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1
Crime
Analysis
for the
State of
Oregon
(Robbery)
November 23
2011
A thorough analysis of robbery counts and rates afflicting cities
across the state of Oregon. This analysis comprises robbery
counts in relation to month, year, and day of the week,
offender/victims ages, race, and most commonly stolen items.
The purpose of this analysis is to help allocate funds to the high
risk; high needs areas of distinct cities where robbery is
prominent.
Attn: Oregon
Department of
Justice.
Prepared by
Erasmo Ruiz,
B.A.
2
Introduction:
My team of analyst and I were recently granted access to the NIBRS reporting data base for
robbery counts in the state of Oregon. The results that stem from this analysis are staggering and
without a doubt eye opening. This analysis should help allocate funds to those areas currently
afflicted with high counts of robbery in the state of Oregon. We conducted this analysis with the
idea of locating the areas with the highest rates per 1,000 population and counts for robbery, as
well delving deep into what kinds of crimes certain offenders are committing. We analyzed
demographics, gender, race, and age of offenders and victims alike in order to fully rule out any
sort of bias. We conducted a in depth analysis of geographic locations of where robberies are
most occurring, a temporal analysis (day, month, year) of robberies; such as what day of the
week, month, or year these incidents are most prominent, and lastly we ran an analysis on the
types of property that were involved in each incident, as well as the estimated total value lost for
all robberies in Oregon. This analysis will hopefully help the Oregon Department of Justice
allocate and distribute funds according to the needs of each community; and serve as a reference
to better facilitate and implement crime control strategies.
3
PROBLEM:
For many years we
have been trickled
into believing that
crime rates in the
United States and
Oregon alike have
been increasing;
when in fact we have
been enjoying record
low crime rates and
victimization since
the early 1990’s not
only in Oregon but in
the entire nation. In
Oregon for example
we experienced fewer
counts of robbery per
city each year from
2005-2007. Salem
from 2005 to 2007
accounted for a
staggering 41.6% of
the total crimes
reported to NIBRS,
or a cool 397 of the
reported 955
incidents. Medford
ranked #2 in regard to
incident counts of
robbery for the years
2005-2007; unlike
Salem however they
only accounted for
14.7% of the total
955 reported crimes,
this however is still a
significant chunk of
robbery crimes
committed. The
question at stake here is how can we lower crime rates in our states capital (Salem),
Corvallis, Woodburn, Tillamook, and to the south of our state in Medford? What
initiatives or policing strategies must we take in order to make these cities safer for the
sake of its inhabitants, and for future generations? Table 1.1 to the left chronicles that
without a doubt the bulk of robberies for the state of Oregon are occurring to the South of
Portland; also the largest city in the state of Oregon. The top 5 cities Salem, Medford,
OREGON ROBBERY COUNTS PER CITY (2005-2007)
CITY f % RANK
ASHLAND 21 2.2% 8
AURORA 1 0.1% 30
CENTRAL POINT 3 0.3% 26
CORVALLIS 46 4.8% 4
DALLAS 8 0.8% 16
DOUGLAS, CO 21 2.2% 8
GERVAIS 5 0.5% 23
HUBBARD 2 0.2% 28
INDEPENDENCE 5 0.5% 23
JACKSON, CO 39 4.1% 5
KEIZER 33 3.5% 6
LA GRANDE 8 0.8% 16
LINCOLN CITY 20 2.1% 10
LINCOLN, CO 10 1.0% 14
MCMINNVILLE 33 3.5% 6
MEDFORD 140 14.7% 2
MONMOUTH 2 0.2% 28
MOUNT ANGEL 1 0.1% 30
NEWBERG-DUNDEE 14 1.5% 13
NEWPORT 18 1.9% 11
PHOENIX 3 0.3% 26
POLK, CO 6 0.6% 21
SALEM 397 41.6% 1
SHADY COVE 1 0.1% 30
SILVERTON 8 0.8% 16
STAYTON 7 0.7% 19
SUTHERLIN 7 0.7% 19
TALENT 6 0.6% 21
TILLAMOOK 5 0.5% 23
TILLAMOOK, CO 9 0.9% 15
WOODBURN 60 6.3% 3
YAMHILL, CO 16 1.7% 12
TOTAL 955
4
Woodburn, Corvallis, and Tillamook are all respectively to the south of Portland.
Ashland, Corvallis, and La Grande are all cities that host large state universities and
coincidently fall within the top ten in relation to rankings for Oregon Robbery incidents.
This leads us to conclude that perhaps a large demographic of 18-24 year olds, could be
at large contributing to higher counts of the robbery incidents in these areas. The theory
set fourth could well serve as a forecasting mechanism for future detection of crime
zones, as related to robbery in Oregon.
It can be observed that although we do have a multitude of robbery incidents in our state each
year, more than 53.93% (515) of these incidents reported are not cleared; meaning that more than
half of these robberies never apprehend an offender, or prosecute for that matter. The clearance
rates however for those incidents where an offender is identifiable account for 45.55% (435) of
the total reported offenses for (2005-2007). Some of these cases are cleared through citing the
offender to appear in court at a scheduled date, or potentially arresting him/her at the crime
scene. In the most unfortunate circumstances either the offender dies and is not able to be cited
or arrested, or the victim chooses not to prosecute for the offense at stake. Luckily here in
Oregon the clearance rate for these types of exceptional means crimes only account for 0.52% of
the total incidents as reported by NIBRS, for the years 2005-2007.
In Oregon the the handling of juvenile offenders within departments is fairly unpopular with only
37.7% (37) of those dispostitions being handled within this realm. This leads us into those cases
that are referred to the adult criminal justice system which in Oregon account for 62.24% (61) of
the total juvneile dispositions. Those juveniles convicted or accused of a measure 11 offenses
usually in Oregon after 1995 are required to be tried as adults and to serve adult sentences for
any crime involving rape, robbery, or murder.
Disposition of Juveniles f %
Handled Within Department 37 37.76%
Referred to Other Authorities 61 62.24%
Total 98
Clearance Rate for Oregon Robberies
Case Cleared Count Percent
No 515 53.93%
Yes - By Arrest or Citation 435 45.55%
Yes - By Exceptional Means 5 0.52%
5
Of the 1,209 reported
robbery crimes for the
years 2005, 2006, and
2007 it is observed that
Burglary/Breaking in and
entering directly is
correlated/associated
with Robbery itself; this
particular offense
constituted 40 (3.31%) of
the 1,209 associated
crimes of robbery. The
next most associated
crime to robbery is
destruction/damage/vandalism or property which accounted for 36 (2.98%) of the 1,209 robbery
crimes. All of crimes on the table to the left are associated crimes of robbery and the reason they
are is because many factors come into play when a person decides to commit an act of robbery.
A very broad example would be when a person is intending to rob someone’s car, and the person
fights back per se. They are perhaps injured or murdered for that matter. The general umbrella of
robbery then opens and what constituted only a robbery now also constitutes a nonnegligent
manslaughter/murder. All of which have to be reported to agencies such as NIBRS.
