Are current fiscal rules credible? What is the role of fiscal rules and of independent fiscal councils? Rene Smit's slides from the ADEMU 'How much of a fiscal union for the EMU' conference.
Policy panel: how much of a Fiscal Union? Joaquin AlmuniaADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a policy panel discussion on the level of fiscal union needed within the European Monetary Union (EMU). It notes that without some degree of fiscal union, the EMU will not be sustainable, but there are disagreements between France and Germany on the appropriate model. It calls for short-term actions like addressing Greek debt and longer-term discussions on establishing a fiscal capacity and mechanisms for risk-sharing within the Eurozone.
This document discusses the need for and potential forms of further fiscal union in the Eurozone. It makes the following key points:
1) While significant progress has been made in fiscal coordination and crisis management since 1997, the current framework is still not delivering and is not credible.
2) More fiscal union could take the form of strengthened rules and enforcement, more symmetry between deficit and surplus countries, a stabilization fund, and an expanded role for the ESM.
3) However, the perceived need for reform may not have changed significantly since 2016. While populism and Euroskepticism get attention, polls show stable or rising support for EU membership and the euro. Most citizens support further integration if reforms address unemployment
This document summarizes a model that examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area and how this contributed to the region's recent economic malaise. The model is able to reproduce key features of the euro area's weak growth, low inflation, and sovereign debt crisis when calibrated to reflect how policies are conducted. An alternative policy configuration involving coordination of monetary and fiscal policies through a centrally-operated fund issuing non-defaultable debt could have led to improved economic outcomes by making public debt crisis self-fulfilling events less likely and giving policymakers more room to respond to economic downturns in a stabilizing manner.
Fiscal Federalism in the EU?: Evolution and Future Choices for EMU (by Alicia...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses the challenges facing fiscal federalism in the EU and options for its future evolution. It outlines three main challenges: fiscal discipline, structural asymmetries between members, and dealing with asymmetric economic shocks. The EU's system has evolved from initial decentralization to address the sovereign debt crisis. Going forward, there are two models - the surveillance model which reinforces existing rules, and the fiscal federalism model which enhances EU fiscal capacity. However, both models pose threats to national sovereignty and democratic legitimacy. Effective reform will require balancing centralization with national autonomy in a manner that respects constitutional courts.
Sustainable economic and monetary union in Europe ADEMU_Project
Starting from a legal-institutional perspective, the lecture sketched out the major challenges for researchers and policymakers alike. It also looked at the areas of economic governance, monetary union and banking union with a view to the sustainability of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union.
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkADEMU_Project
This document introduces the ADEMU project, a Horizon 2020 research project that aims to study challenges facing the euro area's monetary and fiscal framework. The project is coordinated by Ramon Marimon and involves researchers from 8 top European universities. It will conduct policy-oriented basic research on important issues like fiscal-monetary interactions, risk sharing, financial stability, and how to strengthen the euro area. The research is organized into 4 work packages and advisory input is provided by an international committee of economists. The project aims to stimulate new insights and its final conference will assess the state of the euro area in 2018.
Policy panel: how much of a Fiscal Union? Joaquin AlmuniaADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a policy panel discussion on the level of fiscal union needed within the European Monetary Union (EMU). It notes that without some degree of fiscal union, the EMU will not be sustainable, but there are disagreements between France and Germany on the appropriate model. It calls for short-term actions like addressing Greek debt and longer-term discussions on establishing a fiscal capacity and mechanisms for risk-sharing within the Eurozone.
This document discusses the need for and potential forms of further fiscal union in the Eurozone. It makes the following key points:
1) While significant progress has been made in fiscal coordination and crisis management since 1997, the current framework is still not delivering and is not credible.
2) More fiscal union could take the form of strengthened rules and enforcement, more symmetry between deficit and surplus countries, a stabilization fund, and an expanded role for the ESM.
3) However, the perceived need for reform may not have changed significantly since 2016. While populism and Euroskepticism get attention, polls show stable or rising support for EU membership and the euro. Most citizens support further integration if reforms address unemployment
This document summarizes a model that examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area and how this contributed to the region's recent economic malaise. The model is able to reproduce key features of the euro area's weak growth, low inflation, and sovereign debt crisis when calibrated to reflect how policies are conducted. An alternative policy configuration involving coordination of monetary and fiscal policies through a centrally-operated fund issuing non-defaultable debt could have led to improved economic outcomes by making public debt crisis self-fulfilling events less likely and giving policymakers more room to respond to economic downturns in a stabilizing manner.
Fiscal Federalism in the EU?: Evolution and Future Choices for EMU (by Alicia...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses the challenges facing fiscal federalism in the EU and options for its future evolution. It outlines three main challenges: fiscal discipline, structural asymmetries between members, and dealing with asymmetric economic shocks. The EU's system has evolved from initial decentralization to address the sovereign debt crisis. Going forward, there are two models - the surveillance model which reinforces existing rules, and the fiscal federalism model which enhances EU fiscal capacity. However, both models pose threats to national sovereignty and democratic legitimacy. Effective reform will require balancing centralization with national autonomy in a manner that respects constitutional courts.
