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دورة متقدمة في تخطيط الصيانة وجدولتها - الدكتور منذر القادري

عينة من المحتوى : تحليل معدلات الاحتمالية إيجاد أنماط الفشل: حساب احتمالات الفشل والموثوقية ، دراسة احتمالات العطل من البيانات التاريخية والخبرات المكتسبة عن العطل تحليل التكلفة المترتبة على الفشل تكلفة الإصلاح ، تكلفة صيانة المعدة وتكاليف الهلاك والإحلال تكلفة الفقد، تكلفة توقف المنظومة هن العمل تكلفة الفرصة المفقودة ، تكلفة عدم اكتمال الصيانة

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‫منذر‬ ‫المهندس‬ ‫الدكتور‬ ‫القادري‬ ‫والتطوير‬ ‫للتدريب‬ ‫األوروبي‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫مركز‬ info@ebctraining.net ‫والتحكم‬ ‫والجدولة‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫تخطيط‬
Maintenance Preventive M. “To Keep” Corrective M. “To Restore” A facility to an acceptable standard What is Maintenance?
The 6 Purposes of Maintenance Risk Reduction Least Operating Costs Maintainer The job of maintenance is to provide reliable plant for least operating cost – we don’t just fix equipment, … we improve it!
Understand How Machines are Designed When they design machines, like this shaft rotating in two bearings, they keep the parts in place by making the gaps between them very small. The hair on your head is about 0.1 mm (0.004”) thick. On this 25 mm (1”) shaft, the gap between the metal surfaces can be as small as 0.01 mm (less then 0.0005”). That is 10 times thinner than the thickness of your hair. That is very little space for things to move in. If the parts get twisted and distorted then that clearance disappears and you have parts hitting each other. Any machine in that situation will quickly fail. 25 - 0.01 - 0.025 25 + 0.01 + 0.025 L1 L2 L3 L4 TIP: THE SECRET TO GREAT EQUIPMENT LIFE IS TO … KEEP PARTS WITHIN THEIR DESIGN STRESS ENVELOPE!
Defect Creation & Failure Initiation
Common Defect Management Strategies
Defect Elimination & Failure Prevention If you don’t want problems you need to prevent their cause. If you don’t want high maintenance you need to prevent the causes of that maintenance.
Plant and Equipment Life Cycle Profits come from this stage of the life cycle, and are maximised when the operating costs are minimised.
Building for the Physics of Failure Strength Of the Material Environment and Operating Stresses Operating Risk Management Design for Reliability and Low Operating/Maintenance Cost Failure Mode Effects Analysis Reliability Engineering Life Cycle Mgmt
The Degradation Cycle Smooth Running Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Operating Performance Failed Impending Failure Change in Performance is Detectable Do Maintenance & Condition Monitor Equipment Unusable Repair or Replace The Failure Degradation Sequence P-F Interval Condition Inspection Interval P F Most parts show evidence, or exhibit warning signs, of failing – they follow a sequence of gradual degrading. As the vast majority of parts degrade their condition changes. These changed conditions can be observed and the parts replaced before they fail. Some items, like electronic parts, can fail without warning. Situations of huge, sudden stress or overload can cause parts to immediately fail without warning. Replace before parts’ condition gets to functional failure point
Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) Fundamentals • A failure is any unwanted or disappointing behaviour of a product. • A failure mode is the effect by which a failure is observed. Failure modes can be electrical (open or short circuit, stuck at high), physical (loss of speed, excessive noise), or functional (loss of power gain, communication loss, high error level). • Failure mechanism refers to the processes by which the failure modes are induced. It includes physical, mechanical, electrical, chemical, or other processes and their combinations. Knowledge of failure mechanism provides insight into the conditions that precipitate failures. • A failure site describes the physical location where the failure mechanism is observed to occur, and is often the location of the highest stresses and lowest strengths. www.BIN95.com We can foretell what parts are going to cause trouble by doing experiments, from conducting tests and by using past failure history of similar parts. If we can predict what will go wrong, and the conditions that will cause it to happen, we can design maintenance and operational loading strategies to give maximum part life.
Failure Mode Effects Analysis Failure Failure Mode Failure Mechanism Failure Site Car does not start Starter Motor does not run Corroded relay contacts Main contact of starter relay Hard disk failure Computer has no access to hard disk Hard disk address is 11 instead of 12 Line 87 in the hard disk driver software Toy has faded colour Colour changes from red to pink Accumulation of high UV dose Red plastic leg Once this is known we put strategies and practices into place to 1) Design-out the failure, 2) prevent the failure, 3) prevent the conditions 4) monitor the failure mode 5) replace before failure
What Makes a Productive Equipment Life? Robust, Suitable Design Built & Installed Correctly High Availability, High Capacity High Productivity, Low Operating Cost High Return On Investment Maintenance Planning and Scheduling add value here Operated Within Limits Maintain to Design Standard Continually Improved High Reliability Unit Cost = Cost Capacity When you make plant more reliable you work on the ‘capacity’ part of the Unit Cost equation. As a result you drive down the cost of your product because the plant is available to work at full capacity for longer. So you make more product in the same time for less cost.
The Asset Management ‘Journey’ Regress Reactive Planned Reliability Strategic Fix it after it breaks Fix it before it breaks Don’t just fix it, improve it Don’t just improve it, optimise it Predict Plan Schedule Coordinate Cost Focus Eliminate Defects Improve Precision Redesign Value Focus Alignment (shared vision) Integration (Supply, Operations, Marketing) Differentiation (System Performance) Alliances Performance Don’t fix it, delay the fix Urgency Overtime Large store Rewards: Motivator: Behaviour: Staged Decay Overtime No Surprises Competitive Best in Class Short Term Savings Heroes Competitive Advantage Meet Budget Breakdowns Avoid Failures Uptime Growth Survival Responding Org. Discipline Org. Learning Optimisation
Type of Maintenance
Maintenance Types and Policies
17 ‫الصيانة‬ ‫انواع‬ Maintenance Types ‫مخططة‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫مخططة‬ ‫غير‬ ‫صيانة‬ Unplanned Maintenance ‫الصيانةاالسعافية‬ Breakdown Maintenance ‫التصحيحية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ (Corrective maintenance ) ‫الدورية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ Routine Maintenance ‫اآللة‬ ‫حالة‬ ‫على‬ ‫االعتماد‬ Condition Based Maintenance ‫التنبؤية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ Predictive Maintenance ‫هندسة‬ ‫الوثوقية‬ Reliability Engineering ‫الوقائية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ PM ‫العمل‬ ‫اثناء‬ ‫اعتيادية‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫التوق‬ ‫اثناء‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫ف‬ ‫نظافة‬ ‫فحص‬ ‫تزييت‬ ‫التالفة‬ ‫االجزاء‬ ‫فحص‬ ‫وتعديل‬ ‫ضبط‬ ‫االجزاء‬ ‫بعض‬ ‫تغيير‬ ‫االهتزازات‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫الزيوت‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫الحرارة‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫قياس‬ ‫قياس‬ ‫الضغط‬ ، ‫الصوت‬ ... Planned Maintenance Maintenance Type
Today’s Best Practice Maintenance Methodology (still misses the target!) CM = Condition Monitoring
Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Phases Setup Define and Analyze the Situation Develop and Prepare for Delivery Implement Review Sustain
Maintenance Strategy Implementation Breakdown Preventive Predictive 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Percentage of Maintenance Time by Strategy
‫خطوات‬ ‫اعداد‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫خطة‬ 8 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫قصيرة‬ .a ‫األعمال‬ ‫توزيع‬ .b ‫جانت‬ ‫جدول‬ ‫اعداد‬ .1 ‫قائمة‬ ‫اعداد‬ ‫المنشأة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصول‬ ‫بجميع‬ 2 . ‫تصنيف‬ ‫أل‬ ‫وتقسيمها‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫أو‬ ‫المنشأة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الموجود‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫كافة‬ ‫نممة‬ 3 . ‫تحديد‬ ‫األولويات‬ : ‫أهميتها‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫المعدات‬ ‫تصنيف‬ 4 . ‫ادراج‬ ‫المعدات‬ ‫بيانات‬ / ‫بطاقة‬ ‫أصل‬ ( / ‫رقم‬ ( ‫كود‬ ) ‫تاري‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫تصنيع‬ ‫تاريخ‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المسؤول‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫موقع‬ ، ‫المعدة‬ ‫وميفة‬ ، ‫المعدة‬ ‫اسم‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫بدء‬ ‫خ‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫حالة‬ ،‫باختصار‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫مواصفات‬ ‫االستهالكية‬ ‫المواد‬ ،‫الصيانة‬ ‫منفذ‬ ‫وفني‬ ‫المستبدلة‬ ‫والمواد‬ ‫والتواريخ‬ ‫باألعمال‬ ‫اعطالها‬ ‫سجل‬، ‫االستهالك‬ ، ). 5 . ‫الوقائية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ملف‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫مكون‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ .a ‫توفير‬ ‫المصنعة‬ ‫الشركة‬ ‫وتعليمات‬ ‫الكتالوجات‬ ‫المخططات‬ . .b ‫تحديد‬ ‫وأعمال‬ ‫الفحص‬ ‫قوائم‬ ‫وإجراءات‬ ‫وخطوات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫الصيانة‬ .c ‫ومواد‬ ‫التبديلية‬ ‫القطع‬ ‫قوائم‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ . .d ‫الصيانة‬ ‫دورية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ( ‫سنوي‬ ،‫سنوي‬ ‫نصف‬ ، ‫ربعي‬ ،‫شهري‬ ، ‫أسبوعي‬ ، ‫يومي‬ ) .e ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫مدة‬ ‫تحديد‬ ( ‫الساعات‬ ‫عدد‬ ) .f ‫تحديد‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫العمالة‬ .g ‫تحديد‬ ‫األدوات‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ألعمال‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫واألجهزة‬ .h ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫تكاليف‬ ‫تقدير‬ .i ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بطاقات‬ ‫اعداد‬ 6 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫طويلة‬ 7 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫متوسطة‬ .9 ‫االعتماد‬ ‫الميزانية‬ ‫و‬
‫الصيانة‬ ‫وإدارة‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫الممارسات‬ ‫أفضل‬
‫األصول‬ ‫نصنف‬ ‫كيف‬ ‫الفئة‬ ‫التفاصيل‬ ‫إنتاجية‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫تقديم‬ ‫في‬ ‫مباشرة‬ ‫ستخدم‬ُ‫ت‬ ‫التي‬ ‫األصول‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫تول‬ ‫توربينات‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫يد‬ ) . ‫داعمة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫العملية‬ ‫ن‬ّ‫ك‬‫تم‬ ‫التي‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫شبكات‬ ،‫المحطات‬ ‫تبريد‬ ‫أنممة‬ (IT ‫تحتية‬ ‫بنية‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫الطويل‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫الثابتة‬ ‫األصول‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫الم‬ ‫خزانات‬ ،‫الكهرباء‬ ‫نقل‬ ‫خطوط‬ ‫ياه‬ ) . ‫على‬ ‫تعتمد‬ ‫رئيسية‬ ‫معايير‬ ‫لعدة‬ ً‫ا‬‫وفق‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫تصنيف‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫أهميتها‬ ،‫وظيفتها‬ ،‫طبيعتها‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ، ‫المادية‬ ‫وقيمتها‬ .
‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫األهمية‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ( ‫الحرجة‬ ) ‫المستوى‬ ‫المعايير‬ ‫أمثلة‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫تح‬ ‫أو‬ ‫بالكامل‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫تتوقف‬ ‫تعطلت‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫دث‬ ‫كبيرة‬ ‫أضرار‬ . - ‫استبدالها‬ ‫صعوبة‬ . ‫الج‬ ‫محوالت‬ ،‫الرئيسية‬ ‫التحلية‬ ‫محطات‬ ‫هد‬ ‫العالي‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫شبه‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫ولكن‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫من‬ ‫جزء‬ ‫على‬ ‫يؤثر‬ ‫تعطلها‬ ‫كامل‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫ليس‬ . ‫التوز‬ ‫كابالت‬ ،‫الفرعية‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫مضخات‬ ‫يع‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫غير‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫تأجيل‬ ‫مكن‬ُ‫ي‬‫و‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫يوقف‬ ‫ال‬ ‫تعطلها‬ ‫إصالحها‬ . ‫الخارجية‬ ‫اإلنارة‬ ‫أنممة‬ ،‫المكاتب‬ ‫أثاث‬
‫والصيانة‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ‫الفئة‬ ‫الخصائص‬ ‫جديدة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫وقائية‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تحتاج‬ ،‫الضمان‬ ‫تحت‬ . ‫العمر‬ ‫متوسطة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫أداء‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫دورية‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تحتاج‬ . ‫قديمة‬ ‫أصول‬ ً‫ال‬‫استبدا‬ ‫أو‬ ‫مكثفة‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تتطلب‬ ( ‫تحليل‬ ‫عبر‬ ‫حدد‬ُ‫ي‬ " ‫تكل‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫فة‬ )" .
