TCI2012 Rebuilding competitiveness after a major natural disaster
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Gerard Quinn on rebuilding competitiveness after a major natural disaster, presented at the 15th TCI Global Conference, Basque Country 2012.
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TCI2012 Rebuilding competitiveness after a major natural disaster
- 2. As The Dust Settles Rebuilding competitiveness after a major natural disaster Gerard Quinn, TCI Conference, San Sebastian, October 2012
- 3. Contents 1. Christchurch as it was 2. The Events 3. The impact 4. The Rebuild – conditions, issues and actions 5. Future Christchurch 3
- 6. An attractive and vibrant city 6
- 7. Supported by and supporting a rural hinterland 7
- 8. Two of the major events 8 • Mag 7.1 • 40 km west of Christchurch • Depth 10 km • 40 seconds • PGA 1.26g • 0 fatalities, 2 serious injuries, 100 injuries • Insurance Claims $3Bn • Mag 6.3 • 10 km southeast of Christchurch • Depth 5 km • 12seconds • PGA 2.2g • 185 fatalities, many injuries • Repair cost $30Bn
- 9. Feb
- 11. 11
- 12. 12
- 13. 13
- 17. Why was this disaster unusual ?
- 18. 18
- 19. The entire heart and central business district (CBD) of Christchurch was decimated, with 1 800 commercial buildings being demolished. 19
- 20. Red Zone Cordon 20 23 Feb 2011 04 Oct 2012
- 21. Issues – Insurance • 80% economic losses covered, but …. – The Cordon - Definition of “untenantable” – for asset replacement and B.I. – Insurance won’t progress claims until geotechnical stability and rebuild decisions are made – Work in progress insurance for builders and developers – Local government infrastructure reinsurance – Increased premiums and excesses 21
- 22. Activity Hot and Cold spots 22 Affected 7000 businesses, 60 000 employees
- 23. 500 000t of liquefaction 23
- 24. Residential land zones – “uneconomic to rebuild” 24
- 25. Rebuild Issue - Land Stability Category Red Land is uneconomic to repair – no dwellings allowed White Further work required to categorise Green / Grey Future land damage from liquefaction is unlikely. You can use standard foundations for concrete slabs or timber floors Green / Yellow Minor to moderate land damage from liquefaction is possible in future significant earthquakes. You can use standard timber piled foundations for houses with lightweight cladding and roofing and suspended timber floors Or enhanced concrete foundations – i.e. more robust floor slabs that better tie the structure together Green / Blue Moderate to significant land damage from liquefaction is possible in future significant earthquakes. Site-specific geotechnical investigation and specific engineering foundation design is required. 25 These categories describe how the land is expected to perform in future earthquakes
- 26. Impact on people • Psychological impact – Affects managers, staff, customers – Loss of confidence and identity – Uncertainty, lack of control • Health impact – Anxiety, respiratory, PND, stress-related • Economic impact – Loss of employment in some sectors – Loss of homes in red zone – Risk of flight of capital and talent • Community spirit increased 26
- 27. Population - Migration of registered individual taxpayers into Canterbury 27 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Arrivals Departures Net Migration Population decline 2.5%, to be more than replaced by rebuild workforce
- 28. Why reinvest in Christchurch • Greater Christchurch provides • 12 %of NZ’s GDP • 70 % of the economic output in Canterbury • 250 000 jobs • 400 000 residents • South Island hub • the main entry point for tourists coming to the South Island • Major import/export infrastructure • Canterbury still has economic strengths and vibrant communities 28
- 29. Why rebuild the city CBD ? • The centre of a city contains a higher density of people and businesses – more connected, can share ideas and communicate more easily, and provide easier access to the labour market – lower transaction costs and access to common services – doubling in employment density = 2-4% increase in productivity • Without a central city, greater Christchurch is losing up to $395 million a year in productivity. • A vibrant centre helps attract people and finance • A city needs a heart, a memorable identity 29
- 30. The opportunity • The new CBD will address issues such as : – Too much land in fragmented titles – Variable building quality – Inefficient spatial planning – Infrastructure to support key business sectors – Opportunity for a smart, sustainable, eco-friendly heart – Move beyond lifestyle to attract talent in a competitive global talent market 30
- 31. Favourable factors for a rebuild 31 EQC covers damage caused by earthquakes, landslips, volcanic eruptions, hydrothermal activity and tsunami. The total cost to insurers of rebuilding has been estimated at NZ$30 billion,making it by far New Zealand's costliest natural disaster, and the third-costliest earthquake worldwide. EQC Reserves $11Bn.
