This document analyzes a proposed negative attack ad targeting Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on their stances regarding Medicare and Social Security. The ad would be run by a third party in Florida to influence senior citizens, a key voting bloc. Research shows negative ads can be effective if they transfer fear and anger to the target. The ad highlights Ryan's past proposals to reform entitlements and ties Romney to these views. Focus groups found the ad provoked strong emotions, suggesting it could influence seniors and potentially sway the close election in Florida.

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Randall Siwiec
Caleb Newton
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
GOVT E-1356
Campaign Ad Project
October 22, 2012

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Third Party Ad Attacking Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney
I. Introduction
Although it is the scholarly consensus thatvice presidential candidates often have little
effect as to whether a presidential candidate wins, we believe thatPaul Ryan could prove very
influential, in a negative way, among elderly voters because of his controversial paststances on
Medicare and Social Security, ifthose are used to attack Romney effectively (Ulbig, 2010, 331-32).
We believe, much as Palin and Cheney proved to affect“independent” voter choice, Ryan could
prove to affect the senior vote, such as those in swing states like Florida (Ulbig, 2010, 331, 344-
46). In fact, Romney’s statements that he agreed with Ryan’s budgetproposal would be
controversial, even ifRyan was not his running mate; before Romney even picked Ryan as his
running mate, articles critiqued him for his supportofRyan’s budget, which included controversial
reforms of Medicare (Cohen, 2012; Grant, 2012). Accusations over senior entitlements, such as
Medicare, have proved to be a weapon wielded by both sides, in an attempt to attract the senior
vote in swing states like Florida (Klas, 2012). Indeed, Medicare was mentioned 52 times in the first
presidential debate,i 34 times in the vice presidential debateii and 5 times in the second presidential
debate.iii Social Security was mentioned 11 times in the first presidential debate,iv 15 times in the
vice presidential debatev and 5 times in the second presidential debate.vi Itis our beliefthat
Romney’s new lead in Florida is substantially supported by his 13% leadvii among likely voters 50
and over (CNN, 2012). We believe thatObama should have been and needs to be more
aggressively undermining these senior voters’ confidence that Romney will protecttheir
entitlements. Strong negative attacks may create enough doubtin Romney’s senior supporters to
drive them into the undecided column—as a well made attack ad often can for wavering voters
(Buell and Sigelman, 2008, 22). With the youth vote expected to decline,especially among Obama

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supporters, Obama needs to either drive away Romney voters or convince more undecided voters
to supporthim at the polls. An effective attack ad targeting seniors is something thatcould do just
that.
II. Why we created a negative contrast ad run by a third-party and the scholarship
supporting our choice
There are many reasons why we created a negative contrast ad run by a third-party. First, we
want to define who Mitt Romney is. As the challenger, Romney needs to define himselfor his
opponents will (Wayne, 2012, p. 270). This ad takes an issue, Social Security, that Romney speaks
very little about and ties him to the controversial proposals ofhis running mate, Paul Ryan, to
privatize it. His 87 page “Believe in America” mentions Social Security only twice (Mitt Romney for
President, Believe in America, 2011, p. 142). On his website, he only devotes 207 words to social
security in his list ofpolicy issues (Romney for President, Inc., Social Security, 2012; Stanton,
2012). Romney continually sidesteps a discussion ofexactly how he will change social security by
emphasizing that current retirees are safe (Romney for President, Inc., Social Security, 2012;
Commission ofPresidential Debates, October 3, 2012 Debate Transcript, 2012). Painting Romney
as an untrustworthy ward of social security and other entitlements is a considerable weapon atthe
disposal ofthe Obama campaign.
Second, we believe a third party sponsored attack ad will be both more effective than a
candidate sponsored attack ad and help Obama avoid the backlash that may occur from our ad.
Indeed, attack ads by third parties have been shown to be more effective than candidate
sponsored ads and, to some degree, can shield the candidate from backlash (Garramone, 1985,
157-58; Franz, 2011, 131). The downside to having a third party air attack ads is that the Obama
campaign loses control over the narrative ofthis possibily important line ofattack, since many third
parties are prohibited from coordinating with campaigns (Garrett, 2011, 21-21). Further, voters