‫المالية‬ ‫القيمة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التصنيف‬ • ‫القيمة‬ ‫عالية‬ ‫أصول‬ : ‫مرتفعة‬ ‫استبدالها‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫توليد‬ ‫محطات‬ ) . • ‫متوسطة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫القيمة‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫أنممة‬ ‫المركزي‬ ‫والتبريد‬ ‫التكييف‬ ( • ‫منخفضة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫القيمة‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫متوسطة‬ ‫ونسخ‬ ‫طباعة‬ ‫ألة‬ , ‫أدوات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫الروتينية‬ (
Maintenance Load Forecasting
‫اسبوعية‬ ‫توزيع‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫الفعلية‬ ‫األسبوعية‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫ساعات‬ ‫عدد‬ Actual weekly working hours 20 % ‫الطارئة‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫الساعات‬ ‫من‬ Emergency Maintenance % 80 ‫الوقائية‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫الساعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫والتصحيحية‬ Heavy PM & CM 80% Visual PM 20%
Evolution and Ranking of Maintenance Policies
Criteria Analysis
Decision Mapping CBM: Condition Base Monitoring OTF: Operate To failure SLU: Skill Level Upgrade DOM: Design Out M/C. FTM: Fixed Time Maintenance
Maintenance Planning Horizons 5 / 10 Year Maintenance Plan 1 Yr Plan 1 Mth Plan 1 Wk Plan Daily Plan Long Term Plan Short Term Plan Locked-in Schedule Supervisor Planner Shutdown Planner Maintenance Manager Management lead the way by agreeing what they want and how to get there. Then you and I do the work that is required. Operations Manager Strategic Tactical
Putting Maintenance Strategy into Action The strategy gets turned into plans, that if achieved, will deliver the operating goals. These plans become what we work on during the years and months ahead.
‫توجيه‬
36 Maintenance process
The work planning and Scheduling Process
‫في‬ ‫المعلومات‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ر‬‫إدا‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫الصيان‬ ‫ة‬ ‫مخطط‬ ‫سريان‬ ‫المعلومات‬ ‫للرقابة‬ ‫على‬ ‫المواد‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫إصدار‬ ‫على‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫م‬ ‫طلب‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫رقم‬ ‫اآللي‬ ‫الحاسب‬ ‫هل‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫موجودة‬ ‫إصدار‬ ‫تقرير‬ ‫عن‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫المردين‬ ‫و‬ ‫المواد‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫م‬ ‫تسليم‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫اء‬ ‫ر‬‫ش‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫استالم‬ ‫المستودعات‬ ‫اآللي‬ ‫الحاسب‬ ‫اء‬ ‫ر‬‫الش‬ ‫امر‬ ‫اصدار‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫عن‬ ‫معلومات‬ ‫الالزمة‬ ‫وكميتها‬ ‫استخدامها‬‫و‬ ( ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ) ‫التخزين‬ ‫رقم‬ ‫التخزين‬ ‫موقع‬ ‫الشراء‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫ومستوى‬ ‫االقتصادية‬ ‫األدنى‬ ‫التخزين‬ ‫لدى‬ ‫الشراء‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫يصدر‬ ‫المخزنة‬ ‫الكمية‬ ‫وصول‬ ‫للتخزين‬ ‫األدنى‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫نعم‬ ‫ال‬
decision/activity scheme
Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Benefits of Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Decreased Asset Downtime Increased Asset Life Minimized Sudden Breakdown Improved Workflow Increased Productivity Decreased Maintenance Expenses Better Coordination Enhanced Asset Performance
Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Do's and Don'ts • Choose the Right Maintenance Planner • Train Maintenance Planner • Keep Maintenance History • Check Equipment & Inventory Availability • Don't Ignore KPΙ • Don't Give Incomplete Information • Don't Take Small Feedbacks Do's of Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Don'ts of Maintenance Planning and Scheduling
Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Useful Tips Properly Train the Planner Make Changes Based on Feedback Ensure Job Plans are Clear and Concise Understand the Difference Between Planning & Scheduling Provide Feedback on Completed Tasks Choose a Good Maintenance Planner 01 02 03 04 05 06
Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Recognize the skills of the techs Protect the planner Focus on future work Component level-files Use planner judgment for time estimates Daily work is handled by the crew leader Job plans are needed for scheduling Scheduling and job priorities are important Schedule based on the highest skills available Schedule for every available work hour VS Planning Principles Scheduling Principles
Control Activities  Cost Control  Quality Control  Inventory Control  Work Control
Cost Types & Control
Quality Control
Inventory &Work Control
The Purpose of Business Profit ($) = Revenue - Total Costs Total Costs ($) = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs EBITDA = Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization – it represents the operating profit. I want to show you the disaster that plant and equipment failures are to a business.
Effects of Maintenance Costs Profit ($) = Revenue - Total Costs Total Costs ($) = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs $ Output / Time EBITDA Profit Variable Cost Fixed Cost Normal Business Operations Revenue Total Cost Fixed Maintenance Costs Variable Maintenance Costs Preventive and Predictive Maintenance Repairs – variable cost that eats profit Maintenance is cheap, … it’s repairs that are expensive!
Impact of Defects and Failures Total Costs ($) = Productive Fixed Costs ($) + Productive Variable Costs ($) + Costs of Loss ($) Cost of Loss ($/Yr) = Frequency of Loss Occurrence (/Yr) x Cost of Loss Occurrence ($) Effects on Costs and Profit of a Failure Incident $ Output / Time Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost t1 t2 Profits forever lost Increased and Wasted Variable Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Added Cost Impact of a Failure Incident Variable Cost Stock-out Once the equipment fails, new costs and losses start appearing.
Maintenance Costs Maintenance Commitment Cost PM Cost Total Maintenance Cost Breakdown Cost Optimal
Defect and Failure True (DAFT) Costs go Company-wide www.BIN95.com It’s unbelievable how much money is wasted all over the business with each failure. The one I like is the time lost matching invoices against purchase orders that did not need to be raised, but for the failure! The ‘lost life value’ of parts is expensive too.
Whenever I’ve calculated the DAFT Costs they came out between 7 and 15 times the repair cost. I use 10 times as a ‘rule of thumb’. Failure Costs Surge thru the Company Labour Product Sales Services Capital Equipment Consequence Waste Materials Administration Equipment Failure Cost Surge Curtailed Life Every department in the business gets hit from the ‘failure cost surge’.
And clearly, repeated plant and equipment failures and stoppages totally destroy the profitability of an operation. $ Output / Time Effects on Profitability of Repeated Failure Incidents t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 Profits forever lost Accumulated Wasted Variable, Fixed and Failure Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost If there are lots of failures, you end up running around like headless chooks, losing money faster and faster. It makes me laugh when I see this happening in a company. Everyone is busy, but there little profit, … it’s all lost in the ‘failure cost surges’.
Fortunately Ted, we can do something about it. There are two choices – get very good at fixing failures fast, or, don’t have failures in the first place - ZERO DEFECTS is the way to go. Benefits of Reducing Operating Risk $ Output / Time Effects on Profitability of Reducing Consequence Only t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 Fewer profits lost, but ‘fire-fighting’ is high Accumulated Wasted Variable and Failure Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Variable Cost Fixed Cost Total Cost $ Output / Time Effects on Profit of Reducing Chance Only t1 t2 Fewer Profits Lost Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost Risk ($/yr) = Frequency (/yr) x Consequence ($)
Implications of DAFT Costs on Maintenance Chance Of Failure in Time Period DAFT Cost per Event $1K $10K $100K $1,000K $10,000K 0% 100% $0.1K $1K $10K $100K $1,000K Repair Cost per Event Accept Never Accept 50% Do the DAFT Cost spreadsheets for each item of plant If each failure costs your business $7,000 – $15,000 for every $1,000 of repair cost … what risk is the business willing to carry? How often will a failure event be accepted?
Acceptable Equipment Item Failure Domain DAFT Cost per Failure Event $1K $10K $100K $1,000K $10,000K $0.1K $1K $10K $100K $1,000K Repair Cost per Failure Event Outside the Volume Never Accept Failure 1 2 3 4 Limit of $10,000/Period What is your tolerance for problems on a piece of equipment? Inside this Volume Accept Failure Chance Of Failure in Time Period 100% 50% 10%
How Maintenance Planning & Scheduling Help to Reduce Unit Cost of Production The ‘Hidden Factory’ Maintenance and Production unearth the ‘hidden factory’ when they work correctly, accurately, safely, right first time. Production Throughput Rate 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 >100 >250 >500 >750 >1000 >1250 >1500 >1750 >2000 >2250 >2500 Units per Hour Hours Waste is any time not spent changing the shape of the product. Design Capacity
When Operating Costs are Committed Once a plant is designed and built there is very little that can be done to reduce operating costs because they are substantially fixed by the plant’s design. If you want low operating costs, this chart makes it clear that they are designed into the plant and equipment during feasibility, design and construction.
Maximising Life Cycle Profits Idea Creation Approval Detail Design Procurement Construction Commissioning Decommissioning Equipment Life Cycle (say 20 years) ~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 17 years) ~ 5% Preliminary Design Feasibility Operation Disposal The Project Phase is the time to control the future costs of failure All we can do during the operating phase is run and care for the equipment as it was designed to be. If the design requires expensive parts, and/or lots of downtime for maintenance and repairs, then the design is the problem, not the maintenance.
Life Cycle Risk Management Strategy Optimised Operating Profit Method Design Drawings Assume Equipment Failure DAFT Costs Spreadsheet Applicable O & M Strategies Redesign with FMEA; Revise O & M Strategies, Revise Project Strategies Projected R & M Costs Busine$$ Ri$k Ba$ed Equipment Criticality Applicable Project Strategies Frequency Achievable? N Y Quality Procedures Precision Maint Predictive Maint Preventive Maint RCFA Maint Planning Etc. FMEA/RCM HAZOP Precision Standards Precision Instaln Reliability Eng Etc. Failure Cost Acceptable? N Y Profit Optimisation Loop It is possible to make great operating cost savings during the design, if the designers reduce the operating risks that their choices cause the business.
www.BIN95.com Consequence $ Frequency No/yr Risk $/yr = Consequence$ x No of Failures/yr x Chance of Failure Risk can be Measured The ‘A’ curve is the same risk throughout A A A Too many small failures is just as bad as a catastrophe Too many small failures is just as bad as a catastrophe
www.BIN95.com Grading Risk based on Chance & Consequence Log of Consequence $ Log of Frequency No/yr Log Risk = Log Consequence x Log Frequency 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1 10 100 1,000 Risk = Consequence x Frequency
www.BIN95.com What Risk Means Log Consequence $ Log Frequency No/yr Hazard Consequences All threat barriers in place can have ‘holes’ in them. What is the likely cause of the ‘holes’ in the barriers ? I used to wonder why we were so lucky that more things didn’t go wrong! Log-log plot In reality, extreme risk doesn't arise often. What is the chance the ‘holes’ line-up at the same time?
Risk – Reduce Chance or Reduce Consequence? Risk = Chance x Consequence  Engineering and Maintenance Standards  Failure Design-out - Corrective Maintenance  Failure Mode Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA)  Statistical Process Control  Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP)  Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA)  Precision Maintenance  Hazard Identification (HAZID)  Training and Up-skilling  Quality Management Systems  Planning and Scheduling  Continuous Improvement  Supply Chain Management  Accuracy Controlled Enterprise SOPs (ACE 3T)  Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR)  Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC)  Oversize/De-rate Equipment  Reliability Engineering  Preventative Maintenance  Predictive Maintenance  Total Productive Maintenance (TPM)  Non-Destructive Testing  Vibration Analysis  Oil Analysis  Thermography  Motor Current Analysis  Prognostic Analysis  Emergency Management  Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS)  Key Performance Indicators (KPI)  Risk Based Inspection (RBI)  Operator Watch-keeping  Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing)  Logistics, stores and warehouses  Maintenance Engineering Chance Reduction Strategies Consequence Reduction Strategies Done to reduce the chance of failure Done to reduce the cost of failure
The Application of Risk Based Principles to Maintenance Hazard Identification identifies failure modes Risk Assessment establishes the probability and consequence of failure Risk Evaluation determines the acceptability of failure to safety, process etc Risk Control reduces risk through effective maintenance practices Monitoring Verifies initial assumptions and maintenance effectiveness Maintenance Planning belongs here … delivering risk management As a Maintenance Planner your job is to deliver the risk control strategies used in your operation. And then check if they actually do lift the plant reliability.
Equipment Criticality Equipment Criticality = Operating Risk = Failure Frequency (/yr) x DAFT Cost Consequence ($) Equipment Criticality is a business risk rating indicator. We need to know where to put our efforts for the greatest payback. The 80/20 rule applies to maintenance as well – which 20% of equipment maintenance gives 80% of the benefits. Once you have order of priority, you know what to focus on.
Match Maint Type to Equipment Criticality Risk Based Method Breakdown Based Maintenance Hazardous, Safety, Environmental dangers from process Breakdown, stops production, affects quality Breakdown, stops production, affects quality Affects downstream plant Affects downstream plant Can be fixed on-line Can be fixed on-line S C B A Equipment Time Based Maintenance Condition Based Maintenance S = Safety ; A,B,C = Maintenance Type Once you decide the criticality, you match the type of maintenance to it by using this risk based chart, or the next one, which uses the inherent reliability of the item as the criteria.
Choosing of Maintenance Type - Simplified RCM Method Consequence of failure acceptable ? Life reasonably predictable ? Condition Monitoring practical ? Condition Monitoring economic ? Condition based maintenance Design out cause of failure practical? Designing out cause of failure economical ? Time based maintenance Breakdown maintenance Plant Change yes yes yes yes yes no no no no no yes no Be very, very wary of choosing to do Breakdown Maintenance if you have not done the full DAFT Costing. My experience is that Breakdown Maintenance costs a company 7 – 15 times the repair cost. A $10,000 repair really costs the business between $70,000 to $150,000. You can buy a lot of maintenance for that! RCM = Reliability Centred Maintenance
Planning is a Process, and needs Control Remember this …? One fails … all fails! One poor … all poor! Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 … 1 1 1 n In a series process we must be precise because there is no redundancy. In a series work process the only way to do a 100% reliable job is to make sure every task in it is done 100% reliably. Because planning is a series process, the task variability problem needs a work system that standardizes what to do, and how to do it. This makes planning repeatable and reliable. The ‘planning system’ comprises the accumulated planning procedures. Scope Standards Parts Procedures Handover Plan the Job Rplan = R1 x R2 x R3 x R4 x R5 Each task 95% reliable 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.77 Each task 90% reliable 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.59 Planning is a series process.
