As the impact of COVID-19 continues to be felt, non state actors (NSA) including business leaders, investors, and local government leaders globally have (in alignment with the UNSG) been vocal in their support for a Green, Resilient Recovery (GRR) and the opportunity to “build back better” by accelerating the transition to a resilient, zero emissions future.
Many global academic and technical experts have published widely on core principles to underpin a successful recovery, and have outlined emerging evidence on the compelling economic case for GRR, alongside critical co-benefits in public health, decent jobs and enhanced resilience to climate change.
This document seeks to bring together in a single place an analysis published by key members of the NSA community on GRR, with four key objectives:
– Summarize and consolidate key insights, providing a centralised reference point for the broad base of published work to date
– Lay out the definitive economic and social case for GRR, and its implications to climate crisis, as it exists so far
– Highlight sector-specific asks for GRR in the areas of transport, power, buildings, heavy industry and nature
– Provide a view on the policy action and NSA proof points (evolving daily) that demonstrate ongoing commitment from NSA actors to GRR
This paper draws directly upon the exceptional body of work and perspectives to date published by leading organizations, initiatives and partners of the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action, including:
• IMF
• ETC, MPP, WEF
• Smiths School of Economics
• WMB
• PRI
• VividEconomics
• ICP Hub
The situation is evolving at pace, and members of the NSA community are continuing to advance the GRR work and action agenda. In addition to supporting positive action on GRR by policymakers and NSA as part of our broader objectives, these members will:
– Continue to represent and provide a platform for the best thinking of the NSA community in advocating positive response to GRR from policymakers
– Investigate and publish a more detailed business case to reflect the benefits of GRR as an opportunity to accelerate climate action and the transition to a resilient, zero emissions future, to be published in September 2020.
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Green growth can be seen as a way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and unsustainable natural resource use.
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The Case for a Green Resilient Recovery
1. JUNE 2020
Briefing on non-state actor response
The Case for a Green,
Resilient Recovery
2. 1
Context
• As the impact of COVID-19 continues to be felt, non state actors (NSA) including business leaders, investors, and local government leaders globally have (in
alignment with the UNSG) been vocal in their support for a Green, Resilient Recovery (GRR) and the opportunity to “build back better” by accelerating the
transition to a resilient, zero emissions future.
• Many global academic and technical experts have published widely on core principles to underpin a successful recovery, and have outlined emerging evidence
on the compelling economic case for GRR, alongside critical co-benefits in public health, decent jobs and enhanced resilience to climate change.
Purpose of this document
• This document seeks to bring together in a single place an analysis published by key members of the NSA community on GRR, with four key objectives:
– Summarize and consolidate key insights, providing a centralised reference point for the broad base of published work to date
– Lay out the definitive economic and social case for GRR, and its implications to climate crisis, as it exists so far
– Highlight sector-specific asks for GRR in the areas of transport, power, buildings, heavy industry and nature
– Provide a view on the policy action and NSA proof points (evolving daily) that demonstrate ongoing commitment from NSA actors to GRR
Acknowledgements
This paper draws directly upon the exceptional body of work and perspectives to date published by leading organizations, initiatives and partners of the Marrakech
Partnership for Global Climate Action, including:
• IMF
• ETC, MPP, WEF
• Smiths School of Economics
• WMB
• PRI
• VividEconomics
• ICP Hub
Next steps
• The situation is evolving at pace, and members of the NSA community are continuing to advance the GRR work and action agenda. In addition to supporting
positive action on GRR by policymakers and NSA as part of our broader objectives, these members will:
– Continue to represent and provide a platform for the best thinking of the NSA community in advocating positive response to GRR from policymakers
– Investigate and publish a more detailed business case to reflect the benefits of GRR as an opportunity to accelerate climate action and the transition to a
resilient, zero emissions future, to be published in September
Executive Summary | Context and objectives
3. 2
GRR offers a unique opportunity in both scale and urgency to align post-crisis growth with the Paris Accord and revive the economy, deliver decent jobs in