- 32. Evidence-based Economic Development strategy was in development Important relationships already existed
- 33. Local organisations – first responders 33 Canterbury Business Recovery Trust Custodian of the long-term economic development strategy Immediate business Survival Received and allocated private sector and public donations to businesses • Post rebuild growth path • Water • Long term • Redistribution of economic hotspots • Long term outcomes not constraints • Access to premises and information, relocation • Loss of customers • Forced suspension of trading due damage and DEE • Loss of key staff • Assessment • Equity
- 34. Recover Canterbury WHAT – Single point of contact. – Christchurch Earthquake Support Package $260M • Employer subsidy • Employee grant – Recovery planning , Referrals, Mentoring, Training, Funding WHO – CDC, CECC, 6 Govt Ministries, sharing information and resources !!! HOW – Surveyed businesses – Call centre – www.recovercanterbury.co.nz – Business Recovery Coordinators 34
- 36. Putting the City on Your Side • Cluster Managers know businesses and sectors and are trusted by them • Nature of businesses affects their recovery – compare the mobility of professional services firms = dislocation, vs engineering with 50t machines = relocation. – Business choices to relocate are off-shore – Fighting for Council information and decisions, quick consents, development contribution waivers 36
- 37. Re:START
- 38. Central city Plans – aspirational, inspirational, citizen-driven 38 Kia Kaha (Be Strong)
- 39. Recovery Strategy required Focused Organisations • CERA • Scale of disaster and need for public money requires integrated and timely decision making across a range of organisations • Own Minister with special powers – e.g. land acquisition • SCIRT • Horizontal infrastructure ($2.2Bn) • CCDU • The central city rebuild 39
- 40. Recovery Strategy Factors Objectives Leadership • Recovery • Integration • Partnership People • Workforce Dynamics • Quality of Life • Renewing regional brand Business Environment • Capital availability (confidence) • Business friendly • Worst affected sector support (tourism, hospitality, education) • Encouraging and investing in innovation • Leveraged infrastructure investment40
- 41. Local Industry Participation Project • Primary actions – Get local and NZ companies into supply chain – Change Government procurement policies to include Value for Money (overall economic impact) and Whole of life (not just cheapest purchase price) principles – Collaborate Canterbury to encourage JVs to achieve scale – Work with clusters in other regions to mitigate impact and maximise economic advantage • Secondary consequences – Local sector capability profile and capability increased – Inbound procurement visits from Australia (ICN) – Export sales to Australian transport industry 41
- 42. Demand for labour – scenario planning 42 •Scenario driven •Not just at Trades level •An additional 23,871 construction workers will be required with a peak demand for labour being somewhere around quarter 4 2013.