Track Planning Performance & Benefits • Percent of Plan Followed During the Job • Work Orders With Complete Work Packs • Improved Equipment Reliability • Improved Plant Availability • Maintenance Backlog by Type • Preventive Maintenance Complete On-Time You’ll want to know how well you are going. You can work that out in three ways. First, by seeing how closely the plan is followed. If it is done with 100% compliance and the final condition monitoring check is within standard, you can say the plan was perfect. Second, you can see what effect the work had on the plant’s operation. Third, is by seeing if maintenance productivity improves. If all three trend positively, you are on-track. Plan Compliance Plant Performance Maintenance Performance
Specify the Workmanship Standards • Standardised Work • Setting the Standards for a Job • Identifying Necessary Skills for a Job • Use 3T Failure Preventing Job Procedures “We must protect the plant and equipment from good intentioned people who don’t know what they are doing.” People need to know what is expected from them. They need to know what excellent work is. How else can they ever get a sense of pride in doing a job well?
Shutdown Performance Recipe Practices Outcome s Good Management Processes Integration Small size Front-end loading Availability Schedule Safety Cost Best Practices
Trend to Monitor KPIs Work Orders in Backlog 0 50 100 150 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Weeks in Backlog Work orders Work Orders 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% A u g - 0 3 S e p - 0 3 O c t - 0 3 N o v - 0 3 D e c - 0 3 J a n - 0 4 F e b - 0 4 M a r - 0 4 A p r - 0 4 M a y - 0 4 J u n - 0 4 J u l - 0 4 A u g - 0 4 S e p - 0 4 O c t - 0 4 N o v - 0 4 BREAKDOWN BREAKDOWN TARGET CORRECTIVE PREVENTATIVE PROJECT REWORK PREDICTIVE Target Line Trend Line Trending KPIs turns measurement into monitoring Individual KPI
Showing Progress Stacked Bar Chart with Red, Blue, Green quickly shows both progress and work outstanding still to complete
Developing the Schedule All Work Backlog by category Prelim Schedule for next week, or longer Schedule 2 Fortnight ahead, or longer Schedule 3 Future, including shuts Fixed for the Week PMs PdMs Corrective Projects Reliability Improvements Work Orders ready to go with parts in store and resource ready Planning Production Requests Daily Schedule M E E T I N G BREAKDOWNS ! WARNING ! You must stop this happening to low priority work, else you will have a breakdown! Screen for Validity and Cost
Role of the Supervisor: Manage Manpower & Resources to Schedule The Maintenance Supervisor is responsible to meet the plan Planner Supervisor Tradesman Scheduler Cost Quality Time Plan Do Check Act Monitor & Control Progress Plan & Prepare Resources
The relation between some terms for the availability performance
THEORETICAL BACKGROUND: Fault Finding in the Total Picture
MEAN TIME TO FAILURE [MMTF] Where f(t) is the failure probability density function
MEAN TIME TO REPAIR [MTTR]
Formulas for Availability Performance Ai =Inherent Avail ability (e.g. an availability only depending upon the technical system.) Aa = Achieved Availability (e.g. an availability depending upon both the technical system and the maintenance organization.) Ao = Operational Availability MTTM = Mean Time To Maintenance (Maintenance = preventive and corrective maintenance actions) M = Mean Maintenance Time (Time for preventive and corrective maintenance actions)
Mean Time Between Failure, MTBF MDT (Mean Down Time) and MTTF (Mean Time To Failure).
Percentage of Breakdowns Hours = Breakdown Hours / Production Hours x 100 Availability = M a i n t e n a n c e H o u r s / Available Production Hours x 100 where: Breakdown Hours: the hours spent for repairing breakdowns Production Hours: the net production hours where: Maintenance Hours: the hours spent for repairing breakdowns and executing preventive maintenance programs Available Production Hours: the total production hours available except weekends (for example the available production hours in a week are: 24 hours x 5 days=120 hours)
Reliability Properties for Systems • Series Systems Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 • Parallel Systems Rsystem= 1-[(1- R1)x(1- R2)x(1-R3)] 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 n R = 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.9025 R = 1 – [(1 - 0.6) x (1 - 0.6)] = 0.84 The mathematics can be difficult. But you need to know that such mathematics exists and be able to use the principles to optimise maintenance.
Reliability Properties for Series Systems Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 1 1 1 n Properties of Series Systems 1. The reliability of a series system can be no higher than the least reliable component. 2. If ‘k’ more items are added into a series system of items (say 1 added to a system of 2, each with R = 0.9) the probability of failure of all items must fall an equal proportion (33%), to maintain the original system reliability. (0.9 x 0.9 = 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.93 = 0.81) 3. A small rise in reliability of all items (say R of the three items rises 0.93 to 0.95, 2.2% improvement) causes a larger rise in system reliability (from 0.81 to 0.86, 5%). • Implications for Equipment made of Series Systems 1 System-wide improvements lift reliability higher than local improvements. This is why SOP’s, training and up-skilling pay-off. 2 Improve the least reliable parts of the least reliable equipment first. 3 Carry spares for series systems and keep the reliability of the spares high. 4 Standardise components so fewer spares are needed. 5 Removing failure modes lifts system reliability. This is why Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) pay off. 6 Provide pseudo-parallel equipment by providing tie-in locations for emergency equipment . 7 Simplify, simplify, simplify – fewer components means higher reliability.
Reliability Properties for Parallel Systems 1 1 1 n Rsystem= 1-[(1- R1)x(1- R2)x(1-R3)] Properties of Parallel Systems 1. The more number of components in parallel the higher the system reliability. 2. The reliability of the parallel arrangement is higher than the reliability of the most reliable component. m m m m m m m m Which arrangement is more reliable if m = 0.9? • Implications of Parallel Systems for Equipment 1 Use parallel arrangements when the risk of failure has high DAFT Cost consequences. 2 Consider providing various paths for product to take in production plants with in-series equipment. 3 Build redundancy into your systems so there is more than one way to do a thing.
Failure Prediction Mathematics – Weibull Reliability of Parts and Components An increasing failure rate >1 suggests "wear out" - parts are more likely to fail as time goes on. Hence change parts as part of a PM on a time basis. The Maintenance Zones of Component Life Rate of Failing Infant Mortality Constant Likelihood of Failure End of Life A constant failure rate ~ 1 suggests that items are failing from random events. Hence cannot predict when a particular part will fail so use condition monitoring to check for failure mechanism. A decreasing failure rate < 1 would suggest ‘infant mortality’. That is, defective items fail early and the failure rate decreases over time as they fall out of the population. Hence need high quality control and accuracy in manufacture and assembly or ‘burn-in’ on purpose. www.BIN95.com Mr Weibull (say Vaybull) discovered the mathematics to model the life of parts. It uses historic failure data from your CMMS to estimate what life a part has in your operation. Time – Age of Part
Equipment Reliability Strategies Time – Age of Equipment Strategies for the Infant Mortality Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing How to Drive the Chance Curve Down? How to Pull the Position of the Curve Lower? How to Push the Time of the Curve Back? Time – Age of Equipment Strategies for the Random Failure Maintenance Zone How to Drive the Position of the Curve Lower? Rate of Failing Time – Age of Equipment Strategies for the Wear-Out Failure Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing How to Push the Start of the Rising Curve Back? How to Lower the Curve Steepness? With the new understanding of risk and chance from reliability engineering we now understand which operating and maintenance practices to use to reduce the likelihood of failure happening at every stage of an equipment’s life cycle Quality Control, Training, Precision Assembly PM, PdM, Precision Operation Replace Equipment, Add more components to renewal PM
6 Mechanical Equipment Care Standards to Set, Use and Keep Using Vibration: Balancing: Alignment: Fastener Torque: Deformation: Lubricant Cleanliness: These are the BIG 6 that maintenance can control.
Using Condition Monitoring to Optimise Availability Condition monitoring is not only a tool for checking the equipment condition. It is equally as valid to use it to improve the machine conditions.
This is a good overview of what we need to do with our plant and equipment throughout its life cycle. If we want high reliability in operation we need to have high reliability at every stage of a machine’s life. A Roadmap for Reliability Improvement
Maintenance Management Best Practice – Profit-Focused, Ultra-High Reliability Precision Operating Risk Life Cycle Profit Optimisation Loop Precision Domain (with ACE 3Ts) Assemble & use a plan for operation, maintenance & improvement of units Assemble & use a plan for continually removing defects from processes Business Value Contribution Z E R O F A I L U R E
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫يوضح‬ ‫المنحنى‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫المراحل‬ ‫هي‬ : 1 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫التسخين‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يقل‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫بسرعة‬ ‫وبتوزيع‬ ‫خاص‬ 2 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫المفيد‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ثابتا‬ ‫ويمثل‬ ‫فشال‬ ‫عشوائيا‬ ‫تماما‬ ‫و‬ ‫بتوزيع‬ ‫أسي‬ ‫سالب‬ 3 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫االهتراء‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يزداد‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ويمثل‬ ‫فشال‬ ‫بتوزيع‬ ‫معتدل‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) 1 ‫التسخين‬ ‫فترة‬ Running in 2 ‫المفيد‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫فترة‬ Useful life 3 ‫االهتراء‬ ‫فترة‬ Wear-out ‫تعريف‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫تمثيل‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫لمعدة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫جزء‬ ‫بمنحنى‬ ‫على‬ ‫شكل‬ ‫حوض‬ Bath-TUb ‫يمر‬ ‫بثالث‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫كما‬ ‫في‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫التالي‬ :
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫خلفية‬ ‫رياضية‬ ‫لقياس‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫تحسب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫من‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫وتوزيعاتها‬ ‫التكرارية‬ ‫لألعطال‬ ‫الممكن‬ ‫حدوثها‬ ‫خ‬ ‫الل‬ ‫فترة‬ ‫زمنية‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫من‬ ‫نوع‬ ‫معين‬ ‫لقطعة‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫والمعدالت‬ ‫األساسية‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫التي‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫التعر‬ ‫ف‬ ‫عليها‬ ‫هي‬ : 2 - ‫طريقة‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Probability density function of failure ) ( 1 t f  2 - ‫التوزيع‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫لدالة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Cumulative distribution function of failure    t dt t f t F 0 ) ( ) ( 2 3 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ( ‫البقاء‬ ) : ‫احتمال‬ ‫بقاء‬ ‫العنصر‬ ‫دون‬ ‫عطل‬ Reliability function (survival) ) ( 1 ) ( 3 t F t R    4 - ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ( ‫اللحمي‬ ) ‫للفشل‬ ( ‫معدل‬ ‫الخطر‬ ) Age- specific (instantaneous) failure {Hazard rate) ) ( 1 ) ( ) ( 4 t F t f t Z    5 - ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫الفشل‬ Mean time to failure     o dt t tf MTTF ) ( 5
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫طريقة‬ ‫مبسطة‬ ‫لحساب‬ ‫الدوال‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Probability density function of failure   ) ( 1 t f ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 2 - ‫التوزيع‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫لدالة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Cumulative distribution function of failure   ) ( 2 t F ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫المتراكمة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 3 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ( ‫البقاء‬ ) : ‫احتمال‬ ‫بقاء‬ ‫العنصر‬ ‫دون‬ ‫عطل‬ Reliability function (survival) ) ( 1 ) ( 3 t F t R    ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 4 - ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ( ‫اللحمي‬ ) ‫للفشل‬ ( ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫أو‬ ‫الخطر‬ ) Age-specific (instantaneous) failure {Hazard rate or Failure rate) ) ( 1 ) ( ) ( 4 t F t f t Z    ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t)
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫تم‬ ‫تركيب‬ ( 150 ) ‫وحدة‬ ‫في‬ ‫قسم‬ ‫وقد‬ ‫تم‬ ‫جمع‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫حول‬ ‫فش‬ ‫لها‬ ‫خالل‬ ( 30 ) ‫فترة‬ ‫زمنية‬ ‫كم‬ ‫مبين‬ ‫في‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫المرفق‬ . ‫احسب‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الفشل‬ 2 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 3 - ‫معدل‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫للفشل‬ ‫وارسم‬ ‫النتائ‬ ‫ج‬ . ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ 0 - 1 150 1 - 2 124 2 - 3 107 3 - 4 95 4 - 5 87 5 - 6 80 6 - 7 75 7 - 8 70 8 - 9 66 9 - 10 62 10 - 11 59 11 - 12 56 12 - 13 53 13 - 14 50 14 - 15 47 ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ 15 - 16 44 16 - 17 42 17 - 18 40 18 - 19 38 19 - 20 36 20 - 21 34 21 - 22 32 22 - 23 29 23 - 24 26 24 - 25 24 25 - 26 22 26 - 27 20 27 - 28 17 28 - 29 15 29 - 30 13
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ A B 0 - 1 150 1 - 2 124 2 - 3 107 3 - 4 95 4 - 5 87 5 - 6 80 6 - 7 75 7 - 8 70 8 - 9 66 9 - 10 62 10 - 11 59 11 - 12 56 12 - 13 53 13 - 14 50 14 - 15 47 ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫نهاية‬ C D 26 124 17 107 12 95 8 87 7 80 5 75 5 70 4 66 4 62 3 59 3 56 3 53 3 50 3 47 3 44 ‫الفش‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫ل‬ f(t) % ‫الفشل‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫التراكمي‬ F % ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ R % ‫الفشل‬ ‫معدل‬ Z(t) % f=(C/B0) F=(f) R=100-F Z=C/B 17.3 17.3 82.7 17.3 11.4 28.7 71.3 13.7 8.0 36.7 63.3 11.2 5.3 42.0 58.0 8.4 4.7 46.7 53.3 8.0 3.3 50.0 50.0 6.3 3.3 53.3 46.7 6.7 2.7 56.0 44.0 5.7 2.7 58.7 41.3 6.1 2.0 60.7 39.3 4.8 2.0 62.7 37.3 5.1 2.0 64.7 35.3 5.4 2.0 66.7 33.3 5.7 2.0 68.7 31.3 6.0 2.0 70.7 29.3 6.4
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫دالة‬ f(t) 30 ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫التوزيع‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫منحنى‬ F(t) 30
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫منحنى‬ R(t) 30 ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫معدل‬ ( ‫المحدد‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫للفشل‬ ) Z 30
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مالحظة‬ : 1 - ‫يمكن‬ ‫كتابة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫المعادالت‬ ‫كالتالى‬ :         i i i i i i i t t Q Q Q Z       1 1 1 , 1 ‫حيث‬ Qi = ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫التي‬ ‫بدأ‬ ‫في‬ ‫اختيارها‬ ‫في‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الفترة‬ Q i+1 = ‫َدد‬‫ع‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫في‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الفترة‬ ti = ‫زمن‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بدايتها‬ t i+1 = ‫زمن‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الفترة‬   i i i dt dQ Q 1    dt dt dQ     ‫وعند‬ ‫تصغير‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫الى‬ ‫ماال‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫فان‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫يصبح‬ :   t e Q Q R     0 2 - ‫يتم‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫كالتالي‬ :    1  MTBF 3 - ‫يحسب‬ ‫متوسط‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫ما‬ ‫بين‬ ‫االخفاق‬
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مالحظة‬ : ‫يمكن‬ ‫وصف‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫اإلصالح‬ ( ‫التجديد‬ ) ‫التي‬ ‫تتم‬ ‫خالل‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫الجزء‬ ‫بمنحنى‬ ‫الحوض‬ ( ‫منحنى‬ ‫الخطر‬ ) ‫كالتالي‬ : - ‫الفشل‬ ( 1 ) ‫الفشل‬ ( 2 ) ‫الفشل‬ ( n-1 ) ‫الفشل‬ ( n ) t1 t2 t n-1 t n T 1 T 2 TN ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫تجدي‬ ‫بدون‬ ‫المنحنى‬ ‫د‬ ‫بتجديد‬ ‫المنحنى‬
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫تعرف‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫بمقدار‬ ‫االستعداد‬ ‫واحتمالية‬ ‫اتاحتها‬ ‫للعمل‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫الطلب؛‬ ‫ومفهو‬ ‫م‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫يجمع‬ ‫ما‬ ‫بين‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫وقابلية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يعبر‬ ‫عنها‬ ‫بالتالي‬ : 3 - ‫اإلتاحة‬ ِ Availability MTTR MTBF MTBF A   ‫حيث‬ MTBF = ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫بين‬ ‫األعطال‬ ( ‫الفشل‬ ) MTTR = ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫لإلصالح‬ ‫وعليه‬ ‫تعتمد‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫على‬ ‫مقدار‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫الجزء‬ ‫للعمل‬ , ‫ومقدار‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫الم‬ ‫طلوب‬ ‫للقيام‬ ‫باإلصالح‬ ‫وهي‬ ‫تتأثر‬ ‫بالتالي‬ :  ‫مقدار‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫لقطع‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫ويحسب‬ ‫من‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫االستيداع‬ .  ‫عامل‬ ‫االستخدام‬ = { ‫زمن‬ ‫التشغيل‬ (t1) [/ ‫زمن‬ ‫التشغيل‬ (t1) + ‫زمن‬ ‫الصيانة‬ (t2) + ‫زمن‬ ‫توقف‬ (t3) ] }  ‫مقدار‬ ‫إتاحة‬ ‫افراد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ويحسب‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫الحتمال‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫العمالة‬ ‫المتخصصة‬ .