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appear to play closer attention to candidate sponsored ads (Franz, 2011, 131). We believe,though,
that, as strategist Mark McKinnon notes, ads are as much or more for the media as for the voter
individually (Geer, 2012, 424-25). A strong attack on Romney through Ryan may provoke local
media to discuss and publicize Ryan’s controversial pastand presentstands on entitlements, such
as social security, as well as Romney’s words endorsing those stands. Indeed, we would issue
press releases with valuable information to local media to help them with them with their exposés,
such as when Paul Ryan called social security “collectivist” (Krugman, 2012). In this way, a
conversation can be justas effectively started by a third party as by the candidate himselfor
herself, without as much risk of a backlash.
Third, we want to transfer negative emotions to the Romney campaign by using highly
charged, emotional footage. According to scholars, negative emotions such as fear, anger and
anxiety can be transferred to an opponentthrough effective negative advertising (Franz, 2011, 124-
25). Although this field ofstudy is still emerging, fear appears to be especially successful in pulling
the voter towards the promoted candidate and away from the attacked candidate (Brader, 2006,
118; Franz, 2011, 124-25). Further, a recentstudy found that fear, even if unrelated to the
candidates themselves,causes voters to research candidates more and, ifthey agree, makes them
more likely to vote for them; angry voters, on the contrary, spentless time researching the
candidate and were less likely to vote atall (Parker and Isbell, 2010, 548-49). Therefore, it is our
contention that the Obama campaign could actually benefitfrom both the transfer of fear to seniors
who are worried about their entitlements and anger to seniors who believe the ad paints their
candidates, Romney and Ryan, in a bad light. Indeed, since anger may actually decrease turnout,
the Obama campaign will likely nothave to worry about accidentally mobilizing the opponent’s
supporters.viii
Fourth and finally, the race is very close, and many polls have Romney ahead in key

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battleground states like Florida, where the senior vote is key. In the case ofsuch close elections,
both candidates go on the attack (Franz, 2011, 123). Indeed, Obama only won Florida by only
236,000 votes—a gap that disaffected seniors could have easily erased (Leip, 2012). Indeed,
seniors (over 50) dissatisfied with Obama seem to already be supporting a move towards Obama,
where Romney is 13% ahead among likely voters 50 and over (CNN, 2012). This is not good news
for Obama since he lost voters 65 and over in Florida by only 8% in 2008ix (Greenberg and
Carville, 2009). Although these statistics do notcover the same age range (definitions ofa “senior”
citizen varies), this shows Obama’s clear weakness in the older adultAmerican demographic. This,
though, may be partof a broader trend where Democratic presidential candidates have lostthe
senior vote to Republican presidential candidates since the 2004 election (Alliance for Retired
Americans, The Senior Vote, 2012). Obama needs to convertor demobilize this demographic,
because they could make a crucial difference in a swing state like Florida.
Creating a negative ad has many risks, though. First, it may have the same effectas a positive
ad would while tarnishing the image ofthe candidate. Although the scholarly consensus is thatads
can move the electorate to a small degree, some scholars have thrown doubtas to whether attack
ads work better than positive ads (Franz, 2011, 119, 125; Geer, 2012, 422). If the candidate can
presenthappy ads telling the public how wonderful he or she is, this is obviously preferable,but an
incumbent candidate like Obama who is already well-known to the public does not need to be
“introduced” to the public (Wayne, 2012, 270-72). Second, an attack could create backlash and
make some voters less likely vote for Obama, because the ad is viewed as untruthful or unfair
(Franz, 2011, 123). Although our ad is modeledx after ads that only use the candidates actions or
words to attack them rather than make charges, many ofour focus group members who supported
Romney and Ryan became incensed atour use of their candidates’ words and believed the ad was
untrue. As noted above,though, this may not actually be a negative result, and theoretically, this

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anger, if demobilizing, could help the campaign.
III. Our target audience (demographic and location) and message
Our primary target audience is undecided likely voters and Romney supporters who are 55
and over in Florida. Voters above 50 turnout at the highestrate ofany population in the United
States and carry significant weight in presidential races—particularly close races like these
(Census Bureau, 2010). We also hope to castenough doubt among Romney supporters to drive
them into the undecided column or simply notvote, ifthey cannot supportObama (Buell and
Sigelman, 2008, 22; Franz, 2011, 131). Over 17% of Florida’s population is atleast 65, which gives
it the mostseniors ofany state (Brandon, 2012). It is also one ofthe closestraces in nation, even
though Obama carried the state in 2008 (Smith, 2008, 1A; CNN, 2012). This means these senior
voters will prove a pivotal voting block in deciding whether the state goes for Obama or Romney.
The message ofour ad is that you can’t trust Romney with Social Security and other
entitlements, because you can’ttrust Paul Ryan, who has spenta career trying to reform them. We
use shocking footage to transfer fear to elderly voters that Romney and Ryan could pull the social
safety net outfrom under them. We contrast Ryan’s callous behavior with words from Obama that
it isn’t “courageous” to make a plan that takes away benefits from vulnerable members ofsociety.
Since Voters are rational and can be persuaded by something that affects them, we believe this
message will resonantwith senior voters (Wayne, 2012, p. 225). Democrats typically stress social
issues, and Obama should leverage this association with them (Wayne, 2012, p. 219).
IV. Lessons from Our Focus Group and Broad empirical Data
We attempted to have a focus group that was statistically analogous to our target
audience, butdue to the fact we both live in very Republican and conservative areas ofNorth
Carolina, we were unable to do so. Over 70% ofour participants were Republican—almostdouble
the 36% among Florida registered voters (Florida Division ofElections, 2012). The remaining 30%