- 43. Scenario 3 – Reduced BAU and slower pace, 10,000 additional workers 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 2019Q2 2019Q4 2020Q2 2020Q4 BAU with Reduction Infrastructure Residential New Builds Residential Repair Commercial 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 2019Q2 2019Q4 2020Q2 2020Q4 BAU with Reduction Infrastructure Residential New Builds Residential Repair Commercial Scenario 1 – No BAU Adjustment 30,000 additional workers required
- 44. Building Resilience 44 Resilience Survive in a Crisis Thrive in an uncertain world Resilient firms have to exist in a resilient community or else staff and customers leave
- 45. Building Resilience – www.resorgs.org.nz 45 Resilience = Self-reliance + Interdependence Leadership & Culture Networks Change Ready Not static - Can be eroded and rebuilt
- 46. Embrace Innovative thinking – smaller scale • Openness and collaboration between firms increased. – HP , IBM donated IT equipment to SMEs • Late shopping in CBD Re:Start to combat malls • Cloud computing • A cardboard cathedral ? • A combined cathedral ? • Vibration reduced piling system 46
- 47. Innovative thinking – large scale, longer term • UC Futures – Student Employability Hub – Student Innovation Centre • Innovation precinct – 40+ ICT companies collaborative campus • City and environmental redesign to reduce crime • Schools rationalisation 47
- 48. Case study Tourism 48 8% 6% 3% 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 0% -4% -3%-5% -1% 1% -5% -2% 0% 2% -2% 6% 34% 16% 6% 3% -2% -8% -10% -4% -3% 3% -5% 9% 5% 1% 4% -6% -1% -1% -8% -8% -15% -2% -9% -7% -24% -46% -42% -38% -38% -39% -30% -32% -28% -34% -29% -32% -43%-42% -40% -42%-43% -45%-50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 International Guest Nights All NZ vs Canterbury International Guest Nights… Note: this data compares growth • Tourism sector in Canterbury is worth $2.3 billion pa • South Island tourism is dependent on Christchurch working • Major “physical” problems with Christchurch visitor infrastructure especially accommodation
- 49. Stage 1 – Survive 2012 - 2016 Existing business retention Planning for “New” Christchurch Development and implementation of transition plan High priority project rebuild commences Stage 2 – Recover 2017 - 2025 Major rebuild construction (75%) completed Marketing of “New” Christchurch Communicate milestones achieved Stage3 – Grow 2026 - 2032 Complete remaining rebuild projects Market Christchurch as Australasia’s best visitor destination Tourism phases of recovery Gateway to South Island
- 50. High Priority Projects – Phase 1 & 2 1. Accommodation re-instatement and new builds 2. New convention centre 3. Ensuring “transitional city” works for visitors 4. Air Services : Re-instatement of Tasman capacity and development of new long-haul direct routes 5. Creation of new visitor attractions 6. Developing a new metro sports facility & improved marketing of sports events
- 51. Enrolment of international fee paying students 51 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Rest of New Zealand (LHS) Canterbury (RHS)
- 52. Intl Education – recovery strategy 52 STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IMPACTINTERVENTIONS Expanding capacity and capability Aligning and Engaging Retaining student value Promoting the Value Proposition Raise capacity Utilise Alumni Develop products Market Development Market Penetration Efficient Sector Support Articulate to study or work Change relnship with Study CHC Leverage IERNZ and CCC relationships Nett Income Number of students Increase value add segment numbersMaximise return per student Return per Student Investment in Infra. Soft Infra. & Sector Sector Contbn Boost Safe Student Programme Tertiary Expos Industry Internship programme Encourage stays Korea, India market campaigns Destination Mktg campaign Contestable mktg Fund Inbound agent programme Develop offshore delivery products Attract new providers Alumni Kit& Events Alumni database Support Student Village project Motivate secondary segment providers
- 53. Politics of the rebuild • Business Leaders’ Group want influence on G and LG actions – Significant investors in people and assets – Committee for Christchurch – Publicly opposed CCC actions and decisions • Central Government calling the shots and expecting local Government to foot much of the cost – sell CCC assets ? • Competing rebuild sectors – issues of economics vs equity – Housing (EQC, Insurers, PS) – Amenities (LG) – Infrastructure (G, LG) – Commercial (PS) • Suspension of elections for regional council • Changes to individual property and appeal rights 53
- 54. Indelendent 54 Finding : A set of forced marriages caused a degree of confusion, inefficiency and duplication of control Recommendation : clear authority and closer links with businesses and community organisations
- 56. A new heart 56
- 57. A new essence • Changed skyline • Innovation centres • A modern, safe, smart city which attracts global talent • Increased productivity • A new breed of leaders and entrepreneurs 57