future-facing industries
• Current crisis presents a significant moment in time, where short term policy decisions will have long and far reaching impact on climate
• The $8tn of COVID-19 stimulus is already 13x times as much as 2018 climate financing – after 2008 green stimulus reached 16% total stimulus spend
Studies suggest that green stimulus projects have both superior short and long run economic multipliers, alongside major public health wins-wins like clean air
• Estimates suggest clean energy infrastructure and efficiency creates 3x more jobs than stimulus in fossil fuels
• Other policy types that can deliver high climate impact alongside effective, rapid stimulus including shovel-ready building retrofits, green R&D, natural
infrastructure and worker retraining
To maximize the benefit of GRR, stimulus should focus on long-term structural changes and be supported by overarching policy framework
• In 2008, failure to adopt wider policy support dampened impact of green stimulus measures following the GFC
• Short term response holds some climate benefits, but investment likely to be most effective in longer term recovery phase
An unprecedented cross-section of non-state actors (NSAs) including businesses, investors and cities have reiterated commitment to climate ambition and citied
their support for GRR
• GRR has been supported by 155 companies with a market cap of $2.4tn, 109 investors with AuM of $11.9tn, 40 mayors and >200 UK NSAs
• Large majorities (~2/3s) of people around the world hope governments will prioritise climate change in COVID-19 economic responses
• Launch of “Race to Zero”-- an international campaign for a healthy, resilient zero carbon recovery. Led by the UNFCCC Champions for Climate Action, it
brings together the largest ever net zero coalition, covering 992 businesses, 449 cities, 21 regions, 505 universities and 38 of the biggest investors.
For 5 sectors, key policy asks from the NSA community have been identified and summarized for ongoing reference and enhancement
• In power generation: eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and coal will compliment renewable capacity auctions, smart grid investment, and R&D in energy
storage
• In road transport: accelerating EV subsidies, bailouts conditional to EV commitments, investment in supporting urban infrastructure to support modal shift
• In aviation: bailouts should be conditional on SAF commitments, encourage modal shift to rail, and R&D on next generation fuels and offsetting technology
• In industry: research, development and demonstration (RD&D) of hydrogen, biomethane and CCUS leading to deployment in industrial clusters
• In built environment: regulations, incentives & public procurement of retrofits, net zero carbon new builds, and resilient green infrastructure (digital
connectivity, waste, flood mitigation etc.)
• In nature: labour intensive forest planting, ecosystem restoration should accompany R&D and incentives for sustainable agriculture
Executive Summary | Key messages
5. 4
COVID-19 has presented a unique and
urgent opportunity in the fight against
climate change
Progress on climate
change will depend
significantly on policy
choices in the coming
six months; the right
choices could drive a
long-term downward
trend in GHG emissions
—Hepburn, Stern and Stiglitz
(2020)
Source: Hepburn, Stern and Stiglitz (2020), 'Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on
climate change?'
6. 5
BC 08.Jun.20:
Global business
leaders
Statement reaffirming
commitment to 1.5'C path,
including advocacy and
support for 1.5'C aligned
policy
155Companies have
signed
$2.4t
Mkt cap5m
Employees
Mayors
Statement pledging to
build a better, more
sustainable and fairer
society out of the
recovery from Covid-19
40cities have
signed
UK non-state
actors
Call to the UK government
to deliver a Covid-19
recovery plan that builds a
more inclusive, stronger
and resilient economy
>200
UK companies
have signed
Investors and
financial institutions
Call to policymakers for a
sustainable recovery by
incorporating climate
conditions into financial
support for companies
$11.9t
Assets under
management or
advice
109investors have
signed
Across the NSA community there is strong support for a Green Resilient Recovery,
and a unified call for continued climate leadership in the current crisis
Source: SBTi; Prince of Wales Corporate Leaders Group, PRI, C40
7. 6
Large majorities of people around the world hope governments will prioritise
climate change in COVID-19 economic responses
1. Full question was: Question: To What extent do you agree or disagree with the following: In the economic recovery after COVID-19, it is important that government actions
prioritize climate change?; n = 500 to 1000 per country; total of 28,039 online adults respondents aged 16-74; fieldwork dates 17-19 April 2020, where results do not sum to 100%,
this may be due to rounding effects, Multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Source: IPSOS MORI, April 22, 2020
Is it important that government actions responding to C-19 prioritize climate change?
