This document summarizes a presentation on strategic insights for boards. It discusses trends in technology, people, and finance that are disrupting businesses. It notes that while digital disruption has impacted over half of Fortune 500 companies, leadership is still lagging behind. The presentation recommends that boards practice continuous learning, collaborate with startups and academics, and use scenario planning to explore uncertain futures. It provides an example of four scenarios for the year 2035 under different assumptions about technology convergence and geopolitical stability. The presentation emphasizes that boards must look beyond the near-term and their existing networks to gain insights about potential futures.

1. Strategic Insights for Boards
Professor Robin Teigland, Chalmers University of Technology
Chair NED IPD-C Liselotte Engstam Innovisa/Digoshen & Multiple
Fernanda Torre, SIR, Stockholm School of Economics
Slides at www.slideshare.net/eteigland
4Boards.aiOctober 2019
4Boards.ai Project

2. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband/wifi
• Cloud, fog
• Internet of Things
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Autonomous vehicles
• Smart robotics
• VR/AR/Holography
• 3D/4D printing/ALM
• Blockchains
• Nanotechnology
• Quantum computing
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies, tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments

3. Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.

4. Companies progressing
but leadership falling behind
4Boards.aiResearch; Understanding Digital Maturity – MIT/CapGemini 2018

5. Boards tend to overestimate their
”Digital Savviness”
62%
of boards report
they are digitally
savvy
Source: MIT CISR 2014 Board Survey, 81 companies.
24%
of boards are
digitally savvy based
on public data
Source: MIT CISR 2018 Board Study, 1122 companies, based on
coding of public proxy data.
4Boards.ai

6. Digitally Savvy Boards -> Higher performance
• Companies with “Digitally
Savvy” boards
• 38% higher revenue growth
• 34% higher ROA
• 34% higher market growth
• 3 digitally savvy directors
required to impact performance
Source: MIT Research 2018
4Boards.ai

7. While 63% of CEOs
believe AI will have a
larger impact on the
world than the
internet,….
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf
…only 3% have
AI as fundamental to
the organization’s
operations.

8. 4Boards.aiResearch; AI in Europe & Sweden by EY and Microsoft 2018 (n=267)
Boards and Top Management not aligned on AI

9. FUTURE OF
VALUE
CREATION
Political Economic
Sociological
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Legal
Increasing uncertainty across PESTEL

10. All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know
we don’t know

11. So, how can we
prepare for the future?

12. “We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years and
underestimate the change that will
occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

13. BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…

14. …but with very different
access to resources, ideas, and signals
BA

15. Collective PESTEL
insights
Board competence
and composition
Continuous
individual learning
- Focused experts across PESTEL
- Dinners/meetings with experts & young talents
- Extended ”Safaris” & site visits
- Collaboration w/ startups, academia, public sector
- Networks, eg LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Meetups
- Experienced nomination committee
- Broad view of diversity
- Experienced in digital ”innovation” – esp globally
- Learning budget for each board member
- Online education/MOOCs
- Digital tools, eg tweetdeck
- Reverse mentor
Board activities for increased insights

16. Some digital tools

17. Looking into the future?
• Forecast
– How we think the future will be
• Vision
– How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
– What the future can be
– “Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?

18. Interdependent, yet quite different
elements of strategy
• Scenario Thinking
–Explore options. Practice divergent thinking
with incomplete/ambiguous information.
• Strategy Development
–Assess options. Examine choices and make
decisions and/or set a direction.
• Strategic Planning
–Implement actions. Make it happen.
Swinburne
Distant future
High uncertainty
Here and now
Low uncertainty

19. Two modes of thinking
https://cucumber.io/blog/2014/10/21/the-two-modes-of-thought-you-need-for-bdd

20. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
Scenario 4
Business More or Less as Usual
New
World
Order
High Technology Convergence
Low Technology Convergence
Scenario 2
Circular “ReGen” Villages
Scenario 3
Global Village Networks
Scenario 1
MegaCities in the ”Wild West”

21. Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
MegaCities in the ”Wild West”
National platforms drive out foreign platforms and
products. Global MegaCities thirst for resources and
products, yet a high level of piracy and terrorism
makes trade and transportation very dangerous.
SDGs are seen as impossible to achieve.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order
Four scenarios for 2035

22. Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Circular “ReGen” Villages
Self-sufficient, off-grid communities are enabled by
part-time “producers” in Gig Economy. High
protectionism with new energy resources, circular
technologies, and sharing mentality drastically
reduce demand for retail and trade so some SDGs are
reached.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order
Four scenarios for 2035

23. Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order
Global Village Networks
Nomadic communities across countries, in oceans,
and in space directly source products and services
from small, sustainable producers worldwide. New
energy resources and recycling and material
technologies make SDGs history.
Four scenarios for 2035

24. Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Business More or Less as Usual
Monopoly-platforms from China and USA dominate
trade by sourcing from global mega producers and
delivering directly on-demand to a vastly urbanized
world. Global initiatives to meet SDGs are pursued
yet progress is very slow.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order
Four scenarios for 2035

25. Boundary spanning enables scenario thinking
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery
3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment
4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks
Boundary
spanner

26. Avoid creating “echo chambers”
http://www.enronexplorer.com/focus/19185#

27. Professor Robin Teigland
Chalmers University of Technology
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@chalmers.se | @RobinTeigland

28. http://mgmt.imit.se/nummer/nr-2-juni-2019/#innovation-and-corporate-renewal-also-disrupt-boards
For more information
Liselotte Engstam
Professional Board Member,
Researcher in Projects: OSIRIS, SISUBoards,
4Boards.ai, Nordic Chairmen Practices