Sustainable economic and monetary union in Europe ADEMU_Project
Starting from a legal-institutional perspective, the lecture sketched out the major challenges for researchers and policymakers alike. It also looked at the areas of economic governance, monetary union and banking union with a view to the sustainability of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union.
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkADEMU_Project
This document introduces the ADEMU project, a Horizon 2020 research project that aims to study challenges facing the euro area's monetary and fiscal framework. The project is coordinated by Ramon Marimon and involves researchers from 8 top European universities. It will conduct policy-oriented basic research on important issues like fiscal-monetary interactions, risk sharing, financial stability, and how to strengthen the euro area. The research is organized into 4 work packages and advisory input is provided by an international committee of economists. The project aims to stimulate new insights and its final conference will assess the state of the euro area in 2018.
The Optimal Design of a Financial Stability FundADEMU_Project
This document discusses the design of an optimal Financial Stability Fund for the euro area. It begins by outlining the need for a risk sharing mechanism in the euro area based on reports from the European Council. It then presents two alternative mechanisms for borrowing and lending - incomplete markets with the possibility of default, and a Financial Stability Fund modeled as a long-term contract. The document uses quantitative analysis to compare these mechanisms and address questions about gains from risk sharing while preventing excessive transfers between very heterogeneous countries. It models the Fund as an economy where members trade state-contingent assets, with prices and borrowing limits determined endogenously to satisfy participation and incentive constraints.
Long-Term Sustainability of a Monetary and Fiscal UnionADEMU_Project
This document provides an overview of Jesús Fernández-Villaverde's presentation on the long-term sustainability of monetary and fiscal unions like the Eurozone. Some of the key ideas discussed are that monetary unions induce changes to member countries' political economies, both reinforcing and undermining sustainability. Understanding these changes is important to building a successful union. Evidence shows the euro reduced reform incentives in harder-hit periphery nations and increased them in Germany. Booms can obscure governance quality and change incentives and selection of politicians. There were two types of problems among troubled Eurozone nations: public debt issues for Greece and Portugal, and large real estate bubbles for Ireland and Spain.
How much of a fiscal union for the EMU? Has the answer to this, and related questions regarding the EMU fiscal and monetary framework, changed after 2016?
Carlos Mulas Granados: comments on Beetsma, Debrun and SloofADEMU_Project
Independent fiscal councils have proliferated in recent years to promote fiscal discipline. However, their effects are shaped by political conditions. Elections, political fragmentation, and ideology all influence fiscal outcomes. When political divisions are high, incumbents may choose not to create independent fiscal councils since they reduce congruence with voters' preferences. The document suggests empirical tests could provide evidence on when and how political factors determine the establishment and impact of independent fiscal councils.
Economic Policy Proposals and Law Judical Review as an exampleADEMU_Project
This document discusses judicial review of economic policy proposals and austerity measures in Europe. It examines how national constitutional courts and the European Court of Justice have reviewed austerity programs. While some national measures have been successfully challenged, the courts generally defer to governments. The document also analyzes legal challenges to actions of the European Central Bank, finding limited ability to seek review of the ECB. It raises questions about the appropriate division of authority between national and EU courts and optimal oversight of the ECB.
The EAFS and the policy mix - Marco ButiADEMU_Project
The recovery of the euro area has been particularly slow both by historical and international standards. Nine years after the economic and financial crisis struck, economic activity in the euro area is expanding at a moderate rate. However, the persistence of crisis legacies ─ such as the still-high unemployment rate and weak investment ─ suggest the recovery is not complete.
So far policy actions to support growth have excessively relied on monetary policy, resulting in an unbalanced policy mix. If monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth, is there a case for an expansionary fiscal stance at the aggregate euro area level? Can this be reconciled with the Stability and Growth Pact?
The presentation explores the concept of fiscal space and the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in surplus countries for the euro area’s internal and external adjustment. Finally, it discusses the build-up over the medium term of a fiscal stabilisation function at the central level.
Long-term Sustainability of a monetary and fiscal union. ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes Work Package 1 of the ADEMU research project, which aims to conduct analysis and develop proposals to ensure the long-term sustainability of the European Monetary and Fiscal Union. It discusses three components of the analysis: understanding sovereign debt crises, ensuring debt sustainability, and improving fiscal risk-sharing. It also summarizes several research papers that will contribute to each component and their key topics, such as minimizing future sovereign risks and designing a financial stability fund as a component of fiscal union.