Kidnapping/Abduction is also highly popular amongst robbers, this usually happens when a
robber decides to kidnap or hold a person hostage because he/she is in the wrong place at the
wrong time. Either the robber had no idea that someone would be present during a break in
robbery, or kidnapped them for the sake of fulfilling his/her objectives. The next most common
associated offense with robbery is drug/narcotic violations which accounted for 37 (3.06%) of
the total associated crimes of robbery. This usually happens when someone who is caught in an
act of robbery, and when further investigated or searched by a law enforcement officer is found
to be in possession of illegal substances; this would now also open up the broad umbrella of
robbery and warrant an additional crime, on top of the robbery. As can already be seen, robbery
is so broad and has many other associated crimes under its umbrella. Robbery is the act of
committing the crime, but other caveats come into play such as the type of robbery, person(s)
involved, were there any victims
Crimes Associated with Robbery
Offense f %
Aggravated Assault 6 0.50%
All Other Larceny 7 0.58%
Arson 1 0.08%
Burglary/Breaking and Entering 40 3.31%
Counterfeiting/Forgery 1 0.08%
Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property 36 2.98%
Drug Equipment Violations 1 0.08%
Drug/Narcotic Violations 37 3.06%
False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game 3 0.25%
Forcible Rape 4 0.33%
Forcible Sodomy 1 0.08%
Impersonation 3 0.25%
Intimidation 13 1.08%
Kidnaping/Abduction 30 2.48%
Motor Vehicle Theft 1 0.08%
Murder/Nonnegligent Manslaughter 2 0.17%
Robbery 955 78.99%
Shoplifting 15 1.24%
Simple Assault 11 0.91%
Stolen Property Offenses (Receiving, Selling, Etc.) 6 0.50%
Theft From Building 1 0.08%
Weapon Law Violations 35 2.89%
Total 1,209
6
that were harmed, possibly raped, sodomized, were they intimidated, held against their will.
These are all different crimes completely distinct from the initial crime, all of which can
potentially be added to the final count of offenses committed by an individual, and warrant a
longer sentence for the offender(s). The least popular associated crimes of robbery for the years
(2005-2007) were forcible sodomy 1 (0.08%), counterfeiting/forgery 1 (0.08%), Arson 1
(0.08%), motor vehicle theft 1 (0.08%) and theft from building 1 (0.08%).
Comparing 2005 to 2007,
Salem, Corvallis, La
Grande and Woodburn all
experienced lower crime
counts, which entails that
indeed some sort of effort
was executed to reduce the
incidence of robberies in
these cities. Salem which
still leads the pack in
relation to the count of
robbery offenses for any
of the given years
surprisingly enjoyed an (-
11.2%) decrease in
robbery; Medford, also
enjoyed a minor (-7.3%)
decrease in total robbery;
down from 55 to 51
robbery incidents since
2005. Corvallis
experienced a (-25%)
decrease in robbery down
6 from 2005 to 2007. But
the city that without a
doubt experienced the
most percentile decrease
in crime was La Grande,
which managed to reduce
their previous robbery
count of 7 to merely 1 in
just 2 years, an (-85.7%)
decrease to be exact.
There was however a city
that did not experience as
much decrease in the amount of robbery counts, and that city was Woodburn, which only saw a
(-4%) decrease or 1 robbery crime since 2005.
CITY 2005 2007 % CHANGE
ASHLAND 6 13 116.7%
CENTRAL POINT 1 3 200.0%
CORVALLIS 24 18 -25.0%
DALLAS 2 2 0.0%
DOUGLAS, CO 14 4 -71.4%
GERVAIS 8 2 -75.0%
INDEPENDENCE 1 5 400.0%
JACKSON, CO 28 13 -53.6%
KEIZER 15 9 -40.0%
LA GRANDE 7 1 -85.7%
LINCOLN CITY 7 11 57.1%
LINCOLN, CO 3 6 100.0%
MCMINNVILLE 18 16 -11.1%
MEDFORD 55 51 -7.3%
MONMOUTH 1 1 0.0%
NEWBERG-DUNDEE 6 4 -33.3%
NEWPORT 8 12 50.0%
POLK, CO 3 1 -66.7%
SALEM 170 151 -11.2%
SILVERTON 3 4 33.3%
STAYTON 4 2 -50.0%
SUTHERLIN 7 2 -71.4%
TALENT 1 2 100.0%
TILLAMOOK 1 2 100.0%
TILLAMOOK, CO 5 3 -40.0%
WOODBURN 25 24 -4.0%
YAMHILL, CO 8 6 -25.0%
Grand Total 435 371
7
TEMPORAL:
As can be observed on the above graph, the most popular day for robberies to take place in
Oregon is on a Sunday, leading the pack and accounting for (15.56%) of the total robberies. The
least popular times for a robbery to occur for
the years (2005-2007) were Wednesday 143
(11.84%), Tuesday (15.56%), and Thursday
(15.48%). If I had conducted a survey and
asked people what day of the week they
thought a robbery would occur on, naturally
they would have said Friday or Saturday, and
the reason for this is that most people go out
and drink and/or are away from home.
Which one might think would lead to higher
crime counts of robbery. However the reality
is that both Friday and Saturday experience
almost the same amount of robberies as Monday and Wednesday.
15.65%
14.24%
15.56%
11.84%
15.48%
13.66%
13.58%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Oregon Robbery Offense Variation by
Day of the Week
Day f %
Sunday 189 15.65%
Monday 172 14.24%
Tuesday 188 15.56%
Wednesday 143 11.84%
Thursday 187 15.48%
Friday 165 13.66%
Saturday 164 13.58%
Total 1,208
8
The variation by month of Oregon Robberies shows that undoubtedly the month where one is the
most prone to robbery is in December (10.75%), and October (9.3%). However December has a
1.5% lead on October, accounting for almost 10.8% of the total robberies reported. It does not
come as a surprise that December is a month
where one is the most prone for robbery because
as we know people around the holidays become
desperate and are more susceptible to commit
crimes of robbery, and/or any of its associated
crimes. The months of March, April, and June all
respectively experienced lower robbery rates as
compared to December. March for instance
accounted for (8.9%) of the occurrences, April
(8.8%), and lastly June (9.6%) which made its
mark as the second highest month with the most
counts of robbery (2005-2007). The month that
had the lowest incidence of robbery was July,
which only accounted for (5.7%) of the total
occurrences. The next lowest incidence of
robberies was reported for the month of
November, which surprisingly only accounted for (6.6%) of the total robberies reported in
Oregon (2005-2007).
8.6%
8.0%
8.9% 8.8%
7.8%
9.6%
5.7%
8.2% 7.8%
9.3%
6.6%
10.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Oregon Robbery Variation by Month
Month f %
January 104 8.60%
February 97 8.02%
March 108 8.93%
April 106 8.77%
May 94 7.78%
June 116 9.59%
July 69 5.71%
August 99 8.19%
September 94 7.78%
October 112 9.26%
November 80 6.62%
December 130 10.75%
Total 1,209
9
As can be
observed by the
graph on the
left, Oregon
Robbery counts
have decreased
from 2005 to
2007. Since the
year 2005
Oregon has
experienced a
nearly (-5 %)
decrease in
robberies
overall. This
comes as no
surprise, since
recent initiatives
have been aimed
at deterring
future crime.