- 58. LEARNINGS 1. Uncertainty is a major problem. Communication is key. 2. Have networks already established which provides resilience generally 3. Direction and pace is important. • There is a window of opportunity within which to set the direction of recovery and growth to retain people and capital. • Rebuilding as fast as you can may not be the optimum pace in economic terms. 4. The presence and effectiveness of development agencies and strong clusters is vital to coming out of the disaster better than when you went in. 5. Opportunities to increase competitiveness have come not from a single asset or an investment, but from the combinations of people, place, investment and attitude. • Bring in new people who aren't scarred, scared and tired. 58
- 59. Christchurch Palmerston North Napier Tauranga Auckland Dunedin Wellington Thanks to Fairfax Media
- 60. 60 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Hotels Motels Backpackers Holiday Parks Capacity of accommodation establishments in Christchurch City (stay unit nights)
- 61. Immediate Response • 2010 - Responsibility shared between Civil Defence and Christchurch City Council • 2011 Scale of event required reallocation of responsibilities 61
- 63. Everything takes on a different perspective 63
- 64. Estimate of real gross regional domestic product - levels ($ millions, seasonally adjusted in 1995/96 prices, measured quarterly) 64 $3,500 $3,550 $3,600 $3,650 $3,700 $3,750 $3,800 $3,850 $3,900 $3,950 $4,000 $30,000 $30,200 $30,400 $30,600 $30,800 $31,000 $31,200 $31,400 Rest of New Zealand (LHS) Canterbury (RHS)
- 65. International Education – Change of Marketing to “New” 65
- 66. Being real about it …… involve cluster members 66
Editor's Notes
- The recovery of greater Christchurch is the biggest challenge for New Zealand in living memory Uncharted territory for individuals, communities, businesses, councils and government This presso focuses on the role of a city in the competitiveness of a regional economy.
- Cannot tell this story in 15 minutes, but I will introduce many issues and actions , and you may remember some key points to ask questions about in the panel discussionYou will need to be attentive, as in telling the story, the issues and actions are not always linear and are often inter-related
- New Zealand is a country of 4.2 Million people, in the South pacific.CHC is located on the east coast of the South Island.
- Although I wasn’t born in Christchurch, it is the city that I have lived in the most and come to love as my home.New Zealand’s second largest city - Greater Christchurch has a population of just under 460,000 people. It is the gateway to the South Island and is its most significant centre of economic activity. It is representative of many medium-sized 'smart cities-regions around the world.Tallest buildings 28 stories
- The economy of CHC is built on 4 key sectors;Processing of and servicing agricultural outputsSpecialised ManufacturingTechnology = especially ICTServices – especially Education and International Education, Financial and professional Services, Health and TourismAssetsGreat schools, 2 Unis, a Poly and six CRIs, plus pvtreseach Trusts and pvt sector firms
- The topography of the hinterland leads naturally to agriculture and tourism.
- In 2010 and 2011 Christchurch and Canterbury were hit by two massive earthquakes - recording one of the greatest ever peak ground accelerations and becoming the third most expensive insured natural catastrophe in history.
- Many people injured by building facades made of URM, either fleeing buildings, on footpaths or parked
- The icon of the city, the CHC Angican Cathedral, lost its spire and will be demolished. The Cathp;ic Cathedral may be partially saved.
- Many international USAR teams came to help
- The people of CHC have been changed by this experience.
- What’s unusual ?Intensity of the 22 February event4 of the top 10 PGA recorded in history, only one bigger was 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.
- Prior to eq a lot of high productivity work occurred in the CBD.This is dust rising from the falling bricks
- CBD cordoned off, Businesses Unable to access premises, records and information.Imperative to reduce the cordon safely – cf 2009, the city of L'Aquila in Italy was struck by an earthquake that claimed 309 lives and caused severe damage to almost all buildings in the city's historical centre. Three years later, the inner city is still cordoned off and its citizens are feeling powerless in the face of long delays in decisions about how to rebuild the city and return evacuated residents to their homes. Buildings isolatedNo critical mass of business together Unexpected road closuresIn the early hours of April 6,
- Some 80% of the economic losses from the Christchurch quake were covered compared to just 17% for Japan, she said.For residential property New Zealand has a residential earthquake pool called the Earthquake Commission (EQC). This is in effect a government-backed insurance fund financed through a levy on insurance premiums. In the event of an earthquake (or indeed a landslide) EQC will pay up to NZ100,000 for property damage and NZ$20,000 for possessions, with the remainder of the costs being covered by the insurance companies, so long as the house owner had insurance. For commercial property, insurance will cover the costs. Infrastructure costs are more complex – in many cases the government will foot the bill from reserves, but it may be that some infrastructure is privately only, in which case the picture is more complex. Of course the effect of all of this is to drive a huge amount of spending into the economy, which ironically can act as an economic stimulus in the long term.
