1. TED KONNERTH, PHD
PRESIDENT/CEO
THE FUTURE OF LIGHTING
AND OTHER BITS OF HYPERBOLE

2.  Lighting Guy
 Industry Observer and Active Participant
 Talent assessment => Industry leaders
 Past Observations
 Future predictions
 Winners/Losers

3.  Channel Conflicts  Channel updates
◦ Distributors too slow ◦ Some movement
◦ Contractors resistant ◦ Barely moving
◦ Legacy Manufacturers ◦ Mixed performance,
in denial but a lot more talk;
adoption
 Channel profits  Profitability update
◦ Pyramid of profits ◦ Pyramid intact by
market
◦ Future profitability
◦ Future is progressive
decline

4.  Emerging trends  Trends updates
◦ Leased lighting ◦ Growing, slowly
◦ Franchised ◦ Growing
distributors ◦ Growing
◦ ESCO emergence ◦ Growing
◦ Electronic distributors ◦ Components only
◦ Channel consolidation ◦ hmmmm

5. 4 Clear divisions have formed:
Bulbs Components Modules Fixtures
LSG Die Xicato Cree
Philips Phosphors Bridgelux Big 4 Legacy
MSI Heat Sinks Terralux Outdoor guys
GE Power supplies OptoElectronix Specialty Guys

6.  Lamp replacement => “Power Ball”
 DC Power distribution => Gaining traction
 Building system integration => Darwinian
 Design =>  Hello?
 New markets => Blue Ocean
 Consolidation => Re-invention

7. Lamp Replacement
 4+ pound retrofits inside 20-yr old Edison
sockets isn‟t a strategy, nor safe
 T-8 replacements in existing ballasted
equipment with 20-yr old „tombstone‟
sockets is changing bad lighting into worse
lighting
 Prediction: Lighting will cease to pierce the
plane of the ceiling

8. DC Power Distribution
 Phase 1: home-runs to step-down
transformers
 Phase 2: Off-grid building design with native
DC power
 Prediction: Residential design will use solar
power to drive all lighting, sound, desk-top
and security in native DC; off-grid.
Commercial market will follow.

9. Building system integration
 Design will be collaborative across electrical,
data/com, lighting, security, sound and HVAC
 Lighting construction will migrate to low-
voltage integrators and software-centric
commissioning engineers
 Prediction: Smart building design will enable
a new building system approach: Lighting,
HVAC, Desk-top, Security, Sound, etc.
Software controlled.

10. Design
 Current: legacy guys are using their same
designs and tooling. LED guys: copy them
 2X2, Troffer, Shoebox, Cone of Light, Type 2,
Luminaire dirt depreciation, etc. EXTINCT!
 Prediction: LED guys will learn „lighting‟ and
legacy guys will learn LED. Quality Lighting
and Quality Design will intersect into a
holistic smart building Gestalt.

11. New Markets
 Commercial market is ripe for innovation
 Specialty applications: color, behavioral control,
horticulture, agriculture, etc.
 Blue Ocean strategy: where has light not been
before? What else can lighting „nodes‟ enable?
 Prediction: we will stop talking about „adoption‟,
and LED will simply become one part of an
overall system, called:
“lighting”

12. Channel consolidation
 New wave of upstart LED entrants will
experience Darwinian economics
 Legacy lighting manufacturers will remain in
their legacy new construction markets
 LED guys will control end-user markets
 Prediction: The US lighting market will
bifurcate: New Market v. Installed Market

13.  Design firms will change and morph into low-
voltage/electronic/software consultancy
 IES will remain relevant, but will change and
possibly merge with ASHRAE
 LED warranties will shorten to 1 year, due to
the market dynamics of electronics and
design practices that will un-tether lighting
from building construction

14.  Legacy guys will survive, in a similar format,
different optics; but in a smaller market
 Replacement LED bulbs are a supernova
market: super-hot and then gone
 “Sockets” are anachronistic
 Designers: your time is now, step it up
 Integrators: building automation, software,
solar dealers, data/com, sound.
Yours to lose.

15. 1. Clear, broad channel strategy, with multi-
industry ties (semi, CE, solar, telecom)
2. Multiple channel agility and relationships
3. Design innovation
4. Broad grasp of building product changes:
◦ HVAC, controls, security, communications
◦ Installation, labor issues, technology R&D
5. Capital
6. TALENT

16. “In times of rapid change, experience could be
your worst enemy” J. Paul Getty
Ted Konnerth, PhD
tk@egretconsulting.com
847-307-7125