This document analyzes the relationship between temperature, latitude, and the spread of COVID-19. It finds that significant community transmission has occurred primarily along the 30-50°N latitude corridor where temperatures have been consistently between 5-11°C and relative humidity between 47-79%. Using weather modeling, it predicts areas at increased risk for spread over the coming weeks, noting temperatures will rise in the Northern Hemisphere reducing risk. However, it cautions that predictions are speculative given multiple unconsidered factors and calls for further research integrating epidemiological and earth systems modeling.
This document summarizes research on the relationship between air pollution, climate factors like temperature and humidity, and the spread of viruses. It reviews literature showing links between increased air pollutants like PM2.5 and PM10 and higher risk of influenza-like illness. Studies found COVID-19 transmission was highest at certain temperatures and reduced slightly with higher minimum temperatures. Experiments demonstrated influenza virus transmission was enhanced at cold, dry conditions. The document hypothesizes that air pollution levels in highly industrialized areas like Wuhan, China could have implications for new virus emergence and transmission.
"conventional emergency “humanitarian aid” has failed to
improve health on even a medium-term basis in the last
four decades. Common sense indicates that populations
benefit more from improvements in wealth, water supply,
and agriculture than from consuming free goods from
international aid."
Ruan2020 likelihood of survival of coronavirus disease 2019Nilda Vllacres
This document discusses estimates of the case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19. The CFR is an important indicator of disease severity and public health impact. Early estimates of the CFR for COVID-19 have varied from 1.4-3.8% depending on datasets and time periods. A recent study estimated an overall CFR of 1.38% in China, increasing with age. Comparisons show COVID-19's CFR is much higher than seasonal flu across all age groups, highlighting it is more severe. Early detection and treatment can help control outbreaks and lower the CFR.
This document summarizes a book on the epidemiology and diffusion of viruses with a focus on the role of latitude, air pollutants, and humidity. It discusses several viruses including SARS, MERS, influenza, and COVID-19. It reviews literature finding associations between increased air pollutants like PM2.5 and higher risk of influenza-like illness. Some studies found temperature could impact COVID-19 transmission, with an optimal temperature range. Experiments with influenza in guinea pigs found that cold, dry conditions favor airborne transmission. The role of atmospheric conditions in the seasonality and spread of influenza over large geographic areas is discussed.
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 - a model-based analysisGuy Boulianne
This study used individual-level case data and aggregate case/death counts from China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other countries to estimate key severity metrics for COVID-19, accounting for biases. The researchers estimated that the mean duration from symptom onset to death is 17.8 days, and to hospital discharge is 24.7 days. They estimated the case fatality ratio in China to be 1.38% overall but higher in older age groups, and the infection fatality ratio in China to be 0.66% with increasing risk with age. They also estimated the proportion of infections likely to require hospitalization increases with age up to 18.4% for those aged 80+.
This study found significant seasonal variation in sepsis hospitalization rates in Victoria, Australia over a 10-year period. Rates of sepsis admissions were highest in winter and lowest in summer, with an 18.1% increase from summer to winter. Explanations for this pattern include increased viral infections like influenza in winter and the effect of photoperiodicity on immune function. Understanding seasonal trends in sepsis can help optimize healthcare resource allocation.
1) The document discusses the link between air pollution and the spread and severity of COVID-19. It analyzes literature showing that air pollutants like particulate matter can act as carriers for viral particles and other toxins, worsening the inflammatory response in lungs.
2) Areas with high air pollution were hit harder by the first wave of COVID-19 and the emergence of variants may be related to factors in polluted air acting as mutagens.
3) Reducing global air pollution is needed to curb the effects of COVID-19. The rapid spread of the virus, especially variants, suggests it can be airborne, with implications for prevention measures and international responsibility in addressing pollution.
Sars cov 2 spike mutations paper los alamosJauru Freitas
This summarizes a document describing a pipeline for tracking mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in real-time. It identifies 14 mutations accumulating in spike, including the D614G mutation which began spreading in Europe in February and has become dominant in many countries. The pipeline downloads sequence data daily, analyzes alignments to identify frequently recurring mutations, and uses structural modeling to evaluate mutations' effects. Experiments then characterize mutations of interest regarding infectivity, antigenicity, and other impacts. The rapid global spread provides opportunities for natural selection, so ongoing monitoring is important to inform vaccine design as mutations could limit vaccine effectiveness over time.
This document summarizes research on the relationship between air pollution, climate factors like temperature and humidity, and the spread of viruses. It reviews literature showing links between increased air pollutants like PM2.5 and PM10 and higher risk of influenza-like illness. Studies found COVID-19 transmission was highest at certain temperatures and reduced slightly with higher minimum temperatures. Experiments demonstrated influenza virus transmission was enhanced at cold, dry conditions. The document hypothesizes that air pollution levels in highly industrialized areas like Wuhan, China could have implications for new virus emergence and transmission.
"conventional emergency “humanitarian aid” has failed to
improve health on even a medium-term basis in the last
four decades. Common sense indicates that populations
benefit more from improvements in wealth, water supply,
and agriculture than from consuming free goods from
international aid."
Ruan2020 likelihood of survival of coronavirus disease 2019Nilda Vllacres
This document discusses estimates of the case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19. The CFR is an important indicator of disease severity and public health impact. Early estimates of the CFR for COVID-19 have varied from 1.4-3.8% depending on datasets and time periods. A recent study estimated an overall CFR of 1.38% in China, increasing with age. Comparisons show COVID-19's CFR is much higher than seasonal flu across all age groups, highlighting it is more severe. Early detection and treatment can help control outbreaks and lower the CFR.
This document summarizes a book on the epidemiology and diffusion of viruses with a focus on the role of latitude, air pollutants, and humidity. It discusses several viruses including SARS, MERS, influenza, and COVID-19. It reviews literature finding associations between increased air pollutants like PM2.5 and higher risk of influenza-like illness. Some studies found temperature could impact COVID-19 transmission, with an optimal temperature range. Experiments with influenza in guinea pigs found that cold, dry conditions favor airborne transmission. The role of atmospheric conditions in the seasonality and spread of influenza over large geographic areas is discussed.