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were all Democrats (compared to 41% of Florida registered voters) with no unaffiliated voters, who
comprise 21% ofFlorida registered voters (Ibid). Although the mean age ofour male participants
was roughly the same as among adult males above 55 in Florida, our female participants were on
average 8 years younger.xi Finally, despite our efforts to enlistdiverse participants, over 80% ofour
participants were veterans—10 times the percentage ofveterans in Florida in the general
population (US Department ofVeterans Affairs, 2010). This was significant, because according to a
recentstudy by the Pew Research Center nearly half ofall veterans are conservative, compared to
37% in the public atlarge (Pew Research Center, 2011, 16). This persistent“military-civilian gap”
affects veterans’ political ideology significantly and certainly tipped our focus group towards the
right and created tremendous peer pressure to agree with its vocal conservative participants.
We did learn several things, nonetheless. Our ad evokes strong emotion, and itshould be
from a third-party, not the candidate directly, to reduce the probability ofbacklash—much like the
Swift Boat Veterans ads of2004. Also, we chose to soften our ad by opting for an ad that was not
purely negative and contrasted Obama with Romney through their own words—one candidate
defends the vulnerable, the other one supports the Ryan budget which ostensibly harms them.
Although our focus group did notyield strong empirical data itself, as we desired, it taught us
important lessons aboutthe nature offocus groups, such as the difficulty ofgetting a statistically
representative group, and the powerful reaction our ad would provoke, ifaired.
V. Conclusion
We believe our ad would prove to be effective,based on the scholarship thatexists concerning
attack ads. Obama clearly needs to either bring elderly voters to his side or demobilize them to
firmly capture Florida. This negative ad is one way to do this. If we were running the broader
campaign, we would certainly have an aggressive ground campaign and advertisements through
other media to augmentthis ad and ensure pro-Obama seniors vote.

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i Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October3,2012debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-3-2012-debate-transcript
ii Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October11,2012debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-11-2012-the-biden-
romney-vice-presidential-debate
iii Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October16,2012 debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-1-2012-the-second-
obama-romney-presidential-debate
iv Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October3,2012debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-3-2012-debate-transcript
v Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October11,2012debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-11-2012-the-biden-
romney-vice-presidential-debate
vi Accordingto ourown countfrom the officialtranscriptof October16,2012 debateon Commissionfor
PresidentialDebates’swebsite:http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-1-2012-the-second-
obama-romney-presidential-debate
vii Accordingto anOctober18, 2012CNNpollamongregisteredlikelyvoters (CNN, 2012).
viii Thecontentionthatangerlowersvoting propensitywouldseem to agreewith studies that shownegative
ads canhave a demobilizingeffectonthe electorate;even so, negative ads canalsoincreaseturnoutas
well (Franz, 2011,131).
ix Obamaalsolost the vote of seniors65 andover in Colorado,Florida,Missouri,Nevada,NorthCarolina,
andOhioby similarmargins (AllianceforRetiredAmericans,2008PresidentialElectionResultsin2012
BattlegroundStates, 2008).
x Our addis modeled afterads suchas the controversialObamaad“Understands”thatuse the candidates
ownactionsor wordsto attackthem without slogansor narrationto allowthe actionsorwords to “speak for
themselves”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj70XqOxptU&feature=plcp
xi Calculationsarebasedondata aboutthe Floridapopulationinthe2010Census:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

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Video sources
"Understands"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj70XqOxptU&feature=plcp
Image of Obama
http://secure.assets.bostatic.com/frontend/projects/splash-pages/201208-tests/potus-fullscreen.jpg
Image of elderly woman 1
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02153/A12TC2_2153727b.jpg
Image of elderly woman 2
http://blog.flextherapistceus.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Elderly-Patients-Risk-Infections.jpg
“Paul Ryan Helps Mitt Steal Social Security Medicare - private accounts for there friends”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp0u5RPxd-A
“Paul Ryan Thinks Cutting Your Medicare is a Joke”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMimxvF1dsM

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