The latest version of South Asia Security Trends for the Week Ending 20 May 2012 as much water has flown below the bridge be it in Afghanistan, Pakistan or prospective relations of the latter with India

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 20 MAY 2012
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2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Chicago Summit – NATO • Post Chicago summit
strategy formalisation – 20 national responses.
– 21 May. • Post Chicago summit Taliban
• Level of violence reportedly response.
increases in South even as
that in other parts of the
country goes down.
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3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Mass Arrest of BNP leaders. • Diffusion or expansion of
• BNP shifts mode of political tensions with spill
agitation to hunger strike over of the latter in the
offers talks with Awami form of bandhs and street
League provided Caretaker side violence?
Government is part of
agenda.
• Pressure for political
reconciliation by business
leaders and foreign
diplomats.
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4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Rupee crisis continues, • Possible review of decision
government seeks advise of on restrictions on rupee
private sector stake holders with likely spread over the
long term.
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5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political agitations MDP and • Political differences to
government alliance as remain contested.
Waheed government
completes 100 days.
• India opens credit facility of
USD 25 million.
• Indo Maldives naval
exercise surveillance of EEZ.
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6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• US assurance on removal of • Indian PM Dr Man Mohan
sanctions as Foreign Singh to visit by end of
Minister meets US Secretary month.
of State Hillary Clinton in • Continued fighting in Kachin
Washington. area
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7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Differences over number of • Vote on contentious issues
provinces continue as four in Constitution likely before
party talks break down. 27 May
• Agitation by minorities • Continued bandhs and
continue with bandhs and strikes.
arson.
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8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Agitation by PML N and • Finalisation of opening of
other opposition parties for NATO supply route.
removal of Mr Gilani. • Political confrontation on
• Pakistan seeks $ 5000 per PM Gilani’s continuance.
transhipment, US refuses • Possible launch of
even as President Zardari operations in North
attends NATO summit in Waziristan by Pak Army.
Chicago.
• Karachi and Balochistan
violence continues.
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9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Consensus building • Likely progress in formation
Government opposition UNP of viable parliamentary
and TNA. committee for talks on
• Victory celebrations defeat of ethnic issue.
LTTE, continued military
presence in North due to
security concerns confirmed.
• Foreign Minister explains
implementation of LLRC
recommendations to US
Secretary of State.
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10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India Italy relations tense • Series of Indo Pak talks.
over continued custody of
marines, PMs speak.
• Iran President speaks to
Indian PM, likely invite for
NAM, energy imports, trade
and Afghanistan.
• GSPA agreement on TAPI
approved by the Cabinet.
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11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Ministry of Defence • Indo US Defence Minister
declares defence offset level talks on 6 June likely.
valued at $ 4 billion plus.
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12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Presidential race hots up as • Red Alert on terror threats
P A Sangma declared as a in metros likely to continue
candidate by two regional
parties but lacks broader
support.
• Lashkar threatens to strike
on Wagah border check
post to derail Indo Pakistan
talks.
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13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Preparation for summer • Terror encounters likely but
including Amarnath Yatra. will be away from the
• Possibility of Separatists, tourist spots.
moderate Hurriyat
participating in future
elections?
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14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Controversy over visit of 8 • North East separatist and
EU Ambassadors to Naxal menace combination
Nagaland. may raise threat profile in
• Naga reconciliation meet in Assam.
Chiang Mai, NSCN IM drops
out.
• NSCN IM castigates
inclusion of other factions in
talks by Centre.
• Assam to form anti Naxal,
financial crime cell.
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15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• SOP on negotiations, • Continued alert in central
hostage rescue to be India, North East
drafted.
• Sporadic Naxal violence
contnues
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16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
required query email rkbhonsle@gmail.com
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