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The LED Revolution

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A topline review of the lighting market and challenges of bringing LED technology to it effectively

Published in: Technology, Business
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The LED Revolution

  1. 1. FUTURE IMPERATIVES <ul><li>The LED Revolution </li></ul><ul><li>Kevin Willmorth </li></ul>
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Who is this guy? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>29 Years Lighting Industry Experience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Specifier, product designer, marketer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Author </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consultant to manufacturers and specifiers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technical writer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Educational program writer and developer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Copy writer for editorial content submission, PR, and information sharing projects </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consulting Editor to Architectural SSL </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contributing Editor to Illuminate </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Let’s Talk… <ul><li>We are at a threshold moment in lighting </li></ul><ul><li>We hope you will take this opportunity to actively interact with the various players here </li></ul><ul><li>Let’s expose some new opportunities and ideas! </li></ul>
  4. 4. Micro Term Objectives <ul><li>Review issues behind the movement toward Solid-State </li></ul><ul><li>Take a look at the challenges to realization of breakout growth </li></ul><ul><li>Look at why SSL is different </li></ul><ul><li>Review drivers of inaction </li></ul><ul><li>Quick review of market perceptions </li></ul><ul><li>Explore some thoughts on the role of creativity in exciting the market </li></ul>
  5. 5. 30+ Years of Progress <ul><li>1970’s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EPA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Title 24 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fluorescent and HID commercial dominance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Daylight integration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Parabolic louver </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1980’s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-level lighting control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fiber Optic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low voltage halogen </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic fluorescent ballast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compact fluorescent (plug in) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compact metal halide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Redress of all illuminance standards (lower) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indirect lighting revolution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ES and WM Fluorescent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>T8 Lamp </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1990’s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Induction lamp </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic HID ballast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic CFL ballast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DALI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LEED / USGBC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LED emergence (exit signs and display) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pulse metal halide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>T5 Lamp </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Occupancy controls </li></ul></ul>Energy conservation is is embedded in the lighting market
  6. 6. The Energy Issue Upon Us US Energy Information Administration Data 2007 Reduction of energy demand is needed to support population growth, expansion of developing nations, and domestic economic growth. U.S. Lighting Energy Summary Sector KWh/Month Number Buildings % Lighting Lighting KWh for Lighting Residential 920 122,471,071 15% 16,901,007,798 Commercial 6,307 17,172,499 27% 29,242,876,822 Industrial 110,946 759,604 15% 12,641,253,808 Total 118,173 140,403,174 58,785,138,428
  7. 7. Real Global Implication The number of buildings worldwide easily exceeds 2.5 Billion making issues of sustainability and conservation critical worldwide 140+ million bldgs 229+ million bldgs 88+ million bldgs 9+ million bldgs 466+ million buildings 1200+ million buildings
  8. 8. The Concern Over Mercury <ul><li>Converting all 122M homes would add more than 500 million fluorescent lamps into the waste stream each year </li></ul>Derived from 2000 EPA Data and EIA Energy Use data, utilizing the reduction schedule established by the Clean Air Interstate Rule (2007) Phase I and II, and the EPA Clean Air Mercury Rule (2005) Phase III, setting combined limits of 38 tons by 2010 and 15 tons by 2018 from 49 tons produced in 2000 Reduction is needed in both atmospheric mercury and mercury from lamp waste Hg (tons) through 2020 – using EPA mandated reductions
  9. 9. CO 2 and Air Pollution Issues <ul><li>79% of electrical power generation involves combustion of a fuel source </li></ul>US Energy Information Administration Data 2006 Beyond the implications on climate change, reduction of airborne emissions is essential to stop destruction of ecosystems and threats to human health worldwide.
