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1
Sovereign Default:
The Role of Expectations
Joao Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles
Discussion by Wouter Den Haan
2
Punchline
•  This paper makes some (to me) surprising points in a
simple model
•  What are those points?
•  Multiplicity in sovereign debt model depends
crucially on
•  Small changes in timing
•  Borrower choosing “amount borrowed” or “amount to be
paid back” (inlcuding interest payments)
•  Whether the distribution of GDP has multiple peaks
3
The big question
What is behind (the fear of) sovereign default?
1.  Fundamentals?
2.  Self-fulfilling beliefs
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-1990
Oct-1990
Jul-1991
Apr-1992
Jan-1993
Oct-1993
Jul-1994
Apr-1995
Jan-1996
Oct-1996
Jul-1997
Apr-1998
Jan-1999
Oct-1999
Jul-2000
Apr-2001
Jan-2002
Oct-2002
Jul-2003
Apr-2004
Jan-2005
Oct-2005
Jul-2006
Apr-2007
Jan-2008
Oct-2008
Jul-2009
Apr-2010
Jan-2011
Oct-2011
Jul-2012
Apr-2013
Jan-2014
Oct-2014
Jul-2015
10 yr gov't bond yields (%)
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Germany
Fundamental or Sustainable Problem?
5
Mario Draghi (2012)
“The assessment of the Governing Council is
that we are in … a ‘bad equilibrium’, namely
an equilibrium where you may have self-
fulfilling expectations that feed upon
themselves and generate very adverse
scenarios. So, there is a case for intervening,
in a sense, to ‘break’these expectations …”
Do Self-fulfilling Equilibria exist?
ECB Press conference, transcript from the Q&A, September 6 2012
6
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crisis
Source: De Grauwe and Ji (2013)
7
Gross Government Debt (%GDP)
8
10-year sovereign debt yield
9
The model
Standard ingredients:
1.  Relation between supply for funds and interest rate
•  Risk neutral lender
2.  Relation between demand for funds and interest rate
•  Default has output cost
10
What is the twist here?
1.  Careful about what the borrower chooses
2.  Careful about timing
11
What does borrower choose?
1.  Borrower chooses amount borrowed: b
⇒ supply curve is R* = R (1 – F(1+bR))
2.  Borrower chooses amount due at maturiy: a = bR
⇒ supply curve is R* = R (1 – F(1+a))
12
Model implies standard figures
0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Figure 6: Choosing value of debt at maturity a or amount borrowed b
13
Why does borrower choice matter?
1.  Borrower chooses amount borrowed, b,
⇒ choice is not directly related to default probability
2.  Borrower chooses amount due at maturity, bR,
⇒ choice is related to default probability through R
14
Why does timing matter?
•  Creditors move first ⇒ Borrower takes R as given
15
Why does timing matter?
0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Figure 6: Choosing value of debt at maturity a or amount borrowed b
16
What do borrowing governments
actually do?
19-7-2016 press release for 10-year Spanish bond auction
•  Following the announcement strong Indications of Interest (“IOI’s”)
were received which surpassed EUR 15 billion (including EUR 3.1
billion of Joint Lead Manager interest) on Tuesday morning when the
Initial Pricing Thoughts (“IPTs”) of mid swaps +102 area were
released at 09:30 CET.
•  Given the strength of the IPT process with interest in excess of EUR
25 billion (including EUR 3.65 billion of JLM interest), the orderbook
officially opened within the hour, at the guidance of mid swaps +99
area.
17
Another reason for multiplicity
•  Distribution of output has multiple humps
•  For example, related to “recession” and
“expansion” regime
18
Another reason for multiplicity
1 1.5 2 2.5 3
1
1.5
2
2.5
Figure 5: Supply and demand for the bimodal distribution
19
Other points/questions
1.  What are qualitative assumptions on F(Y) needed?
•  Especially for supply curve with multiple upward-
slopping parts
2.  Quantitatively convincing?
3.  How robust are the results?
•  When default doesn’t mean lender gets nothing
•  Senior debt
4.  Are implications the same if monetary policy is
considered (unexpected deflation of debt)

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Wouter Den Haan's discussion of "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations"

  • 1. 1 Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations Joao Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles Discussion by Wouter Den Haan
  • 2. 2 Punchline •  This paper makes some (to me) surprising points in a simple model •  What are those points? •  Multiplicity in sovereign debt model depends crucially on •  Small changes in timing •  Borrower choosing “amount borrowed” or “amount to be paid back” (inlcuding interest payments) •  Whether the distribution of GDP has multiple peaks
  • 3. 3 The big question What is behind (the fear of) sovereign default? 1.  Fundamentals? 2.  Self-fulfilling beliefs
  • 5. 5 Mario Draghi (2012) “The assessment of the Governing Council is that we are in … a ‘bad equilibrium’, namely an equilibrium where you may have self- fulfilling expectations that feed upon themselves and generate very adverse scenarios. So, there is a case for intervening, in a sense, to ‘break’these expectations …” Do Self-fulfilling Equilibria exist? ECB Press conference, transcript from the Q&A, September 6 2012
  • 6. 6 Self-Fulfilling Debt Crisis Source: De Grauwe and Ji (2013)
  • 9. 9 The model Standard ingredients: 1.  Relation between supply for funds and interest rate •  Risk neutral lender 2.  Relation between demand for funds and interest rate •  Default has output cost
  • 10. 10 What is the twist here? 1.  Careful about what the borrower chooses 2.  Careful about timing
  • 11. 11 What does borrower choose? 1.  Borrower chooses amount borrowed: b ⇒ supply curve is R* = R (1 – F(1+bR)) 2.  Borrower chooses amount due at maturiy: a = bR ⇒ supply curve is R* = R (1 – F(1+a))
  • 12. 12 Model implies standard figures 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Figure 6: Choosing value of debt at maturity a or amount borrowed b
  • 13. 13 Why does borrower choice matter? 1.  Borrower chooses amount borrowed, b, ⇒ choice is not directly related to default probability 2.  Borrower chooses amount due at maturity, bR, ⇒ choice is related to default probability through R
  • 14. 14 Why does timing matter? •  Creditors move first ⇒ Borrower takes R as given
  • 15. 15 Why does timing matter? 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Figure 6: Choosing value of debt at maturity a or amount borrowed b
  • 16. 16 What do borrowing governments actually do? 19-7-2016 press release for 10-year Spanish bond auction •  Following the announcement strong Indications of Interest (“IOI’s”) were received which surpassed EUR 15 billion (including EUR 3.1 billion of Joint Lead Manager interest) on Tuesday morning when the Initial Pricing Thoughts (“IPTs”) of mid swaps +102 area were released at 09:30 CET. •  Given the strength of the IPT process with interest in excess of EUR 25 billion (including EUR 3.65 billion of JLM interest), the orderbook officially opened within the hour, at the guidance of mid swaps +99 area.
  • 17. 17 Another reason for multiplicity •  Distribution of output has multiple humps •  For example, related to “recession” and “expansion” regime
  • 18. 18 Another reason for multiplicity 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1 1.5 2 2.5 Figure 5: Supply and demand for the bimodal distribution
  • 19. 19 Other points/questions 1.  What are qualitative assumptions on F(Y) needed? •  Especially for supply curve with multiple upward- slopping parts 2.  Quantitatively convincing? 3.  How robust are the results? •  When default doesn’t mean lender gets nothing •  Senior debt 4.  Are implications the same if monetary policy is considered (unexpected deflation of debt)