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 - a model-based analysisGuy Boulianne
This study used individual-level case data and aggregate case/death counts from China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other countries to estimate key severity metrics for COVID-19, accounting for biases. The researchers estimated that the mean duration from symptom onset to death is 17.8 days, and to hospital discharge is 24.7 days. They estimated the case fatality ratio in China to be 1.38% overall but higher in older age groups, and the infection fatality ratio in China to be 0.66% with increasing risk with age. They also estimated the proportion of infections likely to require hospitalization increases with age up to 18.4% for those aged 80+.
This study found significant seasonal variation in sepsis hospitalization rates in Victoria, Australia over a 10-year period. Rates of sepsis admissions were highest in winter and lowest in summer, with an 18.1% increase from summer to winter. Explanations for this pattern include increased viral infections like influenza in winter and the effect of photoperiodicity on immune function. Understanding seasonal trends in sepsis can help optimize healthcare resource allocation.
1) The document discusses the link between air pollution and the spread and severity of COVID-19. It analyzes literature showing that air pollutants like particulate matter can act as carriers for viral particles and other toxins, worsening the inflammatory response in lungs.
2) Areas with high air pollution were hit harder by the first wave of COVID-19 and the emergence of variants may be related to factors in polluted air acting as mutagens.
3) Reducing global air pollution is needed to curb the effects of COVID-19. The rapid spread of the virus, especially variants, suggests it can be airborne, with implications for prevention measures and international responsibility in addressing pollution.
Sars cov 2 spike mutations paper los alamosJauru Freitas
This summarizes a document describing a pipeline for tracking mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in real-time. It identifies 14 mutations accumulating in spike, including the D614G mutation which began spreading in Europe in February and has become dominant in many countries. The pipeline downloads sequence data daily, analyzes alignments to identify frequently recurring mutations, and uses structural modeling to evaluate mutations' effects. Experiments then characterize mutations of interest regarding infectivity, antigenicity, and other impacts. The rapid global spread provides opportunities for natural selection, so ongoing monitoring is important to inform vaccine design as mutations could limit vaccine effectiveness over time.
This document summarizes research on the psychological impact of the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. It finds that patients, healthcare workers, older adults, and migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to increased anxiety, depression, and stress during the outbreak. It also notes gaps in mental health services during emergencies and a lack of training for healthcare workers in providing psychological support. The document concludes that mass quarantines are likely to substantially increase anxiety for multiple reasons.
This document summarizes research on the immunological and toxicological implications of COVID-19, focusing on the innate immune response and immune evasion. It discusses how the virus can trigger a "cytokine storm" through overactivation of the innate immune system and proinflammatory cytokines like IL-6. This storm can lead to widespread inflammation and multi-organ failure. The document also explores potential therapeutic strategies aimed at modulating the cytokine response, such as using corticosteroids or chloroquine to reduce IL-6 levels and calm the storm. Understanding the immune dysregulation and identifying key signaling pathways may help develop new clinical management approaches and prevent progression to severe illness.
This study analyzes epidemiological data from Tibet, Bolivia, and Ecuador to test the hypothesis that high-altitude populations above 2500 meters are less susceptible to severe effects of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. The data suggest lower prevalence and impact of COVID-19 in these regions compared to lowlands. Potential reasons are that high-altitude environments may compromise virus half-life through factors like UV radiation. Additionally, chronic hypoxia downregulates ACE2 expression in the lungs, the receptor SARS-CoV-2 uses for cell entry, potentially protecting high-altitude inhabitants.
1) The researchers analyzed the stability of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in aerosols and on various surfaces, finding it remained viable in aerosols for 3 hours with a reduction and on plastic and stainless steel for up to 3 days with reduced viability over time.
2) SARS-CoV-2 stability was similar to SARS-CoV-1 on all surfaces and in aerosols tested, with half-lives of around 1 hour in aerosols and 5-6 hours on plastic and stainless steel.
3) These findings indicate that differences in epidemiological characteristics between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 likely stem from other factors like viral loads and
The Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on the Facilitated Emergence of...Dave Porter
This document discusses how climate change may facilitate the spread of malaria and leishmaniasis to new areas. It summarizes research showing temperatures fluctuating around 21°C can increase malaria transmission. Models predict malaria risk increasing in Germany as transmission seasons lengthen. Other models show leishmaniasis vectors and reservoirs potentially expanding northward in North America by 2080. However, climate change models have shortcomings, as temperature alone does not always correlate with malaria outbreaks, and other factors like human migration influence disease spread. More research is still needed to fully understand these relationships.
This document discusses the relationship between COVID-19 and diabetes based on clinical observations from China, Italy, and the United States. Emerging evidence shows that diabetes is a common comorbidity in patients with severe COVID-19 and may increase the risk of mortality. The document then reviews the pathogenesis and immune response to SARS-CoV-2 before discussing potential mechanisms by which diabetes could increase susceptibility to infection and severe disease. It concludes by highlighting areas for further investigation and management considerations for clinicians.
The Global Symposium on Soil Pollution #GSOP18 | 2 - 4 May 2018 | FAO Hq
Mr. Frank Swartjes, RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands
Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Explorato...Konstantinos Demertzis
This document presents a novel method for modeling and forecasting the temporal spread of COVID-19 in Greece based on complex network analysis. The method develops a spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by community detection in the network representing the time series. The model provides a reliable framework for forecasting that can help inform decision making and management of health resources for fighting COVID-19 in Greece. The analysis finds that Greece's infection curve experienced 5 stages of declining dynamics and showed signs of saturation after 33 days, suggesting Greece's response has been effective at keeping cases and deaths relatively low.
This document analyzes mortality associated with influenza in the state of São Paulo, Brazil from 2002 to 2011. It finds that the pre-pandemic years showed a seasonal pattern of increased mortality during the winter linked to increased activity of influenza A(H3N2) viruses, especially in those over 60. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was associated with higher than average mortality in those aged 5-19 and 20-59. Mortality in those over 60 was lower during the pandemic than previous influenza seasons. The pandemic wave occurred from July to November 2009. Overall mortality during the pandemic was higher than average but similar to severe H3N2 seasons.