Survey results, April 20201
65% Strongly agree/trend to agree 25% Trend to disagree/Strong disagree
65%
81%
80%
80%
66%
64%
63%
63%
62%
61%
60%
58%
57%
57%
57%
10%
6%
6%
4%
12%
14%
10%
11%
12%
9%
16%
11%
9%
10%
11%
25%
13%
14%
16%
22%
22%
27%
26%
26%
30%
24%
31%
34%
33%
32%
Average
Italy
India
Brazil
Mexiko
France
China
Japan
Spain
Russia
Canada
UK
Australia
Germany
US
8. 7
Stimulus provides a major opportunity for low carbon transition given the scale
of economic investment
$8.0
Tr
Total Climate
Finance 2017/18
$0.6
Tr
Total COVID-19
stimulus to date
x12.8
Stimulus is already ~13x 2018 climate finance
In 2008 even low percentages of "green" stimulus (~16%) translated
into significant volumes of money
79
64
34
19 15 13 13 11 9 6
60
80
0
40
20
Green stimulus as per cent of total stimulus by the end of 2009 (in%)
.
Source: Barron's, CPI, Green Stimulus Measures, ILO (2010)
Note: EU direct=EU wide package. EU total=including individual EU countries additional stimulus packages
KOR
EU
(Direct) CHN FRA GBR GER USA
EU
(Total) CAN JPN
~$60bn ~$25bn ~$22bn ~$10bn ~$10bn ~$20bn ~$110bn ~$60bn ~$5bn ~$40bn
16% global avg.
9. 8
Source: UN Secretary General
Principles
outlined by
UN for Green
& Resilient
Recovery
6
We need to work together as an international
community
Fossil fuel subsidies must end, polluters pay
and public funds go to sustainable sectors
Money must drive a shift from grey to
green and resilient
C-19 money must deliver new jobs and
businesses through a clean green transition
Taxpayer rescue of companies must be tied to
achieving green jobs and sustainable growth
Climate risks must be incorporated into
financial, infrastructure & policy decisions
10. 9
…in addition to securing
co-benefits
Boosts to adjacent
industries, by accelerating
R&D in underfunded
sectors
Correcting for the
undervaluing of natural
resources by the market
Securing the public health
gains of lower
environmental pollution
Green investments can deliver high economic
performance…
1. The Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health (2017) values global welfare losses from pollution impacts on health at
6.2% of GDP or $4.6tn
Source: Michael Jacobs for the Grantham Instiute (2012), 'Green Growth: Economic Theory and Political Discourse'; Hepburn,
Stern and Stiglitz (2020), 'Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?';
Brookings Institute (2012), 'Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy'; IMF Working Paper (2013), 'Growth Forecast Errors and
Fiscal Multipliers'
…which are boosted by the effects of stimulus
in recessions….
High short run multiplier driven by greater labour
intensity of green measures
Persistent long-run effect from cost-efficiencies
allowing greater business and consumer spending
1.5-
2.5
Estimates of economic multiplier from expansionary
fiscal spending in a recession
11. 10
Policymakers and economists have identified five core policy types that can
delivery a high climate impact alongside effective, rapid stimulus
High
Negative
impact
High
Positive
impact
Potential
climate
Impact
HighLong-Run multiplerLow
E
B
P
F
J
A
I C
H G
Q
R
W
V
KO D
M
X
S
High climate-impact, high economic
impact policies2
Speed
Fast Slow157 experts 34 experts
Number of experts rating policy in Top 10
Clean physical infrastructure investments
Building efficiency retrofits
Investment in education and training to
address unemployment1
Clean R&D Investment
Natural capital investment for ecosystem
resilience and regeneration
1. Both immediate unemployment from COVID-19 and structural unemployment from decarbonisation 2. Full table of policies surveyed is at back of document
Source: Hepburn, O'Callaghan, Stiglitz and Stern (2020), ''Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?'.