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 4 - ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫تنقسم‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫نوعين‬ : 1 ( ‫نظم‬ ‫متتالية‬ : R1 R2 ‫في‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الحالة‬ ‫يفشل‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫لفشل‬ ‫إحدى‬ ‫الوحدات‬ , ‫وتكون‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفعالة‬ ‫للنظام‬ ‫هي‬ : n R R R R     ....... 2 1 ‫وعليه‬ ‫فان‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫أقل‬ ‫من‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫كل‬ ‫وحدة‬ . ‫مثال‬ : R1= 0.95 , R2= 0.9  R= 0.855 ‫وبفرض‬ ‫معادلة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ = ‫تصبح‬ ‫المعادلة‬ t e R     t n e R    * ..... * * 2 1  
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫وعليه‬ ‫فان‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫أكبر‬ ‫من‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫كل‬ ‫وحدة‬ . ‫مثال‬ : R1= 0.95 , R2= 0.9  R= 0.995 2 ( ‫نظم‬ ‫متوازية‬ : ‫في‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الحالة‬ ‫يؤدي‬ ‫فشل‬ ‫إحدى‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫انخفاض‬ ‫أداء‬ ‫النظام‬ , ‫وتكون‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفعال‬ ‫ة‬ ‫للنظام‬ ‫هي‬ :       n R R R R         1 ....... 1 1 1 2 1 R2 R1 ‫وبفرض‬ ‫معادلة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ = ‫تصبح‬ ‫المعادلة‬ t e R           t t t n e e e R            1 ....... 1 1 1 2 1
‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫لنظام‬ ‫مكون‬ ‫من‬ ‫توالي‬ ‫وتوازي‬ : ‫وتصبح‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظ‬ ‫ام‬             4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1                                 e e e R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R RS R1 R2 R3 R4 R1 X R2 R3 X R4 ‫مثال‬ ‫لنظام‬ ‫متراكب‬ : R2 R3 R2 R4 R7 R7 R7 R7 R6 R1 R5 R5 R5 R5               2 2 7 6 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 R R R R R R R RS             
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 1 - ‫مفهوم‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ Risk Based Maintenance ‫هي‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫مبنية‬ ‫عل‬ ‫تقدير‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫توقعات‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ومن‬ ‫ثم‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫متطلبات‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫منها‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫بالصيانة‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫جدول‬ ‫ز‬ ‫مني‬ ‫محدد‬ ‫وذلك‬ ‫بتحديد‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫التفتيش‬ ‫واإلحالل‬ ‫وتاريخ‬ ‫ت‬ ‫شغيل‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫وكيفية‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫قطع‬ ‫الغ‬ ‫يار‬ ‫من‬ ‫بدال‬ ‫وقد‬ ‫استخدمت‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الطريقة‬ ‫من‬ ‫أوائل‬ ‫الستينات‬ ‫في‬ ‫مجال‬ ‫التوربينات‬ ‫الطائرات‬ ‫ومحطات‬ ‫توليد‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫النووية‬ ‫والتوربينات‬ ‫البخارية‬
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 2 - ‫أهداف‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬  ‫التحديد‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫للمخاطرة‬ ‫المرتبطة‬ ‫باألعطال‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫واألنظمة‬ .  ‫التحديد‬ ‫لموارد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫مبنية‬ ‫على‬ ‫أولويات‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫المحددة‬ ‫كميا‬ 3 - ‫تعريف‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ Risk ; Defined 1 - ‫المخاطرة‬ = ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ × ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫ذلك‬ 2 - ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ = ( ‫فشل‬ ‫نمط‬ ‫أحد‬ ‫المكونات‬ ‫في‬ ‫النظام‬ ) / ( ‫مجموع‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫المكون‬ ‫معرفا‬ ‫بالزمن‬ ‫أو‬ ‫بفترة‬ ‫الحدث‬ ) 3 - ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬ = ‫تكلفة‬ ‫اإلصالح‬ + ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفاقد‬ ( ‫تكل‬ ‫فة‬ ‫التوقف‬ ) + ‫تكلفة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫اكتمال‬ ‫الصيانة‬
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 4 - ‫كيفية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫كميا‬  ‫جمع‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نمط‬ ‫فشل‬ ‫ومعدالته‬ ‫لمكونات‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫للبيانات‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫لمكونات‬ ‫مماثلة‬ ‫في‬ ‫تطبيقات‬ ‫مماثلة‬ .  ‫تحليل‬ ‫وصفي‬ ‫لتوجهات‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫وأثارها‬ ‫وذلك‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫الجهد‬ ‫في‬ ‫تحدي‬ ‫د‬ ‫كمي‬ ‫للمخاطرة‬ . 5 - ‫الخطوات‬ ‫االرشادية‬ ‫لتحديد‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫أعطت‬ ‫جمعية‬ ‫المهندسين‬ ‫الميكانيكيين‬ ‫األمريكية‬ ASME ‫خطوات‬ ‫ارشادية‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫ابرازها‬ ‫في‬ ‫التالي‬ : (1 ‫تعريف‬ ‫النظام‬ (2 ‫تقييم‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫وصفيا‬ ‫وترتيب‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫للنظا‬ ‫م‬ (3 ‫تطوير‬ ‫برنامج‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫المطلوب‬ (4 ‫دراسة‬ ‫األفضلية‬ ‫االقتصادية‬
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 1 - ‫تعريف‬ ‫النظام‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫النظام‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫األعطال‬ ( ‫نتائج‬ ‫المخاطر‬ )  ‫تحليل‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫والموثوقية‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫التكاليف‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬  ‫المطابقة‬ ‫لمجال‬ ‫التطبيق‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫األعطال‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫أنماط‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫وتأثيرها‬ ( ‫دراسة‬ ‫األنماط‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫القياسية‬ ‫والمعلومات‬ ‫األساسية‬ ) { ‫مثل‬ : ‫شروخ‬ – ‫كاللة‬ – ‫تشوهات‬ – ‫اهتزازات‬ - ... ‫وغيره‬ )  ‫تحليل‬ ‫شجرة‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫للمكونات‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫الحرجية‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫وترتيبها‬
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫االحتمالية‬  ‫إيجاد‬ ‫أنماط‬ ‫الفشل‬ : ‫حساب‬ ‫احتماالت‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫والموثوقية‬ ( ‫دراسة‬ ‫احتماالت‬ ‫ال‬ ‫عطل‬ ‫من‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫والخبرات‬ ‫المكتسبة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫العطل‬ ) ‫تحليل‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫اإلصالح‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫وتكاليف‬ ‫الهالك‬ ‫واإلحالل‬ )  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفقد‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫توقف‬ ‫المنظومة‬ ‫هن‬ ‫العمل‬ )  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفرصة‬ ‫المفقودة‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫اكتمال‬ ‫الصيانة‬ )
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 2 - ‫حساب‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫وترتيب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫من‬ ‫األعطال‬  ‫حساب‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لجميع‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫والمكونات‬ .  ‫ترتيب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫من‬ ‫األكثر‬ ‫خطورة‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫داخل‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫األنظمة‬ ‫الفرعية‬ ‫ولجميع‬ ‫األنظمة‬ ‫الفرعية‬ ‫داخل‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫الرئيسي‬ ) ‫المطابقة‬ ‫للتطبيق‬ ‫المحدد‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫صفات‬ ‫مجال‬ ‫التطبيق‬ ‫المؤثرة‬ ‫عل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ o ‫قابلية‬ ‫المراقبة‬ o ‫قابلية‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫التوقعية‬ o ‫سمات‬ ‫التصميم‬ o ‫تاريخ‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫السابق‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫عالقة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الصفات‬ ‫في‬ ‫رفع‬ ‫أو‬ ‫خفض‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫ونتائجها‬ .
‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 4 - ‫دراسة‬ ‫األفضلية‬ ‫االقتصادية‬  ‫استمرارية‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫بناءا‬ ‫على‬ ‫الخبرة‬  ‫تبرير‬ ‫تكاليف‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ونشاطات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫التوقعية‬  ‫تكاليف‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫قطع‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫والتخزين‬ 3 - ‫تطوير‬ ‫برنامج‬ ‫الصيانة‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫بناءا‬ ‫على‬ ‫أوليات‬ ‫المخاطر‬ .  ‫أخذ‬ ‫القرارات‬ ‫المتعلقة‬ ‫بالصيانة‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫األوليات‬ . ( ‫زيادة‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫مضخات‬ ‫ف‬ ‫ي‬ ‫وحدة‬ )

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دورة متقدمة في تخطيط الصيانة وجدولتها - الدكتور منذر القادري

  • 1.
    ‫منذر‬ ‫المهندس‬ ‫الدكتور‬ ‫القادري‬ ‫والتطوير‬‫للتدريب‬ ‫األوروبي‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫مركز‬ info@ebctraining.net ‫والتحكم‬ ‫والجدولة‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫تخطيط‬
  • 2.
    Maintenance Preventive M. “To Keep” CorrectiveM. “To Restore” A facility to an acceptable standard What is Maintenance?
  • 3.
    The 6 Purposesof Maintenance Risk Reduction Least Operating Costs Maintainer The job of maintenance is to provide reliable plant for least operating cost – we don’t just fix equipment, … we improve it!
  • 4.
    Understand How Machinesare Designed When they design machines, like this shaft rotating in two bearings, they keep the parts in place by making the gaps between them very small. The hair on your head is about 0.1 mm (0.004”) thick. On this 25 mm (1”) shaft, the gap between the metal surfaces can be as small as 0.01 mm (less then 0.0005”). That is 10 times thinner than the thickness of your hair. That is very little space for things to move in. If the parts get twisted and distorted then that clearance disappears and you have parts hitting each other. Any machine in that situation will quickly fail. 25 - 0.01 - 0.025 25 + 0.01 + 0.025 L1 L2 L3 L4 TIP: THE SECRET TO GREAT EQUIPMENT LIFE IS TO … KEEP PARTS WITHIN THEIR DESIGN STRESS ENVELOPE!
