Weekly security trends in South Asia covering span of countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar and all important regions of India including foreign policy, defence, Jammu and Kashmir, North East and Naxalism.

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 10 JUNE 2012
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2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Regional engagement • New Delhi to host Afghan
increases with Afghanistan private sector funding meet
now observer of SCO. India on 28 June.
& China expand economic • Continued violence due to
engagement. summer campaigning
seasons.
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3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political differences • Hopes of political
continue. rapprochement remote as
• Lt Gen Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan contestations continue
nominated new army chief. though some relief by High
• Defence budget increased Court to opposition law
by 10 percent. makers likely.
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4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India enhances rupee • Some economic relief with
borrowings to INR 10 Billion easing of Rupee situation.
from INR 3 Billion. Will • Long term restructuring
provide some relief to necessary to reduce
economy strangled by dependence on Rupee.
Rupee crunch.
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5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Commission of National • Sustained Trend - Political
Inquiry to investigate coup differences to remain
circumstances contested.
underway, continued • Three way political
differences mars split, MDP, PPM and others
functioning. likely.
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6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Differences over Suu Kyi’s • Suu Kyi foreign visits during
visit to Thailand . the month to raise
• 17 Rohingya’s killed in controversies.
Rakhine province as • Communal situation
communal violence remains sensitive in Rakhine
escalates province.
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7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Political Crisis continues. • Efforts to build political
• Opposition demands consensus continue.
resignation of Prime
Minister Bhattarai.
• Differences within Maoists
Dahal-Bhattarai and Baidya-
Thapa factions widen split
likely.
• Royalists attempt to
resurface taking advantage
of political space.
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8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• US Pakistan relations reach • Possible launch of
new low and negotiations operations in North
for opening supply route Waziristan by Pak Army.
fail.
• Judiciary – Executive
relations in focus with
allegations of involvement
of chief justice’s son Dr
Arsalan Iftikhar in deals with
real estate tycoon Malik
Riaz.
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9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Cancellation of President’s • Continued contestations on
speech in UK due to mechanisms for resolution
pressure from Tamil of ethnic differences.
diaspora .
• Army claims reduction in
number of troops in Jaffna.
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10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India participates in SCO • Indo US strategic dialogue
summit seeks greater on 11 June in Washington.
engagement. • Indo Pakistan talks on
Siachen 10-11
June, however no
breakthrough expected.
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11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indo US Defence Minister • CBI inquiry on Tatra other
level talks on 6 June. defence deals under
• Jimex 12 commences with scanner to continue apace.
Japanese SDF and Indian
Navy.
• Vice Admiral DK Joshi Will
be the Next Navy Chief
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12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Government rejects Team • Red Alert on terror threats
Anna’s allegations against in metros likely to continue
Prime Minister, other
ministers for corruption.
• Meeting for acceleration of
Infrastructure projects.
• India to adopt new cyber
policy, defensive and
offensive capability
envisaged.
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13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Incidents of low level • Continuing trends - Terror
violence continue. encounters likely but will be
away from the tourist spots.
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14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Demand of Frontier state in • Continued trends - North
Nagaland rejected. East separatist and Naxal
• More links of Manipur menace combination may
group PLA with Maoists. raise threat profile in
Assam.
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15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Sporadic violence • Sporadic incidents of
continues, Naxal enforce violence to continue before
bandh in selected areas. the monsoons.
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16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
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