This document summarizes a research article that examines the relationship between certain viruses and environmental factors like latitude, air pollution, and humidity. It presents figures and maps showing the spread of SARS, MERS, influenza, and COVID-19. It also shows maps of global and regional air pollution. The authors hypothesize that increased air pollution may facilitate the spread of viruses and note reduced COVID-19 spread and air pollution in China following restrictions. Several studies finding links between respiratory illness and air pollution, and mixed effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission, are discussed. The authors theorize that natural selection can occur in polluted atmospheric environments.
Alarming turn of Dengue Fever in Dhaka in 2019Dr.Arifa Akram
The number of dengue cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh has more than doubled in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, with 16,223 cases reported in July alone. Serotype DENV-3 has become predominant, replacing DENV-2, and co-infection with DENV-2 and DENV-3 has been detected. Most deaths have occurred in people experiencing a second dengue infection. Experts attribute the increase to factors such as climate change, intermittent rain, and lack of cleanliness. Urgent public health measures are needed, including vector control programs and awareness campaigns, to curb the alarming rise in dengue cases.
paper 2 seroprevalencia en individuos sin sintomas.pdfssuser5aa5ba
This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 among individuals in Daegu, South Korea who had never been diagnosed with COVID-19. The study tested 198 patients and guardians for COVID-19 antibodies. It found an estimated seroprevalence of 7.6%, with 15 positive cases. Most positive cases did not experience COVID-19 symptoms. Based on this rate, the estimated number of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases in Daegu was about 12 times the number of confirmed cases. Seroprevalence was higher among smokers and diabetics. This suggests the number of undiagnosed cases was substantial even with South Korea's aggressive testing and contact tracing strategy.
This paper critically assesses the use of confirmed case and fatality counts to study COVID-19 pandemic dynamics using Italy as a case study. It finds that considering only confirmed case counts can be misleading, as testing efforts have increased over time. The fraction of positive tests fluctuates until mid-March and then decreases linearly as testing increases. Modeling the pandemic using only raw case counts, without adjusting for testing, could provide inaccurate representations of the virus's dynamics. Regional reporting also lacks detail on within-country spread. The paper analyzes Italian regional data and presents a package for standardizing COVID-19 data from different sources to facilitate analysis.
- A study examined the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 567 people in London with recent loss of smell and/or taste.
- 77.6% of participants were found to have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, suggesting recent smell/taste loss is highly associated with COVID-19 infection.
- Loss of smell in particular was found to be strongly linked to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with 93.4% of those with antibodies reporting smell loss compared to 78.7% without antibodies.
Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masksValentina Corona
1) The study identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses, and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness.
2) Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols. There was also a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets.
3) The results indicate that surgical face masks could help prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.
1) The letter discusses the possibility that the Covid-19 virus originated from zoonotic spillover in Southeast Asia rather than Wuhan, China based on cases detected in pangolins in that region.
2) Surveillance of coronaviruses in pangolins is needed to address the possibility of novel coronavirus spillover from animals to humans in Southeast Asia.
3) The authors respond that genomic sequencing, observational studies, and modeling are needed to distinguish repeated zoonotic spillover events from human-to-human transmission.
The Dynamic Of The Main Foliar Wheat Diseases Developing At Coast Zone Of Alb...irjes
Observations were done every week starting from filleting till milk ripening in wheat production
fields. It was carried out in "Kaloshi" farm in Grabian village, Lushnja the district of Fier for the three study
years (2011, 2012, 2013). Winter wheat is one of the most important and economically beneficial crops in
Albania. Distribution of pathogens is a complex phenomenon – it is set by host distribution and susceptibility
levels, crop management and environment. Based on the data received during observations about the most
frequent foliar wheat diseases at coast zone Lushnje, for the three study years can be say that: Based on the data
obtained during surveys conducted to determine the most frequent air diseases of wheat in the low coastal area
Lushnja, for the three study years (2011, 2012, 2013) we can say that: for the three study years the first
infection of Powdery mildew (B.graminis) are seen at the first observation, march 15, with a level by 3%, while
during the mid of Aprile was 12%. During the begining of Aprile are seen infection by Septoria leaf blotch
(Septoria sp). With a value by 3% and afetr at the end of May this value was 41 %. Brown rust (P.recondita) on
the leaves is seen on mid of Aprile with a infection level by 1%, while at the end of may it was 38 %. Changes
in disease epidemics were determined and showed the differences between the analyzed diseases.
Name : Renathan Agustianus
NIM : 20190900012
Major : Industrial Engineering
Faculty : Science and Technology
Courses : Bahasa Inggris 2
Lecturer : Harisa Mardiana
FInal Exam
The document discusses COVID-19 and the potential role of environmental factors in its transmission. It provides details about COVID-19, including that it is caused by SARS-CoV-2 and causes respiratory illness. It then discusses how the virus's behavior and susceptibility can vary in different environments. Factors like relative humidity, material of contaminated surfaces, and air temperature may influence how long the virus survives. The spread of the virus through fecal contamination of water is also a possible transmission route. Researchers are working to understand environmental factors that could affect COVID-19 transmission to help control outbreaks.
The editorial discusses the Covid-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. It summarizes a study describing the first 425 cases in Wuhan, China, noting the median age was 59 and higher mortality in the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. While the current fatality rate is around 2%, it may ultimately be closer to seasonal flu if asymptomatic cases are accounted for. The virus has an estimated reproduction number of 2.2, indicating rapid spread. Countries have implemented travel restrictions and should prepare for broader community spread, potentially using social distancing and isolation measures. Research efforts are underway to develop treatments and a vaccine.
This document summarizes research on the psychological impact of the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. It finds that patients, healthcare workers, older adults, and migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to increased anxiety, depression, and stress during the outbreak. It also notes gaps in mental health services during emergencies and a lack of training for healthcare workers in providing psychological support. The document concludes that mass quarantines are likely to substantially increase anxiety for multiple reasons.
This document summarizes research on the immunological and toxicological implications of COVID-19, focusing on the innate immune response and immune evasion. It discusses how the virus can trigger a "cytokine storm" through overactivation of the innate immune system and proinflammatory cytokines like IL-6. This storm can lead to widespread inflammation and multi-organ failure. The document also explores potential therapeutic strategies aimed at modulating the cytokine response, such as using corticosteroids or chloroquine to reduce IL-6 levels and calm the storm. Understanding the immune dysregulation and identifying key signaling pathways may help develop new clinical management approaches and prevent progression to severe illness.