Note: A sixth policy lever of rural support spending is identified in Low and Middle Income Countries, which is of greater effectiveness than Clean R&D Investment. See additional slide in
pre-read for policy definitions
12. 11
Existing analysis suggests a positive business case for green stimulus (I/II)
Investment in clean energy infrastructure and efficiency creates 3x more jobs than stimulus in fossil fuels
1. Based on averages of multiple technologies
Note: Based on input-output modelling of economies with synthetic "new" clean industries to capture the full effects, rather than post-intevention empirical assessment
Source: Heidi Garrett-Peltier (2016), Green Versus Brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-
output model
Renewable
technologies
Energy
Efficiency
Fossil Fuels
4.50
4.06
4.26
4.67
4.55
4.59
4.55
3.98
3.66
6.16
0.94
0.70
1.18
2.99
3.46
2.98
2.73
2.98
3.13
3.22
3.43
3.10
2.77
1.71
1.49
1.92
Industrial
EE
Smart
Grid1
Mass Transit and Freight
Rail
Average: Fossil
Fuels1
7.4
1
Oil and
Gas1
Coa
l1
Geotherm
al
2.6
5
7.2
4
Average: Energy
Efficiency
Average: Renewable
Technologies
3.1
0
Win
d1
Sola
r1
Hydr
o
Home Weatherization and Commercial
Retrofits1
7.7
2
7.5
3
7.4
9
2.20
7.5
2
7.4
0
7.7
7
6.7
6
8.9
3
Total
FTE
xx
x
Legen
d
Direct
FTE
Indirect
FTE
Jobs created per $1M of stimulus
+5 extra jobs created in
renewables/efficiency vs. fossil fuels
13. 12
Existing analysis suggests a positive business case for green stimulus (II/II)
Superior job impacts of green stimulus driven by greater labour intensity of renewables per GWh generated
Source: UKERC (2014): Low Carbon Jobs “The Evidence for net job creation from policy support for energy efficiency and renewable energy
Note: Number in brackets shows number of studies reviewed in report; Coal (5), Lig (1), CCS (1), Gas (4), Shale (1), Geothermal (3), Hydro (1),
Biomass (5), LFG (1), Wind (15), OffSW (1), Solar PV (5), CSP (3), EE (3), EE-H (1)
+1.0
0.4
Jobs per annual GWh generated
Additional jobs
generated per
annual GWh
switched from fossils
to renewabels
UK power
generation
employment
Intensity
9
6
0
3
Gross job/annual GWh
Lignite
Coal
CCS
Gas
Shale
Geothermal
Hydro
Biomass
LFG
Wind
Offshore
Wind
SolarPV
Concentrate
d
SolarPower
Energy
Efficiency
Household
Energy
Efficiency
Direct Indirect InducedAverage
14. 13
Truly transformative green policies can only be delivered as part of a recovery
phase due to longer lead-ins to lock in structural change
Short term focus on fast-acting
liquidity support for households.
However, need for climate alignment
via:
• Removal or no expansion of fossil
fuel subsidies given low oil price
• Encouraging positive changes via
subsidies, e.g. solar panel and EV
purchase incentives
• Guaranteed or low cost loans for
green improvements (e.g.
insulation retrofits)
Cash subsidies are low multiplier and
risk locking in high-carbon
trajectories. Conditional bailouts to
maintain employment and market
confidence conditional on:
• Commitments to net zero by
2050 – with tangible 2030
commitments
• Commitments to report in line
with TCFD
• Commitments to phase out
relationships with thermal coal
over the next 5 years
• Sector specific commitments on
measurable progress over the
next 5 years
Stimulus aligned to boosting
demand and climate impact:
• Green Infrastructure (EV
charging, railways, dams, smart
grids, digital infra. etc.)