The bar graph to
the left indicates
the variation in
crime counts
across the years
(2005-2007) in
Salem, Medford,
Woodburn,
Corvallis, and Jackson, CO. A significant decrease in robbery counts is seen in Salem who
reduced their robberies by 19 counts over the three year period. Medford however did not
experience the same amount of decrease as Salem; overall they saw a reduction of only 4
robberies from (2005-2007), notably because of a slight increase in 2007, where the city
experienced an increase of 7 robbery counts. Corvallis also saw a decrease of 6 robbery counts
since 2005, with consistent reductions of crime each year, down 4 from 2005 to 2006, and down
2 from 2005 to 2006, for an overall reduction of 6 robbery counts. Without a doubt Jackson, CO
saw the biggest reduction in crime counts as compared to the other cities. This county nearly cut
their robbery counts by (50%) from (2005-2007).
2005
36%
2006
33%
2007
31%
Oregon Robbery Variation by Year
170
55
25
24
28
159
44
21
20
20
151
51
24
18
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
SALEM MEDFORD WOODBURN CORVALLIS JACKSON, CO
Top 5 Cities With Highest Robbery
Countsin Oregon (2005-2007)
2005
2006
2007
10
The table to the left shows the
counts per year starting with 2005,
which had a robbery count of
(435), followed by 2006 which had
a count of (403) robberies, and
finally ending with 2007, which as
can be seen also has a significantly
lower count of robbery than the
previous years (371).
GEOGRAPHIC:
Year f %
2005 435 35.98%
2006 403 33.33%
2007 371 30.69%
Total 1,209
11
One of the most important aspects
of crime analysis is to identify the
areas that are most conflicted with
robbery and/or crime. Gervais a
city with a population of only
2,451 without a doubt has the
higest RATE for robbery as
compared to larger cities (2005-
2007), such as Salem or Medford.
Gervais has a 4.5 per 1,000 rate of
robbery, which is very concerning
considering it only has a
population of 2,451. In simpler
terms this means that for every
1,000 people in the city of Gervais
there is a possibilty that 4.5 of
them will be burdened with a
robbery. The second higest rate per
1,000 robberies is Lincoln City
which has a 4.1 per 1,000 rate.
Like Gervaias the higer the rates
and the lower the populations, the
more likely you are to be a victim
of robbery. Woodburn has a rate
3.1 per 1,000 population and
Newport a rate of 3.6 per 1,000,
which like the previous mentioned
cities is very high. Salem which
has a population of 133,593 has
the same rate of robbery per 1,000
as Newport, which only has a population of 9,953. Yet these two cities have the same rate of
robbery which leads us to conclude that although Salem has more counts of robbery, they
undoutedly have lower rates per 1,000 population. The counts of robbery for Salem may seem
high, but rates are more powerful because they paint a more concise picture of the problem. Sure
Salem has more robbery counts per se, but the population of the city also has to be taken into
consideration. Naturally Salem is going to have more counts of robbery as compared to the other
cities because it has a larger population; however the RATE per 1,000 is more representative and
comparative to the rest of the smaller cities in the sample. The cities with the lowest rate of crime
per 1,000 were Monmouth, and Central Point, Oregon with a rate of 0.2 per 1,000, which are
notably low number in relation to their respective populations.
RATE & COUNT OF OREGON ROBBERIES BY CITY
CITY POPULATION f RATE
ASHLAND 21,068 29 1.4
AURORA 1,025 2 2.0
CENTRAL POINT 16,701 4 0.2
CORVALLIS 49,870 62 1.2
DALLAS 15,097 10 0.7
DOUGLAS, CO. 64,719 26 0.4
GERVAIS 2,451 11 4.5
HUBBARD 2,624 4 1.5
INDEPENDENCE 9,211 8 0.9
JACKSON, CO. 63,926 61 1.0
KEIZER 35,423 40 1.1
LA GRANDE 12,288 9 0.7
LINCOLN CITY 7,996 33 4.1
LINCOLN, CO. 24,885 19 0.8
MCMINNVILLE 30,980 41 1.3
MEDFORD 71,969 150 2.1
MONMOUTH 9,751 2 0.2
MOUNT ANGEL 3,429 1 0.3
NEWBERG-DUNDEE 25,209 16 0.6
NEWPORT 9,953 36 3.6
PHOENIX 4,416 4 0.9
POLK, CO. 20,122 8 0.4
SALEM 133,593 480 3.6
SHADY COVE 2,293 1 0.4
SILVERTON 9,200 12 1.3
STAYTON 7,385 8 1.1
SUTHERLIN 7,396 16 2.2
TALENT 6,150 6 1.0
TILLAMOOK 4,435 5 1.1
TILLAMOOK, CO. 19,161 14 0.7
WOODBURN 22,399 70 3.1
YAMHILL, CO. 36,221 21 0.6
TOTAL 751,346 1,209
12
OFFENDER PROFILE:
The most common age for Oregon robbery arrestees falls between the (18-24) age range. This
age group accounted for 213 of
the total reported Oregon
robberies (2005-2007), while
the (25-34) age range
accounted for 141, under 18
(juveniles) accounted for 98,
the ( 35-44) accounted for for
89, and (45+) accounting for a
mere 52 of the total robbery crimes in Oregon. This leads us to conclude that the (18-24) age
range is the most common age range among offenders and is contributing to the bulk of Oregon
robbery incidents. In brevity most of the robbery crimes are being committed by young adults.
For the total robbery crimes reported males accounted for 82.46% (489) of the total robbery
crimes, while females only accounted for 17.54% (104) robbery crimes.
The pie graph below indicates that the most common race among offenders for Oregon
robberies. Undisputably the most common among Oregon robbery offenders was White,
accounting for 504 (84.99%) of the total offenders, the second most common race was Black,
98
213
141
89
52
0 50 100 150 200 250
Under 18
18-24
25-34
35-44
45+
Age of Arrestees for Oregon
Offender Gender for Oregon Robberies
Gender f %
Female 104 17.54%
Male 489 82.46%
Total 593
13
accounting for 51 (8.60%), American Indian/Alaskan Native 12 offenders (2.02%), Asian/Pacific
Islander 10 offenders (1.69%), and 16 (2.70%) were offenders whose race was unknown.
The most common entry method for
Oregon robberies was “NO FORCE”
33 (82.50%), while on the other side of
the spectrum “FORCE” was used in 7
robbery crimes (17.50%).
Not shocking most of those arrested
for robbery in Oregon were residents
of the state, 334 (76.96%), while 75
(17.28%) were non-residents, and 25
5.76% were unknown or undetermined
as indicated by NIBRS.
2.02% 1.69%
8.60%
2.70%
84.99%
Race of Arrestees for Oregon Robberies
(2005-2007)
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black
Unknown
White
Entry Method f %
Force 7 17.50%
No Force 33 82.50%
Total 40
Arrestee f %
Nonresident 75 17.28%
Resident 334 76.96%
Unknown 25 5.76%
Total 434
14
In 267 (25.57%) of all robberies in the
state of Oregon there was some sort of
weapon used. However on a good note
688 (65.90%) did not involve a weapon
and in 89 (8.52%) of reported robberies
the use of a weapon was unknown.