This study analyzes epidemiological data from Tibet, Bolivia, and Ecuador to test the hypothesis that high-altitude populations above 2500 meters are less susceptible to severe effects of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. The data suggest lower prevalence and impact of COVID-19 in these regions compared to lowlands. Potential reasons are that high-altitude environments may compromise virus half-life through factors like UV radiation. Additionally, chronic hypoxia downregulates ACE2 expression in the lungs, the receptor SARS-CoV-2 uses for cell entry, potentially protecting high-altitude inhabitants.
1) The researchers analyzed the stability of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in aerosols and on various surfaces, finding it remained viable in aerosols for 3 hours with a reduction and on plastic and stainless steel for up to 3 days with reduced viability over time.
2) SARS-CoV-2 stability was similar to SARS-CoV-1 on all surfaces and in aerosols tested, with half-lives of around 1 hour in aerosols and 5-6 hours on plastic and stainless steel.
3) These findings indicate that differences in epidemiological characteristics between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 likely stem from other factors like viral loads and
The Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on the Facilitated Emergence of...Dave Porter
This document discusses how climate change may facilitate the spread of malaria and leishmaniasis to new areas. It summarizes research showing temperatures fluctuating around 21°C can increase malaria transmission. Models predict malaria risk increasing in Germany as transmission seasons lengthen. Other models show leishmaniasis vectors and reservoirs potentially expanding northward in North America by 2080. However, climate change models have shortcomings, as temperature alone does not always correlate with malaria outbreaks, and other factors like human migration influence disease spread. More research is still needed to fully understand these relationships.
This document discusses the relationship between COVID-19 and diabetes based on clinical observations from China, Italy, and the United States. Emerging evidence shows that diabetes is a common comorbidity in patients with severe COVID-19 and may increase the risk of mortality. The document then reviews the pathogenesis and immune response to SARS-CoV-2 before discussing potential mechanisms by which diabetes could increase susceptibility to infection and severe disease. It concludes by highlighting areas for further investigation and management considerations for clinicians.
The Global Symposium on Soil Pollution #GSOP18 | 2 - 4 May 2018 | FAO Hq
Mr. Frank Swartjes, RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands
Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Explorato...Konstantinos Demertzis
This document presents a novel method for modeling and forecasting the temporal spread of COVID-19 in Greece based on complex network analysis. The method develops a spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by community detection in the network representing the time series. The model provides a reliable framework for forecasting that can help inform decision making and management of health resources for fighting COVID-19 in Greece. The analysis finds that Greece's infection curve experienced 5 stages of declining dynamics and showed signs of saturation after 33 days, suggesting Greece's response has been effective at keeping cases and deaths relatively low.
This document analyzes mortality associated with influenza in the state of São Paulo, Brazil from 2002 to 2011. It finds that the pre-pandemic years showed a seasonal pattern of increased mortality during the winter linked to increased activity of influenza A(H3N2) viruses, especially in those over 60. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was associated with higher than average mortality in those aged 5-19 and 20-59. Mortality in those over 60 was lower during the pandemic than previous influenza seasons. The pandemic wave occurred from July to November 2009. Overall mortality during the pandemic was higher than average but similar to severe H3N2 seasons.
This document summarizes a research article that examines the relationship between certain viruses and environmental factors like latitude, air pollution, and humidity. It presents figures and maps showing the spread of SARS, MERS, influenza, and COVID-19. It also shows maps of global and regional air pollution. The authors hypothesize that increased air pollution may facilitate the spread of viruses and note reduced COVID-19 spread and air pollution in China following restrictions. Several studies finding links between respiratory illness and air pollution, and mixed effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission, are discussed. The authors theorize that natural selection can occur in polluted atmospheric environments.
Alarming turn of Dengue Fever in Dhaka in 2019Dr.Arifa Akram
The number of dengue cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh has more than doubled in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, with 16,223 cases reported in July alone. Serotype DENV-3 has become predominant, replacing DENV-2, and co-infection with DENV-2 and DENV-3 has been detected. Most deaths have occurred in people experiencing a second dengue infection. Experts attribute the increase to factors such as climate change, intermittent rain, and lack of cleanliness. Urgent public health measures are needed, including vector control programs and awareness campaigns, to curb the alarming rise in dengue cases.
paper 2 seroprevalencia en individuos sin sintomas.pdfssuser5aa5ba
This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 among individuals in Daegu, South Korea who had never been diagnosed with COVID-19. The study tested 198 patients and guardians for COVID-19 antibodies. It found an estimated seroprevalence of 7.6%, with 15 positive cases. Most positive cases did not experience COVID-19 symptoms. Based on this rate, the estimated number of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases in Daegu was about 12 times the number of confirmed cases. Seroprevalence was higher among smokers and diabetics. This suggests the number of undiagnosed cases was substantial even with South Korea's aggressive testing and contact tracing strategy.
This paper critically assesses the use of confirmed case and fatality counts to study COVID-19 pandemic dynamics using Italy as a case study. It finds that considering only confirmed case counts can be misleading, as testing efforts have increased over time. The fraction of positive tests fluctuates until mid-March and then decreases linearly as testing increases. Modeling the pandemic using only raw case counts, without adjusting for testing, could provide inaccurate representations of the virus's dynamics. Regional reporting also lacks detail on within-country spread. The paper analyzes Italian regional data and presents a package for standardizing COVID-19 data from different sources to facilitate analysis.
- A study examined the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 567 people in London with recent loss of smell and/or taste.
- 77.6% of participants were found to have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, suggesting recent smell/taste loss is highly associated with COVID-19 infection.
- Loss of smell in particular was found to be strongly linked to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with 93.4% of those with antibodies reporting smell loss compared to 78.7% without antibodies.
Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masksValentina Corona
1) The study identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses, and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness.
2) Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols. There was also a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets.
3) The results indicate that surgical face masks could help prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.
1) The letter discusses the possibility that the Covid-19 virus originated from zoonotic spillover in Southeast Asia rather than Wuhan, China based on cases detected in pangolins in that region.
