This document discusses security and the environment in the Philippines. It begins with an overview of the current state of the global and Philippine environments, noting increasing global temperatures and the Philippines experiencing more extreme weather events and ranking highly on climate risk indexes. It then covers debates around conceptualizing climate change as a security issue, providing arguments both for and against this framing. The document also presents several Philippine case studies exploring links between climate impacts, agriculture, and conflict. Finally, it discusses the military as a stakeholder in climate security and conceptualizing its strategic and tactical roles across pre-shock, trans-shock, and post-shock phases.

1. SECURITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
IN THE PHILIPPINES
Eula Bianca Villar, PhD
ejvillar@aim.edu
Adjunct Faculty
Asian Institute of Management
January 2023

2. AGENDA
1. Current State of the Environment in the World and in the Philippines
2. Debates on Security and Environment Nexus
3. Case Studies in the Philippines
4. Military as a stakeholder in Climate Security Discourse
For Discussion: Conceptualizing the Strategic and Tactical Role of Military
in Climate Security Discourse
5. Q&A

3. 1. CURRENT STATE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WORLD AND IN
THE PHILIPPINES

4. IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL
WARMING OF 1.5°C (2018)
• 2018 Special Report indicates that human induced-warming reached
approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Estimated global anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing
at 0.2°C per decade.
• Anthropocene – humans are responsible for changes in the climate.
• TARGET: Keep the emissions below 1.5 °C.
• Above this point, effects of climate risk become irreversible, including loss of
ecosystems.
• Race to Net Zero by mid-century

5. OBSERVED
GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE
(SOURCE: IPCC,
2018)

6. WHY DOES
THIS MATTER?
• Risks associated are a
cause for concern
• Image Source: IPCC (2018)

7. REAL IMPACTS AND ASSOCIATED RISKS:
REASONS FOR CONCERN (RFC)
• Extreme weather – hot days are getting hotter, wet days are getting
wetter.
• Sea level rise – average of 0.1m on a global scale (but differentiated
across regions)
• Implication for small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas to the risks of
saltwater intrusion, flooding, and damage to infrastructure.
• Climate-related risks to health, livelihood, food security, water supply,
human security and economic growth if global warming is not kept
below 1.5°C.

8. CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS SNAPSHOT:
ROADBLOCKS AND MILESTONES
1995
• COP 1 in
Berlin
1997
• Kyoto Protocol
2001
• Marrakesh
Accords
2009
• Copenhagen
Accord
2010
• Cancun
Agreement
2011
• Durban
Platform
2012
• Doha
Agreement
2016
• Paris
Agreement

9. RECENT WEF GLOBAL RISK
REPORT FINDINGS (2023)
Source: Global Risks Report 2023

10. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2020)

11. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2020)

12. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2020)
Long Term Climate Risk Index (2000-2018)

13. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2021)
Long Term Climate Risk Index (2000-2019)

14. THE PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
(2018)
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2020)

15. THE PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
(2019)
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2021)

16. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
(1998-2018)
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2020)

17. THE
PHILIPPINE
CONTEXT
(1998-2019)
Image Source:
Germanwatch (2021)

18. CLIMATE IMPACTS TO THE
PHILIPPINES
Philippines to lose 6% GDP annually by 2100
if it disregards climate change risks, but can
avert losses of up to 4% if it invests 0.5% of
its GDP by 2020 in climate change
adapatation. (Source: ADB Report, 2013)
IMPORTANT: THE COST OF DOING NOTHING
IS HIGH.
Image Source: Climate Change Commission
(2020)

19. CLIMATE IMPACTS TO THE
PHILIPPINES
Philippines to lose 6% GDP annually by
2100 if it disregards climate change risks,
but can avert losses of up to 4% if it
invests 0.5% of its GDP by 2020 in climate
change adapatation. (Source: ADB Report,
2013)
Image Source: Climate Change
Commission (2020)