VICTIM PROFILE:
Once again it is determined
that the age of victims fall
between the ages of (18-
24) age range accounting
for 329 of reported victims
(2005-2007), while the
(25-34) age group
followed right behind with
277victims, (45+) ranking
3rd with 206 reported
victims, 4th being the (35-
105
329
277
192
206
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Under 18
18-24
25-34
35-44
45+
Age of Oregon Robbery Victims
Weapon used f %
No 688 65.90%
Unknown 89 8.52%
Yes 267 25.57%
Total 1,044
Race of Oregon Robbery Victims
Race %
American Indian/Alaskan Native 0.62%
Asian/Pacific Islander 1.78%
Black 1.61%
Unknown 4.37%
White 91.61%
Total 1,121
15
44) age range 192 victims counts, and lastly the under 18 juveniles being the least likely victims
of robbery, accounting for only 105 of the total victims of robbery for Oregon (2005-2007). The
most common victims of robberies were White accounting for (91.61%) of those victimized;
while the second most afflicted by victimization were Asian/Pacific Islanders (1.78%), Blacks
(1.61%), and lastly the least victimized were American Indian/Alaskan Native only accounting
for (0.62%) of the total victims.
The gender with the most
robbery victimizations were
males accounting for 746
(66.5%) of robbery victims,
(2005-2007), while females
accounted for about half of
that, with only 374 (33.4%).
In one case the sex of 1
victim was unidentified;
however it only accounted for
0.1 or 1 case of the total robbery counts for Oregon.
Residency of Victim f %
Nonresident 134 16.67%
Resident 620 77.11%
Unknown 50 6.22%
Grand Total 804
Gender f %
Female 374 33.4%
Male 746 66.5%
Unknown 1 0.1%
Total 1,121
16
As is displayed on the above table most of the victims for Oregon robberies were residents of the
state 620 (77.11%), non-residents
accounted for 134 (16.67%), and 50
(6.22%) were victims whose
residency was unknown.
In Oregon robberies the most
common type of victim, as can also
be seen on the table to the left were
individual victims (1,121), with
businesses being the second most
victimized in relation to robberies
(364), society/public being the third
most victimized (68), and financial
institutions accounting for only (28)
of the 1,584 total robberies in
Oregon (2005-2007).
PROPERTY INVOLVEMENT:
17
The table on the left chronicles that
the total costs of robberies in Oregon
for the years (2005-2007) was
$1,208,422.1. The average per
incident was $46,477.8, while the
median was $5,715. These are
insurmountable amounts of money
that without doubt victims are
deprived of when they are victimized
and/or robbed. The most popular
item across the board for robberies
was money; this is ideal because
money is practically untraceable,
unless it is stolen from a casino or a
bank, and is also universally
negotiable. TV’s, Radios, or VCR’s,
all could be potentially harder to sell
by an offender. On the other hand
some of the most commonly stolen
items during robberies in Oregon
(2005-2007) were Automobiles
($75,558.2), Jewelry/Precious
Metals, ($46,102.3) and
Drugs/Narcotics ($58,660.7), and
Misc. Others ($207,281.3); they also
accounted for the bulk of the Oregon
robberies total ($1,208,422.1).
The most common
involvement in
Oregon robberies
was simply the type
of crimes where
items were stolen or
robbed; this accounted for 1,276 (97.03%), while Destroyed/Damaged/Vandalized items
accounted for 38 (2.89%), and those types of involvement where items were burned only
accounted for 1 case (0.08%) in Oregon (2005-2007).
Type of Crime Costs for Given Crime
Alcohol 876.2$
Automobiles 75,558.2$
Bicycles 4,970.1$
Clothes/Furs 11,862.7$
Computer Hardware/Software 9,670.0$
Consumable Goods 4,154.4$
Credit/Debit Cards -$
Drug/Narcotic Equip. 388.2$
Drugs/Narcotics 58,660.7$
Firearms 3,060.0$
Household Goods 4,000.0$
Jewelry/Precious Metals 46,102.3$
Money 716,525.2$
Negotiable Instruments 7,442.0$
Nonnegotiable Instruments -$
Office-Type Equipment 9,480.5$
Other 207,281.3$
Pending Inventory (of Property) -$
Purses/Handbags/Wallets 6,067.6$
Radios/TVs/VCRs 4,044.0$
Recordings-Audio/Visual 5,715.0$
Recreational Vehicles 2,864.7$
Structures-Single Occupancy Dwellings 1,175.0$
Tools-Power/Hand 8,352.7$
Trucks 15,600.0$
Vehicle Parts/Accessories 4,571.3$
Average 46,477.8$
Median 5,715.0$
Total 1,208,422.1
Type of Involvment f %
Burned 1 0.08%
Destroyed/Damaged/Vandalized 38 2.89%
Stolen/Etc. (incl bribed, robbed, etc.) 1,276 97.03%
Total 1,315
18
The table to the left directly
mimics what has already been
described on the previous
page, however this paints a
more tenacious picture in
relation to count of robberies
for each individual item, and
how much in percentile terms
they accounted for in Oregon
(2005-2007). Stolen money in
robberies accounted for 384
(29.2%) of the total items
stolen; while “OTHER”
accounted for (23.0%) or a
cool 303 offense counts.
Purses/handbags accounted
for 103 (7.8%) of the 1,315
total incidents reported, which
is significant and almost
directly correlates with
money.
Summary of Findings:
Property Type f %
Alcohol 48 3.7%
Automobiles 18 1.4%
Bicycles 22 1.7%
Clothes/Furs 86 6.5%
Computer Hardware/Software 8 0.6%
Consumable Goods 72 5.5%
Credit/Debit Cards 31 2.4%
Drug/Narcotic Equip. 3 0.2%
Drugs/Narcotics 24 1.8%
Firearms 4 0.3%
Household Goods 9 0.7%
Jewelry/Precious Metals 41 3.1%
Money 384 29.2%
Negotiable Instruments 6 0.5%
Nonnegotiable Instruments 11 0.8%
Office-Type Equipment 61 4.6%
Other 303 23.0%
Pending Inventory (of Property) 3 0.2%
Purses/Handbags/Wallets 103 7.8%
Radios/TVs/VCRs 22 1.7%
Recordings-Audio/Visual 25 1.9%
Recreational Vehicles 1 0.1%
Structures-Single Occupancy Dwellings 4 0.3%
Tools-Power/Hand 10 0.8%
Trucks 3 0.2%
Vehicle Parts/Accessories 13 1.0%
Total 1,315
19
After further analyzation of the compiled data we can safely say that the most common offenders
are white males, between the ages of (18-24); the most common victims are also white males
(18-24). Salem and Medford undoutedly have the highest counts of robberies as compared to
other citites in Oregon. But the most shocking occurance has to be the relationship between small
populations and high crime rates. Gervais a small community near Woodburn and Salem has a
higher robbery rate per 1,000 population than Salem which has approximatly 131 thousand more
inhabitants; yet despite this the small city of Gervais was able to have a robbery rate of 4.5 per
1,000 vs 3.6 per 1,000 in Salem. This is a serious indicator that perhaps Oregon should invest
more money into this community, or create job paths so that those that do engage in robbery for
necessity, can have a real source of income that will perhaps deter them from future engagement
of robbery. It was also observed that the month with the highest incidence of robbery was
December, leading my team and I to theorize about the possiblity of this occuring because of
disparity in family income and/or possible temptations that the holiday season brings. In the
month of December overall there was a surge of 130 robberies reported in Oregon by NIBRS,
roughly 1/10 of the total robberies (10.75%). The most common type of victim is by far
“individual,” which in Oregon accounted for 1,121 (71%) of the 1,584 total robbery victims. The
most common types of items stolen during robberies were money, “OTHER” and
purses/hangbags/wallets; which is really interesting because money usually is stowed in wallets,
purses or handbags. This lead our team to theorize about the possibility of money and purses
having some sort of associating with regard to robberies in Oregon. The theory is whether the
offender meant to steal the purse/wallet/handbag intentionally, or simply snagged it from their
victims thinking they had money inside. However future iniciatives to reduce robbery counts in
Oregon should be conducted in order to maintain peace and order within the bounds of our state.