2) Surveillance of coronaviruses in pangolins is needed to address the possibility of novel coronavirus spillover from animals to humans in Southeast Asia.
3) The authors respond that genomic sequencing, observational studies, and modeling are needed to distinguish repeated zoonotic spillover events from human-to-human transmission.
The Dynamic Of The Main Foliar Wheat Diseases Developing At Coast Zone Of Alb...irjes
Observations were done every week starting from filleting till milk ripening in wheat production
fields. It was carried out in "Kaloshi" farm in Grabian village, Lushnja the district of Fier for the three study
years (2011, 2012, 2013). Winter wheat is one of the most important and economically beneficial crops in
Albania. Distribution of pathogens is a complex phenomenon – it is set by host distribution and susceptibility
levels, crop management and environment. Based on the data received during observations about the most
frequent foliar wheat diseases at coast zone Lushnje, for the three study years can be say that: Based on the data
obtained during surveys conducted to determine the most frequent air diseases of wheat in the low coastal area
Lushnja, for the three study years (2011, 2012, 2013) we can say that: for the three study years the first
infection of Powdery mildew (B.graminis) are seen at the first observation, march 15, with a level by 3%, while
during the mid of Aprile was 12%. During the begining of Aprile are seen infection by Septoria leaf blotch
(Septoria sp). With a value by 3% and afetr at the end of May this value was 41 %. Brown rust (P.recondita) on
the leaves is seen on mid of Aprile with a infection level by 1%, while at the end of may it was 38 %. Changes
in disease epidemics were determined and showed the differences between the analyzed diseases.
Name : Renathan Agustianus
NIM : 20190900012
Major : Industrial Engineering
Faculty : Science and Technology
Courses : Bahasa Inggris 2
Lecturer : Harisa Mardiana
FInal Exam
The document discusses COVID-19 and the potential role of environmental factors in its transmission. It provides details about COVID-19, including that it is caused by SARS-CoV-2 and causes respiratory illness. It then discusses how the virus's behavior and susceptibility can vary in different environments. Factors like relative humidity, material of contaminated surfaces, and air temperature may influence how long the virus survives. The spread of the virus through fecal contamination of water is also a possible transmission route. Researchers are working to understand environmental factors that could affect COVID-19 transmission to help control outbreaks.
The editorial discusses the Covid-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. It summarizes a study describing the first 425 cases in Wuhan, China, noting the median age was 59 and higher mortality in the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. While the current fatality rate is around 2%, it may ultimately be closer to seasonal flu if asymptomatic cases are accounted for. The virus has an estimated reproduction number of 2.2, indicating rapid spread. Countries have implemented travel restrictions and should prepare for broader community spread, potentially using social distancing and isolation measures. Research efforts are underway to develop treatments and a vaccine.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and t...pateldrona
1) The document presents a mathematical model for predicting the spread of COVID-19. The model uses differential equations to model both the rising and falling phases of infections in countries.
2) The model's predictions for Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg are in good agreement with real data since the beginning of COVID-19, unlike a logistic model.
3) The descending curves predicted by the model provide information on when a country may return to normal life, based on the duration of the epidemic within that country.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and t...navasreni
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of
last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a
differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and t...komalicarol
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of
last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a
differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including
the SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental data for Italy, Belgium
and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of the logistic model.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and t...AnonIshanvi
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of
last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a
differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including
the SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental data for Italy, Belgium
and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of the logistic model. We find that our
predictions are in good agreement with the real world since the beginning of the appearance of the
COVID-19; this is not the case for the logistic model that only applies to the first days. The second part
of the work is devoted to modelling the desc
Dynamics of the COVID-19 Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and t...SarkarRenon
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of
last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a
differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including
the SARS-CoV-2).
COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), previously known as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a strain of coronavirus. The first cases were seen in Wuhan, China in December 2019 before spreading globally. The current outbreak was recognized as a pandemic on 11 March 2020.
The non-specific imaging findings are most commonly of atypical or organizing pneumonia, often with a bilateral, peripheral, and basal predominant distribution. No effective treatment or vaccine exists currently (March 2020).
The document discusses COVID-19, describing what it is, how it spreads, and who is most at risk. It then discusses factors in the environment that can affect the transmission of COVID-19, such as relative humidity, air temperature, and fecal contamination of water. Finally, it provides results of studies on how temperature, humidity, and wind speed can influence the spread and viability of the COVID-19 virus.
COVID 19 is a contagious disease caused by a betacoronavirus, which began in Wuhan, China in late 2019. Until now, this new illness has affected more than 6 million people worldwide, and has claimed more than 300 000 human lives. Governments around the globe were faced with the coronavirus pandemic crisis and designed strategies to slow or halt viral transmission. Measures undertaken included enforcing countrywide lockdowns, banning mass gatherings, closing schools and businesses and halting international travel.
The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic:
Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARSCoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention
strategies
Human Coronaviruses (HCoV) exhibit positive single stranded RNA genome with enveloped nucleocapsid. Coronavirus belongs to the family Coronaviridae, originated from avian and mammalian species causes upper respiratory tract infection in humans by novel HCoVs viruses named as HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63 but predominant species is Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) across the world. HCoV-HKU1 sp. is associated with chronic pulmonary disease, while HCoV-NL63 causes upper and lower respiratory tract disease in both children and adults, but most recent one was MERS-CoV, which caused acute pneumonia and occasional renal failure. The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a new strain that causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as named by the World Health Organization. According to the recent world statistics report about the COVID-19 cases approx. 101,500 confirmed cases and 3,500 death cases appeared. And mostly, a case of infection with CoV was identified in Wuhan, China. Structurally viral genome constitutes of 2/3rd of replicase gene encoding ORFs regions and rest of the 1/3rd region of genome form the structural proteins. The aim of the study was to understand the viral genetic systems in order to facilitate the genetic manipulation of the viral genome and to know the fundamental mechanism during the viral replication, facilitating the development of antidotes against the virus.
This document discusses the relationship between climate change and the spread of Lyme disease. It begins with an introduction about how a colleague contracted Lyme disease from a tick bite. The rest of the document is divided into three sections:
1) Biological background on Lyme disease, how it is transmitted by deer ticks, and its current prevalence.