• Green R&D (materials, energy
storage, heat exchangers, CCUS)
• Retraining for greener
occupations to ensure a just
transition
• Natural infrastructure (e.g.
planting trees)
• Retrofit stimulus (e.g. for
insulation/heat pumps)
• Connectivity infrastructure
• Fund demonstrations and
industrial hubs of green
hydrogen, chemicals, and steel
as well as CCUS
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings" Green infrastructure, RD&D1
and industry stimulus
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
Wider policy changes required to
lock in structural societal change and
ensure lasting impact of GRR
• Carbon taxes and border
adjustment carbon trade taxes
• Protections for natural resources
(e.g. forest protection)
• Redesign electricity markets to
reward RE, storage, demand side
response and flexibility
• Green public procurement
• Worker training focused on
cleaner industry skills
• International collaboration
(Mission innovation)
• Supporting behavioral change,
(e.g. low emissions zones)
• Regulation (e.g. new build
efficiency regs.)1. Research, development, and demonstration
17. 16
Green stimulus potential: GRR has the potential to reshape the industry
delivering better jobs and a cleaner environment
Increase subsidies for EVs
Trade-in credits for old cars ("cash
for clunkers") should used as much as
possible for EVs alone
Bailouts may not be required for
majority of industry but where given
should be conditional on:
• agreed share of EVs in fleet
sales by 2025
• protecting R&D into EVs
Targeted as loans or grants to small
innovative green transport
companies (Arrivalm Rivian, NIO
etc.) especially at risk
• EV charging infrastructure
• Improving public transport (e.g.
cycle lanes, electric bus routes,
intra&inter city trains)
• Trials of hydrogen, BEV, and e-
highways for heavy vehicles
• R&D into batteries
• Support and retrain ICE
employees and support just
transition
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings" Green infrastructure, RD&D and
industry stimulus
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
Transform policy ecosystem to
support green
• Create low emission zones
• Increase no car zones
• Center design around cycling
and walking
• Allow EVs perks like carpool
lanes, cheaper parking etc.
• Limit ICE registrations
• Publicly procure BEV
• Promote electric micro mobility
Not exhaustive
Road
18. 17
Green stimulus potential: GRR can reshape aviation away from its high
emissions growth trajectory
n/a Bailouts common and more will be
needed due to massive reduction in
air travel. Conditions should be
attached
• Commitments to a
portion of SAF
• Commitments to cut
regional flights
• Commitments to upgrade
fleet and meet certain
efficiency targets
"Cash for clunkers" program to scrap
old aircraft
Green infrastructure investment
• Improve public transport (e.g.
high speed train lines) in order
to reduce short distance
aviation demand
Green R&D funding
• Zero emissions aviation R&D,
including biofuels, synthetic
fuels and electric planes (for
short distance) - via multi-
airline public private
partnerships
• CCUS and offsetting emissions
technology
• Research on non-CO" aviation
climate impacts
Transform policy ecosystem to
support green
• Maintain CORSIA base year of
2020 – which will entail more
offsetting
• Support regional rail
• Introduce sufficient taxation on
airline emissions – can be done
by altering air passenger duty
and varying it by distance
• Cut public procurement of
flights in favor of rail
• Mandates to increase SAF
production and use
• Mandatory emissions disclosure
by airlines
• Efficiency standards for aircrafts
• Offsetting requirements for
domestic flights
Source: Desktop research, BCG analysis, press search
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings"
Response Recovery
Overarching green policyGreen infrastructure, R&D and
industry stimulus
Aviation
19. 18
NSA actors in
the transport
sector are
reiterating their
commitments to
net zero
"If governments in some way subsidise a return to the old world, it’ll
be a waste of money. They should use the money to promote new
technology, as they were planning to do before coronavirus"
-Hakan Samuelsson, Volvo CEO
"Science tells us we must curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate
change…
This means targeting net zero emissions, not just for our operations
and facilities, but more fundamentally, ensuring the products and
technologies we are proud to pioneer can be used in a way that
generates net zero emissions."