- Much Damage and even more dislocation.Many manufacturing businesses were located in east side of city. Have to relocate. Risk is that their choices are not only to elsewhere in ChC, but also AKL, Queensland and China. So we have to put the city on their side to keep them here.Workforces and schools have also had to redistribute, resulting in more commuting time and congestion.
- Significant liquefaction affected the eastern suburbs, producing around 500,000 tonnes of silt..
- These properties are located in:• the east of Christchurch (along the Avon and in related areas usuallyassociated with waterways or former waterways);There are currently about 5100 properties in the residential red zone.The criteria for defining areas as residential red zone are:• There is significant and extensive area wide land damage;• Most buildings are uneconomic to repair• There is a high risk of further damage to land and buildings from low levelsof shaking; and• The success of engineering solutions would be uncertain anduneconomic; and• Any repair would be disruptive and take a considerable period of time.Such wide scale land repair would take a considerable period oftime and result in ongoing social dislocation, which would have major impactson schooling, transport and employment for whole communities.Cheaper properties in east – how will they a ford to rebuild in more expensive subdivisions ?Green – repair/rebuild process can beginOrange – further assessment requiredRed – land repair would be prolonged and uneconomicWhite mapping still underway
- The price of TC3 properties has fallen relative to other categories – how do people afford to build their new houses ?
- For people who owned property with insurance in the residential red zones on3 September 2010 there will be two options:• the Crown makes an offer of purchase for the entire property at currentrating value (less any built property insurance payments alreadymade), and assumes all the insurance claims other than contents; or• the Crown makes an offer of purchase for the land only, andhomeowners can continue to deal with their own insurer about theirhomes.
- Why InvestRebuilding greater Christchurch is first and foremost the right thing to do. But there are also compelling economic reasons to invest in recovery.As a vibrant and strategic centre for the whole of the South Island, it’s important to recover from this disaster, adapt to ongoing seismic activity and enable a stronger and more resilient community and region.
- Prior to quakes the CBD was starting to decline – pockets of marginal businesses trading out of low grade buildings. Mini CBD s have sprung up, but infrastructure and amenities not presentProd incr = Abel, J (n.d.) Productivity and the Density of human capital
- EQC had its origins in Earthquake and War Damage Fund. Which was set up under legislation enacted in 1944In 1993, the Earthquake Commission Act replaced the Earthquake and War Damage Commission with the Earthquake Commission; and replaced the Earthquake and War Damage Fund with the Natural Disaster Fund.In 2001 it was decided by the Government that part of the Fund should be invested in international equities. The goal was to ensure there were tradeable financial assets outside New Zealand that wouldn’t be affected by a major natural disaster here: if the EQC needed to draw down on the Fund to meet significant claims, international equities could be sold first – keeping the requirement for cash away from the Government initially.Another advantage of investing part of the Fund in global equities was that the Fund could potentially grow faster than it might otherwise. A new performance benchmark was established: that the Fund would exceed the return on the NZ Government Bond Index, plus 1% per annum, measured on a rolling 10-year basis.Scorecard1 October 2012Claims459,281 total claims receivedBuilding claims414,333 receivedAssessments421,051 completedContents claims183,439 receivedLand claims98,219 receivedAmount paid$3,769,323,891 total paidHome repairs23,082 completedUrgent repairs46,571 completedHundreds of millions of dollars had been paid out on claims for smaller events – but despite this, under careful management, the Fund had accumulated to a value of $5.9 billion at the beginning of the 2010-11 financial year.The Earthquake Commission has been drawing down on the Fund to meet claims since the first Canterbury earthquake in September 2010.Read about the number of claims and funds paid out on the Scorecard page.In the process of meeting claims, the Fund’s global equities were entirely liquidated by May 2012. A portion of Government stock holdings was also sold. Since then, the Fund has