20

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Stategic_Crime_Report_Crime_Analyses_340[1]

  • 1. 1 Crime Analysis for the State of Oregon (Robbery) November 23 2011 A thorough analysis of robbery counts and rates afflicting cities across the state of Oregon. This analysis comprises robbery counts in relation to month, year, and day of the week, offender/victims ages, race, and most commonly stolen items. The purpose of this analysis is to help allocate funds to the high risk; high needs areas of distinct cities where robbery is prominent. Attn: Oregon Department of Justice. Prepared by Erasmo Ruiz, B.A.
  • 2. 2 Introduction: My team of analyst and I were recently granted access to the NIBRS reporting data base for robbery counts in the state of Oregon. The results that stem from this analysis are staggering and without a doubt eye opening. This analysis should help allocate funds to those areas currently afflicted with high counts of robbery in the state of Oregon. We conducted this analysis with the idea of locating the areas with the highest rates per 1,000 population and counts for robbery, as well delving deep into what kinds of crimes certain offenders are committing. We analyzed demographics, gender, race, and age of offenders and victims alike in order to fully rule out any sort of bias. We conducted a in depth analysis of geographic locations of where robberies are most occurring, a temporal analysis (day, month, year) of robberies; such as what day of the week, month, or year these incidents are most prominent, and lastly we ran an analysis on the types of property that were involved in each incident, as well as the estimated total value lost for all robberies in Oregon. This analysis will hopefully help the Oregon Department of Justice allocate and distribute funds according to the needs of each community; and serve as a reference to better facilitate and implement crime control strategies.
  • 3. 3 PROBLEM: For many years we have been trickled into believing that crime rates in the United States and Oregon alike have been increasing; when in fact we have been enjoying record low crime rates and victimization since the early 1990’s not only in Oregon but in the entire nation. In Oregon for example we experienced fewer counts of robbery per city each year from 2005-2007. Salem from 2005 to 2007 accounted for a staggering 41.6% of the total crimes reported to NIBRS, or a cool 397 of the reported 955 incidents. Medford ranked #2 in regard to incident counts of robbery for the years 2005-2007; unlike Salem however they only accounted for 14.7% of the total 955 reported crimes, this however is still a significant chunk of robbery crimes committed. The question at stake here is how can we lower crime rates in our states capital (Salem), Corvallis, Woodburn, Tillamook, and to the south of our state in Medford? What initiatives or policing strategies must we take in order to make these cities safer for the sake of its inhabitants, and for future generations? Table 1.1 to the left chronicles that without a doubt the bulk of robberies for the state of Oregon are occurring to the South of Portland; also the largest city in the state of Oregon. The top 5 cities Salem, Medford, OREGON ROBBERY COUNTS PER CITY (2005-2007) CITY f % RANK ASHLAND 21 2.2% 8 AURORA 1 0.1% 30 CENTRAL POINT 3 0.3% 26 CORVALLIS 46 4.8% 4 DALLAS 8 0.8% 16 DOUGLAS, CO 21 2.2% 8 GERVAIS 5 0.5% 23 HUBBARD 2 0.2% 28 INDEPENDENCE 5 0.5% 23 JACKSON, CO 39 4.1% 5 KEIZER 33 3.5% 6 LA GRANDE 8 0.8% 16 LINCOLN CITY 20 2.1% 10 LINCOLN, CO 10 1.0% 14 MCMINNVILLE 33 3.5% 6 MEDFORD 140 14.7% 2 MONMOUTH 2 0.2% 28 MOUNT ANGEL 1 0.1% 30 NEWBERG-DUNDEE 14 1.5% 13 NEWPORT 18 1.9% 11 PHOENIX 3 0.3% 26 POLK, CO 6 0.6% 21 SALEM 397 41.6% 1 SHADY COVE 1 0.1% 30 SILVERTON 8 0.8% 16 STAYTON 7 0.7% 19 SUTHERLIN 7 0.7% 19 TALENT 6 0.6% 21 TILLAMOOK 5 0.5% 23 TILLAMOOK, CO 9 0.9% 15 WOODBURN 60 6.3% 3 YAMHILL, CO 16 1.7% 12 TOTAL 955
  • 4. 4 Woodburn, Corvallis, and Tillamook are all respectively to the south of Portland. Ashland, Corvallis, and La Grande are all cities that host large state universities and coincidently fall within the top ten in relation to rankings for Oregon Robbery incidents. This leads us to conclude that perhaps a large demographic of 18-24 year olds, could be at large contributing to higher counts of the robbery incidents in these areas. The theory set fourth could well serve as a forecasting mechanism for future detection of crime zones, as related to robbery in Oregon. It can be observed that although we do have a multitude of robbery incidents in our state each year, more than 53.93% (515) of these incidents reported are not cleared; meaning that more than half of these robberies never apprehend an offender, or prosecute for that matter. The clearance rates however for those incidents where an offender is identifiable account for 45.55% (435) of the total reported offenses for (2005-2007). Some of these cases are cleared through citing the offender to appear in court at a scheduled date, or potentially arresting him/her at the crime scene. In the most unfortunate circumstances either the offender dies and is not able to be cited or arrested, or the victim chooses not to prosecute for the offense at stake. Luckily here in Oregon the clearance rate for these types of exceptional means crimes only account for 0.52% of the total incidents as reported by NIBRS, for the years 2005-2007. In Oregon the the handling of juvenile offenders within departments is fairly unpopular with only 37.7% (37) of those dispostitions being handled within this realm. This leads us into those cases that are referred to the adult criminal justice system which in Oregon account for 62.24% (61) of the total juvneile dispositions. Those juveniles convicted or accused of a measure 11 offenses usually in Oregon after 1995 are required to be tried as adults and to serve adult sentences for any crime involving rape, robbery, or murder. Disposition of Juveniles f % Handled Within Department 37 37.76% Referred to Other Authorities 61 62.24% Total 98 Clearance Rate for Oregon Robberies Case Cleared Count Percent No 515 53.93% Yes - By Arrest or Citation 435 45.55% Yes - By Exceptional Means 5 0.52%