-Warren East, Rolls-Royce CEO
"The strategy sets out how the West Midlands can rebuild its
economy in a way that drives green and inclusive growth - …
• accelerating the transition of the region’s automotive industry
to electric vehicles
• rolling out charging infrastructure for electric vehicles at
scale
• active transport initiatives, for example pop-up cycle lanes
and widened pavements."
-West Midlands Combined Authority
21. 20
Green stimulus potential: There is an opportunity for green recovery,
increasing jobs and boosting GVA while tackling emissions
• Fossil fuel subsidies
especially in the developing
world should be avoided
(e.g. petrol subsidies) – low
oil price is a chance to
remove these
• Subsidies for rooftop solar
can accelerate deployment
Bailouts conditional on commitments
to:
• Set science based emissions
reduction targets & net zero by 2050
• Disclosure of climate-related risk in
line with TCFD
• Phase out thermal coal mining
& power generation
• Further renewable energy
deployment for power generators
• Very low levels (max 0.2%) of
methane leakage for oil and gas
companies
• Launch/continue competitive
renewable power auctions to
derisk private investment
• Utilise government-sponsored
finance institutions to lend to
renewable power projects
• Enable investment in smart
transmission/distribution
systems and interconnectors
• Invest in R&D in enabling green
technologies (long-duration
batteries, green hydrogen
projects, smart grids)
Source: Desktop research, BCG analysis, press search
Short term liquidty Bailouts with green "strings"
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
• Affirm and extend policies
promoting renewable energy
solutions
• Fast-track/streamline
permitting for new projects
• Enable corporate renewable
energy procurement
• Ensure grids give priority to RE
and reward smartness, storage
and flexibility
• Revise education/labour
policies to foster just transition
through retraining and skills to
help works transition to
renewable energy jobs
Green infrastructure, RD&D and
industry stimulus
22. 21
Leading
players in the
energy sector
have
reaffirmed
commitments
"Even at this time of immediate challenge we must also maintain
the focus on the long term … which is why we aim to be a net zero
emissions energy business by 2050 or sooner"
- Ben van Beurden, Shell CEO
"We are therefore writing to ask that the economic recovery plans
you are developing align with the UK’s wider goals and deliver a
clean, just recovery, that creates quality employment and builds a
more sustainable, inclusive and resilient UK economy for the
future. "
-Climate Leadership Group letter (209 signatures)
Source: Press search
"There’ll be no healthy economy without a healthy population and
a healthy planet. Investment to rebuild Britain after coronavirus
should be aligned with industries and projects that support net
zero. Prioritising investment in new low carbon infrastructure and
energy projects will unlock high-quality jobs and investment in
towns and regions that have been hardest hit by the crisis.”"
- Colin Matthews, EDF Energy Chairman
24. 23
Green stimulus potential: Greening the built environment can provide
immediate jobs, relieve fuel poverty, increase resilience to climate change
and improve health and wellbeing
Support widespread retrofit: insulation,
power & heat sources, efficiency
controls
• Supply green mortgages for energy
efficient retrofit
• 0% VAT for energy efficient retrofit
• Subsidies for renewable and low
carbon technologies, e.g. solar
• Domestic energy efficiency salary
sacrifice schemes
• Financial incentives to retrofit
commercial buildings whilst empty
due to COVID
Incentivise net zero new builds
• Incentives for low carbon
operational performance and
construction methods, e.g. grants,
subsidies and technical assistance
Construction companies requiring bail
out to sign science based commitments
that align with 1.5 degrees target,
publish plans, take immediate action
and publicly report progress.
Additionally, calculate and publicly
report life cycle carbon emissions on all
projects.
Projects requiring support to conduct
and report life cycle assessments,
selecting lowest carbon options.
Fund training programmes for retrofit
and net zero buildings construction.