2) A study that found using climate models that deer tick habitat is expected to expand 213% by 2080 due to warming temperatures and increased humidity from climate change.
3) Limitations of the climate model which only considered temperature and humidity and not biological factors like the distributions of deer and mice hosts that also impact tick ranges. More accurate risk projections will require models considering both
Sanjay Mehta, MD
Associate Professor of Medicine
Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health
Department of Medicine
University of California, San Diego
Forecasting the peak and fading out of novel coronavirus of 2019Islam Saeed
The document summarizes a statistical model that was developed to forecast the size, peak, and fading out of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak using confirmed case and death data. The model predicts that:
1) The outbreak will peak on February 20, 2020 with over 91,000 confirmed cases and 1,655 deaths worldwide.
2) The number of cases and deaths will then decline through the end of March 2020 as the outbreak fades out.
3) The outbreak will likely be completely died out by the first week of April 2020, according to the model.
- The document discusses the Covid-19 pandemic, providing an overview of the virus and its spread worldwide. It notes that Covid-19 has infected over 3.7 million people globally, causing over 259,000 deaths.
- Symptoms of Covid-19 range from mild to severe and can include fever, cough, shortness of breath. Around 14% of cases progress to pneumonia and 5% are critical. The elderly and those with preexisting conditions are at higher risk.
- Covid-19 is diagnosed through PCR tests of nasal and throat swabs. Antibody tests can also detect if a person has been infected. The case fatality rate of Covid-19 is around 2.
Similar to Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19 (20)
Immersive Learning That Works: Research Grounding and Paths ForwardLeonel Morgado
We will metaverse into the essence of immersive learning, into its three dimensions and conceptual models. This approach encompasses elements from teaching methodologies to social involvement, through organizational concerns and technologies. Challenging the perception of learning as knowledge transfer, we introduce a 'Uses, Practices & Strategies' model operationalized by the 'Immersive Learning Brain' and ‘Immersion Cube’ frameworks. This approach offers a comprehensive guide through the intricacies of immersive educational experiences and spotlighting research frontiers, along the immersion dimensions of system, narrative, and agency. Our discourse extends to stakeholders beyond the academic sphere, addressing the interests of technologists, instructional designers, and policymakers. We span various contexts, from formal education to organizational transformation to the new horizon of an AI-pervasive society. This keynote aims to unite the iLRN community in a collaborative journey towards a future where immersive learning research and practice coalesce, paving the way for innovative educational research and practice landscapes.
The debris of the ‘last major merger’ is dynamically youngSérgio Sacani
The Milky Way’s (MW) inner stellar halo contains an [Fe/H]-rich component with highly eccentric orbits, often referred to as the
‘last major merger.’ Hypotheses for the origin of this component include Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE), where the progenitor
collided with the MW proto-disc 8–11 Gyr ago, and the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), where the progenitor collided with the
MW disc within the last 3 Gyr. These two scenarios make different predictions about observable structure in local phase space,
because the morphology of debris depends on how long it has had to phase mix. The recently identified phase-space folds in Gaia
DR3 have positive caustic velocities, making them fundamentally different than the phase-mixed chevrons found in simulations
at late times. Roughly 20 per cent of the stars in the prograde local stellar halo are associated with the observed caustics. Based
on a simple phase-mixing model, the observed number of caustics are consistent with a merger that occurred 1–2 Gyr ago.
We also compare the observed phase-space distribution to FIRE-2 Latte simulations of GSE-like mergers, using a quantitative
measurement of phase mixing (2D causticality). The observed local phase-space distribution best matches the simulated data
1–2 Gyr after collision, and certainly not later than 3 Gyr. This is further evidence that the progenitor of the ‘last major merger’
did not collide with the MW proto-disc at early times, as is thought for the GSE, but instead collided with the MW disc within
the last few Gyr, consistent with the body of work surrounding the VRM.
EWOCS-I: The catalog of X-ray sources in Westerlund 1 from the Extended Weste...Sérgio Sacani
Context. With a mass exceeding several 104 M⊙ and a rich and dense population of massive stars, supermassive young star clusters
represent the most massive star-forming environment that is dominated by the feedback from massive stars and gravitational interactions
among stars.
Aims. In this paper we present the Extended Westerlund 1 and 2 Open Clusters Survey (EWOCS) project, which aims to investigate
the influence of the starburst environment on the formation of stars and planets, and on the evolution of both low and high mass stars.
The primary targets of this project are Westerlund 1 and 2, the closest supermassive star clusters to the Sun.
Methods. The project is based primarily on recent observations conducted with the Chandra and JWST observatories. Specifically,
the Chandra survey of Westerlund 1 consists of 36 new ACIS-I observations, nearly co-pointed, for a total exposure time of 1 Msec.
Additionally, we included 8 archival Chandra/ACIS-S observations. This paper presents the resulting catalog of X-ray sources within
and around Westerlund 1. Sources were detected by combining various existing methods, and photon extraction and source validation
were carried out using the ACIS-Extract software.
Results. The EWOCS X-ray catalog comprises 5963 validated sources out of the 9420 initially provided to ACIS-Extract, reaching a
photon flux threshold of approximately 2 × 10−8 photons cm−2
s
−1
. The X-ray sources exhibit a highly concentrated spatial distribution,
with 1075 sources located within the central 1 arcmin. We have successfully detected X-ray emissions from 126 out of the 166 known
massive stars of the cluster, and we have collected over 71 000 photons from the magnetar CXO J164710.20-455217.
The technology uses reclaimed CO₂ as the dyeing medium in a closed loop process. When pressurized, CO₂ becomes supercritical (SC-CO₂). In this state CO₂ has a very high solvent power, allowing the dye to dissolve easily.
Current Ms word generated power point presentation covers major details about the micronuclei test. It's significance and assays to conduct it. It is used to detect the micronuclei formation inside the cells of nearly every multicellular organism. It's formation takes place during chromosomal sepration at metaphase.
ESA/ACT Science Coffee: Diego Blas - Gravitational wave detection with orbita...Advanced-Concepts-Team
Presentation in the Science Coffee of the Advanced Concepts Team of the European Space Agency on the 07.06.2024.