  • 5.
    Defect Creation &Failure Initiation
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Defect Elimination &Failure Prevention If you don’t want problems you need to prevent their cause. If you don’t want high maintenance you need to prevent the causes of that maintenance.
  • 8.
    Plant and EquipmentLife Cycle Profits come from this stage of the life cycle, and are maximised when the operating costs are minimised.
  • 9.
    Building for thePhysics of Failure Strength Of the Material Environment and Operating Stresses Operating Risk Management Design for Reliability and Low Operating/Maintenance Cost Failure Mode Effects Analysis Reliability Engineering Life Cycle Mgmt
  • 10.
    The Degradation Cycle SmoothRunning Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.) Operating Performance Failed Impending Failure Change in Performance is Detectable Do Maintenance & Condition Monitor Equipment Unusable Repair or Replace The Failure Degradation Sequence P-F Interval Condition Inspection Interval P F Most parts show evidence, or exhibit warning signs, of failing – they follow a sequence of gradual degrading. As the vast majority of parts degrade their condition changes. These changed conditions can be observed and the parts replaced before they fail. Some items, like electronic parts, can fail without warning. Situations of huge, sudden stress or overload can cause parts to immediately fail without warning. Replace before parts’ condition gets to functional failure point
  • 11.
    Failure Mode EffectsAnalysis (FMEA) Fundamentals • A failure is any unwanted or disappointing behaviour of a product. • A failure mode is the effect by which a failure is observed. Failure modes can be electrical (open or short circuit, stuck at high), physical (loss of speed, excessive noise), or functional (loss of power gain, communication loss, high error level). • Failure mechanism refers to the processes by which the failure modes are induced. It includes physical, mechanical, electrical, chemical, or other processes and their combinations. Knowledge of failure mechanism provides insight into the conditions that precipitate failures. • A failure site describes the physical location where the failure mechanism is observed to occur, and is often the location of the highest stresses and lowest strengths. www.BIN95.com We can foretell what parts are going to cause trouble by doing experiments, from conducting tests and by using past failure history of similar parts. If we can predict what will go wrong, and the conditions that will cause it to happen, we can design maintenance and operational loading strategies to give maximum part life.
  • 12.
    Failure Mode EffectsAnalysis Failure Failure Mode Failure Mechanism Failure Site Car does not start Starter Motor does not run Corroded relay contacts Main contact of starter relay Hard disk failure Computer has no access to hard disk Hard disk address is 11 instead of 12 Line 87 in the hard disk driver software Toy has faded colour Colour changes from red to pink Accumulation of high UV dose Red plastic leg Once this is known we put strategies and practices into place to 1) Design-out the failure, 2) prevent the failure, 3) prevent the conditions 4) monitor the failure mode 5) replace before failure
  • 13.
    What Makes aProductive Equipment Life? Robust, Suitable Design Built & Installed Correctly High Availability, High Capacity High Productivity, Low Operating Cost High Return On Investment Maintenance Planning and Scheduling add value here Operated Within Limits Maintain to Design Standard Continually Improved High Reliability Unit Cost = Cost Capacity When you make plant more reliable you work on the ‘capacity’ part of the Unit Cost equation. As a result you drive down the cost of your product because the plant is available to work at full capacity for longer. So you make more product in the same time for less cost.
  • 14.
    The Asset Management‘Journey’ Regress Reactive Planned Reliability Strategic Fix it after it breaks Fix it before it breaks Don’t just fix it, improve it Don’t just improve it, optimise it Predict Plan Schedule Coordinate Cost Focus Eliminate Defects Improve Precision Redesign Value Focus Alignment (shared vision) Integration (Supply, Operations, Marketing) Differentiation (System Performance) Alliances Performance Don’t fix it, delay the fix Urgency Overtime Large store Rewards: Motivator: Behaviour: Staged Decay Overtime No Surprises Competitive Best in Class Short Term Savings Heroes Competitive Advantage Meet Budget Breakdowns Avoid Failures Uptime Growth Survival Responding Org. Discipline Org. Learning Optimisation
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
    17 ‫الصيانة‬ ‫انواع‬ Maintenance Types ‫مخططة‬‫صيانة‬ ‫مخططة‬ ‫غير‬ ‫صيانة‬ Unplanned Maintenance ‫الصيانةاالسعافية‬ Breakdown Maintenance ‫التصحيحية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ (Corrective maintenance ) ‫الدورية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ Routine Maintenance ‫اآللة‬ ‫حالة‬ ‫على‬ ‫االعتماد‬ Condition Based Maintenance ‫التنبؤية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ Predictive Maintenance ‫هندسة‬ ‫الوثوقية‬ Reliability Engineering ‫الوقائية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ PM ‫العمل‬ ‫اثناء‬ ‫اعتيادية‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫التوق‬ ‫اثناء‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫ف‬ ‫نظافة‬ ‫فحص‬ ‫تزييت‬ ‫التالفة‬ ‫االجزاء‬ ‫فحص‬ ‫وتعديل‬ ‫ضبط‬ ‫االجزاء‬ ‫بعض‬ ‫تغيير‬ ‫االهتزازات‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫الزيوت‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫الحرارة‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫قياس‬ ‫قياس‬ ‫الضغط‬ ، ‫الصوت‬ ... Planned Maintenance Maintenance Type
  • 19.
    Today’s Best PracticeMaintenance Methodology (still misses the target!) CM = Condition Monitoring
  • 20.
    Maintenance Planning AndScheduling Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Phases Setup Define and Analyze the Situation Develop and Prepare for Delivery Implement Review Sustain
  • 21.
    Maintenance Strategy Implementation Breakdown Preventive Predictive 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Percentage of Maintenance Time by Strategy
  • 22.
    ‫خطوات‬ ‫اعداد‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫خطة‬ 8 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫قصيرة‬ .a ‫األعمال‬‫توزيع‬ .b ‫جانت‬ ‫جدول‬ ‫اعداد‬ .1 ‫قائمة‬ ‫اعداد‬ ‫المنشأة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصول‬ ‫بجميع‬ 2 . ‫تصنيف‬ ‫أل‬ ‫وتقسيمها‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫أو‬ ‫المنشأة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الموجود‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫كافة‬ ‫نممة‬ 3 . ‫تحديد‬ ‫األولويات‬ : ‫أهميتها‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫المعدات‬ ‫تصنيف‬ 4 . ‫ادراج‬ ‫المعدات‬ ‫بيانات‬ / ‫بطاقة‬ ‫أصل‬ ( / ‫رقم‬ ( ‫كود‬ ) ‫تاري‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫تصنيع‬ ‫تاريخ‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المسؤول‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫موقع‬ ، ‫المعدة‬ ‫وميفة‬ ، ‫المعدة‬ ‫اسم‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫بدء‬ ‫خ‬ ،‫المعدة‬ ‫حالة‬ ،‫باختصار‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫مواصفات‬ ‫االستهالكية‬ ‫المواد‬ ،‫الصيانة‬ ‫منفذ‬ ‫وفني‬ ‫المستبدلة‬ ‫والمواد‬ ‫والتواريخ‬ ‫باألعمال‬ ‫اعطالها‬ ‫سجل‬، ‫االستهالك‬ ، ). 5 . ‫الوقائية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ملف‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫مكون‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ .a ‫توفير‬ ‫المصنعة‬ ‫الشركة‬ ‫وتعليمات‬ ‫الكتالوجات‬ ‫المخططات‬ . .b ‫تحديد‬ ‫وأعمال‬ ‫الفحص‬ ‫قوائم‬ ‫وإجراءات‬ ‫وخطوات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫الصيانة‬ .c ‫ومواد‬ ‫التبديلية‬ ‫القطع‬ ‫قوائم‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ . .d ‫الصيانة‬ ‫دورية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ( ‫سنوي‬ ،‫سنوي‬ ‫نصف‬ ، ‫ربعي‬ ،‫شهري‬ ، ‫أسبوعي‬ ، ‫يومي‬ ) .e ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫مدة‬ ‫تحديد‬ ( ‫الساعات‬ ‫عدد‬ ) .f ‫تحديد‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫العمالة‬ .g ‫تحديد‬ ‫األدوات‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ألعمال‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫واألجهزة‬ .h ‫صيانة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫تكاليف‬ ‫تقدير‬ .i ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بطاقات‬ ‫اعداد‬ 6 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫طويلة‬ 7 . ‫اعداد‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫األجل‬ ‫متوسطة‬ .9 ‫االعتماد‬ ‫الميزانية‬ ‫و‬
  • 23.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫وإدارة‬ ‫األصول‬‫إدارة‬ ‫الممارسات‬ ‫أفضل‬
  • 24.
    ‫األصول‬ ‫نصنف‬ ‫كيف‬ ‫الفئة‬‫التفاصيل‬ ‫إنتاجية‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫تقديم‬ ‫في‬ ‫مباشرة‬ ‫ستخدم‬ُ‫ت‬ ‫التي‬ ‫األصول‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫تول‬ ‫توربينات‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫يد‬ ) . ‫داعمة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫العملية‬ ‫ن‬ّ‫ك‬‫تم‬ ‫التي‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫شبكات‬ ،‫المحطات‬ ‫تبريد‬ ‫أنممة‬ (IT ‫تحتية‬ ‫بنية‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫الطويل‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫الثابتة‬ ‫األصول‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫الم‬ ‫خزانات‬ ،‫الكهرباء‬ ‫نقل‬ ‫خطوط‬ ‫ياه‬ ) . ‫على‬ ‫تعتمد‬ ‫رئيسية‬ ‫معايير‬ ‫لعدة‬ ً‫ا‬‫وفق‬ ‫األصول‬ ‫تصنيف‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫أهميتها‬ ،‫وظيفتها‬ ،‫طبيعتها‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ، ‫المادية‬ ‫وقيمتها‬ .
  • 25.
    ‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫األهمية‬ ‫حسب‬‫التصنيف‬ ( ‫الحرجة‬ ) ‫المستوى‬ ‫المعايير‬ ‫أمثلة‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫تح‬ ‫أو‬ ‫بالكامل‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫تتوقف‬ ‫تعطلت‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫دث‬ ‫كبيرة‬ ‫أضرار‬ . - ‫استبدالها‬ ‫صعوبة‬ . ‫الج‬ ‫محوالت‬ ،‫الرئيسية‬ ‫التحلية‬ ‫محطات‬ ‫هد‬ ‫العالي‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫شبه‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫ولكن‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫من‬ ‫جزء‬ ‫على‬ ‫يؤثر‬ ‫تعطلها‬ ‫كامل‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫ليس‬ . ‫التوز‬ ‫كابالت‬ ،‫الفرعية‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫مضخات‬ ‫يع‬ ‫حرجة‬ ‫غير‬ ‫أصول‬ - ‫تأجيل‬ ‫مكن‬ُ‫ي‬‫و‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫يوقف‬ ‫ال‬ ‫تعطلها‬ ‫إصالحها‬ . ‫الخارجية‬ ‫اإلنارة‬ ‫أنممة‬ ،‫المكاتب‬ ‫أثاث‬
  • 26.
    ‫والصيانة‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫دورة‬‫حسب‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ‫الفئة‬ ‫الخصائص‬ ‫جديدة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫وقائية‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تحتاج‬ ،‫الضمان‬ ‫تحت‬ . ‫العمر‬ ‫متوسطة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫أداء‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫دورية‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تحتاج‬ . ‫قديمة‬ ‫أصول‬ ً‫ال‬‫استبدا‬ ‫أو‬ ‫مكثفة‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫تتطلب‬ ( ‫تحليل‬ ‫عبر‬ ‫حدد‬ُ‫ي‬ " ‫تكل‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫فة‬ )" .
  • 27.
    ‫المالية‬ ‫القيمة‬ ‫حسب‬‫التصنيف‬ • ‫القيمة‬ ‫عالية‬ ‫أصول‬ : ‫مرتفعة‬ ‫استبدالها‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ( ‫مثل‬ : ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫توليد‬ ‫محطات‬ ) . • ‫متوسطة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫القيمة‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫أنممة‬ ‫المركزي‬ ‫والتبريد‬ ‫التكييف‬ ( • ‫منخفضة‬ ‫أصول‬ ‫القيمة‬ ) ‫مثل‬ : ‫متوسطة‬ ‫ونسخ‬ ‫طباعة‬ ‫ألة‬ , ‫أدوات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫الروتينية‬ (
  • 28.
  • 29.
    ‫اسبوعية‬ ‫توزيع‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫الفعلية‬‫األسبوعية‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫ساعات‬ ‫عدد‬ Actual weekly working hours 20 % ‫الطارئة‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫الساعات‬ ‫من‬ Emergency Maintenance % 80 ‫الوقائية‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫الساعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫والتصحيحية‬ Heavy PM & CM 80% Visual PM 20%
  • 30.
    Evolution and Ranking ofMaintenance Policies
  • 31.
  • 32.
    Decision Mapping CBM: ConditionBase Monitoring OTF: Operate To failure SLU: Skill Level Upgrade DOM: Design Out M/C. FTM: Fixed Time Maintenance
  • 33.
    Maintenance Planning Horizons 5/ 10 Year Maintenance Plan 1 Yr Plan 1 Mth Plan 1 Wk Plan Daily Plan Long Term Plan Short Term Plan Locked-in Schedule Supervisor Planner Shutdown Planner Maintenance Manager Management lead the way by agreeing what they want and how to get there. Then you and I do the work that is required. Operations Manager Strategic Tactical
  • 34.