  • 5. 5 Of the 1,209 reported robbery crimes for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 it is observed that Burglary/Breaking in and entering directly is correlated/associated with Robbery itself; this particular offense constituted 40 (3.31%) of the 1,209 associated crimes of robbery. The next most associated crime to robbery is destruction/damage/vandalism or property which accounted for 36 (2.98%) of the 1,209 robbery crimes. All of crimes on the table to the left are associated crimes of robbery and the reason they are is because many factors come into play when a person decides to commit an act of robbery. A very broad example would be when a person is intending to rob someone’s car, and the person fights back per se. They are perhaps injured or murdered for that matter. The general umbrella of robbery then opens and what constituted only a robbery now also constitutes a nonnegligent manslaughter/murder. All of which have to be reported to agencies such as NIBRS. Kidnapping/Abduction is also highly popular amongst robbers, this usually happens when a robber decides to kidnap or hold a person hostage because he/she is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Either the robber had no idea that someone would be present during a break in robbery, or kidnapped them for the sake of fulfilling his/her objectives. The next most common associated offense with robbery is drug/narcotic violations which accounted for 37 (3.06%) of the total associated crimes of robbery. This usually happens when someone who is caught in an act of robbery, and when further investigated or searched by a law enforcement officer is found to be in possession of illegal substances; this would now also open up the broad umbrella of robbery and warrant an additional crime, on top of the robbery. As can already be seen, robbery is so broad and has many other associated crimes under its umbrella. Robbery is the act of committing the crime, but other caveats come into play such as the type of robbery, person(s) involved, were there any victims Crimes Associated with Robbery Offense f % Aggravated Assault 6 0.50% All Other Larceny 7 0.58% Arson 1 0.08% Burglary/Breaking and Entering 40 3.31% Counterfeiting/Forgery 1 0.08% Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property 36 2.98% Drug Equipment Violations 1 0.08% Drug/Narcotic Violations 37 3.06% False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game 3 0.25% Forcible Rape 4 0.33% Forcible Sodomy 1 0.08% Impersonation 3 0.25% Intimidation 13 1.08% Kidnaping/Abduction 30 2.48% Motor Vehicle Theft 1 0.08% Murder/Nonnegligent Manslaughter 2 0.17% Robbery 955 78.99% Shoplifting 15 1.24% Simple Assault 11 0.91% Stolen Property Offenses (Receiving, Selling, Etc.) 6 0.50% Theft From Building 1 0.08% Weapon Law Violations 35 2.89% Total 1,209
  • 6. 6 that were harmed, possibly raped, sodomized, were they intimidated, held against their will. These are all different crimes completely distinct from the initial crime, all of which can potentially be added to the final count of offenses committed by an individual, and warrant a longer sentence for the offender(s). The least popular associated crimes of robbery for the years (2005-2007) were forcible sodomy 1 (0.08%), counterfeiting/forgery 1 (0.08%), Arson 1 (0.08%), motor vehicle theft 1 (0.08%) and theft from building 1 (0.08%). Comparing 2005 to 2007, Salem, Corvallis, La Grande and Woodburn all experienced lower crime counts, which entails that indeed some sort of effort was executed to reduce the incidence of robberies in these cities. Salem which still leads the pack in relation to the count of robbery offenses for any of the given years surprisingly enjoyed an (- 11.2%) decrease in robbery; Medford, also enjoyed a minor (-7.3%) decrease in total robbery; down from 55 to 51 robbery incidents since 2005. Corvallis experienced a (-25%) decrease in robbery down 6 from 2005 to 2007. But the city that without a doubt experienced the most percentile decrease in crime was La Grande, which managed to reduce their previous robbery count of 7 to merely 1 in just 2 years, an (-85.7%) decrease to be exact. There was however a city that did not experience as much decrease in the amount of robbery counts, and that city was Woodburn, which only saw a (-4%) decrease or 1 robbery crime since 2005. CITY 2005 2007 % CHANGE ASHLAND 6 13 116.7% CENTRAL POINT 1 3 200.0% CORVALLIS 24 18 -25.0% DALLAS 2 2 0.0% DOUGLAS, CO 14 4 -71.4% GERVAIS 8 2 -75.0% INDEPENDENCE 1 5 400.0% JACKSON, CO 28 13 -53.6% KEIZER 15 9 -40.0% LA GRANDE 7 1 -85.7% LINCOLN CITY 7 11 57.1% LINCOLN, CO 3 6 100.0% MCMINNVILLE 18 16 -11.1% MEDFORD 55 51 -7.3% MONMOUTH 1 1 0.0% NEWBERG-DUNDEE 6 4 -33.3% NEWPORT 8 12 50.0% POLK, CO 3 1 -66.7% SALEM 170 151 -11.2% SILVERTON 3 4 33.3% STAYTON 4 2 -50.0% SUTHERLIN 7 2 -71.4% TALENT 1 2 100.0% TILLAMOOK 1 2 100.0% TILLAMOOK, CO 5 3 -40.0% WOODBURN 25 24 -4.0% YAMHILL, CO 8 6 -25.0% Grand Total 435 371
  • 7. 7 TEMPORAL: As can be observed on the above graph, the most popular day for robberies to take place in Oregon is on a Sunday, leading the pack and accounting for (15.56%) of the total robberies. The least popular times for a robbery to occur for the years (2005-2007) were Wednesday 143 (11.84%), Tuesday (15.56%), and Thursday (15.48%). If I had conducted a survey and asked people what day of the week they thought a robbery would occur on, naturally they would have said Friday or Saturday, and the reason for this is that most people go out and drink and/or are away from home. Which one might think would lead to higher crime counts of robbery. However the reality is that both Friday and Saturday experience almost the same amount of robberies as Monday and Wednesday. 15.65% 14.24% 15.56% 11.84% 15.48% 13.66% 13.58% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Oregon Robbery Offense Variation by Day of the Week Day f % Sunday 189 15.65% Monday 172 14.24% Tuesday 188 15.56% Wednesday 143 11.84% Thursday 187 15.48% Friday 165 13.66% Saturday 164 13.58% Total 1,208
  • 8. 8 The variation by month of Oregon Robberies shows that undoubtedly the month where one is the most prone to robbery is in December (10.75%), and October (9.3%). However December has a 1.5% lead on October, accounting for almost 10.8% of the total robberies reported. It does not come as a surprise that December is a month where one is the most prone for robbery because as we know people around the holidays become desperate and are more susceptible to commit crimes of robbery, and/or any of its associated crimes. The months of March, April, and June all respectively experienced lower robbery rates as compared to December. March for instance accounted for (8.9%) of the occurrences, April (8.8%), and lastly June (9.6%) which made its mark as the second highest month with the most counts of robbery (2005-2007). The month that had the lowest incidence of robbery was July, which only accounted for (5.7%) of the total occurrences. The next lowest incidence of robberies was reported for the month of November, which surprisingly only accounted for (6.6%) of the total robberies reported in Oregon (2005-2007). 8.6% 8.0% 8.9% 8.8% 7.8% 9.6% 5.7% 8.2% 7.8% 9.3% 6.6% 10.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% January February March April May June July August September October November December Oregon Robbery Variation by Month Month f % January 104 8.60% February 97 8.02% March 108 8.93% April 106 8.77% May 94 7.78% June 116 9.59% July 69 5.71% August 99 8.19% September 94 7.78% October 112 9.26% November 80 6.62% December 130 10.75% Total 1,209