been made up of only New Zealand Government stock and bank securities.During the first half of 2012, the EQC received its first payments from reinsurers. These payments are expected to continue until the reinsurers’ contractual obligations to EQC have been reached. At that time, the remaining earthquake claims will again be met by the Fund.If the Fund is fully exhausted, the Crown Guarantee will be activated – ie, the Government will meet further claims.ReinsuranceThe Earthquake Commission has a comprehensive catastrophe reinsurance programme in place, to help ensure we are able to pay out on claims.In a major disaster (a ‘reinsurance event’) the EQC is responsible for meeting a defined initial dollar value of total claims (the ‘deductable’). Reinsurers are responsible for further ‘layers’ of total claim costs, up to a contractual limit. With three reinsurance events having occurred in Canterbury, the program comes into effect three times in succession. The EQC Fund, the reinsurers, and finally the Crown Guarantee, all play their roles in meeting earthquake claims.RenegotiationThe Earthquake Commission’s reinsurance programme is renegotiated annually. The two most recent renegotiations took place in March 2011 and in March 2012, and the Commission’s premium increased significantly each time. In addition, changes were required to be made to the previous strategies of using three-year contracts – which helped smooth premiums year to year – in favour of more volatile one-year contracts. In 2013 the last of the three- year contracts will have run their course.Boosting the FundIn October 2011 the Minister of Finance, Hon Bill English, announced that EQC levies would rise in February 2012. Homeowners had been paying 5 cents per $100 of insurance cover. The levy increased to 15 cents per $100 of insurance cover, up to a maximum of $207 (including GST) per annum. This includes contents cover.Looking aheadCurrent projections are that Canterbury claims will eventually exhaust the Natural Disaster Fund. If this occurs, the Crown Guarantee will meet ongoing claims.The Earthquake Commission and the Government have started working on a full review of all aspects of the Fund.In the event of another major natural disaster in New Zealand in the near future, the Crown Guarantee would meet the required ‘deductible’ and reinsurance would contribute to the remainder, subject to contractual limits.EQCover insures you against loss or damage from:an earthquakea natural landslipa volcanic eruptionhydrothermal activitya tsunami.EQCover costs 15 cents (+ GST) for every $100 of home or contents fire insurance that you have. You pay this amount to your private insurance company.The most you can pay, per year, for one home and its contents is $180 (+ GST). This would give you the maximum cover of $100,000 (+ GST) for your home, $20,000 (+ GST) for contents, and cover for your insured residential land. This amount of insurance is available for each event of natural disaster damage.For residential property New Zealand has a residential earthquake pool called the Earthquake Commission (EQC). This is in effect a government-backed insurance fund financed through a levy on insurance premiums. In the event of an earthquake (or indeed a landslide) EQC will pay up to NZ100,000 for property damage and NZ$20,000 for possessions, with the remainder of the costs being covered by the insurance companies, so long as the house owner had insurance. For commercial property, insurance will cover the costs. Infrastructure costs are more complex – in many cases the government will foot the bill from reserves, but it may be that some infrastructure is privately only, in which case the picture is more complex. Of course the effect of all of this is to drive a huge amount of spending into the economy, which ironically can act as an economic stimulus in the long term.
- Miyamoto Intl (global structureal engineering compnay) CEO : “Small businesses are critical fro a region’s recovery”CBRT $ 10M from 30 largest companies plus Govt matched plus private
- • Recovery planning – assessing available help, drawing up a business plan.• Referrals to other agencies who can offer specialised assistance –for example, IR or NZTE, lawyers, banks or insurers.• Mentoring – providing objective and impartial assistance tohelp clarify business plans.• Training – providing advice and information on how to build theskills to achieve success.• Funding – providing information about and facilitating access toAvailable supportWhilst Govt funded , Business recovery programmes should be business-led. ~ Business recovery must build on fundamental and lasting strengths in the local economy.