    Putting Maintenance Strategyinto Action The strategy gets turned into plans, that if achieved, will deliver the operating goals. These plans become what we work on during the years and months ahead.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
    The work planningand Scheduling Process
  • 38.
    ‫في‬ ‫المعلومات‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ر‬‫إدا‬‫نظام‬ ‫الصيان‬ ‫ة‬ ‫مخطط‬ ‫سريان‬ ‫المعلومات‬ ‫للرقابة‬ ‫على‬ ‫المواد‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫إصدار‬ ‫على‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫م‬ ‫طلب‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫رقم‬ ‫اآللي‬ ‫الحاسب‬ ‫هل‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫موجودة‬ ‫إصدار‬ ‫تقرير‬ ‫عن‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫المردين‬ ‫و‬ ‫المواد‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫م‬ ‫تسليم‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫اء‬ ‫ر‬‫ش‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫استالم‬ ‫المستودعات‬ ‫اآللي‬ ‫الحاسب‬ ‫اء‬ ‫ر‬‫الش‬ ‫امر‬ ‫اصدار‬ ‫اد‬‫و‬‫الم‬ ‫عن‬ ‫معلومات‬ ‫الالزمة‬ ‫وكميتها‬ ‫استخدامها‬‫و‬ ( ‫العمل‬ ‫أمر‬ ) ‫التخزين‬ ‫رقم‬ ‫التخزين‬ ‫موقع‬ ‫الشراء‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫ومستوى‬ ‫االقتصادية‬ ‫األدنى‬ ‫التخزين‬ ‫لدى‬ ‫الشراء‬ ‫أمر‬ ‫يصدر‬ ‫المخزنة‬ ‫الكمية‬ ‫وصول‬ ‫للتخزين‬ ‫األدنى‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫نعم‬ ‫ال‬
  • 39.
  • 40.
    Maintenance Planning And Scheduling Benefitsof Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Decreased Asset Downtime Increased Asset Life Minimized Sudden Breakdown Improved Workflow Increased Productivity Decreased Maintenance Expenses Better Coordination Enhanced Asset Performance
  • 41.
    Maintenance Planning AndScheduling Do's and Don'ts • Choose the Right Maintenance Planner • Train Maintenance Planner • Keep Maintenance History • Check Equipment & Inventory Availability • Don't Ignore KPΙ • Don't Give Incomplete Information • Don't Take Small Feedbacks Do's of Maintenance Planning and Scheduling Don'ts of Maintenance Planning and Scheduling
  • 42.
    Maintenance Planning AndScheduling Useful Tips Properly Train the Planner Make Changes Based on Feedback Ensure Job Plans are Clear and Concise Understand the Difference Between Planning & Scheduling Provide Feedback on Completed Tasks Choose a Good Maintenance Planner 01 02 03 04 05 06
  • 43.
    Maintenance Planning AndScheduling Recognize the skills of the techs Protect the planner Focus on future work Component level-files Use planner judgment for time estimates Daily work is handled by the crew leader Job plans are needed for scheduling Scheduling and job priorities are important Schedule based on the highest skills available Schedule for every available work hour VS Planning Principles Scheduling Principles
  • 44.
    Control Activities  CostControl  Quality Control  Inventory Control  Work Control
  • 45.
    Cost Types &Control
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
    The Purpose ofBusiness Profit ($) = Revenue - Total Costs Total Costs ($) = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs EBITDA = Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization – it represents the operating profit. I want to show you the disaster that plant and equipment failures are to a business.
  • 49.
    Effects of MaintenanceCosts Profit ($) = Revenue - Total Costs Total Costs ($) = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs $ Output / Time EBITDA Profit Variable Cost Fixed Cost Normal Business Operations Revenue Total Cost Fixed Maintenance Costs Variable Maintenance Costs Preventive and Predictive Maintenance Repairs – variable cost that eats profit Maintenance is cheap, … it’s repairs that are expensive!
  • 50.
    Impact of Defectsand Failures Total Costs ($) = Productive Fixed Costs ($) + Productive Variable Costs ($) + Costs of Loss ($) Cost of Loss ($/Yr) = Frequency of Loss Occurrence (/Yr) x Cost of Loss Occurrence ($) Effects on Costs and Profit of a Failure Incident $ Output / Time Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost t1 t2 Profits forever lost Increased and Wasted Variable Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Added Cost Impact of a Failure Incident Variable Cost Stock-out Once the equipment fails, new costs and losses start appearing.
  • 51.
    Maintenance Costs Maintenance Commitment Cost PM Cost TotalMaintenance Cost Breakdown Cost Optimal
  • 52.
    Defect and FailureTrue (DAFT) Costs go Company-wide www.BIN95.com It’s unbelievable how much money is wasted all over the business with each failure. The one I like is the time lost matching invoices against purchase orders that did not need to be raised, but for the failure! The ‘lost life value’ of parts is expensive too.
  • 53.
    Whenever I’ve calculatedthe DAFT Costs they came out between 7 and 15 times the repair cost. I use 10 times as a ‘rule of thumb’. Failure Costs Surge thru the Company Labour Product Sales Services Capital Equipment Consequence Waste Materials Administration Equipment Failure Cost Surge Curtailed Life Every department in the business gets hit from the ‘failure cost surge’.
  • 54.
    And clearly, repeatedplant and equipment failures and stoppages totally destroy the profitability of an operation. $ Output / Time Effects on Profitability of Repeated Failure Incidents t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 Profits forever lost Accumulated Wasted Variable, Fixed and Failure Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost If there are lots of failures, you end up running around like headless chooks, losing money faster and faster. It makes me laugh when I see this happening in a company. Everyone is busy, but there little profit, … it’s all lost in the ‘failure cost surges’.
  • 55.
    Fortunately Ted, wecan do something about it. There are two choices – get very good at fixing failures fast, or, don’t have failures in the first place - ZERO DEFECTS is the way to go. Benefits of Reducing Operating Risk $ Output / Time Effects on Profitability of Reducing Consequence Only t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 Fewer profits lost, but ‘fire-fighting’ is high Accumulated Wasted Variable and Failure Costs Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Variable Cost Fixed Cost Total Cost $ Output / Time Effects on Profit of Reducing Chance Only t1 t2 Fewer Profits Lost Wasted Fixed Costs Revenue Total Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost Risk ($/yr) = Frequency (/yr) x Consequence ($)
  • 56.
    Implications of DAFTCosts on Maintenance Chance Of Failure in Time Period DAFT Cost per Event $1K $10K $100K $1,000K $10,000K 0% 100% $0.1K $1K $10K $100K $1,000K Repair Cost per Event Accept Never Accept 50% Do the DAFT Cost spreadsheets for each item of plant If each failure costs your business $7,000 – $15,000 for every $1,000 of repair cost … what risk is the business willing to carry? How often will a failure event be accepted?
  • 57.
    Acceptable Equipment ItemFailure Domain DAFT Cost per Failure Event $1K $10K $100K $1,000K $10,000K $0.1K $1K $10K $100K $1,000K Repair Cost per Failure Event Outside the Volume Never Accept Failure 1 2 3 4 Limit of $10,000/Period What is your tolerance for problems on a piece of equipment? Inside this Volume Accept Failure Chance Of Failure in Time Period 100% 50% 10%
  • 58.
    How Maintenance Planning& Scheduling Help to Reduce Unit Cost of Production The ‘Hidden Factory’ Maintenance and Production unearth the ‘hidden factory’ when they work correctly, accurately, safely, right first time. Production Throughput Rate 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 >100 >250 >500 >750 >1000 >1250 >1500 >1750 >2000 >2250 >2500 Units per Hour Hours Waste is any time not spent changing the shape of the product. Design Capacity
  • 59.
    When Operating Costsare Committed Once a plant is designed and built there is very little that can be done to reduce operating costs because they are substantially fixed by the plant’s design. If you want low operating costs, this chart makes it clear that they are designed into the plant and equipment during feasibility, design and construction.
  • 60.
    Maximising Life CycleProfits Idea Creation Approval Detail Design Procurement Construction Commissioning Decommissioning Equipment Life Cycle (say 20 years) ~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 17 years) ~ 5% Preliminary Design Feasibility Operation Disposal The Project Phase is the time to control the future costs of failure All we can do during the operating phase is run and care for the equipment as it was designed to be. If the design requires expensive parts, and/or lots of downtime for maintenance and repairs, then the design is the problem, not the maintenance.
  • 61.
    Life Cycle RiskManagement Strategy Optimised Operating Profit Method Design Drawings Assume Equipment Failure DAFT Costs Spreadsheet Applicable O & M Strategies Redesign with FMEA; Revise O & M Strategies, Revise Project Strategies Projected R & M Costs Busine$$ Ri$k Ba$ed Equipment Criticality Applicable Project Strategies Frequency Achievable? N Y Quality Procedures Precision Maint Predictive Maint Preventive Maint RCFA Maint Planning Etc. FMEA/RCM HAZOP Precision Standards Precision Instaln Reliability Eng Etc. Failure Cost Acceptable? N Y Profit Optimisation Loop It is possible to make great operating cost savings during the design, if the designers reduce the operating risks that their choices cause the business.
  • 62.
    www.BIN95.com Consequence $ Frequency No/yr Risk$/yr = Consequence$ x No of Failures/yr x Chance of Failure Risk can be Measured The ‘A’ curve is the same risk throughout A A A Too many small failures is just as bad as a catastrophe Too many small failures is just as bad as a catastrophe
  • 63.
    www.BIN95.com Grading Risk basedon Chance & Consequence Log of Consequence $ Log of Frequency No/yr Log Risk = Log Consequence x Log Frequency 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1 10 100 1,000 Risk = Consequence x Frequency
  • 64.
    www.BIN95.com What Risk Means LogConsequence $ Log Frequency No/yr Hazard Consequences All threat barriers in place can have ‘holes’ in them. What is the likely cause of the ‘holes’ in the barriers ? I used to wonder why we were so lucky that more things didn’t go wrong! Log-log plot In reality, extreme risk doesn't arise often. What is the chance the ‘holes’ line-up at the same time?
  • 65.
    Risk – ReduceChance or Reduce Consequence? Risk = Chance x Consequence  Engineering and Maintenance Standards  Failure Design-out - Corrective Maintenance  Failure Mode Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA)  Statistical Process Control  Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP)  Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA)  Precision Maintenance  Hazard Identification (HAZID)  Training and Up-skilling  Quality Management Systems  Planning and Scheduling  Continuous Improvement  Supply Chain Management  Accuracy Controlled Enterprise SOPs (ACE 3T)  Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR)  Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC)  Oversize/De-rate Equipment  Reliability Engineering  Preventative Maintenance  Predictive Maintenance  Total Productive Maintenance (TPM)  Non-Destructive Testing  Vibration Analysis  Oil Analysis  Thermography  Motor Current Analysis  Prognostic Analysis  Emergency Management  Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS)  Key Performance Indicators (KPI)  Risk Based Inspection (RBI)  Operator Watch-keeping  Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing)  Logistics, stores and warehouses  Maintenance Engineering Chance Reduction Strategies Consequence Reduction Strategies Done to reduce the chance of failure Done to reduce the cost of failure
  • 66.
    The Application ofRisk Based Principles to Maintenance Hazard Identification identifies failure modes Risk Assessment establishes the probability and consequence of failure Risk Evaluation determines the acceptability of failure to safety, process etc Risk Control reduces risk through effective maintenance practices Monitoring Verifies initial assumptions and maintenance effectiveness Maintenance Planning belongs here … delivering risk management As a Maintenance Planner your job is to deliver the risk control strategies used in your operation. And then check if they actually do lift the plant reliability.
  • 67.
    Equipment Criticality Equipment Criticality= Operating Risk = Failure Frequency (/yr) x DAFT Cost Consequence ($) Equipment Criticality is a business risk rating indicator. We need to know where to put our efforts for the greatest payback. The 80/20 rule applies to maintenance as well – which 20% of equipment maintenance gives 80% of the benefits. Once you have order of priority, you know what to focus on.
  • 68.
    Match Maint Typeto Equipment Criticality Risk Based Method Breakdown Based Maintenance Hazardous, Safety, Environmental dangers from process Breakdown, stops production, affects quality Breakdown, stops production, affects quality Affects downstream plant Affects downstream plant Can be fixed on-line Can be fixed on-line S C B A Equipment Time Based Maintenance Condition Based Maintenance S = Safety ; A,B,C = Maintenance Type Once you decide the criticality, you match the type of maintenance to it by using this risk based chart, or the next one, which uses the inherent reliability of the item as the criteria.
  • 69.
    Choosing of MaintenanceType - Simplified RCM Method Consequence of failure acceptable ? Life reasonably predictable ? Condition Monitoring practical ? Condition Monitoring economic ? Condition based maintenance Design out cause of failure practical? Designing out cause of failure economical ? Time based maintenance Breakdown maintenance Plant Change yes yes yes yes yes no no no no no yes no Be very, very wary of choosing to do Breakdown Maintenance if you have not done the full DAFT Costing. My experience is that Breakdown Maintenance costs a company 7 – 15 times the repair cost. A $10,000 repair really costs the business between $70,000 to $150,000. You can buy a lot of maintenance for that! RCM = Reliability Centred Maintenance
  • 70.
    Planning is aProcess, and needs Control Remember this …? One fails … all fails! One poor … all poor! Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 … 1 1 1 n In a series process we must be precise because there is no redundancy. In a series work process the only way to do a 100% reliable job is to make sure every task in it is done 100% reliably. Because planning is a series process, the task variability problem needs a work system that standardizes what to do, and how to do it. This makes planning repeatable and reliable. The ‘planning system’ comprises the accumulated planning procedures. Scope Standards Parts Procedures Handover Plan the Job Rplan = R1 x R2 x R3 x R4 x R5 Each task 95% reliable 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.77 Each task 90% reliable 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.59 Planning is a series process.
