Owen Ryan, DECLG - A presentation outlining the changes to climate change policy in Ireland

1. EPA
State of the Environment Report ’12
Review of Climate Policy in Ireland
Owen Ryan
Climate Policy
Department of the Environment, Community
& Local Government

2. Climate Change Agenda
• International agenda
– UN Convention (1992) and Kyoto Protocol (1997).
– Copenhagen Accord (2009) and Cancun Agreements (2010).
– Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (2011).
– IPCC – 4th scientific assessment report (2007).
• EU agenda
– Climate and Energy Package Dec’08.
– Proposed Roadmap to a competitive, low-carbon economy in 2050.
• National agenda
– National Climate Change Strategy 2007-2012.
– Ongoing Review of National Climate Policy.
– Programme for development of national climate policy and legislation.

3. Existing EU policy for 2020
• Unilateral EU target to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by 20% by 2020.
– underpinned by Climate and Energy legislative package adopted
in Dec’08.
• Conditional offer to step up to 30% as part of a
global & comprehensive international agreement
for the post-2012 period.
– Under 2011 Durban Platform for Enhance Action, real prospect
for a new international agreement by 2015 and implementation
from 2020.

4. EU Policy Development
• Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-
carbon economy in 2050:
– setting a long-term vision on cost-effective transition with key
mitigation milestones in 2020, 2030 and 2040.
• Roadmap foresees:
– overachievement (up to 25%) with full implementation of current
policies; and
– possible need to recalibrate ETS allowances to push progress
on energy efficiency.
• Recent proposal from the Commission on land
use, land use change, and forestry.

5. Ireland’s current 2020 target
• In 2013-20 period:
– emissions covered by EU-ETS to be reduced by 21% compared
to 2005; and
– other (non-ETS) emissions by 20%.
• Non-ETS target:
– downward trajectory with annual targets from 2013;
– current distance to target 4.1 to 7.8MtCO2e;
– flexibilities in EU legislation provide an important safety net but
come at a price and do not contribute to domestic transition; and
– non-compliance is not an option – key issue is the most effective
approach to compliance.

6. Policy approach to 2020
• NCCS 2007-2012:
– participation by Irish installations in EU-ETS;
– mitigation across the remainder of the economy, based on a
least-cost approach; and
– domestic action supplemented, as necessary, by purchased
carbon units.
• What approach for post-2012?
– key issue for ongoing climate policy review;
– importance of longer-term transition to a low-carbon future,
particularly on the opportunity side; and
– important to get capital investment right – clean technology.

7. Climate Policy Review
• Released 3rd November 2011.
• Important stock-taking exercise.
• On course for Kyoto Protocol compliance.
• 2020 target (EU law) must be addressed in
longer-term context of transition to competitive,
low-carbon economy.
• National policy must be in place before
legislating can be introduced; legislation must
underpin policy.

8. Response to Climate Policy Review
• “Putting balanced and progressive policies in place to
progress effective national transition without undermining
the competitiveness of the economy is where the real
policy development challenge lies.”
• 3-pronged approached to achieve the necessary
policy mix:
– independent analysis by the Secretariat to NESC, to inform the
policy development process;
– a public consultation; and
– ongoing work through the Cabinet Committee on Climate
Change and the Green Economy.

9. Programme for Policy & Legislation
• Issued by Minister on 18th January 2012.
• Central role foreseen for Oireachtas Committee
on Environment, Transport, Culture & Gaeltacht.
• Key elements of Programme:
– Independent analysis by NESC Secretariat – interim
report by end June ’12 and final report by end year;
and
– public consultation – March/April ’12.

10. Programme for Policy and Legislation
Next Steps
• NESC Secretariat interim report by end June
’12.
• Quarter 3 – Minister to release interim report and
seek views of Oireachtas Committee.
• Quarter 4 – Minister to announce:
– Government response to interim report; and
– issue heads of climate bill for consideration by
Oireachtas Committee and stakeholders.
• Full Programme available on www.environ.ie

11. Facts for post-2012 policy
• Current GHG mitigation targets for 2020 are binding
under EU law:
– infringement proceedings in the event of non-compliance.
• Targets likely to strengthen as EU policy develops, either
in line with or ahead of international policy.
• Ireland’s somewhat unique GHG profile within EU;
– relatively low proportion of emissions fall within scope of EU-ETS where
abatement options tend to be less costly; and
– agriculture emissions at approximately 40% of non-ETS in 2009.
• New potential for growth in dairy sector from 2015.
• Treatment of LULUCF category still something of a
policy unknown – major issue for Ireland.

12. Considerations for post-2012 policy
• Future growth must be sustainable on economic and
environmental grounds.
• Transition to a low-carbon future inevitable.
• Emerging global green economy now a major influence
on transition; competitiveness is a key factor.
• Need for a new focus on challenges and opportunities.
• Investment critical – clean technology.
• Post 2012 – simple compliance-based policy response
to targets no longer adequate.
• “In meeting our future GHG mitigation commitments, national
policy development must aim to position Ireland among the
progressive leading countries in the low-carbon global economy of
tomorrow” Minister Hogan, on releasing the review of national policy,
November 11.