Stabilisation policy in currency unions wp outlineADEMU_Project
This document discusses topics related to fiscal policy coordination in a currency union, including policy coordination approaches and challenges, fiscal multipliers theory and empirical evidence, and social insurance and labor market policies. Specific areas examined include tax competition between countries, the effect of different types of government spending on multipliers, the impact of unemployment insurance on labor market risk, and the role of social insurance policies at the union level in mitigating economic risks across members.
James Costain: fiscal delegation in a monetary unionADEMU_Project
The document analyzes mechanisms to restrain deficit bias in a monetary union, including fiscal delegation. It compares several policy games to analyze the macroeconomic and political-economic implications of delegating fiscal instruments in a monetary union. The paper models an economy with output varying based on surprise inflation and taxes. It then analyzes scenarios including a monetary union with decentralized fiscal policy (benchmark), and fiscal delegation systems that centralize some fiscal instruments. It aims to study the dynamic implications of fiscal delegation and whether large steady state gains justify short-run costs or impacts on business cycle stabilization.
This document discusses independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the EU and Spain. It outlines two systems of IFIs - the Anglo-Saxon model and European model. National IFIs aim to increase transparency, discipline, and sustainability of public finances. The AIReF was created in Spain in 2013 to oversee budget stability. It monitors Spain's fiscal targets and evaluates compliance. Recent reports call for strengthening IFI roles, including establishing an Advisory European Fiscal Board to complement existing national fiscal councils.
Debate on europe - How did Europe react to the economic and financial crisisAndrea Danni
How did Europe react to the economic and
financial crisis - Debate held at European College of Parma with the participation of Prof. Alfonso Mattera and Prof. Mario Monti
The document discusses arguments for fiscal centralization in the European Union based on lessons from other federal states. It argues that having decentralized fiscal policy alongside centralized monetary policy in the EU causes problems with adjustment to economic shocks and freeriding. The authors conclude that the EU should consider enforcing a no-bailout clause, allowing some independence for member states' revenue and spending, a system of fiscal transfers during crises, developing a euro bond market, and maintaining some flexibility.
A review of the European Union and the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the Eurozone countries. It discusses the way that the Eurozone managed the banking crisis in 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2011-12.
Presentation by Andris Vilks, Minister of Finance, Republic of Latvia at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
This document summarizes and critiques the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of the European Union. The SGP was created in 1997 to enforce fiscal discipline among EU member states and support the European Central Bank's monetary policy goals. However, the document discusses several economists who argue the SGP is flawed and fails to consider economic differences between members. It proposes an alternative pact focused on full employment and growth over the ECB's narrow price stability objective. The alternative would involve stronger EU institutions and fiscal policy coordination to better support the needs of the monetary union.
The document summarizes the European Commission's Green Paper on the Capital Markets Union. It discusses how the Capital Markets Union aims to diversify and stimulate Europe's financing environment by improving the efficiency and functioning of its capital markets. Currently, Europe relies too heavily on bank financing compared to countries like the US which have more developed capital markets. The Green Paper seeks input on a wide range of issues to develop Europe's capital markets and move the EU model closer to that of the US over time.
The Optimal Design of a Financial Stability FundADEMU_Project
This document discusses the design of an optimal Financial Stability Fund for the euro area. It begins by outlining the need for a risk sharing mechanism in the euro area based on reports from the European Council. It then presents two alternative mechanisms for borrowing and lending - incomplete markets with the possibility of default, and a Financial Stability Fund modeled as a long-term contract. The document uses quantitative analysis to compare these mechanisms and address questions about gains from risk sharing while preventing excessive transfers between very heterogeneous countries. It models the Fund as an economy where members trade state-contingent assets, with prices and borrowing limits determined endogenously to satisfy participation and incentive constraints.
Long-Term Sustainability of a Monetary and Fiscal UnionADEMU_Project
This document provides an overview of Jesús Fernández-Villaverde's presentation on the long-term sustainability of monetary and fiscal unions like the Eurozone. Some of the key ideas discussed are that monetary unions induce changes to member countries' political economies, both reinforcing and undermining sustainability. Understanding these changes is important to building a successful union. Evidence shows the euro reduced reform incentives in harder-hit periphery nations and increased them in Germany. Booms can obscure governance quality and change incentives and selection of politicians. There were two types of problems among troubled Eurozone nations: public debt issues for Greece and Portugal, and large real estate bubbles for Ireland and Spain.
How much of a fiscal union for the EMU? Has the answer to this, and related questions regarding the EMU fiscal and monetary framework, changed after 2016?
Carlos Mulas Granados: comments on Beetsma, Debrun and SloofADEMU_Project
Independent fiscal councils have proliferated in recent years to promote fiscal discipline. However, their effects are shaped by political conditions. Elections, political fragmentation, and ideology all influence fiscal outcomes. When political divisions are high, incumbents may choose not to create independent fiscal councils since they reduce congruence with voters' preferences. The document suggests empirical tests could provide evidence on when and how political factors determine the establishment and impact of independent fiscal councils.