  • 71.
    Track Planning Performance& Benefits • Percent of Plan Followed During the Job • Work Orders With Complete Work Packs • Improved Equipment Reliability • Improved Plant Availability • Maintenance Backlog by Type • Preventive Maintenance Complete On-Time You’ll want to know how well you are going. You can work that out in three ways. First, by seeing how closely the plan is followed. If it is done with 100% compliance and the final condition monitoring check is within standard, you can say the plan was perfect. Second, you can see what effect the work had on the plant’s operation. Third, is by seeing if maintenance productivity improves. If all three trend positively, you are on-track. Plan Compliance Plant Performance Maintenance Performance
  • 72.
    Specify the WorkmanshipStandards • Standardised Work • Setting the Standards for a Job • Identifying Necessary Skills for a Job • Use 3T Failure Preventing Job Procedures “We must protect the plant and equipment from good intentioned people who don’t know what they are doing.” People need to know what is expected from them. They need to know what excellent work is. How else can they ever get a sense of pride in doing a job well?
  • 73.
    Shutdown Performance Recipe PracticesOutcome s Good Management Processes Integration Small size Front-end loading Availability Schedule Safety Cost Best Practices
  • 77.
    Trend to MonitorKPIs Work Orders in Backlog 0 50 100 150 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Weeks in Backlog Work orders Work Orders 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% A u g - 0 3 S e p - 0 3 O c t - 0 3 N o v - 0 3 D e c - 0 3 J a n - 0 4 F e b - 0 4 M a r - 0 4 A p r - 0 4 M a y - 0 4 J u n - 0 4 J u l - 0 4 A u g - 0 4 S e p - 0 4 O c t - 0 4 N o v - 0 4 BREAKDOWN BREAKDOWN TARGET CORRECTIVE PREVENTATIVE PROJECT REWORK PREDICTIVE Target Line Trend Line Trending KPIs turns measurement into monitoring Individual KPI
  • 78.
    Showing Progress Stacked Bar Chartwith Red, Blue, Green quickly shows both progress and work outstanding still to complete
  • 79.
    Developing the Schedule AllWork Backlog by category Prelim Schedule for next week, or longer Schedule 2 Fortnight ahead, or longer Schedule 3 Future, including shuts Fixed for the Week PMs PdMs Corrective Projects Reliability Improvements Work Orders ready to go with parts in store and resource ready Planning Production Requests Daily Schedule M E E T I N G BREAKDOWNS ! WARNING ! You must stop this happening to low priority work, else you will have a breakdown! Screen for Validity and Cost
  • 80.
    Role of theSupervisor: Manage Manpower & Resources to Schedule The Maintenance Supervisor is responsible to meet the plan Planner Supervisor Tradesman Scheduler Cost Quality Time Plan Do Check Act Monitor & Control Progress Plan & Prepare Resources
  • 81.
    The relation between someterms for the availability performance
  • 82.
    THEORETICAL BACKGROUND: FaultFinding in the Total Picture
  • 83.
    MEAN TIME TOFAILURE [MMTF] Where f(t) is the failure probability density function
  • 84.
    MEAN TIME TOREPAIR [MTTR]
  • 85.
    Formulas for AvailabilityPerformance Ai =Inherent Avail ability (e.g. an availability only depending upon the technical system.) Aa = Achieved Availability (e.g. an availability depending upon both the technical system and the maintenance organization.) Ao = Operational Availability MTTM = Mean Time To Maintenance (Maintenance = preventive and corrective maintenance actions) M = Mean Maintenance Time (Time for preventive and corrective maintenance actions)
  • 86.
    Mean Time BetweenFailure, MTBF MDT (Mean Down Time) and MTTF (Mean Time To Failure).
  • 87.
    Percentage of BreakdownsHours = Breakdown Hours / Production Hours x 100 Availability = M a i n t e n a n c e H o u r s / Available Production Hours x 100 where: Breakdown Hours: the hours spent for repairing breakdowns Production Hours: the net production hours where: Maintenance Hours: the hours spent for repairing breakdowns and executing preventive maintenance programs Available Production Hours: the total production hours available except weekends (for example the available production hours in a week are: 24 hours x 5 days=120 hours)
  • 88.
    Reliability Properties forSystems • Series Systems Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 • Parallel Systems Rsystem= 1-[(1- R1)x(1- R2)x(1-R3)] 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 n R = 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.9025 R = 1 – [(1 - 0.6) x (1 - 0.6)] = 0.84 The mathematics can be difficult. But you need to know that such mathematics exists and be able to use the principles to optimise maintenance.
  • 89.
    Reliability Properties forSeries Systems Rsystem= R1 x R2 x R3 1 1 1 n Properties of Series Systems 1. The reliability of a series system can be no higher than the least reliable component. 2. If ‘k’ more items are added into a series system of items (say 1 added to a system of 2, each with R = 0.9) the probability of failure of all items must fall an equal proportion (33%), to maintain the original system reliability. (0.9 x 0.9 = 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.93 = 0.81) 3. A small rise in reliability of all items (say R of the three items rises 0.93 to 0.95, 2.2% improvement) causes a larger rise in system reliability (from 0.81 to 0.86, 5%). • Implications for Equipment made of Series Systems 1 System-wide improvements lift reliability higher than local improvements. This is why SOP’s, training and up-skilling pay-off. 2 Improve the least reliable parts of the least reliable equipment first. 3 Carry spares for series systems and keep the reliability of the spares high. 4 Standardise components so fewer spares are needed. 5 Removing failure modes lifts system reliability. This is why Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) pay off. 6 Provide pseudo-parallel equipment by providing tie-in locations for emergency equipment . 7 Simplify, simplify, simplify – fewer components means higher reliability.
  • 90.
    Reliability Properties forParallel Systems 1 1 1 n Rsystem= 1-[(1- R1)x(1- R2)x(1-R3)] Properties of Parallel Systems 1. The more number of components in parallel the higher the system reliability. 2. The reliability of the parallel arrangement is higher than the reliability of the most reliable component. m m m m m m m m Which arrangement is more reliable if m = 0.9? • Implications of Parallel Systems for Equipment 1 Use parallel arrangements when the risk of failure has high DAFT Cost consequences. 2 Consider providing various paths for product to take in production plants with in-series equipment. 3 Build redundancy into your systems so there is more than one way to do a thing.
  • 91.
    Failure Prediction Mathematics– Weibull Reliability of Parts and Components An increasing failure rate >1 suggests "wear out" - parts are more likely to fail as time goes on. Hence change parts as part of a PM on a time basis. The Maintenance Zones of Component Life Rate of Failing Infant Mortality Constant Likelihood of Failure End of Life A constant failure rate ~ 1 suggests that items are failing from random events. Hence cannot predict when a particular part will fail so use condition monitoring to check for failure mechanism. A decreasing failure rate < 1 would suggest ‘infant mortality’. That is, defective items fail early and the failure rate decreases over time as they fall out of the population. Hence need high quality control and accuracy in manufacture and assembly or ‘burn-in’ on purpose. www.BIN95.com Mr Weibull (say Vaybull) discovered the mathematics to model the life of parts. It uses historic failure data from your CMMS to estimate what life a part has in your operation. Time – Age of Part
  • 92.
    Equipment Reliability Strategies Time– Age of Equipment Strategies for the Infant Mortality Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing How to Drive the Chance Curve Down? How to Pull the Position of the Curve Lower? How to Push the Time of the Curve Back? Time – Age of Equipment Strategies for the Random Failure Maintenance Zone How to Drive the Position of the Curve Lower? Rate of Failing Time – Age of Equipment Strategies for the Wear-Out Failure Maintenance Zone Rate of Failing How to Push the Start of the Rising Curve Back? How to Lower the Curve Steepness? With the new understanding of risk and chance from reliability engineering we now understand which operating and maintenance practices to use to reduce the likelihood of failure happening at every stage of an equipment’s life cycle Quality Control, Training, Precision Assembly PM, PdM, Precision Operation Replace Equipment, Add more components to renewal PM
  • 93.
    6 Mechanical EquipmentCare Standards to Set, Use and Keep Using Vibration: Balancing: Alignment: Fastener Torque: Deformation: Lubricant Cleanliness: These are the BIG 6 that maintenance can control.
  • 94.
    Using Condition Monitoringto Optimise Availability Condition monitoring is not only a tool for checking the equipment condition. It is equally as valid to use it to improve the machine conditions.
  • 95.
    This is agood overview of what we need to do with our plant and equipment throughout its life cycle. If we want high reliability in operation we need to have high reliability at every stage of a machine’s life. A Roadmap for Reliability Improvement
  • 96.
    Maintenance Management BestPractice – Profit-Focused, Ultra-High Reliability Precision Operating Risk Life Cycle Profit Optimisation Loop Precision Domain (with ACE 3Ts) Assemble & use a plan for operation, maintenance & improvement of units Assemble & use a plan for continually removing defects from processes Business Value Contribution Z E R O F A I L U R E
  • 97.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫يوضح‬ ‫المنحنى‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫المراحل‬ ‫هي‬ : 1 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫التسخين‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يقل‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫بسرعة‬ ‫وبتوزيع‬ ‫خاص‬ 2 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫المفيد‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ثابتا‬ ‫ويمثل‬ ‫فشال‬ ‫عشوائيا‬ ‫تماما‬ ‫و‬ ‫بتوزيع‬ ‫أسي‬ ‫سالب‬ 3 - ‫مرحلة‬ ‫االهتراء‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يزداد‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ويمثل‬ ‫فشال‬ ‫بتوزيع‬ ‫معتدل‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) 1 ‫التسخين‬ ‫فترة‬ Running in 2 ‫المفيد‬‫العمر‬ ‫فترة‬ Useful life 3 ‫االهتراء‬ ‫فترة‬ Wear-out ‫تعريف‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫تمثيل‬ ‫عمر‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫لمعدة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫جزء‬ ‫بمنحنى‬ ‫على‬ ‫شكل‬ ‫حوض‬ Bath-TUb ‫يمر‬ ‫بثالث‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫كما‬ ‫في‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫التالي‬ :
  • 98.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫خلفية‬ ‫رياضية‬ ‫لقياس‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫تحسب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫من‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫وتوزيعاتها‬ ‫التكرارية‬ ‫لألعطال‬ ‫الممكن‬ ‫حدوثها‬ ‫خ‬ ‫الل‬ ‫فترة‬ ‫زمنية‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫من‬ ‫نوع‬ ‫معين‬ ‫لقطعة‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫والمعدالت‬ ‫األساسية‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫التي‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫التعر‬ ‫ف‬ ‫عليها‬ ‫هي‬ : 2 - ‫طريقة‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Probability density functionof failure ) ( 1 t f  2 - ‫التوزيع‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫لدالة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Cumulative distribution function of failure    t dt t f t F 0 ) ( ) ( 2 3 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ( ‫البقاء‬ ) : ‫احتمال‬ ‫بقاء‬ ‫العنصر‬ ‫دون‬ ‫عطل‬ Reliability function (survival) ) ( 1 ) ( 3 t F t R    4 - ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ( ‫اللحمي‬ ) ‫للفشل‬ ( ‫معدل‬ ‫الخطر‬ ) Age- specific (instantaneous) failure {Hazard rate) ) ( 1 ) ( ) ( 4 t F t f t Z    5 - ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫الفشل‬ Mean time to failure     o dt t tf MTTF ) ( 5
  • 99.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫طريقة‬ ‫مبسطة‬ ‫لحساب‬ ‫الدوال‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Probability density functionof failure   ) ( 1 t f ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 2 - ‫التوزيع‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫لدالة‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ Cumulative distribution function of failure   ) ( 2 t F ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫المتراكمة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 3 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ( ‫البقاء‬ ) : ‫احتمال‬ ‫بقاء‬ ‫العنصر‬ ‫دون‬ ‫عطل‬ Reliability function (survival) ) ( 1 ) ( 3 t F t R    ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الوقت‬ (t=0) 4 - ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ( ‫اللحمي‬ ) ‫للفشل‬ ( ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫أو‬ ‫الخطر‬ ) Age-specific (instantaneous) failure {Hazard rate or Failure rate) ) ( 1 ) ( ) ( 4 t F t f t Z    ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t) ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫زمن‬ (t)
  • 100.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫تم‬ ‫تركيب‬ ( 150 ) ‫وحدة‬ ‫في‬ ‫قسم‬ ‫وقد‬ ‫تم‬ ‫جمع‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫حول‬ ‫فش‬ ‫لها‬ ‫خالل‬ ( 30 ) ‫فترة‬ ‫زمنية‬ ‫كم‬ ‫مبين‬ ‫في‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫المرفق‬ . ‫احسب‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الفشل‬ 2 - ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 3 - ‫معدل‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫للفشل‬ ‫وارسم‬ ‫النتائ‬ ‫ج‬ . ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ 0 - 1 150 1 - 2 124 2 - 3 107 3 - 4 95 4 - 5 87 5 - 6 80 6 - 7 75 7 - 8 70 8 - 9 66 9 - 10 62 10 - 11 59 11 - 12 56 12 - 13 53 13 - 14 50 14 - 15 47 ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ 15 - 16 44 16 - 17 42 17 - 18 40 18 - 19 38 19 - 20 36 20 - 21 34 21 - 22 32 22 - 23 29 23 - 24 26 24 - 25 24 25 - 26 22 26 - 27 20 27 - 28 17 28 - 29 15 29 - 30 13
  • 101.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫وحدة‬ ‫الوحدات‬‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫بداية‬ A B 0 - 1 150 1 - 2 124 2 - 3 107 3 - 4 95 4 - 5 87 5 - 6 80 6 - 7 75 7 - 8 70 8 - 9 66 9 - 10 62 10 - 11 59 11 - 12 56 12 - 13 53 13 - 14 50 14 - 15 47 ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫الفاشلة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫عند‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫نهاية‬ C D 26 124 17 107 12 95 8 87 7 80 5 75 5 70 4 66 4 62 3 59 3 56 3 53 3 50 3 47 3 44 ‫الفش‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫ل‬ f(t) % ‫الفشل‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫التراكمي‬ F % ‫دالة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ R % ‫الفشل‬ ‫معدل‬ Z(t) % f=(C/B0) F=(f) R=100-F Z=C/B 17.3 17.3 82.7 17.3 11.4 28.7 71.3 13.7 8.0 36.7 63.3 11.2 5.3 42.0 58.0 8.4 4.7 46.7 53.3 8.0 3.3 50.0 50.0 6.3 3.3 53.3 46.7 6.7 2.7 56.0 44.0 5.7 2.7 58.7 41.3 6.1 2.0 60.7 39.3 4.8 2.0 62.7 37.3 5.1 2.0 64.7 35.3 5.4 2.0 66.7 33.3 5.7 2.0 68.7 31.3 6.0 2.0 70.7 29.3 6.4
  • 102.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫كثافة‬ ‫دالة‬ f(t) 30 ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫التراكمي‬ ‫التوزيع‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫منحنى‬ F(t) 30
  • 103.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫دالة‬ ‫منحنى‬ R(t) 30 ‫الزمن‬ ‫فترة‬ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ‫الفشل‬ ‫معدل‬ ( ‫المحدد‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫للفشل‬ ) Z 30
  • 104.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مالحظة‬ : 1 - ‫يمكن‬ ‫كتابة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫المعادالت‬ ‫كالتالى‬ :        i i i i i i i t t Q Q Q Z       1 1 1 , 1 ‫حيث‬ Qi = ‫عدد‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫التي‬ ‫بدأ‬ ‫في‬ ‫اختيارها‬ ‫في‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫الفترة‬ Q i+1 = ‫َدد‬‫ع‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫العاملة‬ ‫في‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الفترة‬ ti = ‫زمن‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫عند‬ ‫بدايتها‬ t i+1 = ‫زمن‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫في‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫الفترة‬   i i i dt dQ Q 1    dt dt dQ     ‫وعند‬ ‫تصغير‬ ‫الفترة‬ ‫الزمنية‬ ‫الى‬ ‫ماال‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫فان‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫يصبح‬ :   t e Q Q R     0 2 - ‫يتم‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫كالتالي‬ :    1  MTBF 3 - ‫يحسب‬ ‫متوسط‬ ‫العمر‬ ‫ما‬ ‫بين‬ ‫االخفاق‬
  • 105.