Invest in retrofit: insulation, power &
heat sources, efficiency controls
• Nationwide retrofits of low income
inefficient households
• Retrofit public buildings whilst
closed due to COVID
• Infrastructure retrofit to mitigate
inefficiencies, e.g. pipelines
Invest in net zero new builds
• R&D in net zero construction
methods (incl. low carbon
materials).
Invest in infrastructure that enables low
carbon services
• Waste infrastructure to support
collection, reuse and recycling
• Retrofit pipelines, switch to low
carbon power, EVs charging
infrastructure, rail
• Digital infra to support less travel
Invest in green infrastructure for
resilience and health & wellbeing
• Flood defences, local green space
and biodiversity
• Greening public procurement: for
all new building and infrastructure
projects, national- and state-level
gov’ts set ceilings for embodied
and operational carbon intensity,
which are to decrease over time
• Ratchet up energy efficiency
requirements for all buildings
including end date for natural gas
installations
• Institute performance-based
material efficiency standards to
reduce waste and encourage
material reuse and recycling to
improve efficiency of capital
investment by 30-50%
• Legislate public reporting of life
cycle emissions (construction and
operation) of built assets to inform
future policy and targets
• Legislate life cycle assessments at
the early design stages to obtain
planning permission
Source: Desktop research, BCG analysis, press search
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings"
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
Green infrastructure, RD&D and
industry stimulus
25. 24
Leading
businesses
have spoken
out on the
importance
of zero-
carbon
homes and
buildings
"UK companies stand ready to help the government realise its
2050 zero carbon target. A key part of this requires the UK to
deliver zero-carbon homes at scale ...we strongly support investing
in better housing for all, especially in areas such as insulation and
low carbon heating. This will help our climate change goals and
support our economic recovery by creating new job opportunities
nationwide."
-Thierry Garnier, Kingfisher plc CEO
Source: Press search
"COVID-19 has shown both the fragility and the resilience of
society and the ecosystem and as we enter the recovery period,
we must take the opportunity to build back better by focussing on
a green and just recovery – a realisation of our purpose to shape
the future of real estate for a better world."
-Chris Ireland. JLL UK CEO
27. 26
Green stimulus potential: Building back better in heavy industry dependent on
generating sufficient investment in decarbonization technology
• Direct liquidity support for
consumers unlikely, given scale
of B2B operations
• Extensive RD&D on syngas,
biomethane generation, cement
chemistries, new materials, high
temperature iron ore
electrolysis, & CCUS
• Concessional funding of
industrial-scale clean hydrogen
projects and application in
chemicals, 10-12 steel
demonstrations, shipping ports,
and plane designs
• Incentivize "greening" of supply
chains and sourcing clean power
for operations
• Align int’l market standards for
structural timber
• Greening public procurement:
public sector projects have
targets for carbon intensity of
materials
• Set minimum product standards,
or carbon border tax adjustment
for imported products
• More rigorous carbon tax/pricing
for heavy industry
• Launch product standards
limiting carbon intensity of
operations
• Conditional bailouts for
manufacturers with
commitments to reduce
emissions intensity of operations
• Ensure that access to any long
term redevelopment funds
includes provisions for
investment in hydrogen, CCUS,
and other applied RD&D
collaboration
Source: Desktop research, BCG analysis, press search
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings"
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
Green infrastructure, RD&D and
industry stimulus
28. 27
Industrial and
end
manufacturers
have spoken
out in support
of GRR
"European Aluminium represents the entire value chain of the
aluminium industry in Europe … Building on the European
aluminium industry's long commitment to sustainability, we
endorse the European Green Deal to remain one of the pillars of
Europe's recovery plan"
- European Aluminium Position paper
Source: Press search
"I firmly believe that achieving a green economic recovery,
supported by both policy and public investment, will lead to job
creation across the UK and long-term economic success. Now is
the time for us all to take the leap from this uncertainty and
create a well-balanced, sustainable economy that will flourish."
