Holidays and the desire to enjoy accompanying traditions
D. August represents the 6th month of the Stay-at-Home order;
55% of Americans do not have 6 months of savings
E. Assumed (re)start of NBA, MLB, NFL. provides some pass times
F. School reopening plan, date - 2-3 months required to enable
once decided
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

15. THE COVID CALENDAR
THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ON FOOT TRAFFIC - JUNE 7, 2020
▸ The coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic has brought massive, rapid, and ongoing changes to how people interact with their surroundings.
▸ After a massive drop in physical movement, citizens of major metropolises are slowly increasing their pace, albeit still well under 50% of norm
▸ Movement trends continue to increase since last update - Home Depot is the only major monitored brand ahead of last year
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns
Here we show data from recent months on commercial activity (foot traffic trends) compared to the same time period from previous years to share insights into how the ongoing pandemic
is impacting the US economy and disrupting daily life.
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

16. THE COVID CALENDAR
THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ON FOOT TRAFFIC - JUNE 4, 2020
▸ Wyoming, Mississippi , Alaska
South Carolina and South Dakota
are closest to normal.
▸ Restaurants and Bars are at >50%
of their pre-Covid traffic in all
states
▸ Movie Theaters and Shopping
Malls continue to hover below the
50% threshold
▸ Supermarkets and General
Merchandise stores at near par to
pre-Covid traffic
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
This map and dashboard are built
from SafeGraph Patterns: a dataset
of foot traffic counts and visitor
insights to 5 million Points-of-
Interest. With data on over 5,500
retail chains, and 3 million mom-
and-pop businesses, this data
provides unparalleled insight into
US industry & economic recovery.

17. THE COVID CALENDAR
MOBILITY DATA FROM APPLE SHOWS A NEAR RECOVERY FOR DRIVING AND WALKING
▸ Mobility data from
Apple showed that
requests in directions
for driving and
walking had nearly
recovered to pre-
pandemic levels by
June 1

18. THE COVID CALENDAR
ABOUT THE COVID CALENDAR
▸ Unlike past historical pandemics and economic downturns, the current Covid-19 emergency has
truly overtaken the entire 195 country global community, effectively focusing the full attention of
the world’s intelligentsia and population at large on both isolating themselves for fear of catching
the virus, and working quickly to come up with solutions to end the self-induced pause to everyday
life.
▸ The Covid Calendar is a living forward guidance paper on what plausibly may occur over the
coming months in the USA by aligning various linked effects of the virus and potential and
announced impacts/actions, rather than a specific prediction.
▸ The focus will be on non-medical data and their effects over time, noting there may be certain
exceptions such as a significant surge, quick treatment or perhaps a cure.
▸ The document will be updated every 10-14 days to reflect significant changes to the impact data.