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Keynote Chalmers Transportation in Age of Digitalization

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keynote speech at Chalmers Conference in Sept 2019, https://www.chalmers.se/en/areas-of-advance/Transport/calendar/initiative-seminar-2019/Pages/default.aspx

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Keynote Chalmers Transportation in Age of Digitalization

  1. 1. Exploring the Future of Transportation Professor Robin Teigland Chalmers University of Technoloty Technology Management & Economics September 2019 www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@chalmers.se | @RobinTeigland
  2. 2. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Gig economy • Online learning • Sharing not owning • Sustainability Technology • Broadband/wifi • Cloud, fog • Internet of Things • AI/ML/DL/NN • Autonomous vehicles • Smart robotics • VR/AR/Holography • 3D/4D printing/ALM • Blockchains • Nanotechnology • Quantum computing Open Source • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending • Cryptocurrencies, tokens • Blockchains, smart contracts • Mobile money and payments • M2M/R2R payments
  3. 3. Disruptions.... the likes of which the industry hasn’t seen since the automated assembly line.
  4. 4. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
  5. 5. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  6. 6. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  7. 7. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP BMW 1916 135,000 $39B UBER 2009 25,000 $58B MARRIOTT 1927 176,000 $42B AIRBNB 2008 3,100 $35B WALT DISNEY 1923 201,000 $245B FACEBOOK 2004 40,000 $519B WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $319B ALIBABA 1999 102,000 $446B Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated August 2019 Something fundamental is changing
  8. 8. Transforming the transportation industry http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption
  9. 9. Shifting market logics Ericsson & Augur 2011
  10. 10. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
  11. 11. Pizzas, AI, robots, and AVs
  12. 12. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
  13. 13. https://www.outsite.co/
  14. 14. ReGen Villages: Fully self-sufficient http://www.regenvillages.com/
  15. 15. Increasing forces for local community and circular economies
  16. 16. So, how can we prepare for the future?
  17. 17. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future Conway 2003 What we don’t know we don’t know about the future What we know What we know we don’t know
  18. 18. A simple exercise Read out loud together
  19. 19. OPPORTUNITIESARENOWHERE
  20. 20. Looking into the future? • Forecast –How we think the future will be • Vision –How we want the future to be • Scenarios –What the future can be –“Alternative memories” from the future ? ? ? ?
  21. 21. FUTURE OF USER NEEDS Political Economic Sociological TechnologicalEnvironmental Legal PESTEL
  22. 22. Future of energy?
  23. 23. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle Scenario 4 Business More or Less as Usual New World Order High Technology Convergence Low Technology Convergence Scenario 2 Circular “ReGen” Villages Scenario 3 Global Village Networks Scenario 1 MegaCities in the ”Wild West”
  24. 24. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle High Technology Convergence MegaCities in the ”Wild West” National platforms drive out foreign platforms and products. Global MegaCities thirst for resources and products, yet a high level of piracy and terrorism makes travel and transportation a very dangerous business. Low Technology Convergence New World Order
  25. 25. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle High Technology Convergence Circular “ReGen” Villages Self-sufficient, off-grid communities are enabled by part-time “producers” in Gig Economy while high protectionism blocks foreign trade. New energy resources and circular technologies combined with a sharing mentality drastically reduce demand for all transportation forms. Low Technology Convergence New World Order
  26. 26. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle High Technology Convergence Low Technology Convergence New World Order Global Village Networks Nomadic communities across countries, in oceans, and even in space source products and services directly from small, sustainable producers worldwide, combined with new energy resources rapidly increase all transportation forms.
  27. 27. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle High Technology Convergence Business More or Less as Usual A few mega-platforms from China and USA dominate trade by sourcing from global mega producers and delivering directly on-demand to a vastly urbanized world. Traditional transportation steadily increases while renewables transition is slow. Low Technology Convergence New World Order
  28. 28. Four scenarios for 2035 Global Power Struggle Scenario 4 Business More or Less as Usual New World Order High Technology Convergence Low Technology Convergence Scenario 2 Circular “ReGen” Villages Scenario 3 Global Village Networks Scenario 1 MegaCities in the ”Wild West”
  29. 29. Products and services are becoming increasingly more complex…
  30. 30. ..and it will only continue
  31. 31. We Tend to Jump Right to the Future – To the Solution Mode Creative thinking does not start with brainstorming solutions A likely outcome is to produce the right answers to the wrong questions
  32. 32. Exploitation Exploration
  33. 33. BA Two individuals (organizations) with the same number of contacts…
  34. 34. …but with very different access to signals, ideas, and resources BA
  35. 35. Peniche, Portugal One Hour North of Lisbon
  36. 36. Centuries of Tradition
  37. 37. To enable small-scale fishing fleets to become competitive and sustainable through a subscription data service The Peladrone Project
  38. 38. People don’t want a quarter-inch drill, they want a quarter-inch hole. -Theodore Levitt, Harvard Professor of Marketing
  39. 39. From catching fish to searching for ocean litter Extending the Peladrone-as-a-service range
  40. 40. Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and Drones Recycling Ocean Waste with Carbon, Graphene, & 3D Printing Recovering Ocean Litter with Repurposed Fishing Vessels Manufacturing combined with Blockchain PENICHE OCEAN WATCH A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter Sustainable Ocean Entrepreneurship
  41. 41. Go4Surf 2Rodas The Green Warehouse Fishing Port SmartOcean ESTM CETEMARES EXAME 2019
  42. 42. Exploration
  43. 43. Robin Teigland www.robinteigland.com www.slideshare.net/eteigland robin.teigland@chalmers.se @RobinTeigland http://www.go4surf.pt/ Trond Gunnar Teigland tgteigland94@gmail.com www.PenicheOceanWatch.com @penicheoceanwatch If you love knowledge, set it free! OCEAN TECH HUB

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