  10. 10. Active External Influencers <ul><li>Domestic activities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2007 Energy Independence Act </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DOE funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EPA involvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enhanced California Title 24 and others emerging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PG&L and other municipal initiatives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State and local rebate programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>City wide LED adoption projects </li></ul></ul>Unlike other “designer” trends, pressure to advance improvements in energy use are now widely institutionalized
  11. 11. <ul><li>United States </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Independence Act 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>California GS lamp phase out </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Australia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Incandescent Ban by 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing movement to GS lamp bans throughout the EU </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Latin America </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving to energy saving lamps to manage energy demand </li></ul></ul>Global Movements Growing The issues of climate change and energy use for lighting are now embraced on a global scale
  12. 12. Active Domestic Influencers <ul><li>DoE </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Star </li></ul><ul><li>IEEE </li></ul><ul><li>IES </li></ul><ul><li>IALD </li></ul><ul><li>NEMA </li></ul><ul><li>USGBC </li></ul>IALD <ul><li>Lighting Specifiers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lighting Consultants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Architects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interior Designers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lighting Influencers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rep agencies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Showroom sales </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contractors </li></ul></ul>Building on 30 years of progress, the lighting and design community are embracing the issues readily and are working to advance progress rapidly and expertly
  13. 13. Technology Progress <ul><li>2007 and 2008 have been breakthrough years for SSL </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improvements in the quality of white light </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>70 to 92 CRI at 3,000k </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Raw lumen output approaching practical needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>100 to 600 lumen devices </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1000+ lumen luminaires </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standards of testing provide platform for uniform communication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>LM79, LM80, etc… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>More is needed, and more is coming </li></ul>
  14. 14. LED Efficacy Advancement Metal Halide Linear Fluorescent Halogen LED 3k White Light Package Device Lumens Per Watt Within Normal Product Environment 200 150 100 50 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Incandescent Compact Fluorescent LEDs are now IN THE ZO NE 85 2009
  15. 15. Proven Applied Efficacy PAR30 HAL LED 3k White Lumens Per Watt 650 Nominal Net Lumen Downlight Example 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 R/ER30 CFL LED products are being PROVEN – more coming 175 125 75 25 0 61 2009 <ul><li>LED directionality superior to CFL </li></ul><ul><li>Much more work is needed in appearance and glare control </li></ul><ul><li>Need more leading-edge product </li></ul>
  16. 16. Battlefield for lighting Courtesy Roland Haitz Cost / Performance Progress LED cost per lumen delivered continues to improve rapidly
  17. 17. Unprecedented Confluence <ul><li>The confluence of drivers within the market is pushing us toward an entirely new era in lighting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Largest demand for energy reduction ever </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greatest interest in environmental impact ever </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Widest range of available options ever </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projects are being funded </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Well? Is anything standing in the way of this becoming a runaway explosion of change? Can we get past obstacles smoothly to realize ultimate success?
  19. 19. The Challenges <ul><li>Perception </li></ul><ul><li>The Design Factor </li></ul><ul><li>Quality Factor </li></ul><ul><li>Changing of Minds </li></ul><ul><li>Distractions </li></ul><ul><li>Defensiveness </li></ul>
  20. 20. Perception Formation <ul><li>The battle for demand is fought out in the minds of customers </li></ul><ul><li>Perception of need is the result of accumulated impressions that form an irresistible desire in the mind of the customer </li></ul>
  21. 21. Perception of… So What? <ul><li>Just because an idea is good does not mean everyone will find a need for it </li></ul><ul><li>We all see great new products we appreciate, but never buy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Choices are rarely made objectively </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Perception vs. Action <ul><li>Most recognize a need and desire to reduce environmental impact, however… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Surveys indicate the desire to pay extra to meet environmental goals is low </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conservation is not perceived as a high energy priority in the general population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Surveys indicate more interest in finding new energy resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low tolerance to suffer personal change </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. The Design Factor <ul><li>Quality of light and delivered performance are top priorities </li></ul><ul><li>ROI and impact are determined within the context of a chosen design solution - not separate of it </li></ul>
  24. 24. Quality Perception <ul><li>Resistance to energy saving solutions increases whenever lighting quality is compromised </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CFL vs. Incandescent in residential market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preference for low CCT (3000k) white LEDs over more efficient 6,500k </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preference for high CRI over optimum lumens per watt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optical control preferred over glaring products of higher efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on applied design effect remains top priority, driving product selection over efficiency </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Changing of Minds <ul><li>The single hardest thing one can do is change another’s mind </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Change in approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Change assumptions or perception </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Change of routine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recovery from negative impressions </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Available Time <ul><li>We are all busy </li></ul><ul><li>We’re ignoring important information every day </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We set aside unsolicited information and never seem to get back to it </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are easily contacted - but very hard to reach </li></ul>