Economic Policy Proposals and Law Judical Review as an exampleADEMU_Project
This document discusses judicial review of economic policy proposals and austerity measures in Europe. It examines how national constitutional courts and the European Court of Justice have reviewed austerity programs. While some national measures have been successfully challenged, the courts generally defer to governments. The document also analyzes legal challenges to actions of the European Central Bank, finding limited ability to seek review of the ECB. It raises questions about the appropriate division of authority between national and EU courts and optimal oversight of the ECB.
The EAFS and the policy mix - Marco ButiADEMU_Project
The recovery of the euro area has been particularly slow both by historical and international standards. Nine years after the economic and financial crisis struck, economic activity in the euro area is expanding at a moderate rate. However, the persistence of crisis legacies ─ such as the still-high unemployment rate and weak investment ─ suggest the recovery is not complete.
So far policy actions to support growth have excessively relied on monetary policy, resulting in an unbalanced policy mix. If monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth, is there a case for an expansionary fiscal stance at the aggregate euro area level? Can this be reconciled with the Stability and Growth Pact?
The presentation explores the concept of fiscal space and the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in surplus countries for the euro area’s internal and external adjustment. Finally, it discusses the build-up over the medium term of a fiscal stabilisation function at the central level.
Long-term Sustainability of a monetary and fiscal union. ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes Work Package 1 of the ADEMU research project, which aims to conduct analysis and develop proposals to ensure the long-term sustainability of the European Monetary and Fiscal Union. It discusses three components of the analysis: understanding sovereign debt crises, ensuring debt sustainability, and improving fiscal risk-sharing. It also summarizes several research papers that will contribute to each component and their key topics, such as minimizing future sovereign risks and designing a financial stability fund as a component of fiscal union.
Stabilisation policy in currency unions wp outlineADEMU_Project
This document discusses topics related to fiscal policy coordination in a currency union, including policy coordination approaches and challenges, fiscal multipliers theory and empirical evidence, and social insurance and labor market policies. Specific areas examined include tax competition between countries, the effect of different types of government spending on multipliers, the impact of unemployment insurance on labor market risk, and the role of social insurance policies at the union level in mitigating economic risks across members.
James Costain: fiscal delegation in a monetary unionADEMU_Project
The document analyzes mechanisms to restrain deficit bias in a monetary union, including fiscal delegation. It compares several policy games to analyze the macroeconomic and political-economic implications of delegating fiscal instruments in a monetary union. The paper models an economy with output varying based on surprise inflation and taxes. It then analyzes scenarios including a monetary union with decentralized fiscal policy (benchmark), and fiscal delegation systems that centralize some fiscal instruments. It aims to study the dynamic implications of fiscal delegation and whether large steady state gains justify short-run costs or impacts on business cycle stabilization.
This document discusses independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the EU and Spain. It outlines two systems of IFIs - the Anglo-Saxon model and European model. National IFIs aim to increase transparency, discipline, and sustainability of public finances. The AIReF was created in Spain in 2013 to oversee budget stability. It monitors Spain's fiscal targets and evaluates compliance. Recent reports call for strengthening IFI roles, including establishing an Advisory European Fiscal Board to complement existing national fiscal councils.
Debate on europe - How did Europe react to the economic and financial crisisAndrea Danni
How did Europe react to the economic and
financial crisis - Debate held at European College of Parma with the participation of Prof. Alfonso Mattera and Prof. Mario Monti
The document discusses arguments for fiscal centralization in the European Union based on lessons from other federal states. It argues that having decentralized fiscal policy alongside centralized monetary policy in the EU causes problems with adjustment to economic shocks and freeriding. The authors conclude that the EU should consider enforcing a no-bailout clause, allowing some independence for member states' revenue and spending, a system of fiscal transfers during crises, developing a euro bond market, and maintaining some flexibility.
A review of the European Union and the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the Eurozone countries. It discusses the way that the Eurozone managed the banking crisis in 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2011-12.
Presentation by Andris Vilks, Minister of Finance, Republic of Latvia at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
This document summarizes and critiques the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of the European Union. The SGP was created in 1997 to enforce fiscal discipline among EU member states and support the European Central Bank's monetary policy goals. However, the document discusses several economists who argue the SGP is flawed and fails to consider economic differences between members. It proposes an alternative pact focused on full employment and growth over the ECB's narrow price stability objective. The alternative would involve stronger EU institutions and fiscal policy coordination to better support the needs of the monetary union.
The document summarizes the European Commission's Green Paper on the Capital Markets Union. It discusses how the Capital Markets Union aims to diversify and stimulate Europe's financing environment by improving the efficiency and functioning of its capital markets. Currently, Europe relies too heavily on bank financing compared to countries like the US which have more developed capital markets. The Green Paper seeks input on a wide range of issues to develop Europe's capital markets and move the EU model closer to that of the US over time.