- HopeEncourage [people to stayMaintain resilience
- Businesses could reopenCustomers felt safeCentral city identity maintainedRe:Start Mall allows citizens and visitors to experience that the heart of the city still beats. It is an important example of how business-led recovery is not simply a matter of economic urgency, buRestart, Container bars, central city retail 'cluster' built around ballantynest contributes to a community's wider sense of well-being.
- Numbr of plansBy CCC did the Have your say process, was about the feel of the city that people wanted. Low rise, safe, Stronger CHC was about what would nbe needed to make nbusienses want to return to the CBDEventually the CCDU Plan was about what the Govt is prepared to co-invest in and use its special legislative powers to achieve. This is the fundable plan, although it does put the pressure on the CCC to spend in certain ways.
- About CERAOverviewEstablished by Act of Parliament to co-ordinate and lead the recovery work after the September 2010 and February 2011 earthquakesThe Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) is the agency established by the Government to lead and coordinate the ongoing recovery effort following the devastating earthquakes of September 2010 and February 2011.Because the scale of the disaster means the overall recovery requires integrated and timely decision making across a range of organisations.CERA is supporting a range of organisations in making well co-ordinated and timely decisions. It aims to help restore the social, economic, cultural and environmental well-being of greater Christchurch communities.Our roleOur role includes:Providing leadership and coordination for the ongoing recovery effort.Focusing on business recovery, restoring local communities and making sure the right structures are in place for rebuilding.Enabling an effective and timely rebuilding.Working closely with Christchurch City Council, Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council and Environment Canterbury and engaging with local communities of greater Christchurch, including Ngāi Tahu, the private sector and the business sector.Keeping people and communities informed.How does CERA work?CERA reports to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery, Gerry Brownlee, who is responsible for coordinating the planning, spending, and actual rebuilding work needed for the recovery.Special powers have been vested in the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery and the new Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority in order to enable an effective, timely and co-ordinated rebuilding and recovery effort. The Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery and CERA will be working in a spirit of collaboration with the Christchurch City Council, Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council and Environment Canterbury and engage with the local communities of greater Christchurch, including Ngai Tahu, the private sector and business interests.In addition a forum of Canterbury cross-party parliamentary members will be set-up to share information on the recovery efforts.CERA will be funded by way of a new separate Vote.200 peopleWhat’s needed first? Why?What can wait? Why?What do you think the wider communities priorities are?Are there any road blocks now or coming?LegalRed tapeCost / fundingCapability, capacityPalatability / conservatismHow can they be overcome?SCIRT roadsfresh water systemswastewater systemsstorm water systems
- clusters in DUD, = Pre fabs, design and architecture, smart houses.
- The largest driver of labour needed for the rebuild is generated from the residential rebuild and repair sector. This is down to the high cost levels and short time frame to undertaken the work.The demand is not just at the trades levelGeotechnical EngineersCivil and Structural EngineersQuantity SurveyorsProject ManagersPlanning and Consenting OfficersBuilding InspectorsTrades WorkersPainters 6,000Plasterers 2,100Carpenters 4,700Concreters 1,000Electricians 900Plumbers 900Taking into account their damage assessments and scheduling of work it is expected that an additional 23,871 construction workers will be required with a peak demand for labour being somewhere around quarter 4 2013.The build-up of construction related activity will take more time than most commentators are projecting and the tail of activity past peak demand will create additional work for the next 20 years – this is not short term a boom and bust dynamic.