  27. 27. Distractions and Static <ul><li>Information overload </li></ul><ul><li>Marketing and PR over-saturation </li></ul><ul><li>Contradictory messages </li></ul><ul><li>Bad information </li></ul><ul><li>Outright deception </li></ul><ul><li>Hype without substance </li></ul><ul><li>Telling vs. informing </li></ul><ul><li>High pressure tactics </li></ul>
  28. 28. SSL - Evolution or Revolution? The emotional appeal of revolutionary language is compelling, but stirs up emotions, produces defensive reactions, and polarizes opinion - fueled by failures of technology to meet inflated early expectation Fuel Radiance Incandescence Solid State Emission Disruption ~1890 <ul><ul><li>5,000 Years </li></ul></ul>120 Years Evolution or Revolution? Electron Arc and Fluorescence Big Evolution ~1940
  29. 29. SSL Differences <ul><li>New Players </li></ul><ul><li>Integration Resistance </li></ul>
  30. 30. SSL New Player Entries <ul><li>New players from the electronics industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LED die makers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic integrators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All new product manufacturers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Large resource commitments involved </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SSL technology involves significant investment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expectations based on experience outside lighting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clash of Titans – electronics industry is as experienced and mature as lighting </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Integration Resistance <ul><li>SSL products place new demands on conventional luminaire manufacturers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thermal management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronics integration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New drivers, power supplies and controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher initial investment in time and materials </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Poor coordination </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Components </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attention paid to small entities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Need for education is a two-way street </li></ul>
  32. 32. Overcoming Inaction <ul><li>Confusion </li></ul><ul><li>Unnecessary Complexity </li></ul><ul><li>Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Context </li></ul><ul><li>Patience </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipation </li></ul><ul><li>Consistency </li></ul><ul><li>Objectivity </li></ul>
  33. 33. Avoid Confusion <ul><li>A confused customer will make what feels like the safest decision – do nothing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Confusing techo-jargon and insider language </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gaps in understanding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disconnects from applied need </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Too little and too much information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inconsistencies and contradictions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The cost of mistakes are a serious concern to decision makers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better safe than sorry </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. Unnecessary Complexity <ul><li>SSL products often require multiple components to assemble an installation </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipate application problems and provide solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clear presentation of complete “package solutions” needed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incomplete proprietary solutions are useless </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mixed systems are unacceptable </li></ul></ul>Power Supply LED Driver Controller Interface Control Converter Luminaire Building Controls Building Power
  35. 35. The Focus Pill <ul><li>Focus on end-use customers provides clarity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will the customer realize benefits? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much and how long will it last? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How does the product relate to the customer’s values? </li></ul></ul>Guessing what a customer might want is not the same as digging into the market and knowing what the customer needs
  36. 36. Understand Core Values 82% of value is based on the perception of the company, product use, and quality – why train the customer to think more of price too early? Source: H.R. Chally “World Class Sales Awards” Survey of 15,000 business customers 39% 22% 18% 21%
  37. 37. Context Drives Understanding <ul><li>Design context in real-world application is essential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will it improve design? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What is the intent of the product? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much will it cost to operate? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How is it installed and commissioned? </li></ul></ul>Presenting a product without knowing how the customer is going to use or apply it, just creates new problems
  38. 38. Know Thy Customer Channel <ul><li>Understanding of customer channels is essential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Confusion of residential, retail, and commercial segments is common </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disruptive channel approaches require greater understanding of existing - not less </li></ul></ul>
  39. 39. Patience is a Virtue <ul><li>The lighting market moves slower than electronic technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Absorption takes time </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corporate impatience creates unnecessary stress </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The need for rapid returns does not improve lighting quality, reduce costs, or improve the environment </li></ul></ul>
  40. 40. Consistency = Clarity <ul><li>Consistency is the only way to break through noise in the market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Too many products and messages fractures impact </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perceived inconsistencies disconnect products from companies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inconsistencies erode credibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not having an expected product or service is failure </li></ul></ul>
  41. 41. Objectivity Works <ul><li>Objectivity builds credibility, while strengthening the market space </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information sharing builds market knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduces customer cynicism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diffuses impact of unqualified competitors </li></ul></ul>
  42. 42. The Specifier Perspective <ul><li>Activity </li></ul><ul><li>Key influences </li></ul><ul><li>Expectations </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance points </li></ul>
  43. 43. LED Specification Activity Source: Zing Communications LED Specifier Study Where are you specifying LED products most?