Speaker: Diego Blas (IFAE/ICREA)
Title: Gravitational wave detection with orbital motion of Moon and artificial
Abstract:
In this talk I will describe some recent ideas to find gravitational waves from supermassive black holes or of primordial origin by studying their secular effect on the orbital motion of the Moon or satellites that are laser ranged.
Describing and Interpreting an Immersive Learning Case with the Immersion Cub...Leonel Morgado
Current descriptions of immersive learning cases are often difficult or impossible to compare. This is due to a myriad of different options on what details to include, which aspects are relevant, and on the descriptive approaches employed. Also, these aspects often combine very specific details with more general guidelines or indicate intents and rationales without clarifying their implementation. In this paper we provide a method to describe immersive learning cases that is structured to enable comparisons, yet flexible enough to allow researchers and practitioners to decide which aspects to include. This method leverages a taxonomy that classifies educational aspects at three levels (uses, practices, and strategies) and then utilizes two frameworks, the Immersive Learning Brain and the Immersion Cube, to enable a structured description and interpretation of immersive learning cases. The method is then demonstrated on a published immersive learning case on training for wind turbine maintenance using virtual reality. Applying the method results in a structured artifact, the Immersive Learning Case Sheet, that tags the case with its proximal uses, practices, and strategies, and refines the free text case description to ensure that matching details are included. This contribution is thus a case description method in support of future comparative research of immersive learning cases. We then discuss how the resulting description and interpretation can be leveraged to change immersion learning cases, by enriching them (considering low-effort changes or additions) or innovating (exploring more challenging avenues of transformation). The method holds significant promise to support better-grounded research in immersive learning.
The cost of acquiring information by natural selectionCarl Bergstrom
This is a short talk that I gave at the Banff International Research Station workshop on Modeling and Theory in Population Biology. The idea is to try to understand how the burden of natural selection relates to the amount of information that selection puts into the genome.
It's based on the first part of this research paper:
The cost of information acquisition by natural selection
Ryan Seamus McGee, Olivia Kosterlitz, Artem Kaznatcheev, Benjamin Kerr, Carl T. Bergstrom
bioRxiv 2022.07.02.498577; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.02.498577
Sexuality - Issues, Attitude and Behaviour - Applied Social Psychology - Psyc...PsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defectsSérgio Sacani
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defects
Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19
1. Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19
Mohammad M. Sajadi, MD,1,2
Parham Habibzadeh, MD,3
Augustin Vintzileos, PhD,4
Shervin
Shokouhi, MD,5
Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, PhD,6-7
Anthony Amoroso, MD1,2
1
Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA
2
Global Virus Network (GVN), Baltimore, USA
3
Persian BayanGene Research and Training Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
4
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, USA
5
Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research, Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical
Sciences, Tehran, Iran
6
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, USA
7
The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, USA
Corresponding author:
Mohammad Sajadi, MD
Associate Professor
Institute of Human Virology
Global Virus Network (GVN) Center of Excellence
University of Maryland School of Medicine
725 W. Lombard St. (N548)
Baltimore, MD 21201
Office (410) 706-1779
Fax (410) 706-1992
msajadi@ihv.umaryland.edu
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
2. Abstract
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including
human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease
2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities
and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at
consistently similar weather patterns (5-11O
C and 47-79% humidity). There has been a lack of
significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity
and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows
a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict
the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the
upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
3. Figure 1. World temperature map November 2018-March 2019. Color gradient indicates
1000hPa temperatures in degrees Celsius. Black circles represent countries with significant
community transmission (> 6 deaths as of 3/5/3019). Image from Climate Reanalyzer
(https://ClimateReanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA.
Many infectious diseases show a seasonal pattern in their incidence. An onerous burden for health care
systems around the globe, influenza is the characteristic example.1
The influenza virus shows
significant seasonal fluctuation in temperate regions of the world but nevertheless displays less
seasonality in tropical areas.2-4
Despite the multitude of possible mechanisms proposed to explain this
variation, our current understanding of this phenomenon is still superficial.5
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, initially came to attention in a
series of patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology in the Hubei province of China, and
subsequently spread to many other regions in the world through global travel.6
Because of
geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter
predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in
the epidemic.7
However, the establishment of community transmission has occurred in a consistent
east and west pattern. The new epicenters of virus were all roughly along the 30-50o
N” zone; to South
Korea, Japan, Iran, and Northern Italy (Figure 1).8
After the unexpected emergence of a large outbreak
in Iran, we first made this map in late February. Since then new areas with significant community
transmission include the Northwestern United States and France (Figure 1). Notably, during the same
time, COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China. The number of
patients and reported deaths in Southeast Asia is much less when compared to more temperate regions
noted above.8
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
4. Further analysis using 2-meter (2m) temperatures from 2020 rather than hPa temperatures yields
similar results (Figure 2). In the months of January 2020 in Wuhan and February 2020 in the other
affected, there is a striking similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11o
C) and relative
humidity (RH, 47-79%) (Table 1). In addition to have similar average temperature, humidity, and
latitude profiles, these locations also exhibit a commonality in that the timing of the outbreak
coincides with a nadir in the yearly temperature cycle, and thus with relatively stable temperatures
over a more than a one month period of time (Supplementary Figure 1). In addition, none of the
affected cities have minimum temperatures going below 0 o
C (Supplementary Figure 1).
Figure 2. World temperature map January 2020-February 2020. Color gradient indicates 2-
meter temperatures in degrees Celsius based on data from the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis.
White circles represent countries with significant community transmission (> 6 deaths as of
3/5/3019).
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
5. The association between temperature in the cities affected with COVID-19 deserves special attention.
There is a similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11o
C) and RH (47-79%) in the affected
cities and known laboratory conditions that are conducive to coronavirus survival (4o
C and 20-80%
RH).9
Temperature and humidity are also known factors in SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and influenza
survival.10
Furthermore, new outbreaks occurred during periods of prolonged time at these
temperatures, perhaps pointing to increased risk of outbreaks with prolonged conditions in this range.