- Is there an optimum rate for a rebuild ? - Prices, inflation, demand, bust-boom based on construction
- It’s about coping with change.Everyhting in CHC is diffferenWhere children go to schoolWhere you do your shoppingWhat restaurants are open ?Where you work ?Incresed puncturesCongestion and dealys
- Leaders mobilise the leadership in othersOwner attitude affects staff enagementNetwrorks = Effective PartnershipsLeveraging KnowledgeBreaking SilosInternal ResourcesChange ready =Unity of PurposeProactive PosturePlanning StrategiesStress Testing Plan
- UC course rationalisations repalced by a provate, on campus provider
- UC rebuild $250MCombined degree design and delivery with LU and CPITImportant for the rebuild and future
- Cant dropped $200M (10%) touroist revenueRest of NZ was RWC2011
- Politics of a rebuild - driven off the economics, suspension of democratic processes, Land amalgamationSome land multiple owners, overseas ownersConfused communicationUnrealistic time frames (Dec 2012)Valuations – purchasing at damaged market value rather than potential value (some judicial appeal rights)Lack of dispute resolution processCBLG - need for vision and long term strategic plannning, based on comm for melbourneGerminate ideas, socialise ideas, facilitate and champion projects
- Stress on local Govt to respond to an event of his scale.Indepemdent review of CDEM response found
- What will the new Christchurch look like ?In ten years Christchurch will have an a new physical heart
- A doubling in employment density (i.e. the same number of employees in half the space) is expected to increase productivity by 2 – 4%. This means that by 2031 in CHC we could expect $75-$150M in increasedThere are a variety of positive indicators which illustrate the economic recovery of the region is well underway. Output, investment intentions, construction and many employment indicators are out-performing national trends. Meanwhile, more businesses arrived to the area than left in the last month and business registrations continued to outpace cessations. Robust activity in agriculture, international trade and many service industries has also continued.Of course, it is not all plain sailing. There are a few indicators which are not pointing in the right direction. Recent figures suggest that the accommodation and food services sector is failing to rebound, likely due to the reduction in accommodation capacity and visitor nights. In addition, the latest Performance of Manufacturing Index suggests a slight contraction in the last period and international trading activity at Christchurch Airport is not taking off in the same positive fashion as the Lyttelton Port. Finally, insurance availability and the progress of housing reconstruction remain areas of high priority for economic recovery in the region.On balance, however, the outlook is positive. One of the most significant indicators in this regard is the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employments index of jobs advertised online which shows that Canterbury figures are more than 50% greater than the rest of the New Zealand. This index is a strong lead indicator of economic growth. It paints a promising outlook. GDP (constant prices) annually. (Able, J. (n.d.) Productivity and the density of human capital.)
- These conclusions were reinforced by the OECD-Groningen study, which explicitly warns against approaches based on rebuilding the city as it was and only then looking for ways to move forward. Instead it offers a vision for L'Aquila's redevelopment as "a smart city" and the re-branding of the Abruzzo region as "a place of science, sustainability, heritage and beauty". It adds: "Implementing this new vision is fundamentally about shifting the emphasis from physical reconstruction to economic and social development; from the short and medium term to the medium and long term; from a rather fragmented to a socially integrated approach; and from a local and largely domestic view to a wider national and international perspective." Christchurch is fortunate in this regard. Before the earthquakes we had in place a Canterbury Regional Economic Development Strategy (CREDS) and a Christchurch Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) that identified our long-term strengths and opportunities. These strategies were based on widespread consultation; we do not have to reinvent that particular wheel in planning for our economic and social development.
- New Zealand is a country of 4.2 Million people, in the South pacific.
- World Profile - tourism, talent attraction, investment, risk to MNC offices
- The Government declared a national emergency, which stayed in force until 30 April 2011.CurfewWelfare Assistance CentresInitially, a curfew was established for parts of Christchurch Central City from 7:00 pm to 7:00 am in response to the earthquake. The New Zealand Army was deployed to the worst affected areas within Canterbury.[11]Civil defence, role of Council. Utilities emergency plans. Forming the Economic Response team had not been considered.
- What’s unusual ?The continued aftershock pattern creates uncertainty and delayOver 11000 above Mag 2Shows very active early days and a week or two following each large event.
- Signifies how life has cahnged for everybidy. Yhis is an ironic repreantation of the CHC Cathedral - made from cones and protective containersWherhou work, schools, commuting, Cones, high vis vests, containers to protect people form rock and building collapseNew terms like “deconstruction”“rejuvenate” for closing schools
- CHC had a strong economy prior to the eqs despite the global financial crisis, somewhat supported by commodity ag and energy prices.Overall an 8% reduction in GDP after considering global recession effects.Much BAU activity has been put on hold waiting for the rebuild to start.