- Carl Ennis, Siemens UK CEO
"Uncertain times often result in dynamic change for the
betterment of society; and despite the evident challenges that
2020 and the unprecedented impact of Covid-19 will bring to the
Global economy, we at Mitsubishi Electric believe that an
increased focus on innovative technology is now more important
than ever. We remain committed to not only producing products
and services that work towards the Government’s target of net
zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but through the impact of
the present crisis on the UK we predict an accelerated alignment
between the ‘new normal’ and a shift to greener technology, the
long term opportunities of which are limitless."
-Deane Flint, Mitsubishi Electric Europe Branch President
30. 29
Green stimulus potential: Specific policies for a green recovery in Nature focus
on ensuring investment in natural infrastructure, tightening protections
• Paying people to plant trees (as
seen in Pakistan)
• Aid around green farming
practices
• Industrial farming companies
compelled to reduce carbon
intensity of operations
• Consumer companies receiving
bailout packages forced to
reduce carbon intensity of
supply chains
• Investing in natural
infrastructure, peatlands, wood
restoration
• R&D into sustainable agriculture
• Technical assistance for
greening supply chains, rural
upskilling (in developing
countries) and use of fertilisers
• Tighten environmental
protections as part of
• Expand subsidies to protect
natural environment – including
within agriculture
Source: Desktop research, BCG analysis, press search
Liquidity for consumers Bailouts with green "strings"
Response Recovery
Overarching green policy
Green infrastructure, RD&D and
industry stimulus
31. 30
Major players
have
reaffirmed
sustainability
commitments
and NZ
ambition "We must move beyond business-as-usual and work together to
deliver the greatest impact for people, prosperity and the planet …
A systemic shift to a zero-carbon and resilient economy is within
our reach - our only future depends on making this vision a
reality."
-Science Based Targets initiative letter, 155 signatories
"Let’s work together to create a more sustainable and resilient
world. We will play our part and are committed to net-zero
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050."
-Mark Schneider, Nestlé CEO
Source: Press search
"Historical Athens begins its recovery phase from the epidemic
with an array of green initiatives aiming to fully take advantage of
the lessons learnt from the health crisis; that includes - not
exhaustively - increasing its recycling network, enhancing its urban
nature and, on the whole, treating this challenge as nothing more -
and nothing less - than a unique opportunity. An opportunity to
help our cities and our citizens grow, prosper and enter a new era
of environmental awareness and involvement. This should not be a
time for us to simply react but to reflect and to blossom."
-Kosta Bakoyannis, Mayor of Athens
32. 31
List of policies assessed for climate and economic impact
E
B
P
F
J
A
I C
H G
Q
R
N
W
U
V
Y T
KO D
M
L
X
S
Number of experts
rating policy in Top 10
157 experts
34 experts
Speed
Fast
Slow
Alphabetic labels
reference policy IDS
High
Long-Run
multiplerLow
High
Negative
impact
High
Positive
impact
Potentialclimate
Impact
A Temporary waiver of interest payments
B Assisted bankruptey (Supper Chapter 11)
C Liquidity support for large corporation
D Liquidity support for households, start-ups and SME’s
E Airline bailouts
F Not for profits, education, research, health inst. bailouts
G Reduction in VAT and other goods and services taxes
H Income tax cuts
I Business tax deferrals
J Business tax relief for strategic and structural adj.
K Direct provision of basic needs
L Education investment
M Healthcare investment
N Worker retaining
O Targeted direct cash transfers or temporary wage increase
P Rural support policies
Q Traditional transport infrastructure investment
R Project-based local infrastructure grants
S Connectivity infrastructure investment
T Clean energy infrastructure investement
U Buildings upgrades (energy efficiency)
V Green spaces and natural infrastructure investment
W Disaster preparedness, capacity building
X General R&D spending
Y Clean R&D spending
1. April 2020, Survey of 231 finance ministry/central bank officials/senior economists (representing 53 countries incl. all G20; perspective on COVID 19 fiscal recovery packages
(Hepburn et al, 2020) by Smiths School Oxford