Bruno Gabellieri, 1o Συνέδριο Επαγγελματικής ΑσφάλισηςStarttech Ventures
Ομιλία – Παρουσίαση: Bruno Gabellieri, Secretary General, European Association of Paritarian Institutions (AEIP)
Τίτλος παρουσίασης: «Opportunities and Challenges for IOPRs across Europe»
Teodor Kalpakchiev. EU Economic Governance. Fiscal coordination.Teodor Kalpakchiev
This document discusses the European Union's economic governance framework. It covers the role and objectives of the European Central Bank in maintaining price stability. It also discusses optimum currency areas and the necessary requirements. Several policy mechanisms and frameworks are summarized, including the Six Pack, Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, European Semester, and proposals for the future like Eurobonds. The overall summary is that the document outlines the EU's fiscal coordination efforts and economic governance structures.
This document discusses economic convergence and divergence in Europe before and after the financial crisis. It makes three main points:
1) Before the crisis, economic diversity within the EU was not seen as a problem, as the EU had successfully enabled convergence among lower-income countries.
2) The crisis highlighted problems with economic diversity within the eurozone, as core countries were less affected than peripheral countries. It exposed flaws in the growth models of some southern eurozone countries.
3) To address these issues, the document argues that Europe needs both "more Europe" in the form of fiscal and banking unions, as well as "better Europe" through structural reforms and strict rules to reduce economic differences between countries.
This document discusses the history and development of economic and monetary policy coordination within the European Union. It outlines key events like the establishment of the Euro, adoption of the Stability and Growth Pact in 1997 to enforce fiscal discipline, and subsequent reforms to the Pact. It also describes the EU's economic governance framework, including the division of competencies between the EU and member states in economic policy, monetary union rules like the no-bailout clause, and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. The long-term goal of further political and economic integration within the EU toward a federal model remains an unfinished project.
1) The financial crisis prompted both short-term responses like fiscal/monetary stimulus as well as long-term structural reforms to financial stability frameworks.
2) The EU implemented new regulations through Basel accords and established the European System of Financial Supervision with institutions like the ECB Single Supervisory Mechanism and European Systemic Risk Board.
3) Coordination of fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies remains a challenge within the eurozone where policies are not as integrated, compared to other EU countries which can coordinate more effectively.
The tax neutrality principle was defined as a tax system not influencing the taxpayers’ business decisions. Economists usually use ‘the no tax world’ as the baseline to decide if a specific tax measure is ‘neutral. If a taxpayer’s reaction to a specific tax is the same as if there is no such tax, then it is neutral. Such formulation of tax neutrality is inappropriate to evaluate taxation in a regional market as European Union. This paper estab- lishes a new normative framework for evaluating the EU corporate tax law reform project, the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) Proposal, that aims to properly tax MNE taxpayers’ cross-border income by a pre-decided formula. The tax neutrality principle should be not be based on the no-tax baseline but interpreted as ‘faithfully reflecting the taxpayers’ economic activities throughout EU’. EU Member States should maintain proper fiscal autonomy to decide their actual administration inputs (the public benefit provided) and their own method to implement the EU level corporate group taxation (the subsidiarity principle). This trio-formulated neutrality concept falls between Rawls’ liberalism theory and Nozick’s libertarianism theory, closer to Liam Murphy and Thomas Nagel’s tax jus- tice theory. Such trio-combination also better regulates the interactions of the three actors in the EU internal market: EU, Member States and MNE taxpayers. This reformed neutrality is a more appropriate norm than one single economic or legal principle for the EU corporate tax reform.
Keywords: European Union – Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) – the tax neutrality – the benefit principle – liberalism – libertar- ianism – the subsidiarity principle – Formulary Apportionment – tax justice
1) If the EU did not exist, European countries would face greater economic instability without the euro as a common currency. There would be more volatility in exchange rates and prices, exacerbating the crisis in weaker economies.
2) Without EU coordination of responses, countries would be less willing to help troubled banks and firms for fear of revealing weaknesses. This could prolong and deepen the crisis.
3) A lack of cooperation could also increase protectionism as countries act solely in their own interests rather than working together.
This document calls for strengthening the European Monetary Union in three key ways: 1) Supporting national structural reforms through consistent use of EU instruments and new mechanisms. 2) Rapidly supplementing the EMU with a powerful European banking union. 3) Renouncing further tax increases or projects like the Financial Transaction Tax that could harm the economy. It argues these steps are needed to stabilize the eurozone long-term, ensure financing for the real economy, and avoid counterproductive tax measures.
The document discusses the history and current state of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It covers the establishment of the euro, benefits and costs of a single currency, economic challenges facing the euro area, and Europe's response to the financial crisis. The euro area is experiencing its first recession since the euro's launch. The crisis has exposed weaknesses in EMU and differences between member states, calling into question the sustainability of a monetary union without further economic and political integration.