  • 9. 9 As can be observed by the graph on the left, Oregon Robbery counts have decreased from 2005 to 2007. Since the year 2005 Oregon has experienced a nearly (-5 %) decrease in robberies overall. This comes as no surprise, since recent initiatives have been aimed at deterring future crime. The bar graph to the left indicates the variation in crime counts across the years (2005-2007) in Salem, Medford, Woodburn, Corvallis, and Jackson, CO. A significant decrease in robbery counts is seen in Salem who reduced their robberies by 19 counts over the three year period. Medford however did not experience the same amount of decrease as Salem; overall they saw a reduction of only 4 robberies from (2005-2007), notably because of a slight increase in 2007, where the city experienced an increase of 7 robbery counts. Corvallis also saw a decrease of 6 robbery counts since 2005, with consistent reductions of crime each year, down 4 from 2005 to 2006, and down 2 from 2005 to 2006, for an overall reduction of 6 robbery counts. Without a doubt Jackson, CO saw the biggest reduction in crime counts as compared to the other cities. This county nearly cut their robbery counts by (50%) from (2005-2007). 2005 36% 2006 33% 2007 31% Oregon Robbery Variation by Year 170 55 25 24 28 159 44 21 20 20 151 51 24 18 13 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 SALEM MEDFORD WOODBURN CORVALLIS JACKSON, CO Top 5 Cities With Highest Robbery Countsin Oregon (2005-2007) 2005 2006 2007
  • 10. 10 The table to the left shows the counts per year starting with 2005, which had a robbery count of (435), followed by 2006 which had a count of (403) robberies, and finally ending with 2007, which as can be seen also has a significantly lower count of robbery than the previous years (371). GEOGRAPHIC: Year f % 2005 435 35.98% 2006 403 33.33% 2007 371 30.69% Total 1,209
  • 11. 11 One of the most important aspects of crime analysis is to identify the areas that are most conflicted with robbery and/or crime. Gervais a city with a population of only 2,451 without a doubt has the higest RATE for robbery as compared to larger cities (2005- 2007), such as Salem or Medford. Gervais has a 4.5 per 1,000 rate of robbery, which is very concerning considering it only has a population of 2,451. In simpler terms this means that for every 1,000 people in the city of Gervais there is a possibilty that 4.5 of them will be burdened with a robbery. The second higest rate per 1,000 robberies is Lincoln City which has a 4.1 per 1,000 rate. Like Gervaias the higer the rates and the lower the populations, the more likely you are to be a victim of robbery. Woodburn has a rate 3.1 per 1,000 population and Newport a rate of 3.6 per 1,000, which like the previous mentioned cities is very high. Salem which has a population of 133,593 has the same rate of robbery per 1,000 as Newport, which only has a population of 9,953. Yet these two cities have the same rate of robbery which leads us to conclude that although Salem has more counts of robbery, they undoutedly have lower rates per 1,000 population. The counts of robbery for Salem may seem high, but rates are more powerful because they paint a more concise picture of the problem. Sure Salem has more robbery counts per se, but the population of the city also has to be taken into consideration. Naturally Salem is going to have more counts of robbery as compared to the other cities because it has a larger population; however the RATE per 1,000 is more representative and comparative to the rest of the smaller cities in the sample. The cities with the lowest rate of crime per 1,000 were Monmouth, and Central Point, Oregon with a rate of 0.2 per 1,000, which are notably low number in relation to their respective populations. RATE & COUNT OF OREGON ROBBERIES BY CITY CITY POPULATION f RATE ASHLAND 21,068 29 1.4 AURORA 1,025 2 2.0 CENTRAL POINT 16,701 4 0.2 CORVALLIS 49,870 62 1.2 DALLAS 15,097 10 0.7 DOUGLAS, CO. 64,719 26 0.4 GERVAIS 2,451 11 4.5 HUBBARD 2,624 4 1.5 INDEPENDENCE 9,211 8 0.9 JACKSON, CO. 63,926 61 1.0 KEIZER 35,423 40 1.1 LA GRANDE 12,288 9 0.7 LINCOLN CITY 7,996 33 4.1 LINCOLN, CO. 24,885 19 0.8 MCMINNVILLE 30,980 41 1.3 MEDFORD 71,969 150 2.1 MONMOUTH 9,751 2 0.2 MOUNT ANGEL 3,429 1 0.3 NEWBERG-DUNDEE 25,209 16 0.6 NEWPORT 9,953 36 3.6 PHOENIX 4,416 4 0.9 POLK, CO. 20,122 8 0.4 SALEM 133,593 480 3.6 SHADY COVE 2,293 1 0.4 SILVERTON 9,200 12 1.3 STAYTON 7,385 8 1.1 SUTHERLIN 7,396 16 2.2 TALENT 6,150 6 1.0 TILLAMOOK 4,435 5 1.1 TILLAMOOK, CO. 19,161 14 0.7 WOODBURN 22,399 70 3.1 YAMHILL, CO. 36,221 21 0.6 TOTAL 751,346 1,209
  • 12. 12 OFFENDER PROFILE: The most common age for Oregon robbery arrestees falls between the (18-24) age range. This age group accounted for 213 of the total reported Oregon robberies (2005-2007), while the (25-34) age range accounted for 141, under 18 (juveniles) accounted for 98, the ( 35-44) accounted for for 89, and (45+) accounting for a mere 52 of the total robbery crimes in Oregon. This leads us to conclude that the (18-24) age range is the most common age range among offenders and is contributing to the bulk of Oregon robbery incidents. In brevity most of the robbery crimes are being committed by young adults. For the total robbery crimes reported males accounted for 82.46% (489) of the total robbery crimes, while females only accounted for 17.54% (104) robbery crimes. The pie graph below indicates that the most common race among offenders for Oregon robberies. Undisputably the most common among Oregon robbery offenders was White, accounting for 504 (84.99%) of the total offenders, the second most common race was Black, 98 213 141 89 52 0 50 100 150 200 250 Under 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45+ Age of Arrestees for Oregon Offender Gender for Oregon Robberies Gender f % Female 104 17.54% Male 489 82.46% Total 593
  • 13. 13 accounting for 51 (8.60%), American Indian/Alaskan Native 12 offenders (2.02%), Asian/Pacific Islander 10 offenders (1.69%), and 16 (2.70%) were offenders whose race was unknown. The most common entry method for Oregon robberies was “NO FORCE” 33 (82.50%), while on the other side of the spectrum “FORCE” was used in 7 robbery crimes (17.50%). Not shocking most of those arrested for robbery in Oregon were residents of the state, 334 (76.96%), while 75 (17.28%) were non-residents, and 25 5.76% were unknown or undetermined as indicated by NIBRS. 2.02% 1.69% 8.60% 2.70% 84.99% Race of Arrestees for Oregon Robberies (2005-2007) American Indian/Alaskan Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black Unknown White Entry Method f % Force 7 17.50% No Force 33 82.50% Total 40 Arrestee f % Nonresident 75 17.28% Resident 334 76.96% Unknown 25 5.76% Total 434
  • 14. 14 In 267 (25.57%) of all robberies in the state of Oregon there was some sort of weapon used. However on a good note 688 (65.90%) did not involve a weapon and in 89 (8.52%) of reported robberies the use of a weapon was unknown. VICTIM PROFILE: Once again it is determined that the age of victims fall between the ages of (18- 24) age range accounting for 329 of reported victims (2005-2007), while the (25-34) age group followed right behind with 277victims, (45+) ranking 3rd with 206 reported victims, 4th being the (35- 105 329 277 192 206 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Under 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45+ Age of Oregon Robbery Victims Weapon used f % No 688 65.90% Unknown 89 8.52% Yes 267 25.57% Total 1,044 Race of Oregon Robbery Victims Race % American Indian/Alaskan Native 0.62% Asian/Pacific Islander 1.78% Black 1.61% Unknown 4.37% White 91.61% Total 1,121