Finally, the temperatures in these cities did not dip below 0o
C, pointing to a potential minimum range,
which could be due to avoidance of freeze-thaw cycles that could affect virus viability or other factors
(at least one human coronaviruses tested is freeze-thaw resistant).11
All of these point to a potential
direct relation between temperature and SARS-CoV-2 environmental survival and spreading. This
hypothesis can be tested in experimental conditions similar to work that has been done before,9
and
with environmental sampling and testing from areas of ongoing infection.
Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can
tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks. Using
2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect
areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West)
Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the
Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. However, this simplified analysis
does not take into account the effect of warming temperatures. The marked drop in cases in Wuhan
could well be linked to corresponding recent rising temperatures there (Table 1).
In the coming 2 months, temperatures will rise dramatically across many areas in the Northern
Hemisphere. However, areas to the north which develop temperature profiles that may now overlap
the current areas at risk only transiently as they rapidly warm (with possible exception of areas such as
City Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020
Cities with community spreading of COVID-19
Wuhan 18o
C/44% 12 o
C/56% 7 o
C/74% 13 o
C/66%
Tokyo 17 o
C/53% 11 o
C/52% 9 o
C/54% 10 o
C/47%
Qom 12 o
C/52% 10 o
C/58% 7 o
C/59% 10 o
C/47%
Milan 11 o
C/77% 8 o
C/74% 7 o
C/69% 11 o
C/58%
Daegu 11 o
C/64% 5 o
C/62% 4 o
C/68% 5 o
C/62%
Seattle 9 o
C/76% 6 o
C/84% 6 o
C/84% 7 o
C/79%
Mulhouse 7 o
C/84% 6 o
C/82% 6 o
C/80% 8 o
C/74%
Glasgow 5o
C/87% 5 o
C/89% 6o
C/86% 4 o
C/84%
Large cities tentatively predicted to be at risk in the coming weeks
London 8 o
C/78% 8 o
C/80% 8 o
C/80% 8 o
C/70%
Manchester 7 o
C/82% 6 o
C/83% 7 o
C/83% 6 o
C/73%
Berlin 8 o
C/81% 5 o
C/80% 5 o
C/81% 6 o
C/75%
Prague 7 o
C/81% 4 o
C/78% 3 o
C/79% 6 o
C/71%
Hamburg 6 o
C/89% 5 o
C/86% 6 o
C/88% 6 o
C/83%
Vancouver 8 o
C/75% 6 o
C/84% 5 o
C/84% 5 o
C/78%
New York 8 o
C/55% 4 o
C/72% 4 o
C/61% 5 o
C/62%
Warsaw 8 o
C/76% 4 o
C/78% 3 o
C/78% 5 o
C/72%
Glasgow 5o
C/87% 5 o
C/89% 6o
C/86% 4 o
C/84%
Kiev 6 o
C/74% 4 o
C/83% 1 o
C/85% 3 o
C/76%
St. Louis 6 o
C/71% 5 o
C/78% 3 o
C/77% 3 o
C/73%
Beijing 9o
C/33% 2 o
C/43% 2 o
C/41% 5 o
C/45%
Previously predicted city where COVID-19 failed to take hold
Bangkok 31 o
C/52% 30 o
C/45% 32 o
C/50% 32 o
C/51%
Table 1. November 2019 to February 2020 average temperature (o
C) and humidity (%)
data from cities with community spreading of COVID-19 and those at potentially at risk.
Temperature and humidity data obtained from www.worldweatheronline.com
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
6. the Northwest United States and British Columbia, which can show prolonged cyclical nadirs)
(Supplementary Figure 1). Furthermore, as the virus moves further north it will encounter sequentially
less human population densities. The above factors, climate variables not considered or analyzed
(cloud cover, maximum temperature, etc.), human factors not considered or analyzed (impact of
epidemiologic interventions, concentrated outbreaks like cruise ships, travel, etc.), viral factors not
considered or analyzed (mutation rate, pathogenesis, etc.), mean that although the current correlations
with latitude and temperature seem strong, a direct causation has not been proven and predictions in
the near term are speculative and have to be considered with extreme caution.
Human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-OC43), which usually
lead to common cold symptoms, have been shown to display strong winter seasonality between
December and April, and are undetectable in summer months in temperate regions.12
Although it would
be even more difficult to make a long-term prediction at this stage, it is tempting to expect COVID-19
to diminish considerably in affected areas (above the 30o
N”) in the coming months. It could perhaps
prevail at low levels in tropical regions similar to influenza and begin to rise again in late fall and
winter in temperate regions in the upcoming year. One other possibility is that it will not be able to
sustain itself in the summer in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and disappear. Surveillance efforts
Figure 3. World 1000hPa temperature map March 2019-April 2019. Color gradient indicates
1000hPa temperatures in degrees Celsius. Tentative areas at risk in the near-term include those
following the light green bands. Image from Climate Reanalyzer
(https://ClimateReanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
7. in the tropics, as well as New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, and Chile between the
months of June through September may be of value in determining establishment in the human
population.
Along these lines, an avenue for further research involves the use of integrated or coupled
epidemiological-earth-human systems models, which can incorporate climate and weather processes and
variables (e.g., dynamics of temperature, humidity) and their spatiotemporal changes, as well as simulate
scenarios of human interactions (e.g., travel, transmission due to population density). Such models can
assimilate data currently being collected to accelerate the improvements of model predictions on short
time scales (i.e., daily to seasonal). This type of predictive approach would allow to explore questions
such as what are population centers most at risk and for how long; where to intensify large scale
surveillance and tighten control measures to prevent spreading; better understanding of limiting factors
for virus spreading in the southern hemisphere; and making predictions for a 2021-2022 virus season.
A better understanding of the cause of seasonality for coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses would
undoubtedly aid in better treatments and/or prevention, and be useful in determining which areas need
heightened surveillance.
Conflict of interest: None to declare.
M.M.S supported by NIH grant 1R01AI147870-01A1.
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Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308
9. Supplementary Figure 1. Three and ten year temperature data (through February 2020) from seven cities
currently affected and five at potential risk of epidemic spread. In the months that cities had outbreaks of
COVID-19, minimum and average temperature was > 0o
C, and outbreaks occurred during prolonged
temperature nadirs that typically lasted > 1 month. Temperature graphs for five cities potentially at risk also
provided (Beijing, Prague, Glasgow, Manchester, and Vancouver,).
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550308