Presentation by Marco BUTI, Director-General European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
This document discusses the link between the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in the European Union. It provides background on the establishment of the EMU, including the convergence criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. It then explains that the SGP was created to ensure fiscal discipline among EU member states after adopting the euro, as monetary policy was now centralized but fiscal policy remained at the national level. The SGP requires members to keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP and debt below 60% of GDP in order to support monetary stability within the eurozone.
The document provides an overview of economic and monetary union (EMU) in the European Union. It discusses how EMU was established through agreements in Maastricht in 1991 to further economic integration among EU member states. EMU involves coordination of economic and monetary policies across participating countries, including a single currency (the euro) and monetary policy set by the European Central Bank. While EMU has benefits like tax-free trade, some argue it does not serve the interests of individual countries and poses communication and policy challenges for members with differing economies.
Financial Transaction Tax as a Resource for the Covid-19 Crisis ? University of Ferrara
1) The document discusses a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) proposed by the EU to tax financial transactions as a new source of revenue.
2) It summarizes the key elements of the proposed FTT, including a 0.1% tax rate on most financial transactions. Enhanced cooperation was used to allow some EU states to implement the tax while others opted out.
3) A court case involving the Italian FTT is analyzed, where the European Court of Justice ruled the Italian FTT did not violate the free movement of capital as the tax applied regardless of residence and was linked to assets issued in Italy. Compliance costs for non-residents could not be excessive.
The EMS is an intergovernmental organisation created to provide financial assistance to Eurozone Members States in difficulty. It was introduced by the European Stability Mechanism Treaty signed on 2 February 2012. How does it work? How does it operate? What are ‘Dual limb CACs’?
le gouvernement économique for the EU: much ado about what?Anna Dekaltchouk
this is my presentation for Prof.Chang course at the College of Europe.
the views expressed are the full responsibility
of the author alone and do not engage the College of Europe.
les éléments contenus dans cette présentation n’engagent que son auteur et ne peuvent en aucune façon etre attribués au College d’Europe
This document summarizes and analyzes a policy paper that proposes a two-step market-based approach to debt reduction in the eurozone without default.
Step 1 involves the EFSF exchanging existing Greek, Irish, and Portuguese government debt for EFSF bonds at market prices over 90 days. Step 2 assesses debt sustainability and either writes down debt to market levels if sufficient, or agrees to lower interest rates with GDP warrants. The goal is to restore private market access without seniority over remaining private claims. The ECB would stop bond market interventions, and the IMF could provide bridge financing until fiscal adjustments are complete.
The European crisis and the challenge of efficient economic governance by Jue...Círculo de Empresarios
The document discusses the challenges of economic governance in the European Union and euro area. It argues that the euro area is not an optimal currency union due to too much economic divergence between member states. Past governance attempts relied on intergovernmental cooperation but lacked enforcement mechanisms. New governance agreements aim for more European oversight but it remains unclear if members will prioritize shared interests over national interests. The future of economic governance in Europe depends on effective implementation of new policies and cooperation between members.
The document analyzes the political economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It argues that EMU was a political project rather than economically justified, as countries did not meet the criteria for an optimal currency area. EMU risks increasing cyclical unemployment due to lack of independent monetary policy and inability to use exchange rate adjustments. While EMU may increase trade, these gains are outweighed by macroeconomic instability and potential for protectionism. Overall, EMU is assessed as an "economic liability" that could undermine relations and increase conflicts between European countries.
Similar to René Smits: Are current fiscal rules credible? (20)
Discussion of fiscal policies in the euro area: revisiting the size of spillo...ADEMU_Project
1) The document discusses a study that estimates fiscal multipliers and spillover effects within and between major euro area countries.
2) The study uses a quarterly fiscal dataset and local projections to estimate multipliers for different types of government spending, finding domestic multipliers around 1 and larger multipliers for public investment.
3) The study also finds predominantly positive spillover effects between countries, though effects are largely insignificant and smaller for Germany as the origin country despite it having the largest domestic multipliers. Trade channels are found to be important for explaining spillover effects.
Fiscal rules and independent fiscal councilsADEMU_Project
This document discusses improving fiscal rules and independent fiscal councils. It proposes:
1. Making fiscal rules more symmetric by compensating for past deviations from targets and updating recommendations based on economic changes.
2. Strengthening enforcement of fiscal rules by expanding conditionality of EU funds to all member states.
3. Encouraging economic resilience by linking fiscal and macroeconomic policies.
4. Simplifying complex fiscal rules through independent judgment, with escape clauses triggered by independent institutions based on economic circumstances.
The document also reviews the proliferation of independent fiscal councils and rules globally and their empirical impact on fiscal outcomes. Design features are important to councils' effectiveness.