  • 15. 15 44) age range 192 victims counts, and lastly the under 18 juveniles being the least likely victims of robbery, accounting for only 105 of the total victims of robbery for Oregon (2005-2007). The most common victims of robberies were White accounting for (91.61%) of those victimized; while the second most afflicted by victimization were Asian/Pacific Islanders (1.78%), Blacks (1.61%), and lastly the least victimized were American Indian/Alaskan Native only accounting for (0.62%) of the total victims. The gender with the most robbery victimizations were males accounting for 746 (66.5%) of robbery victims, (2005-2007), while females accounted for about half of that, with only 374 (33.4%). In one case the sex of 1 victim was unidentified; however it only accounted for 0.1 or 1 case of the total robbery counts for Oregon. Residency of Victim f % Nonresident 134 16.67% Resident 620 77.11% Unknown 50 6.22% Grand Total 804 Gender f % Female 374 33.4% Male 746 66.5% Unknown 1 0.1% Total 1,121
  • 16. 16 As is displayed on the above table most of the victims for Oregon robberies were residents of the state 620 (77.11%), non-residents accounted for 134 (16.67%), and 50 (6.22%) were victims whose residency was unknown. In Oregon robberies the most common type of victim, as can also be seen on the table to the left were individual victims (1,121), with businesses being the second most victimized in relation to robberies (364), society/public being the third most victimized (68), and financial institutions accounting for only (28) of the 1,584 total robberies in Oregon (2005-2007). PROPERTY INVOLVEMENT:
  • 17. 17 The table on the left chronicles that the total costs of robberies in Oregon for the years (2005-2007) was $1,208,422.1. The average per incident was $46,477.8, while the median was $5,715. These are insurmountable amounts of money that without doubt victims are deprived of when they are victimized and/or robbed. The most popular item across the board for robberies was money; this is ideal because money is practically untraceable, unless it is stolen from a casino or a bank, and is also universally negotiable. TV’s, Radios, or VCR’s, all could be potentially harder to sell by an offender. On the other hand some of the most commonly stolen items during robberies in Oregon (2005-2007) were Automobiles ($75,558.2), Jewelry/Precious Metals, ($46,102.3) and Drugs/Narcotics ($58,660.7), and Misc. Others ($207,281.3); they also accounted for the bulk of the Oregon robberies total ($1,208,422.1). The most common involvement in Oregon robberies was simply the type of crimes where items were stolen or robbed; this accounted for 1,276 (97.03%), while Destroyed/Damaged/Vandalized items accounted for 38 (2.89%), and those types of involvement where items were burned only accounted for 1 case (0.08%) in Oregon (2005-2007). Type of Crime Costs for Given Crime Alcohol 876.2$ Automobiles 75,558.2$ Bicycles 4,970.1$ Clothes/Furs 11,862.7$ Computer Hardware/Software 9,670.0$ Consumable Goods 4,154.4$ Credit/Debit Cards -$ Drug/Narcotic Equip. 388.2$ Drugs/Narcotics 58,660.7$ Firearms 3,060.0$ Household Goods 4,000.0$ Jewelry/Precious Metals 46,102.3$ Money 716,525.2$ Negotiable Instruments 7,442.0$ Nonnegotiable Instruments -$ Office-Type Equipment 9,480.5$ Other 207,281.3$ Pending Inventory (of Property) -$ Purses/Handbags/Wallets 6,067.6$ Radios/TVs/VCRs 4,044.0$ Recordings-Audio/Visual 5,715.0$ Recreational Vehicles 2,864.7$ Structures-Single Occupancy Dwellings 1,175.0$ Tools-Power/Hand 8,352.7$ Trucks 15,600.0$ Vehicle Parts/Accessories 4,571.3$ Average 46,477.8$ Median 5,715.0$ Total 1,208,422.1 Type of Involvment f % Burned 1 0.08% Destroyed/Damaged/Vandalized 38 2.89% Stolen/Etc. (incl bribed, robbed, etc.) 1,276 97.03% Total 1,315
  • 18. 18 The table to the left directly mimics what has already been described on the previous page, however this paints a more tenacious picture in relation to count of robberies for each individual item, and how much in percentile terms they accounted for in Oregon (2005-2007). Stolen money in robberies accounted for 384 (29.2%) of the total items stolen; while “OTHER” accounted for (23.0%) or a cool 303 offense counts. Purses/handbags accounted for 103 (7.8%) of the 1,315 total incidents reported, which is significant and almost directly correlates with money. Summary of Findings: Property Type f % Alcohol 48 3.7% Automobiles 18 1.4% Bicycles 22 1.7% Clothes/Furs 86 6.5% Computer Hardware/Software 8 0.6% Consumable Goods 72 5.5% Credit/Debit Cards 31 2.4% Drug/Narcotic Equip. 3 0.2% Drugs/Narcotics 24 1.8% Firearms 4 0.3% Household Goods 9 0.7% Jewelry/Precious Metals 41 3.1% Money 384 29.2% Negotiable Instruments 6 0.5% Nonnegotiable Instruments 11 0.8% Office-Type Equipment 61 4.6% Other 303 23.0% Pending Inventory (of Property) 3 0.2% Purses/Handbags/Wallets 103 7.8% Radios/TVs/VCRs 22 1.7% Recordings-Audio/Visual 25 1.9% Recreational Vehicles 1 0.1% Structures-Single Occupancy Dwellings 4 0.3% Tools-Power/Hand 10 0.8% Trucks 3 0.2% Vehicle Parts/Accessories 13 1.0% Total 1,315
  • 19. 19 After further analyzation of the compiled data we can safely say that the most common offenders are white males, between the ages of (18-24); the most common victims are also white males (18-24). Salem and Medford undoutedly have the highest counts of robberies as compared to other citites in Oregon. But the most shocking occurance has to be the relationship between small populations and high crime rates. Gervais a small community near Woodburn and Salem has a higher robbery rate per 1,000 population than Salem which has approximatly 131 thousand more inhabitants; yet despite this the small city of Gervais was able to have a robbery rate of 4.5 per 1,000 vs 3.6 per 1,000 in Salem. This is a serious indicator that perhaps Oregon should invest more money into this community, or create job paths so that those that do engage in robbery for necessity, can have a real source of income that will perhaps deter them from future engagement of robbery. It was also observed that the month with the highest incidence of robbery was December, leading my team and I to theorize about the possiblity of this occuring because of disparity in family income and/or possible temptations that the holiday season brings. In the month of December overall there was a surge of 130 robberies reported in Oregon by NIBRS, roughly 1/10 of the total robberies (10.75%). The most common type of victim is by far “individual,” which in Oregon accounted for 1,121 (71%) of the 1,584 total robbery victims. The most common types of items stolen during robberies were money, “OTHER” and purses/hangbags/wallets; which is really interesting because money usually is stowed in wallets, purses or handbags. This lead our team to theorize about the possibility of money and purses having some sort of associating with regard to robberies in Oregon. The theory is whether the offender meant to steal the purse/wallet/handbag intentionally, or simply snagged it from their victims thinking they had money inside. However future iniciatives to reduce robbery counts in Oregon should be conducted in order to maintain peace and order within the bounds of our state.
  • 20. 20