20. SOME KNOWN EXAMPLES OF
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN
THE COUNTRY
Image Source: Climate Change
Commission (2020)
Note: most recent example of extreme
weather conditions were the triple
typhoons that occurred in late 2020:
Quinta, Ulysses, and Rolly

21. THE PHILIPPINES
AS PARTY TO PARIS
AGREEMENT
• The Philippines emits less than
0.33% of the total global GHG
emissions
• IMPORTANT: despite this seemingly
small percentage of contribution, it
is important to note that the
countries GHG has been increasing
over the years
• Being party to the Paris Agreement,
the country is eligible to access
climate finance for developing
countries, including disaster risk
reduction and climate change
adaptation and mitigation.
• Philippine Access: to Green
Climate Fund (1 single-author
project, 3 multi-author projects)
Image Source: Climate Transparency

22. PHILIPPINE GHG CONTRIBUTIONS

23. EXISTING POLICY MEASURES FOR
CLIMATE ACTION IN THE PHILIPPINES
R.A. 8435: Agriculture
and Fisheries
Modernization Act
1997
R.A. 8743: Clean Air
Act 1999
R.A. 9003: Solid Waste
Management Act
2000
R.A. 9275: Clean
Water Act
R.A. 9512: National
Environmental
Awareness and
Education Act 2008
R.A. 9513L Renewable
Energy Act 2008
R.A. 9729: Climate
Change Act 2009

24. 2. DEBATES ON ENVIRONMENT-
SECURITY NEXUS

25. FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION:
SHOULD THE CLIMATE BE
SECURITIZED?
More specifically, is climate change a security concern?

26. YOUR THOUGHTS
YES NO

27. POLICY RHETORIC
• “There is little scientific dispute that if we
do nothing, we will face more drought,
famine and mass displacement that will fuel
more conflict for decades.” –Barack Obama
during Nobel Peace Prize Acceptance
Speech in 2009
• “Researchers at Berkeley, Stanford, New
York and Harvard Universities, looking at
rainfall and temperature records in Africa
between 1980 and 2002, indicated that
global warming is strongly related to the
incidence of armed conflict, with a one
degree temperature rise increasing the
potential for conflict by fifty per cent. I
believe it is too early to use fool-proof
scientific quantifications, but the linkage is
clearly there.” –Antonio Guteres in 2011
during UN Security Council Briefing
Contestations on whether or not to
securitize climate (at party-level, this tends
to be contested)
From policy angle, certain proclamations
from world leaders imply link between
security and climate.

28. ACADEMIC DEBATE
• Large N studies do not demonstrate
significance on direct effects between
climate change and armed conflict. (It
may be a moderator or mediator, but no
direct effects)
• However, singular case studies
demonstrate anecdotal evidence that
fragile countries that are at high risk of
extreme weather can breed conflict (as
evidenced by cases in sub-Saharan
Africa).
• CRITICAL: do not overinflate security
threat, but do not understate the cost to
human security and potential future
impacts.
Evidence is not convergent.

29. PARAMETERS TO TAKE INTO
CONSIDERATION WHEN
EMPIRICALLY GROUNDING
CLIMATE-SECURITY NEXUS
• Operationalizing armed conflict
• Definition of armed conflict according to
UCD/PRIO
• “a contested incompatibility that concerns
government and/or territory where the use of
armed force between two parties, of which at
least one is the government of a state, results
in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a
calendar year.”
• Operationalizing climate change through
drought and excess precipitation
• Levels vs deviation model
• Other factors for consideration
• Governance
• Form of government
• Democratic institutions

30. ARGUMENTS FROM THE
SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
• H1: Drought increases local risk of civil
war.
• H2: The effect of drought on civil war risk
is larger in politically marginalized areas.
• FINDING: Not significant (the authors
call it a “nonfinding”)
IMPLICATIONS:
• The primary causes of war are political,
not environmental.
• War narrative should not eclipse the
need for socio-economic interventions
that can aid fragile communities in
adapting to climate change.
• Limitations on data are also important to
acknowledge (e.g. long term effects are
not yet established).
1. Overemphasis of Climate Wars is
misleading and possibly self-defeating
Theisen, O. M., Holtermann, H., & Buhaug,
H. (2011). Climate wars? Assessing the
claim that drought breeds
conflict. International Security, 36(3), 79-
106.

