A Week of turbulent events in Nepal with no breakthrough in Constitution drafting and dissolution of the Assembly but more hopes for Afghanistan where the Chicago summit confirmed commitment of international community

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 27 MAY 2012
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2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Chicago Summit - NATO • Post Chicago summit
confirms pull out, commits responses.
beyond 2014. • Intensification of violence
• Mixed response to Chicago
Summit declaration, Taliban
want foreign forces to leave.
• Afghan parliament clears US
Afghanistan Strategic
Agreement.
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3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Pressure for political • Sustained trend - Diffusion
reconciliation grows as or expansion of political
Jatiya Sansad tensions with spill over of
assembled, but Prime the latter in the form of
Minister rejects bandhs and street side
compromise. violence?
• Economist article calls for
Indian intervention.
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4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Rupee crisis • Sustained Trend - Possible
continues, government review of decision on
seeks additional borrowings restrictions on rupee with
from Indian Banks likely spread over the long
term.
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5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political confabulations • Sustained Trend - Political
continue even as appeals to differences to remain
former Presidents Gayoom contested.
and Nasheed to stay out of
politics for greater chance
of reconciliation
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6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India prepares for Prime • Firming up of Indo
Minister Dr Man Mohan Myanmar relations during
Singh’s visit to Myanmar. Prime Minister’s visit.
• US suspends sanctions
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7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Constituent Assembly • Political crisis and
dissolved due to lack of deterioration in law and
consensus on federal order situation likely.
structure of state.
• Fresh Elections announced
for November
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8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Prime Minister gets reprieve as • US Pakistan negotiations to
National Assembly Speaker rules
in favour of qualification post open NATO supply route.
Supreme court verdict.
• US Pakistan relations remain
• Political resistance to ruling
strained due to non opening of of National Assembly
supply route, sentencing of Dr speaker on Prime Minister’s
Afridi, CIA lead to Osama.
• Karachi, Sindh remain on the boil qualification issue.
as Sindh nationalism erupts. • Possible launch of
• Balochistan consensus for
political resolution but operations in North
implementation challenges Waziristan by Pak Army.
remain.
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9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Former Army Chief General • Continued Trends - Likely
Sarath Fonseka relieved progress in formation of
from jailed, opposition viable parliamentary
attempts to rope him in committee for talks on
politics . Fonseka hopes to ethnic issue.
unite opposition
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10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indo Pakistan talks on Visa • Indo Myanmar relations to
agreement fail to produce firm up.
results.
• India seeks to open
consulate in Lhasa, China
rejects proposal
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11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indian navy port calls in East • Indo US Defence Minister
Asia including China. level talks on 6 June likely.
• IAF signs deal for Pilatus
Basic Trainer first multi
vendor deal finalised.
• Task Force on National
Security submits report to
Prime Minister.
• Akash SAM missile tests
held.
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12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• White Paper on black • Red Alert on terror threats
money released. in metros likely to continue
• Immigration and foreign
visitors monitoring system
IVFRT established
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13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Interlocutors report • Continuing trends - Terror
released invites widespread encounters likely but will be
criticism from both away from the tourist spots.
spectrums
• Likely split in moderate
separatists.
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14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Naga reconciliation meet in • Continued trends - North
Chiang Mai reset as NSCN East separatist and Naxal
IM fails to turn up. menace combination may
• NSCN IM castigates NSCN K raise threat profile in
for treaty with Myanmar Assam.
government.
• Naxal- Manipur based PLA
nexus uncovered by NIA
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15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Centre not satisfied with • Continued alert in central
state response to tackle India, North East
Naxalism. Policy review
including move to induct
Army likely.
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16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
required query email rkbhonsle@gmail.com
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