news coverage of elections

1. Mark Peffley
PS 475

2.  Trends in traditional news coverage of
elections
 Thomas Patterson’s analysis of trends puts blame
squarely on the media, and many politicians share
his perspective.
 John Zaller turned Patterson’s analysis on its head
with alternative explanations for the exact same
trends.
 Current media coverage grows more negative
but sidelines the traditional news.

3. trivial and negative
Politicians love this book!

4. 1. Positive to Negative Coverage

5. Update to 2000

6. 2. Governing to Game Coverage

7. 3. Descriptive to Interpretive Coverage

8. 4.Trivial Coverage: Policy issues to reporters’ issues

9.  Change in party nominating rules in late 60s:
 More primaries and longer campaign
  down with parties, up with media, candidates
 Problems is that media coverage is dictated
more by Media values vs.Voters’ or
Candidates’ values
 Note:This is a popular explanation among
candidates
Patterson: Sources ofTrends in News
Coverage of Presidential Primaries

10.  W. Bush:
 “Ignore the “filter,” the fourth estate.
 News management strategies (later).
 Obama:
 NYT reporter James Riser:
“I think Obama hates the press. I think he doesn’t like the press
and he hates leaks.”
 President Obama SlamsThe Press: 'All It Does Is Feed Cynicism‘
 Justice Department's surveillance of reporters’ sources that are
leaking information.
 ChuckTodd, host of "MeetThe Press" :
Obama hates the rise ... of social media. He thinks that this sort
of buzzification — this isn’t just about BuzzFeed or Politico ... but
he thinks that this sort of coverage of political media has hurt
political discourse.”

12. Early Coverage of the 2008 Presidential Campaign
Here’s what the public SAYS it wants
WhatTopics the Public Wants Covered
More Less
Candidates’ position on issues 77% 17
Candidate debates 57% 32
Candidates’ personal backgrounds and experiences 55% 36
The candidates who are not front runners 55% 37
Sources of candidates’ campaign money 55% 35
Which candidate in leading in the latest polls 42% 45
Source: Pew Research Center for People and the Press
September 28 – October 1, 2007

13. Patterson: Consequences ofTrivial & Negative
Coverage are Severe

14. NegativeViews of Government and Politicians

15. AudienceTurned Off

16. NegativeViews of News Media

17. No! says Larry Sabato in Feeding Frenzy.

19. Evolution of news media coverage of politics
1. Lapdog journalism (1941-1966): reporting that served and
reinforced the political establishment: FDR, JFK.
2. Watchdog (1966-1974) scrutinized and checked the
behavior of political elites by undertaking independent
investigations into statements made by public officials:
LBJ, RMN.
3. Junkyard dog (1974 to present): reporting that is often and
harsh, aggressive, intrusive, where feeding frenzies flourish
and gossip reaches print:WJC.

21. BroaderTrends?

22. Generalized Confidence =
confidence toward 11 institutions,
excluding media

23. 1. Causal analysis
2. Near-exclusive focus on one actor as source of a dysfunctional system
Media
VotersCandidates
Let’s say you wrote a book
focusing mostly on
candidates or voters—what
are you likely to conclude?

24. A more realistic model of news coverage?
3 streets, all 2-way.
Media
VotersCandidates

25. The conflicting goals of 3 actors that influence traditional
news coverage of elections:
 Voters: “Don’t waste my time!” “Tell me only what I need to know!”
(based on “rational ignorance”)
 Candidates: (Use journalists to) “Get Our Story Out.”
 Journalists: Maximize their "voice" in the news (i.e., autonomy vs.
stenographer).
Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics

26.  Given the goals of voters and journalists, how can
we explain news coverage of:
 The horse-race of elections?
 Negative coverage of elections?
 Conflict vs. consensus?
 The relative lack of issue coverage?
Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics

27. An entire website
devoted to political
and sports predictions
that are amazingly
accurate and studied,
based on all the
available data (and
some astute
speculation).

28. •Rubio and Ted Cruz (and many
other candidates) went after the
mainstream media. That’s a smart
political move: Republicans,
and all Americans, don’t like the
media.
•Rubio and Cruz are competing
to out-Newt each other tonight.
In truth, Gingrich’s treatment of his ex-wife while she was seriously ill was relevant
to his resignation as Speaker in 1999, as the House prepared to impeach Clinton
for his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
Dennis Hastert was the 3rd speaker to get elected in 1999 because it was
presumed he had no skeletons in the closet.

29. Republicans and
independents have been
significantly less likely than
Democrats to trust the media.

30.  Like most media attacks, this one was imprecise, bombastic and un-fact-checkable, which
is precisely why quibbling about coverage is such a campaign mainstay.
 On the other hand, many questions from Fox, CNN and CNBC have been trivial and
negative. Ratings clearly influence this line of questioning when the whole country is tuning
in.
How about talking about the substantive
issues people care about?”
"Congressional Republicans, Democrats and the White
House are about to strike a compromise that would raise
the debt limit, prevent a government shutdown, and calm
financial markets of the fear that a Washington crisis is on
the way. Does your opposition to it show you're not the kind
of problem-solver that American voters want?" CNBC
anchor Carl Quintanilla asked the presidential candidate.