31. ARGUMENTS FROM THE
SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
• Both academe and policy have more
information regarding climate risks, and
there are some initiatives undertaken to
mainstream the importance of climate
security.
• The key question remains, what specific
policy has to be undertaken to address
climate security risks?
IMPLICATIONS:
• Environmental peacebuilding – rooted
on consensus building, trust building,
cooperative capacity to manage scarce
resources.
• Conflict resolution and mediation is a
critical capability to promote
environmental peacebuilding.
2. Instead of focusing on the securitization
of climate, environmental peacebuilding
might be more appropriate.
Busby, J. W. (2021). Beyond internal
conflict: The emergent practice of climate
security. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1),
186-194.

32. ARGUMENTS FROM THE
SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
• The causal pathway to consider in the
absence of direct link is as follows:
• Climate change impacts on economic
growth, and economic growth implications
on armed conflict, which is contingent on
the political system (in favor of democratic
states).
• FINDINGS:
• No significance on the pathway model.
• However, there is a weak mediating link of
political system characteristics between
conflict and climate change.
IMPLICATIONS:
• Need to revisit parameters.
• Closing the debate on direct links, and
study more closely the mediated links.
3. There might be no direct link, but we
should consider pathways, and also
moderating links.
Koubi, V., Bernauer, T., Kalbhenn, A., &
Spilker, G. (2012). Climate variability,
economic growth, and civil
conflict. Journal of peace research, 49(1),
113-127.

33. 3. PHILIPPINE CASE STUDIES

34. EVIDENCE ON CONFLICT
PROPENSITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES
• “Results suggest that the predicted shift
towards wetter wet seasons and drier dry
seasons will be harmful to agriculture and
lead to an increase in civil conflict.”
• “Moreover, they suggest that rainfall is
related to civil conflict, at least in part,
through its effect on agriculture.”
IMPLICATIONS:
• Note: they do not argue direct effects, but
suggest mediated effects.
• Lagged rainfall may be a robust predictor
of conflict intensity – given that the effect
of rainfall is realized at harvest.
• Seasonality should be taken into
consideration (albeit in opposite direction
as observed for agricultural production).
• Effect of rainfall on conflict appears to be
more pronounced in provinces with greater
than median proportion of total area
devoted to rice (water-intensive crop).
Crost, B., Duquennois, C., Felter, J. H., &
Rees, D. I. (2018). Climate change,
agricultural production and civil conflict:
Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of
Environmental Economics and
Management, 88, 379-395.

35. OTHER CASES
• Kidapawan crisis
• ”Looting” during Yolanda
• NOTE: the mechanisms are not fully
unpacked in this paper, but the authors
suggest the need to look at how extreme
weather can further exacerbate social
vulnerabilities, which could in turn lead
to conflict.
Delina, L. L., & Cagoco-Guiam, R. (2018).
Extreme weather event–social conflict
nexus in the Philippines. Journal of
Peacebuilding & Development, 13(1), 90-
95.

36. 4. THE MILITARY AS A
STAKEHOLDER

37. MILITARY AS A STAKEHOLDER
• There are evolving roles that the military can play as climate change
evolves.
• There is a time for supporting, there is a time for leading.
• Structural strength of the military in mobilizing action.
Pre-shock Trans-shock Post-Shock

38. FOR DISCUSSION: CONCEPTUALIZING THE STRATEGIC
AND TACTICAL ROLE OF MILITARY IN CLIMATE
SECURITY DISCOURSE
Pre-shock Trans-shock Post-Shock

39. 5.
QUESTIONS?