Discussion paper: The welfare and distributional effects of fiscal volatility...ADEMU_Project
The document summarizes a research paper that evaluates the welfare and distributional effects of fiscal volatility using a quantitative model. The paper uses a standard Krusell-Smith model with government spending and tax shocks, calibrated to match wealth inequality. It finds that eliminating government spending shocks increases welfare by 0.029%, with effects increasing for wealthier households. The key transmission is volatility in marginal tax rates affecting returns for wealthy agents. The summarized paper is praised for its clear execution and potential for further research on portfolio choice and longer-term fiscal shocks.
A minimal moral hazard central stabilization capacity for the EMU based on wo...ADEMU_Project
This document proposes an "export-based stabilisation capacity" (ESC) for the Eurozone that allows for cross-border transfers in response to changes in world trade across different sectors. The ESC would provide transfers from countries less affected by a decline in world trade in a given sector to countries more dependent on that sector. This is intended to cushion economic shocks while avoiding moral hazard concerns since the transfers are based on exogenous world trade factors. A simulation using historical export data finds the transfers would be countercyclical and stabilize over time, suggesting the risk of permanent transfers is low. However, timely availability of sectoral trade data could pose practical challenges to implementation.
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt - working paperADEMU_Project
This paper explores the relationship between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Using data from the US postwar period and a panel of 17 advanced economies, the paper finds that fiscal multipliers are larger when a higher share of public debt is held by foreign residents rather than domestic residents. This is because when debt is held by foreigners, fiscal expansions face weaker crowding-out effects on domestic private consumption and investment. The paper develops a model to explain this relationship and employs various empirical methods to estimate fiscal multipliers conditioned on the foreign share of public debt.
Sovereign risk and fiscal information: a look at the US state of default in t...ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a paper that examines how fiscal information affects sovereign bond yields using historical fiscal data from U.S. states in the 1830s-1840s. It finds fiscal information indexes constructed for each state affected bond prices only during the crisis period after 1839. The paper rationalizes this using a costly information model. The document provides comments on identifying the direction of causality between fiscal information and bond prices, and measuring fiscal information and bond prices. It suggests exploring exogenous information components and using bond yields rather than prices in the analysis.
Hanging off a cliff: fiscal consolidations and default riskADEMU_Project
Fiscal consolidations through tax increases may have a limited effect on reducing default risk. While tax increases improve the budget balance, they also induce economic distortions by lowering returns in the formal sector and increasing tax evasion. This impacts the government's future ability to raise revenues, which investors incorporate into debt prices. The model shows fiscal consolidations may only marginally reduce default risk when revenue raising ability is imperfect.
Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premiumADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a research paper on using fiscal rules and sovereign bond spreads to anchor fiscal policy expectations. It finds that a fiscal rule targeting a ceiling on sovereign bond spreads, or "spread brake", outperforms a rule targeting a ceiling on debt levels, or "debt brake". A spread brake provides a more robust policy anchor that is better suited for heterogeneous economies. It allows borrowing levels to vary appropriately with debt intolerance. A common spread brake threshold maximizes welfare gains compared to a common debt ceiling. Future work is needed to determine optimal spread thresholds and implementation of spread brakes.
Limited participation and local currency sovereign debtADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a paper that builds economic models to explain the large increase in foreign holdings of local currency emerging market sovereign debt. The paper develops models with limited market participation and different investor types to show how foreign investor entry into local currency bond markets can increase when risk aversion is low. Simulation of the models using interest rate data suggests foreign holdings of local currency debt rose strongly after the Great Recession when developed country rates fell. The paper aims to understand the implications of changing currency composition and investor composition of emerging market government debt.
This document discusses optimal debt maturity management. It presents a model where a sovereign can issue a continuum of bonds with arbitrary cash flows to examine debt dynamics. The model highlights the role of liquidity costs in shaping issuance and maturity choices. It shows that income and interest rate shocks can lead to cycles in issuance as the sovereign balances liquidity smoothing versus consumption smoothing. Longer maturity horizons and interest rate shocks emphasize consumption smoothing over liquidity smoothing in transitions following shocks.
The document discusses sovereign default in a monetary union. It presents three motivating facts: (1) key interest rates falling to zero, (2) rising sovereign default risk and government borrowing costs, and (3) simultaneous increases in interest rates across euro area countries. The research questions examine how monetary policy and sovereign default influence each other. Key results show strong spillover effects between monetary policy and default. Default induces expansionary monetary policy and more default occurs in a monetary union. The zero lower bound prevents expansionary monetary policy and default causes large declines in demand.
Pre-emptive sovereign debt restructuring and holdout litigationADEMU_Project
This document discusses pre-emptive sovereign debt restructuring and holdout litigation. It presents two research questions: 1) How does holdout litigation influence pre-emptive sovereign debt restructuring? 2) How would a Sovereign Debt Resolution Mechanism (SDRM) influence sovereign debt restructuring? The document then outlines a model to address these questions involving a sovereign issuing bonds, a risky project with uncertain output, and the sovereign's choice to repay or restructure its debts, which can involve holdout litigation that imposes costs. Equilibrium outcomes will depend on factors like the bankruptcy framework and secondary market conditions.