  • 106.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫تعرف‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫بمقدار‬ ‫االستعداد‬ ‫واحتمالية‬ ‫اتاحتها‬ ‫للعمل‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫الطلب؛‬ ‫ومفهو‬ ‫م‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫يجمع‬ ‫ما‬ ‫بين‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫وقابلية‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫يعبر‬ ‫عنها‬ ‫بالتالي‬ : 3 - ‫اإلتاحة‬ ِ Availability MTTR MTBF MTBF A   ‫حيث‬ MTBF = ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫بين‬ ‫األعطال‬ ( ‫الفشل‬ ) MTTR = ‫متوسط‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫لإلصالح‬ ‫وعليه‬ ‫تعتمد‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫على‬ ‫مقدار‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫الجزء‬ ‫للعمل‬ , ‫ومقدار‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫الم‬ ‫طلوب‬ ‫للقيام‬ ‫باإلصالح‬ ‫وهي‬ ‫تتأثر‬ ‫بالتالي‬ :  ‫مقدار‬ ‫اإلتاحة‬ ‫لقطع‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫ويحسب‬ ‫من‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫االستيداع‬ .  ‫عامل‬ ‫االستخدام‬ = { ‫زمن‬ ‫التشغيل‬ (t1) [/ ‫زمن‬ ‫التشغيل‬ (t1) + ‫زمن‬ ‫الصيانة‬ (t2) + ‫زمن‬ ‫توقف‬ (t3) ] }  ‫مقدار‬ ‫إتاحة‬ ‫افراد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ويحسب‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫الحتمال‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫العمالة‬ ‫المتخصصة‬ .
  • 107.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ 4 - ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫تنقسم‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫نوعين‬ : 1 ( ‫نظم‬ ‫متتالية‬ : R1 R2 ‫في‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الحالة‬ ‫يفشل‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫لفشل‬ ‫إحدى‬ ‫الوحدات‬ , ‫وتكون‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفعالة‬ ‫للنظام‬ ‫هي‬ : n R R R R    ....... 2 1 ‫وعليه‬ ‫فان‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫أقل‬ ‫من‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫كل‬ ‫وحدة‬ . ‫مثال‬ : R1= 0.95 , R2= 0.9  R= 0.855 ‫وبفرض‬ ‫معادلة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ = ‫تصبح‬ ‫المعادلة‬ t e R     t n e R    * ..... * * 2 1  
  • 108.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫وعليه‬ ‫فان‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫أكبر‬ ‫من‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫كل‬ ‫وحدة‬ . ‫مثال‬ : R1= 0.95 ,R2= 0.9  R= 0.995 2 ( ‫نظم‬ ‫متوازية‬ : ‫في‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الحالة‬ ‫يؤدي‬ ‫فشل‬ ‫إحدى‬ ‫الوحدات‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫انخفاض‬ ‫أداء‬ ‫النظام‬ , ‫وتكون‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫الفعال‬ ‫ة‬ ‫للنظام‬ ‫هي‬ :       n R R R R         1 ....... 1 1 1 2 1 R2 R1 ‫وبفرض‬ ‫معادلة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ = ‫تصبح‬ ‫المعادلة‬ t e R           t t t n e e e R            1 ....... 1 1 1 2 1
  • 109.
    ‫دراسة‬ ‫الموثوقية‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫لنظام‬ ‫مكون‬ ‫من‬ ‫توالي‬ ‫وتوازي‬ : ‫وتصبح‬ ‫موثوقية‬ ‫النظ‬ ‫ام‬            4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1                                 e e e R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R RS R1 R2 R3 R4 R1 X R2 R3 X R4 ‫مثال‬ ‫لنظام‬ ‫متراكب‬ : R2 R3 R2 R4 R7 R7 R7 R7 R6 R1 R5 R5 R5 R5               2 2 7 6 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 R R R R R R R RS             
  • 110.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 1 - ‫مفهوم‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ Risk Based Maintenance ‫هي‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫مبنية‬ ‫عل‬ ‫تقدير‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫توقعات‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫ومن‬ ‫ثم‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫متطلبات‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫منها‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫بالصيانة‬ ‫بناء‬ ‫جدول‬ ‫ز‬ ‫مني‬ ‫محدد‬ ‫وذلك‬ ‫بتحديد‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫التفتيش‬ ‫واإلحالل‬ ‫وتاريخ‬ ‫ت‬ ‫شغيل‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫وكيفية‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫قطع‬ ‫الغ‬ ‫يار‬ ‫من‬ ‫بدال‬ ‫وقد‬ ‫استخدمت‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الطريقة‬ ‫من‬ ‫أوائل‬ ‫الستينات‬ ‫في‬ ‫مجال‬ ‫التوربينات‬ ‫الطائرات‬ ‫ومحطات‬ ‫توليد‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫النووية‬ ‫والتوربينات‬ ‫البخارية‬
  • 111.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 2 - ‫أهداف‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬  ‫التحديد‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫للمخاطرة‬ ‫المرتبطة‬ ‫باألعطال‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫واألنظمة‬ .  ‫التحديد‬ ‫لموارد‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫مبنية‬ ‫على‬ ‫أولويات‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫المحددة‬ ‫كميا‬ 3 - ‫تعريف‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ Risk ; Defined 1 - ‫المخاطرة‬ = ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ × ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫ذلك‬ 2 - ‫احتمال‬ ‫الفشل‬ = ( ‫فشل‬ ‫نمط‬ ‫أحد‬ ‫المكونات‬ ‫في‬ ‫النظام‬ ) / ( ‫مجموع‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫المكون‬ ‫معرفا‬ ‫بالزمن‬ ‫أو‬ ‫بفترة‬ ‫الحدث‬ ) 3 - ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬ = ‫تكلفة‬ ‫اإلصالح‬ + ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفاقد‬ ( ‫تكل‬ ‫فة‬ ‫التوقف‬ ) + ‫تكلفة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫اكتمال‬ ‫الصيانة‬
  • 112.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 4 - ‫كيفية‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫كميا‬  ‫جمع‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نمط‬ ‫فشل‬ ‫ومعدالته‬ ‫لمكونات‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫للبيانات‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫لمكونات‬ ‫مماثلة‬ ‫في‬ ‫تطبيقات‬ ‫مماثلة‬ .  ‫تحليل‬ ‫وصفي‬ ‫لتوجهات‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫وأثارها‬ ‫وذلك‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫الجهد‬ ‫في‬ ‫تحدي‬ ‫د‬ ‫كمي‬ ‫للمخاطرة‬ . 5 - ‫الخطوات‬ ‫االرشادية‬ ‫لتحديد‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫أعطت‬ ‫جمعية‬ ‫المهندسين‬ ‫الميكانيكيين‬ ‫األمريكية‬ ASME ‫خطوات‬ ‫ارشادية‬ ‫يمكن‬ ‫ابرازها‬ ‫في‬ ‫التالي‬ : (1 ‫تعريف‬ ‫النظام‬ (2 ‫تقييم‬ ‫المخاطرة‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫وصفيا‬ ‫وترتيب‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫للنظا‬ ‫م‬ (3 ‫تطوير‬ ‫برنامج‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫المطلوب‬ (4 ‫دراسة‬ ‫األفضلية‬ ‫االقتصادية‬
  • 113.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 1 - ‫تعريف‬ ‫النظام‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫النظام‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫األعطال‬ ( ‫نتائج‬ ‫المخاطر‬ )  ‫تحليل‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫والموثوقية‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫التكاليف‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬  ‫المطابقة‬ ‫لمجال‬ ‫التطبيق‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫األعطال‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫أنماط‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫وتأثيرها‬ ( ‫دراسة‬ ‫األنماط‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫القياسية‬ ‫والمعلومات‬ ‫األساسية‬ ) { ‫مثل‬ : ‫شروخ‬ – ‫كاللة‬ – ‫تشوهات‬ – ‫اهتزازات‬ - ... ‫وغيره‬ )  ‫تحليل‬ ‫شجرة‬ ‫األعطال‬ ‫للمكونات‬  ‫تحليل‬ ‫الحرجية‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫وترتيبها‬
  • 114.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ ‫تحليل‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫االحتمالية‬  ‫إيجاد‬ ‫أنماط‬ ‫الفشل‬ : ‫حساب‬ ‫احتماالت‬ ‫الفشل‬ ‫والموثوقية‬ ( ‫دراسة‬ ‫احتماالت‬ ‫ال‬ ‫عطل‬ ‫من‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫والخبرات‬ ‫المكتسبة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫العطل‬ ) ‫تحليل‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫المترتبة‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفشل‬  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫اإلصالح‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫صيانة‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫وتكاليف‬ ‫الهالك‬ ‫واإلحالل‬ )  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفقد‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫توقف‬ ‫المنظومة‬ ‫هن‬ ‫العمل‬ )  ‫تكلفة‬ ‫الفرصة‬ ‫المفقودة‬ ( ‫تكلفة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫اكتمال‬ ‫الصيانة‬ )
  • 115.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 2 - ‫حساب‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫وترتيب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫من‬ ‫األعطال‬  ‫حساب‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لجميع‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫والمكونات‬ .  ‫ترتيب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫من‬ ‫األكثر‬ ‫خطورة‬ ‫للمكونات‬ ‫داخل‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫األنظمة‬ ‫الفرعية‬ ‫ولجميع‬ ‫األنظمة‬ ‫الفرعية‬ ‫داخل‬ ‫النظام‬ ‫الرئيسي‬ ) ‫المطابقة‬ ‫للتطبيق‬ ‫المحدد‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫صفات‬ ‫مجال‬ ‫التطبيق‬ ‫المؤثرة‬ ‫عل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ o ‫قابلية‬ ‫المراقبة‬ o ‫قابلية‬ ‫للصيانة‬ ‫التوقعية‬ o ‫سمات‬ ‫التصميم‬ o ‫تاريخ‬ ‫المعدة‬ ‫السابق‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫عالقة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫الصفات‬ ‫في‬ ‫رفع‬ ‫أو‬ ‫خفض‬ ‫احتمالية‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫ونتائجها‬ .
  • 116.
    ‫الصيانة‬ ‫في‬ ‫األعطال‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫بالمخاطرة‬ 4 - ‫دراسة‬ ‫األفضلية‬ ‫االقتصادية‬  ‫استمرارية‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫بناءا‬ ‫على‬ ‫الخبرة‬  ‫تبرير‬ ‫تكاليف‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫ونشاطات‬ ‫الصيانة‬ ‫التوقعية‬  ‫تكاليف‬ ‫توفر‬ ‫قطع‬ ‫الغيار‬ ‫والتخزين‬ 3 - ‫تطوير‬ ‫برنامج‬ ‫الصيانة‬  ‫تحديد‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫بناءا‬ ‫على‬ ‫أوليات‬ ‫المخاطر‬ .  ‫أخذ‬ ‫القرارات‬ ‫المتعلقة‬ ‫بالصيانة‬ ‫وفقا‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫األوليات‬ . ( ‫زيادة‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫مضخات‬ ‫ف‬ ‫ي‬ ‫وحدة‬ )