  44. 44. Key Influences for LEDs Source: Zing Communications LED Specifier Study These influences are determinate within the context of a chosen design direction, not as separate means On a scale of 1-5 what are the leading influencers for selecting LEDs?
  45. 45. LED Product Expectations Source: Zing Communications LED Specifier Study On a scale of 1-5 how often do you specify the following LED fixture types compared to the others on the list?
  46. 46. Resistance Points Source: Zing Communications LED Specifier Study On a scale of 1-5 how significant are the following barriers inhibiting your use of LEDs as illumination sources?
  47. 47. The Promised Land The Promised Land for any technology is found at the crossroads of Value Recognition and Customer Desire. Here, rewards are paid out in the form of rapid demand growth…
  48. 48. Imagining Desire <ul><li>Focus on practical issues can stifle creative thinking at a time when free imagination should be playing a much larger role </li></ul><ul><li>Technical knowledge flows freely into a market excited to realize imaginative new designs and qualities </li></ul><ul><li>Imaginative new solutions creates market demand from the most powerful marketing tool there is - word of mouth </li></ul>
  49. 49. Obvious Products? Do current products represent the “best fit” of the technology today?
  50. 50. New Horizons? If the technology is so liberating to designers, why are there so few truly new products emerging?
  51. 51. Low Hanging Fruit? Is there untapped “low hanging fruit” hidden in the application of SSL in all-new product designs that enhance quality, solves old unresolved problems, and creates new thinking in the application of light in architecture?
  52. 52. We Are Not Done With Color Any color, any shade of white, any pastel. One luminaire, one control station. Unprecedented control of hue, intensity, and value not possible with any conventional source – Cool!
  53. 53. What About White Tuning? The Kruithoff study revealed that as light levels increase, observers prefer cooler light, and as they are dimmed, warmer is preferred. Until sold-state lighting, there has not been a way to put this to work in the real world – Cool!
  54. 54. 7 of My 100+ Pet Favorites <ul><li>A restaurant where diners can change the color and intensity of light on their individual table </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial light that mimics and compliments natural light through the day </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial light that reacts to occupant circadian rhythm in color/intensity and task focus </li></ul><ul><li>Retail lighting that responds automatically to customer traffic flow </li></ul><ul><li>Home lighting that provides incandescent qualities (warm dim) with high efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Retail and display lighting tied to the artist’s design intent, seasonal fashions, application effects </li></ul><ul><li>Lighting products that are more like transistor radios in construction – replace and recycle rather than service </li></ul>
  55. 55. Wilzig Residence “ I thought the project would be about cool, high tech fixtures with LEDs and fiber optics… the epiphany has been that we’d want to follow this approach in the design of any house, apart from old vernacular architecture.” Alan Wilzig Homeowner
  56. 56. Chanel Ginza “ Chanel Ginza is a good example of art, architecture and technology coming together to push the boundaries in all disciplines…” Darrin Nolen Peter Marion Architect
  57. 57. Segerstrom Concert Hall The stated goal was to “Deliver and illumination source which would allow [the architect] to work his design magic…” Cline Bettridge Bernstein
  58. 58. Haus im House …“ It had to be imaginatively lighted” to allow him to capture a balance between day lighting and electric lighting. LEDs luminaires in many forms filled the desired goal, with products that would never have been possible using conventional sources. Martin Haas Behnisch Architekten
  59. 59. Be Cool And Get Hot Nothing is hotter than being cool Coolness sells cars we don’t need, products we can live without, and drives desire deep into the minds of customers
  60. 60. THANK YOU <ul><li>Questions or Comments? </li></ul><ul><li>Let the discourse begin! </li></ul>

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