1) The document analyzes how political factors influence sovereign debt markets and default decisions in emerging economies. It builds a database covering macroeconomic, debt market, and political data for 63 countries over 22 years.
2) Empirically, it finds that left-leaning governments have higher taxes and spending, pay higher interest rates that are more volatile, and face more countercyclical interest rates than right-leaning governments.
3) It then develops a model of sovereign default with endogenous political turnover between left and right parties to rationalize these findings. The model explores how fiscal policy, debt levels, and the probability of political replacement influence repayment and default decisions.
Sovereign risk and fiscal information: a look at the US state of default in t...ADEMU_Project
This document summarizes research on the impact of fiscal information on U.S. state bond prices during the 1840s sovereign debt crisis. Key findings:
- Researchers constructed fiscal information indices from newspapers between 1830-1848, finding they followed state legislative activities.
- During the crisis, higher indices lowered bond prices for defaulting states like Pennsylvania and Maryland. No such impact was found before the crisis.
- Before the crisis, more fiscal information raised prices for "new" states like Indiana, suggesting investors found such information valuable when states had less established credit histories.
- The varying impact of information over time and across states provides evidence that costly information processing affected bond pricing during the 1840s state defaults.
Debt seniority and self-fulfilling debt crisesADEMU_Project
This paper examines how tranching, or issuing different classes of debt at different levels of seniority, can affect government incentives to default on debt and vulnerability to debt crises. The paper develops a model where a government chooses optimal tax rates and haircuts on debt to maximize welfare. It finds that tranching is only effective at reducing default risk when the senior tranche is large enough to push the government into a "corner solution" where it fully defaults on the junior tranche. With an intermediate senior tranche size, tranching has no effect due to risk neutrality and convex tax distortions. However, making default on the senior tranche sufficiently costly can enable tranching to eliminate self-fulfilling debt crises even with an
Sovereign default and information frictionsADEMU_Project
This document summarizes a model of sovereign default and information frictions in bond markets. The model introduces information frictions between traders who buy sovereign bonds. There are two types of traders: informed traders who receive private signals about future income growth, and noise traders who buy bonds randomly. In equilibrium, the market-clearing bond price acts as an endogenous public signal that is influenced by both private signals and noise trader demand. This noisy information aggregation can increase sovereign bond spreads, debt levels, and default incidence compared to standard models, helping resolve puzzles in sovereign debt markets. The model provides a potential resolution to puzzles around high and volatile sovereign bond spreads by introducing information frictions between bond market participants.
Costs of sovereign default: restructuring strategies, bank distress and the c...ADEMU_Project
This document discusses a research project analyzing how the costs of sovereign debt default, including impacts on economic growth, are affected by the restructuring strategy employed and whether the default triggers a bank crisis. The researchers aim to identify transmission channels through which defaults impact GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows, and whether these channels are influenced by the default strategy. They use a dataset of debt default and banking crisis events in 69 countries from 1970-2013. Local projections and augmented inverse probability weighting methods are employed to estimate effects on macroeconomic variables while addressing endogeneity concerns. Preliminary results suggest defaults negatively impact growth, investment, and credit by weakening the financial sector, and these effects depend on the restructuring strategy and whether a bank
Ademu at the European Parliament, 27 March 2018ADEMU_Project
ADEMU scientific co-ordinator Ramon Marimon joined Marco Buti, director general of DG-ECFIN, DG Economic and Financial Affairs, Roberto Gualtieri, MEP and chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs at the European Parliament, Maria Kayamanidou, deputy head of DG Research and Innovation at the EC, and Vincenzo Grassi, secretary general of the European University Institute, to discuss ADEMU's proposals for the European Unemployment Insurance System (EUIS) and the European Stability Fund (ESF).
Revisiting tax on top income - discussion by Johannes FleckADEMU_Project
1. The document discusses a paper that models the effects of tax changes in response to the European debt crisis.
2. The paper uses an economic model with heterogeneous agents to examine four different tax policy experiments: increasing overall tax progressivity to maximize revenue or welfare, or increasing taxes only on the top 1% to maximize these objectives.
3. The model finds that increasing overall progressivity is best for maximizing welfare, while increasing taxes only on the top 1% is best for maximizing revenue.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
1. HOW MUCH OF A FISCAL UNION FOR THE EMU?
Banco de España, Madrid, 18-19 May 2017
Policy Panel “Are current fiscal rules credible? What is the role
of fiscal rules and of independent fiscal councils?”
Some observations
by
René Smits
Professor, Law of the Economic and Monetary Union, University of Amsterdam