31.  Given the goals of journalists versus candidates,
how can we explain negative news coverage
—especially press-initiated negative coverage?
Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics

32. Problem with Patterson’s measure of media negativity is that it includes all
negativity from any source, including the opposition candidate.
Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics
Zaller’s measure only includes press-initiated negativity

33. Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics
Republicans were more often the target of press-initiated press coverage than
Democrats until 1996. Looks like a clear-cut case of political bias? But wait!

34. Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics
Campaigns have changed drastically. Candidates want to control
their message completely. Events now are completely scripted,
managed and controlled.
Harry Truman's 1948 Campaign Tour
Whistle Stop

35. Message control
 Candidate cancels major rally or event in order to avoid demonstrators (positive).
 Candidate refuses to debate major party opponent (positive).
 Candidate responds to specific opponent attacks, excluding debates (negative).
 Candidate takes questions from group or individual, where questioner(s) have been
screened or selected by the candidate himself. (Includes friendly talk show.) (positive).
 Candidate engages in exchange -- that is, back-and-forth discussion -- with
demonstrators or hecklers in crowd (negative).
Crowd exposure.
 Rally or speech in unfriendly territory, e.g.,Clinton addressesVFW Convention during
draft controversy (negative).
 Rally in controlled setting; audience screened or selected by campaign. (positive).
Willingness to debate
 Candidate refuses to debate with major party opponent. Positive.

36. Interview access
 Press conference for national press (negative).
 "Press availability;" i.e., candidate meets informally with group of reporters (negative).
 On his own initiative, candidate engages in light, non-substantive banter with reporters
(negative).
Interview restrictions
 No one in the campaign will respond to queries about sensitive issue, including press secretary.
(positive).
 In response to queries from reporters about sensitive issue, the candidate or press secretary
issues statement, but no one will verbally respond to questions. (positive).
 Candidate has interview with selected print journalist(s) with restrictions on content. (positive).
 Candidate refuses request from traveling journalists for press conference (positive).
Media exclusion
 Any public or quasi-public event from which reporters are excluded, e.g. fund-raisers. (positive).
 Campaign creates impediments to reporting of news (e.g., party workers hold up signs to block
picture-taking). (positive).

37. Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics
Mystery solved!What looked like partisan bias in press criticism is more
likely press chafing at Republican candidates’ stricter news management.

39.  SEP 5, 2008: McCain Campaign
PlansTo Keep Palin Away From
The Press
 July 06, 22015: Clinton Campaign
Defends Press Restrictions
 The campaign faced criticism from
journalists and Republicans alike over
the weekend when staffers used a
rope to confine reporters during an
Independence Day parade in Gorham,
N.H.
 The incident underscored Clinton’s
difficult relationship with members of
the media, who at times have gone
weeks without having the opportunity
to ask the Democratic frontrunner a
question.

41. Sarah Palin Discusses Russia With Katie Couric
SNL Tina Fey then Gov. Palin

44.  Referring to working-class voters in old
industrial towns decimated by job losses,
Obama said:
 "They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or
antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-
immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a
way to explain their frustrations."

45.  In Palm Beach, Fla., he walked contributors through a list of the federal
agencies he planned to shut down or combine, a level of specificity he had
not offered to voters.
 At a private fundraiser held at the Boca Raton home of controversial private
equity manager Marc Leder, when he doesn't know a camera's rolling,
Romney showed his disdain for Obama’s supporters.
 “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what.All right, there are 47 percent who are
with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a
responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it.That
that's an entitlement.And the government should give it to them.And they will vote for this president no matter
what…These are people who pay no income tax.”
 Romney went on: "[M]y job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal
responsibility and care for their lives."

53. Candidates are finding new ways to get their messages to the public—often with
little or no journalistic vetting, via:
a. Fewer journalists: Faced with shrinking revenue and dwindling audiences,
news organizations have slashed staffs and reduced coverage.
1) The PR Industry has filled the vacuum left by shrinking newsrooms
b. Social media:Candidates push negative messages about their opponents
through social media.
1) Obama made greater use of social media messaging than Romney, but the overall
conversation in social media was negative toward both men.
2) Social media is much more negative.
c. “Soft news” and entertainment are used more by candidates to control their
messages and avoid journalists.
d. Americans show signs of leaving a news outlet, citing less information

56.  Given the goals of voters and journalists, how can we
explain news coverage of:
 The horse-race of elections?
 Negative coverage of elections?
▪ Bad is stronger than good! [Across a variety of domains, “In health, learning, interpersonal
interactions, sexuality, major life decisions, and politics] events that yield negative outcomes have
a significantly greater psychological impact than equivalent events that yield positive outcomes.”
(p. 736 in “Judgment and Decision Making,” KathleenVohs and Mary Luce. 2010. Ch 20 in In Roy M.
Baumeister and Eli Finkel, AdvancedSocial Psychology.).
▪ Interest, attention, memory, and impact is greater for negative events.
 Conflict vs. consensus?
 The relative lack of issue coverage?
Zaller, ATheory of Media Politics